• 제목/요약/키워드: predicted meteorological data

검색결과 201건 처리시간 0.028초

해상풍력 구조물 설계를 위한 풍황 특성분석 (Analysis on wind condition characteristics for an offshore structure design)

  • 서현수;경남호;;김현구
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.262-267
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    • 2008
  • The long-term wind data are reconstructed from the short-term meteorological data to design the 4 MW offshore wind park which will be constructed at Woljeong-ri, Jeju island, Korea. Using two MCP (Measure-Correlate-Predict) models, the relative deviation of wind speed and direction from two neighboring reference weather stations can be regressed at each azimuth sector. The validation of the present method is checked about linear and matrix MCP models for the sets of measured data, and the characteristic wind turbulence is estimated from the ninety-percent percentile of standard deviation in the probability distribution. Using the Gumbel's model, the extreme wind speed of fifty-year return period is predicted by the reconstructed long-term data. The predicted results of this analysis concerning turbulence intensity and extreme wind speed are used for the calculation of fatigue life and extreme load in the design procedure of wind turbine structures at offshore wind farms.

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현업 국지모델기반 2018년 여름철 기상 1호 특별 고층관측자료의 관측 민감도 실험 (Observing Sensitivity Experiment Based on Convective Scale Model for Upper-air Observation Data on GISANG 1 (KMA Research Vessel) in Summer 2018)

  • 최다영;황윤정;이용희
    • 대기
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.17-30
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    • 2020
  • KMA performed the special observation program to provide information about severe weather and to monitor typhoon PRAPIROON using the ship which called the Gisang 1 from 29 June 2018 to 4 July 2018 (UTC). For this period, upper-air was observed 21 times with 6 hour intervals using rawinsonde in the Gisang 1. We investigated the impact of upper-air observation data from the Gisang 1 on the performance of the operational convective scale model (we called LDAPS). We conducted two experiments that used all observation data including upper-air observation data from the Gisang 1 (OPER) and without it (EXPR). For a typhoon PRAPIROON case, track forecast error of OPER was lower than EXPR until forecast 24 hours. The intensity forecast error of OPER for minimum sea level pressure was lower than EXPR until forecast 12 hours. The intensity forecast error of OPER for maximum wind speed was mostly lower than EXPR until forecast 30 hours. OPER showed good performance for typhoon forecast compared with EXPR at the early lead time. Two precipitation cases occurred in the south of the Korean peninsula due to the impact of Changma on 1 July and typhoon on 3 July. The location of main precipitation band predicted from OPER was closer to observations. As assimilating upper-air data observed in the Gisang 1 to model, it showed positive results in typhoon and precipitation cases.

특수일 분리와 예측요소 확장을 이용한 전력수요 예측 딥 러닝 모델 (Deep Learning Model for Electric Power Demand Prediction Using Special Day Separation and Prediction Elements Extention)

  • 박준호;신동하;김창복
    • 한국항행학회논문지
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.365-370
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 전력수요 패턴이 다른 평일과 특수일 데이터가 가지는 상관관계를 분석하여, 별도의 데이터 셋을 구축하고, 각 데이터 셋에 적합한 딥 러닝 네트워크를 이용하여, 전력수요예측 오차를 감소하는 방안을 제시하였다. 또한, 기본적인 전력수요 예측요소인 기상요소에 환경요소, 구분요소 등 다양한 예측요소를 추가하여 예측율을 향상하는 방안을 제시하였다. 전체데이터는 시계열 데이터 학습에 적합한 LSTM을 이용하여 전력수요예측을 하였으며, 특수일 데이터는 DNN을 이용하여 전력수요예측을 하였다. 실험결과 기상요소 이외의 예측요소 추가를 통해 예측율이 향상되었다. 전체 데이터 셋의 평균 RMSE는 LSTM이 0.2597이며, DNN이 0.5474로 LSTM이 우수한 예측율을 보였다. 특수일 데이터 셋의 평균 RMSE는 0.2201로 DNN이 LSTM보다 우수한 예측율을 보였다. 또한, 전체 데이터 셋의 LSTM의 MAPE는 2.74 %이며, 특수 일의 MAPE는 3.07 %를 나타냈다.

RNN-LSTM을 이용한 태양광 발전량 단기 예측 모델 (Short Term Forecast Model for Solar Power Generation using RNN-LSTM)

  • 신동하;김창복
    • 한국항행학회논문지
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.233-239
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    • 2018
  • 태양광 발전은 기상 상태에 따라 간헐적이기 때문에 태양광 발전의 효율과 경제성 향상을 위해 정확한 발전량 예측이 요구된다. 본 연구는 목포 기상대에서 예보하는 기상 데이터와 영암 태양광 발전소의 발전량 데이터를 이용하여 태양광 발전량 단기 딥러닝 예측모델을 제안하였다. 기상청은 기온, 강수량, 풍향, 풍속, 습도, 운량 등의 기상요소를 3일간 예보한다. 그러나 태양광 발전량 예측에 가장 중요한 기상요소인 일조 및 일사 일사량 예보하지 않는다. 제안 모델은 예보 기상요소를 이용하여, 일조 및 일사 일사량을 예측 하였다. 또한 발전량은 기상요소에 예측된 일조 및 일사 기상요소를 추가하여 예측하였다. 제안 모델의 발전량 예측 결과 DNN의 평균 RMSE와 MAE는 0.177과 0.095이며, RNN은 0.116과 0.067이다. 또한, LSTM은 가장 좋은 결과인 0.100과 0.054이다. 향후 본 연구는 다양한 입력요소의 결합으로 보다 향상된 예측결과를 도출할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

실시간 앙상블 가뭄전망정보 생산 체계 구축 및 평가 (Development & Evaluation of Real-time Ensemble Drought Prediction System)

  • 배덕효;안중배;김현경;김헌애;손경환;조세라;정의석
    • 대기
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate the system to produce the real-time ensemble drought prediction data. Ensemble drought prediction consists of 3 processes (meteorological outlook using the multi-initial conditions, hydrological analysis and drought index calculation) therefore, more processing time and data is required than that of single member. For ensemble drought prediction, data process time is optimized and hardware of existing system is upgraded. Ensemble drought data is estimated for year 2012 and to evaluate the accuracy of drought prediction data by using ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) analysis. We obtained 5 ensembles as optimal number and predicted drought condition for every tenth day i.e. 5th, 15th and 25th of each month. The drought indices used are SPI (Standard Precipitation Index), SRI (Standard Runoff Index), SSI (Standard Soil moisture Index). Drought conditions were determined based on results obtained for each ensemble member. Overall the results showed higher accuracy using ensemble members as compared to single. The ROC score of SRI and SSI showed significant improvement in drought period however SPI was higher in the demise period. The proposed ensemble drought prediction system can be contributed to drought forecasting techniques in Korea.

미세먼지 예보시스템 개발 (A Development of PM10 Forecasting System)

  • 구윤서;윤희영;권희용;유숙현
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제26권6호
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    • pp.666-682
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    • 2010
  • The forecasting system for Today's and Tomorrow's PM10 was developed based on the statistical model and the forecasting was performed at 9 AM to predict Today's 24 hour average PM10 concentration and at 5 PM to predict Tomorrow's 24 hour average PM10. The Today's forecasting model was operated based on measured air quality and meteorological data while Tomorrow's model was run by monitored data as well as the meteorological data calculated from the weather forecasting model such as MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological Model version 5). The observed air quality data at ambient air quality monitoring stations as well as measured and forecasted meteorological data were reviewed to find the relationship with target PM10 concentrations by the regression analysis. The PM concentration, wind speed, precipitation rate, mixing height and dew-point deficit temperature were major variables to determine the level of PM10 and the wind direction at 500 hpa height was also a good indicator to identify the influence of long-range transport from other countries. The neural network, regression model, and decision tree method were used as the forecasting models to predict the class of a comprehensive air quality index and the final forecasting index was determined by the most frequent index among the three model's predicted indexes. The accuracy, false alarm rate, and probability of detection in Tomorrow's model were 72.4%, 0.0%, and 42.9% while those in Today's model were 80.8%, 12.5%, and 77.8%, respectively. The statistical model had the limitation to predict the rapid changing PM10 concentration by long-range transport from the outside of Korea and in this case the chemical transport model would be an alternative method.

철도인프라용 태양광발전시스템 확대를 위한 기상정보 활용 발전량 예측 비교 연구 (Comparative Study to Predict Power Generation using Meteorological Information for Expansion of Photovoltaic Power Generation System for Railway Infrastructure)

  • 유복종;박찬배;이주
    • 한국철도학회논문집
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.474-481
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    • 2017
  • 국내에서 태양광 발전설비 설계 시 설계 단계에서의 태양광발전소의 발전량 예측은 국내 현장임에도 불구하고 PVsyst, PVWatts 등 해외 발전량 예측 프로그램과 해외 기상 자료를 이용하여 발전량을 예측하는 경우가 대부분을 차지하고 있는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 기상정보를 활용한 발전량 예측 비교 연구를 위하여 현재 운영중인 2개 지역의 국내 태양광발전소를 대상지로 선정하였다. 발전량 예측 프로그램인 PVsyst를 활용하여 Meteonorm 7.1과 NASA-SSE의 해외 기상정보를 이용한 발전량 예측값과 국내 기상청 (Korea Meteorology Administration) 기상정보를 활용한 발전량 예측 정확성을 비교하였다. 추가적으로, 기상자료 비교 분석을 통한 발전량 예측 개선 방안을 연구하고, 최종적으로 실제 발전량과의 비교 분석을 통해 기후요소가 고려된 태양광 발전량 예측 수정 모델을 제시하였다.

복잡지형에서의 WAsP 예측성 평가 (An Assessment of WAsP Prediction in a Complex Terrain)

  • 경남호;윤정은;허종철;장동순
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.39-47
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    • 2003
  • In order to test the predictability of the wind resource assessment computer code in our country a field experiment and prediction by WAsP has been compared. A field experiment has been performed in Songdang province, Jeju island, composed of sea, inland flat terrain, a high and a low slope craters. For this experiment, four meteorological towers have been installed at seashores, inland flat and on a crater. Wind resource at one site is predicted by WAsF with the meteorological data at the other three sites. The comparisons show that the WAsP preditions give better agreement with experimental data by adjusting the roughness descriptions.

기상환경에 따른 자동차 부품 도장의 불량률 예측 (Prediction of Defect Rate Caused by Meteorological Factors in Automotive Parts Painting)

  • 박상현;문준;황재정
    • 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보통신학회 2021년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.290-291
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    • 2021
  • 플라스틱 소재 자동차 부품의 도장 공정에서 불량은 다양한 원인과 현상으로 기인하는데, 온도, 습도, 미세먼지 등 기상환경 조건의 변화에 따라 불량률이 변화하는 연관성을 분석하였다. 실제 도장업체에서 1년 동안 수집한 종류별, 원인별 불량률과 기상환경의 상관성을 머신러닝 기법에 의해 학습하고 시험하여 특정의 기상환경에서 불량률을 예측하였다. 그 결과 실먼지로 인한 불량은 98%, 흐름에 대한 불량은 90%의 불량을 예측하여 모델의 성능을 입증하였다.

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군집분석을 이용한 국지해일모델 지역확장 (Regional Extension of the Neural Network Model for Storm Surge Prediction Using Cluster Analysis)

  • 이다운;서장원;윤용훈
    • 대기
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.259-267
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    • 2006
  • In the present study, the neural network (NN) model with cluster analysis method was developed to predict storm surge in the whole Korean coastal regions with special focuses on the regional extension. The model used in this study is NN model for each cluster (CL-NN) with the cluster analysis. In order to find the optimal clustering of the stations, agglomerative method among hierarchical clustering methods was used. Various stations were clustered each other according to the centroid-linkage criterion and the cluster analysis should stop when the distances between merged groups exceed any criterion. Finally the CL-NN can be constructed for predicting storm surge in the cluster regions. To validate model results, predicted sea level value from CL-NN model was compared with that of conventional harmonic analysis (HA) and of the NN model in each region. The forecast values from NN and CL-NN models show more accuracy with observed data than that of HA. Especially the statistics analysis such as RMSE and correlation coefficient shows little differences between CL-NN and NN model results. These results show that cluster analysis and CL-NN model can be applied in the regional storm surge prediction and developed forecast system.