• Title/Summary/Keyword: predicted meteorological data

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Effects Study on the Accuracy of Photochemical Modeling to MM5 Four Dimensional Data Assimilation Using Satellite Data (위성자료를 이용한 MM5 4차원자료동화가 광화학모델의 정확도에 미치는 영향 고찰)

  • Lee, Chong-Bum;Kim, Jea-Chul;Cheon, Tae-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.264-274
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    • 2009
  • Concentration of Air Quality Models (CMAQ) has a deep connection with emissions and wind fields. In particular the wind field is highly affected by local topography and plays an important role in transport and dispersion of contaminants from the pollution sources. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of interpolation on Air quality model. This study was designed to evaluate enhancement of MM5 and CMAQ predictions by using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA), the SONDE data and the national meteorological station and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The alternative meteorological fields predicted with and without MODIS data were used to simulate spatial and temporal variations of ozone in combined with CMAQ on June 2006. The result of this study indicated that data assimilation using MODIS data provided an attractive method for generating realistic meteorological fields and dispersion fields of ozone in the Korea peninsular, because MODIS data in 10 km domain are grid horizontally and vertically. In order to ensure the success of Air quality model, it is necessary to FDDA using MODIS data.

A Study on the Applcation of Small Wind Power System using Meteorological Simulation Data in Pusan (기상수치모의 자료를 이용한 부산지역의 소형풍력발전 시스템 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, KwiOk;Lee, KangYeol;Kang, Dongbae;Park, Changhyoun;Jung, Woo-Sik
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1085-1093
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    • 2014
  • We investigate the amount of potential electricity energy generated by wind power in Busan metropolitan area, using the mesoscale meteorological model WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting), combined with small wind power generators. The WRF modeling has successfully simulated meteorological characteristics over the urban areas, and showed statistical significant to predict the amount of wind energy generation. The highest amount of wind power energy has been predicted at the coastal area, followed by at riverbank and upland, depending on predicted spatial distributions of wind speed. The electricity energy prediction method in this study is expected to be used for plans of wind farm constructions or the power supplies.

Characteristics of regional scale atmospheric dispersion around Ki-Jang research reactor using the Lagrangian Gaussian puff dispersion model

  • Choi, Geun-Sik;Lim, Jong-Myoung;Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny;Kim, Ki-Hyun;Lee, Jin-Hong
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.68-79
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    • 2018
  • The Ki-Jang research reactor (KJRR), a new research reactor in Korea, is being planned to fulfill multiple purposes. In this study, as an assessment of the environmental radiological impact, we characterized the atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radioactive materials released by an unexpected incident at KJRR using the weather research and forecasting-mesoscale model interface program-California Puff (WRF-MMIF-CALPUFF) model system. Based on the reproduced three-dimensional gridded meteorological data obtained during a 1-year period using WRF, the overall meteorological data predicted by WRF were in agreement with the observed data, while the predicted wind speed data were slightly overestimated at all stations. Based on the CALPUFF simulation of atmospheric dispersion (${\chi}/Q$) and deposition (D/Q) factors, relatively heavier contamination in the vicinity of KJRR was observed, and the prevailing land breeze wind in the study area resulted in relatively higher concentration and deposition in the off-shore area sectors. We also compared the dispersion characteristics between the PAVAN (atmospheric dispersion of radioactive release from nuclear power plants) and CALPUFF models. Finally, the meteorological conditions and possibility of high doses of radiation for relatively higher hourly ${\chi}/Q$ cases were examined at specific discrete receptors.

Comparative Analysis of Observation and NWP Data of Downslope Windstorm Cases during 3-Dimensional Meteorological Observation Project in Yeongdong Region of Gangwon province, South Korea in 2020 (2020 강원영동 공동 입체기상관측 기간 강풍 사례에 대한 관측자료와 수치모델 비교 분석)

  • Kwon, Soon-Beom;Park, Se-Taek
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.395-404
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    • 2021
  • In order to investigate downslope windstorm by using more detailed observation, we observed 6 cases at 3 sites - Inje, Yongpyeong, and Bukgangneung - during "3-D Meteorological Observation Project in Yeongdong region of Gangwon province, South Korea in 2020." The results from analysis of the project data were as follows. First, AWS data showed that a subsidence inversion layer appeared in 800~700 hPa on the windward side and 900~850 hPa on the leeward side. Second, before strong wind occurred, the inversion layer had descended to about 880~800 hPa. Third, with mountain wave breaking, downslope wind was intensified at the height of 2~3 km above sea level. After the downslope wind began to descend, the subsidence inversion layer developed. When the subsidence inversion layer got close to the ground, wind peak occurred. In general, UM (Unified Model) GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation Prediction System) have had negative bias in wind speed around peak area of Taebaek mountain range, and positive bias in that of East Sea coast area. The stronger wind blew, the larger the gap between observed and predicted wind speed by GDAPS became. GDAPS predicted strong p-velocity at 0600 LST 25 Apr 2020 (4th case) and weak p-velocity at 2100 LST 01 Jun 2020 (6th case) on the lee-side of Taebaek mountain range near Yangyang. As hydraulic jump theory was proved, which is known as a mechanism of downslope windstorm in Yeongdong region, it was confirmed that there is a relationship between p-velocity of lee-side and wind speed of eastern slope of Taebaek mountain range.

Performance of MTM in 2006 Typhoon Forecast (이동격자태풍모델을 이용한 2006년 태풍의 진로 및 강도 예측성능 평가)

  • Kim, Ju-Hye;Choo, Gyo-Myung;Kim, Baek-Jo;Won, Seong-Hee;Kwon, H. Joe
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.207-216
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    • 2007
  • The Moving-nest Typhoon Model (MTM) was installed on the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)'s CRAY X1E in 2006 and started its test operation in August 2006 to provide track and intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones. In this study, feasibility of the MTM forecast is compared with the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the KMA and the operational typhoon forecast models in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), from the sixth tropical cyclone to the twentieth in 2006. Forecast skills in terms of the storm position error of the two KMA models were comparable, but MTM showed a slightly better ability. While both GDAPS and MTM produced larger errors than JMA models in track forecast, the predicted intensity was much improved by MTM, making it comparable to the JMA's typhoon forecast model. It is believed that the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) bogus initialization method in MTM improves the ability to forecast typhoon intensity.

Studies on the Predictability of Heavy Rainfall Using Prognostic Variables in Numerical Model (모델 예측변수들을 이용한 집중호우 예측 가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Min;Jee, Joon-Beom;Min, Jae-sik;Lee, Yong-Hee;Chung, Jun-Seok;You, Cheol-Hwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.495-508
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    • 2016
  • In order to determine the prediction possibility of heavy rainfall, a variety of analyses was conducted by using three-dimensional data obtained from Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) re-analysis data. Strong moisture convergence occurring around the time of the heavy rainfall is consistent with the results of previous studies on such continuous production. Heavy rainfall occurred in the cloud system with a thick convective clouds. The moisture convergence, temperature and potential temperature advection showed increase into the heavy rainfall occurrence area. The distribution of integrated liquid water content tended to decrease as rainfall increased and was characterized by accelerated convective instability along with increased buoyant energy. In addition, changes were noted in the various characteristics of instability indices such as K-index (KI), Showalter Stability Index (SSI), and lifted index (LI). The meteorological variables used in the analysis showed clear increases or decreases according to the changes in rainfall amount. These rapid changes as well as the meteorological variables changes are attributed to the surrounding and meteorological conditions. Thus, we verified that heavy rainfall can be predicted according to such increase, decrease, or changes. This study focused on quantitative values and change characteristics of diagnostic variables calculated by using numerical models rather than by focusing on synoptic analysis at the time of the heavy rainfall occurrence, thereby utilizing them as prognostic variables in the study of the predictability of heavy rainfall. These results can contribute to the identification of production and development mechanisms of heavy rainfall and can be used in applied research for prediction of such precipitation. In the analysis of various case studies of heavy rainfall in the future, our study result can be utilized to show the development of the prediction of severe weather.

A Rainfall Forecasting Model for the Ungaged Point of Meteorological Data (기상 자료 미계측 지점의 강우 예보 모형)

  • Lee, Jae Hyoung;Jeon, Ir Kweon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.307-316
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    • 1994
  • The rainfall forecasting model of the short term is improved at the point where meterological data is not gaged. In this study, the adopted model is based on the assumptions for simulation model of rainfall process, meteorological homogeneousness, prediction and estimation of meteorological data. A Kalman Filter technique is used for rainfall forecasting. In the existing models, the equation of the model is non-linear type with regard to rainfall rate, because hydrometer size distribution (HSD) depends on rainfall intensity. The equation is linearized about rainfall rate as HSD is formulated by the function of the water storage in the cloud. And meteorological input variables are predicted by emprical model. It is applied to the storm events over Taech'ong Dam area. The results show that root mean square error between the forecasted and the observed rainfall intensity is varing from 0.3 to 1.01 mm/hr. It is suggested that the assumptions of this study be reasonable and our model is useful for the short term rainfall forecasting at the ungaged point of the meteorological data.

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Evaluation of the CALPUFF Model Using Improved Meteorological Fields in Complex Terrain of East Sea Coast (동해안의 복잡지형에서 기상장 개선에 따른 CALPUFF 모델의 평가)

  • Lee, Chong-Bum;Kim, Jea-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2009
  • Donghae city is one of the most representative cement industrial city in Korea. The area is faced with the East Sea to the East and with high montane region of Tae-Back mountain range to the West. Many pollutant sources of air pollution are located near the coast, but the largest point sources of the region are located at the bottom of the mountain area in Donghae city. The local wind is highly affected by local topography and plays an important role in transport and dispersion of contaminants from the pollution sources. This study was designed to evaluate enhancement of MM5 predictions by using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA), the SONDE data and the national meteorological station, data only. The alternative meteorological fields predicted with and without FDDA were used to simulate spatial and temporal variations of NOx in combined with Atmospheric Dispersion Models (CALPUFF). For the modeling domain, the alternative meteorological fields with 1.1 km spatial resolution were interpolated to the CALMET with 0.5 km resolution. The vertical layers set to have 35 and 12 layers for MM5 and CALPUFF, respectively. MM5 with the FDDA did not resulted in significant improvement of meteorological field prediction in Donghae region, which is primarily because of complex geography and wind scheme. The result of CALPUFF, however, showed reduction of uncertainty errors by using the interpolation scheme of the actual measurement data.

Marine Meteorological Characteristics in 2006-2007 year near the Korean Peninsular : Wind Waves (2006-2007년 한반도 인근 해양기상 특성 : 파랑)

  • You, Sung Hyup
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2009
  • Analysis has been made on the wind wave characteristics in terms of significant wave height ($H_s$) near the Korean marginal seas in the 2006 - 2007 year using the third generation wave model, WAVEWATCH - III model. In order to evaluate its performance, its results were compared with the observed data using KMA ocean buoy. The two year average RMSE between modeled and observed Hs shows reasonably small value of about 0.37 m. The accuracy of predicted values in the year 2007 is increased mainly due to finer model grid size and better accurate wind field. The model used in this study predicts very well the characteristics ($H_s$) of wind waves near the Korean Peninsular. Simulated monthly wind waves show the evident seasonal variations due to Typhoons in summer season. When Typhoons approach to Korean Peninsular, the accuracy of wind waves predictions is lower than that of annual mean value.

A Study on The Effects of Long-Term Tidal Constituents on Surge Forecasting Along The Coasts of Korean Peninsula (한국 연안의 장주기 조석성분이 총 수위 예측에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jiha, Kim;Pil-Hun, Chang;Hyun-Suk, Kang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.222-232
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    • 2022
  • In this study we investigated the characteristics of long-term tidal constituents based on 30 tidal gauge data along the coasts of Korea and its the effects on total water level (TWL) forecasts. The results show that the solar annual (Sa) and semiannual (Ssa) tides were dominant among long-term tidal constituents, and they are relatively large in western coast of Korea peninsula. To investigate the effect of long-term tidal constituents on TWL forecasts, we produced predicted tides in 2021 with and without long-term tidal constituents. The TWL forecasts with and without long-term tidal constituents are then calculated by adding surge forecasts into predicted tides. Comparing with the TWL without long-term tidal constituents, the results with long-term tidal constituents reveals small bias in summer and relatively large negative bias in winter. It is concluded that the large error found in winter generally caused by double-counting of meteorological factors in predicted tides and surge forecasts. The predicted surge for 2021 based on the harmonic analysis shows seasonality, and it reduces the large negative bias shown in winter when it subtracted from the TWL forecasts with long-term tidal constituents.