Atmosphere (대기)

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Studies on the Predictability of Heavy Rainfall Using Prognostic Variables in Numerical Model

모델 예측변수들을 이용한 집중호우 예측 가능성에 관한 연구

  • Jang, Min (WISE Projects, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) ;
  • Jee, Joon-Beom (WISE Projects, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) ;
  • Min, Jae-sik (WISE Projects, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) ;
  • Lee, Yong-Hee (Numerical Model Development Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Chung, Jun-Seok (Climate Science Bureau, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • You, Cheol-Hwan (Atmospheric Environmental Research Institute, Pukyong National University)
  • 장민 (한국외국어대학교 차세대도시농림융합기상사업단) ;
  • 지준범 (한국외국어대학교 차세대도시농림융합기상사업단) ;
  • 민재식 (한국외국어대학교 차세대도시농림융합기상사업단) ;
  • 이용희 (국립기상과학원 수치모델연구부) ;
  • 정준석 (기상청 기후과학국) ;
  • 유철환 (부경대학교 대기환경연구소)
  • Received : 2016.05.30
  • Accepted : 2016.10.25
  • Published : 2016.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

In order to determine the prediction possibility of heavy rainfall, a variety of analyses was conducted by using three-dimensional data obtained from Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) re-analysis data. Strong moisture convergence occurring around the time of the heavy rainfall is consistent with the results of previous studies on such continuous production. Heavy rainfall occurred in the cloud system with a thick convective clouds. The moisture convergence, temperature and potential temperature advection showed increase into the heavy rainfall occurrence area. The distribution of integrated liquid water content tended to decrease as rainfall increased and was characterized by accelerated convective instability along with increased buoyant energy. In addition, changes were noted in the various characteristics of instability indices such as K-index (KI), Showalter Stability Index (SSI), and lifted index (LI). The meteorological variables used in the analysis showed clear increases or decreases according to the changes in rainfall amount. These rapid changes as well as the meteorological variables changes are attributed to the surrounding and meteorological conditions. Thus, we verified that heavy rainfall can be predicted according to such increase, decrease, or changes. This study focused on quantitative values and change characteristics of diagnostic variables calculated by using numerical models rather than by focusing on synoptic analysis at the time of the heavy rainfall occurrence, thereby utilizing them as prognostic variables in the study of the predictability of heavy rainfall. These results can contribute to the identification of production and development mechanisms of heavy rainfall and can be used in applied research for prediction of such precipitation. In the analysis of various case studies of heavy rainfall in the future, our study result can be utilized to show the development of the prediction of severe weather.

Keywords

References

  1. Clark, A. J., J. Gao, P. T. Marsh, T. Smith, J. S. Kain, J. Correia Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2013: Tornado path length forecasts from 2010 to 2011 using ensemble updraft helicity. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 387-407. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00038.1
  2. Davies-Jones, R., 1984: Streamwise vorticity: The origin of updraft rotation in supercell storms. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 2991-3006. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1984)041<2991:SVTOOU>2.0.CO;2
  3. Davies-Jones, R., D. W. Burgess, and M. Foster, 1990: Test of helicity as a forecast parameter. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, AB, Canada, 588-592.
  4. Djuric, D., 1994: Weather Analysis, Prentice-Hall Inc., 304 pp.
  5. Doswell III, C. A., and E. N. Rasmussen, 1994: The effect of neglecting the virtual temperature correction on CAPE calculations. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 625-629. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0625:TEONTV>2.0.CO;2
  6. Edwards, R., and R. L. Thompson, 1998: Nationwide comparison of hail size with WSR-88D vertically integrated liquid water (VIL) and derived thermodynamic sounding data. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 277-285. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0277:NCOHSW>2.0.CO;2
  7. George, J. J., 1960: Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics. Academic Press, 673 pp.
  8. Greene, D. R., and R. A. Clark, 1972: Vertically integrated liquid water-a new analysis tool. Mon. Wea. Rev., 100, 548-552. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0548:VILWNA>2.3.CO;2
  9. Huschke, R. E., 1970: Cloud height. In T. S. Glickman 2nd Ed., Glossary of Meteorology. American Meteorological Society. Retrieved from August 24, 2013.
  10. Jang, M., C. H. You, J. B. Jee, S. H. Park, S. I. Kim, and Y. J. Choi, 2016: Three-dimensional analysis of heavy rainfall using KLAPS re-analysis data. Atmosphere, 26, 97-109 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.097
  11. Jung, S. P., S. R. In, H. W. Kim, J. K. Sim, S. O. Han, and B. C. Choi, 2015: Classification of atmospheric vertical environment associated with heavy rainfall using long-term radiosonde observational data, 1997-2013. Atmosphere, 25, 611-622 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.4.611
  12. Kato, T., 1998: Numerical simulation of the band-shaped torrential rain observed over southern Kyushu, Japan on 1 August 1993. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 76, 97-123. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.76.1_97
  13. Kim, D. W., Y. H. Kim, K. H. Kim, S. S. Shin, D. K. Kim, Y. J. Hwang, J. I. Park, D. Y. Choi, and Y. H. Lee, 2012: Atmospheric vertical structure of heavy rainfall system during the 2010 summer intensive observation period over Seoul metropolitan area. J. Korean Earth Sci., 33, 148-161. https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2012.33.2.148
  14. Kim, K. H., Y. H. Kim, and D. E. Chang, 2009: The analysis of Changma structure using radiosonde observational data from KEOP-2007: Part II. The dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of Changma in 2007. Atmosphere, 19, 297-307 (in Korean with English abstract).
  15. Kim, Y. C., and S. J. Ham, 2009: Heavy rainfall prediction using convective instability index. J. Korean Soc. Aviat. Aeronaut., 17, 17-23.
  16. KMA, 2011: Forecasting techniques caught in the hand. Instability Index. No. 3, 2 pp (in Korean).
  17. Kwon, T. Y., J. S. Kim, and B. G. Kim, 2013: Comparison of the properties of Yeongdong and Yeongseo heavy rain. Atmosphere, 23, 245-264 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2013.23.3.245
  18. Leftwich, P. W., 1990: On the use of helicity in operational assessment of severe local storm potential. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, AB, Canada, 269-274.
  19. Maddox, R. A., 1979: A methodology for forecasting heavy convective precipitation and flash flooding. Nat. Wea. Dig., 4, 30-42.
  20. NIMS, 2009: Development of very short-range prediction system for severe weather. National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 277 pp (in Korean).
  21. NIMS, 2012: Improvement of prediction skills in very short, short and mid-term for severe weather (IV). National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 86 pp (in Korean).
  22. Park, C. G., and T. Y. Lee, 2008: Structure of mesoscale heavy precipitation systems originated from the changma front. Atmosphere, 18, 317-338 (in Korean with English abstract).
  23. Rasmussen, E. N., and D. O. Blanchard, 1998: A baseline climatology of sounding-derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1148-1164. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<1148:ABCOSD>2.0.CO;2
  24. Richardson, Y. P., K. K. Droegemeier, and R. P. Davies-Jones, 2007: The influence of horizontal environmental variability on numerically simulated convective storms. Part I: Variations in vertical shear. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3429-3455. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3463.1
  25. Showalter, A. K., 1953: A stability index for thunderstorm forecasting. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 34, 250-252.
  26. Spellman, F. R., 2013: The handbook of Meteorology. Scarecrow Press, 33 pp.
  27. Thompson, R. L., R. Edwards, J. A. Hart, K. L. Elmore, and P. Markowski, 2003: Close proximity soundings within supercell environments obtained from the rapid update cycle. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1243-1261. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1243:CPSWSE>2.0.CO;2
  28. Thompson, R. L., C. M. Mead, and R. Edwards, 2007: Effective storm-relative helicity and bulk shear in supercell thunderstorm environments. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 102-115. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF969.1

Cited by

  1. Characteristics of Sea Surface Temperature Variation during the High Impact Weather over the Korean Peninsula vol.40, pp.3, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2019.40.3.240