• Title/Summary/Keyword: pre-prediction

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The Effectiveness of Accounting Information in Military Construction Contracts under the Qualification Assessment System (적격심사낙찰제 계약에서 회계정보의 유용성에 관한 연구)

  • Hur, Hyung
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.49-70
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    • 2011
  • This paper re-evaluated the research on the accounting information's effectiveness in military construction contracts, questioning the former research results on the central army's construction contract that was under the Qualification Assessment System, especially concerning the relations between the accounting information and the bidding ratios as well as the relations between the bidding rates and the defect rates, which targeted between 1 to 10 billions civil engineering, construction, electricity, telecommunication, and environment work types. Unlike the previous results, the relationship between the accounting information and the bidding rates was shown to be considerably limited that the bidding ratio could not be identified through the accounting information, while it could discern the relations with the defect rates. Furthermore, the proven results did not support the hypothesis that the differences in bidding rates could affect the defect ratio. However, through the prediction model of bidding and defect ratios, we could identity the accounting variables that influenced the ratios. Additionally through the results regarding the non-financial indexes in the Pre-Qualification items, the weight on these indexes could be adjusted. In conclusion, the research results has given us new understanding of the problems in the Qualification Assessment System which accounts for the majority of the current military construction contracts and provide validity on the government's expanded implementation of the Lowest Price Award System.

Exploratory Research on Automating the Analysis of Scientific Argumentation Using Machine Learning (머신 러닝을 활용한 과학 논변 구성 요소 코딩 자동화 가능성 탐색 연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-Geon;Ha, Heesoo;Hong, Hun-Gi;Kim, Heui-Baik
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.219-234
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we explored the possibility of automating the process of analyzing elements of scientific argument in the context of a Korean classroom. To gather training data, we collected 990 sentences from science education journals that illustrate the results of coding elements of argumentation according to Toulmin's argumentation structure framework. We extracted 483 sentences as a test data set from the transcription of students' discourse in scientific argumentation activities. The words and morphemes of each argument were analyzed using the Python 'KoNLPy' package and the 'Kkma' module for Korean Natural Language Processing. After constructing the 'argument-morpheme:class' matrix for 1,473 sentences, five machine learning techniques were applied to generate predictive models relating each sentences to the element of argument with which it corresponded. The accuracy of the predictive models was investigated by comparing them with the results of pre-coding by researchers and confirming the degree of agreement. The predictive model generated by the k-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN) demonstrated the highest degree of agreement [54.04% (${\kappa}=0.22$)] when machine learning was performed with the consideration of morpheme of each sentence. The predictive model generated by the KNN exhibited higher agreement [55.07% (${\kappa}=0.24$)] when the coding results of the previous sentence were added to the prediction process. In addition, the results indicated importance of considering context of discourse by reflecting the codes of previous sentences to the analysis. The results have significance in that, it showed the possibility of automating the analysis of students' argumentation activities in Korean language by applying machine learning.

Determination of Nitrogen in Fresh and Dry Leaf of Apple by Near Infrared Technology (근적외 분석법을 응용한 사과의 생잎과 건조잎의 질소분석)

  • Zhang, Guang-Cai;Seo, Sang-Hyun;Kang, Yeon-Bok;Han, Xiao-Ri;Park, Woo-Churl
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.259-265
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    • 2004
  • A quicker method was developed for foliar analysis in diagnosis of nitrogen in apple trees based on multivariate calibration procedure using partial least squares regression (PLSR) and principal component regression (PCR) to establish the relationship between reflectance spectra in the near infrared region and nitrogen content of fresh- and dry-leaf. Several spectral pre-processing methods such as smoothing, mean normalization, multiplicative scatter correction (MSC) and derivatives were used to improve the robustness and performance of the calibration models. Norris first derivative with a seven point segment and a gap of six points on MSC gave the best result of partial least squares-1 PLS-1) model for dry-leaf samples with root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) equal to $0.699g\;kg^{-1}$, and that the Savitzky-Golay first derivate with a seven point convolution and a quadratic polynomial on MSC gave the best results of PLS-1 model for fresh-samples with RMSEP of $1.202g\;kg^{-1}$. The best PCR model was obtained with Savitzky-Golay first derivative using a seven point convolution and a quadratic polynomial on mean normalization for dry leaf samples with RMSEP of $0.553g\;kg^{-1}$, and obtained with the Savitzky-Golay first derivate using a seven point convolution and a quadratic polynomial for fresh samples with RMSEP of $1.047g\;kg^{-1}$. The results indicate that nitrogen can be determined by the near infrared reflectance (NIR) technology for fresh- and dry-leaf of apple.

Regional Estimation of Site-specific Seismic Responses at Gyeongju by Building GIS-based Geotechnical Information System (GIS 기반의 지반 정보 시스템 구축을 통한 경주 지역 부지고유 지진 응답의 지역적 평가)

  • Sun, Chang-Guk;Chung, Choon-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.38-50
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    • 2008
  • The site-specific seismic responses and corresponding seismic hazards are influenced mainly by the subsurface geologic and geotechnical dynamic characteristics. To estimate reliably the seismic responses in this study, a geotechnical information system (GTIS) within GIS framework was developed by introducing new concepts, which consist of the extended area containing the study area and the additional site visit for acquiring surface geo-knowledge data. The GIS-based GTIS was built for Gyeongju area, which has records of abundant historical seismic hazards reflecting the high potential of future earthquakes. At the study area, Gyeongju, intensive site investigations and pre-existing geotechnical data collections were performed and the site visits were additionally carried out for assessing geotechnical characteristics and shear wave velocity ($V_S$) representing dynamic property. Within the GTIS for Gyeongju area, the spatially distributed geotechnical layers and $V_S$ in the entire study area were reliably predicted from the site investigation data using the geostatistical kriging method. Based on the spatial geotechnical layers and $V_S$ predicted within the GTIS, a seismic zoning map on site period ($T_G$) from which the site-specific seismic responses according to the site effects can be estimated was created across the study area of Gyeongju. The spatial $T_G$ map at Gyeongju indicated seismic vulnerability of two- to five-storied buildings. In this study, the seismic zonation based on $T_G$ within the GIS-based GTIS was presented as regional efficient strategy for seismic hazard prediction and mitigation.

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Study on Diagnosis by Facial Shapes and Signs as a Disease-Prediction Data for a Construction of the Ante-disease Pattern Diagno-Therapeutic System - Focusing on Gallbladder's versus Bladder's Body and Masculine versus Feminine Shape - (미병학(未病學) 체계구축을 위한 질병예측자(疾病豫側子)로서의 형상진단연구 - 담방광체(膽膀胱體)와 남녀형상(男女形象)을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jong-Wan;Kim, Kyung-Chul;Lee, Yang-Tae;Lee, In-Seon;Kim, Kyu-Kon;Chi, Gyoo-Yang
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.540-547
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    • 2009
  • There needs disease-predictable signs in order to enable preventive diagnosis and therapy. Then traditional Chinese medicine applies various medical diagnostic equipments used in western medicine to diagnosing sub-healthy state. But such data are not originated from inherent oriental medicine, and not obtained easily in ordinary clinical practice. This paper is to provide synopsis of the ante-disease diagno-therapeutics partly and to show predictable data based on the facial shapes and signs, especially of gall bladder's versus bladder's body and masculine versus feminine shape. Ante-disease means not only the complete healthy state, but also the state unseen any symptoms in macrographically in the course of outbreak of disease. It contains two stages, first one is the former state of disease and second one is untransmitted state of disease. The patterns of ante-disease consist of latent disease, pre-disease, transmission type like senescent syndrome, abnormal reactive syndrome(變證), syndrome of transmission and transmutation. The classification with gall bladder and bladder type manifests the differences of shape, color and size of each organ in comparison of the universal and standard figures of the human being. On the other hand, the classification with masculine and feminine shape contrasts the innate sexual difference and the shape, characteristics originated from in itself. These two classification theories have their own pathologic types and syndrome types with each disease so that disease-predictable data can be constructed based on such a relationship. In addition, this diagnostic method by facial shapes and signs is able to be applied to whole stages from prenatal to present state of disease even if the cause and inducement are not clear. Ante-disease diagno-theraputic system by Gall Bladder's versus Bladder's Body and Masculine versus Feminine Shape is getting more important in the chronic and internal disease in comparison of the acute and traumatic disease. So this study is able to make up for the limit of diagnosis on ante-disease in the field of oriental medicine clinic.

Prediction of Potential Habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) Considering Dispersal Ability Under Climate Change (분산 능력을 고려한 기후변화에 따른 붉가시나무의 잠재서식지 분포변화 예측연구)

  • Shin, Man-Seok;Seo, Changwan;Park, Seon-Uk;Hong, Seung-Bum;Kim, Jin-Yong;Jeon, Ja-Young;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.291-306
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    • 2018
  • This study was designed to predict potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) in Korean Peninsula considering its dispersal ability under climate change. We used a species distribution model (SDM) based on the current species distribution and climatic variables. To reduce the uncertainty of the SDM, we applied nine single-model algorithms and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to simulate the distribution of Japanese evergreen oak in 2050 and 2070. The final future potential habitat was determined by considering whether it will be dispersed from the current habitat. The dispersal ability was determined using the Migclim by applying three coefficient values (${\theta}=-0.005$, ${\theta}=-0.001$ and ${\theta}=-0.0005$) to the dispersal-limited function and unlimited case. All the projections revealed potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak will be increased in Korean Peninsula except the RCP 4.5 in 2050. However, the future potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak was found to be limited considering the dispersal ability of this species. Therefore, estimation of dispersal ability is required to understand the effect of climate change and habitat distribution of the species.

Risk-Based Performance Evaluation and Prediction Tool by Characterizing Construction Projects in Pre-Project Planning (초기 단계 프로젝트 특성을 고려한 리스크 평가 및 예측 툴 개발)

  • Shin, Kang-Yong;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.168-175
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    • 2008
  • Project risk factors are major triggers in cost performance in construction projects. Both owners and contractors are highly concerned in managing their risks in earlier times. As such, it is needed to provide a robust risk evaluation methodology in identifying and assessing the potential risks before project execution. In previous research, risk identification was conducted only in specific phases, i. e., design, procurement, construction. Therefore, the comprehensive approach in risk management was limited and their quantifying method was not well-defined. Since the benefit of planning in earlier times are maximized compared to later times, the risk management should be implemented in earlier planning stage. This study provide a new risk evaluation method by incorporating previous research and extensive literature review. By quantifying each risk factor from an extensive industry survey, the proposed tool can enhance the reliability of each factor weight and also the weights are categorized from a various perspectives, i.e., owners, contractors, lager-scale company, smaller-scale company, building projects. The proposed tool can be also useful in deciding on whether to proceed a particular project and How much the project contingency would be set aside in project execution. The study findings can also expedite the risk management procedure in a more systematic approach.

Axial Load Capacity Prediction of Single Piles in Clay and Sand Layers Using Nonlinear Load Transfer Curves (비선형 하중전이법에 의한 점토 및 모래층에서 파일의 지지력 예측)

  • Kim, Hyeongjoo;Mission, Joseleo;Song, Youngsun;Ban, Jaehong;Baeg, Pilsoon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2008
  • The present study has extended OpenSees, which is an open-source software framework DOS program for developing applications to idealize geotechnical and structural problems, for the static analysis of axial load capacity and settlement of single piles in MS Windows environment. The Windows version of OpenSees as improved by this study has enhanced the DOS version from a general purpose software program to a special purpose program for driven and bored pile analysis with additional features of pre-processing and post-processing and a user friendly graphical interface. The method used in the load capacity analysis is the numerical methods based on load transfer functions combined with finite elements. The use of empirical nonlinear T-z and Q-z load transfer curves to model soil-pile interaction in skin friction and end bearing, respectively, has been shown to capture the nonlinear soil-pile response under settlement due to load. Validation studies have shown the static load capacity and settlement predictions implemented in this study are in fair agreement with reference data from the static loading tests.

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Prediction of Surgical Anesthesia in Medetomidine/Tiletamine/Zolazepam Anesthetized Dogs using Electroencephalography (Medetomidine/Tiletamine/Zolazepam 마취견에서 뇌전도를 이용한 외과마취의 평가)

  • Jang, Hwan-Soo;Kim, Jung-Eun;Lim, Jae-Hyun;Kwon, Young-Sam;Lee, Maan-Gee;Jang, Kwang-Ho
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.540-545
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    • 2010
  • Changes of electroencephalogram (EEG), mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) and heart rate under surgical anesthesia were investigated in medetomidine (MED) and tiletamine/zolazepam (ZT)-anesthetized dogs. To determine the level of surgical anesthesia, pedal withdrawal reflex was regularly tested after ZT injection. The first time point without pain response was regarded as the beginning of surgical anesthesia (SSA). After SSA, the first time point showing positive pain response was considered the end of surgical anesthesia (ESA). Comparing the control, an additional significant decrease of ${\delta}2$ and ${\alpha}2$ was observed at SSA. Comparing the control, ${\delta}2$ was significantly decreased at ESA. Significant reductions of MAP were observed at pre-ESA and ESA. Heart rate significantly decreased in all stages. These results suggest that ${\delta}2$ band power is a valuable parameter for correlating surgical anesthesia in dogs anesthetized with MED and ZT.

Effects of In-depth Science Learning Through Multiple Intelligence Activities on the Science Inquiry Abilities and Interests of Elementary School Children (초등학교 과학과 심화학습에서 다중지능을 활용한 과학활동이 초등학생의 과학탐구능력과 흥미에 미치는 효과)

  • 이영아;임채성
    • Journal of Korean Elementary Science Education
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.239-254
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    • 2001
  • The in-depth learning course newly established in the 7th National Curriculum of Science is for students who have mastered regular subject matters on a science topic and want to learn it more deeply or by different ways. Individual learners have their own unique intellectual properties. The study examined the effects of in-depth science learning using multiple intelligence activities on the science inquiry abilities and interests of elementary school children. This study involved two fifth-grade science classes in Busan. Each class was assigned to comparison and experimental group. The science topics covered during the period of the study were Units of Matter and Earth. After studying each regular content formulated by the National Curriculum, the students of comparison group experienced traditional practices of in-depth science, whereas those of experimental one performed the Multiple Intelligence(MI) activities related to the content. Students of both groups were pre- and posttested using the inventories of Science Inquiry Ability and Science Interest. Also, after instruction on the topics, students were interviewed to collect more information related to their loaming. The results are as follows. First, the science inquiry abilities of children were increased by using activities based on MI during the in-depth science teaming. Two inquiry processes, that is, the Prediction which is regarded as one of the basic process skills in science and the Generalization regarded as one of integrated process skills showed statistically significant differences between the groups, although the differences of other skills not significant but more improvements in experimental group than comparison one. Second, the in-depth science loaming through MI contributed to the increasing of interests of the children in science. The scores on Science Interest measured in pretest and posttest with the two groups showed st statistically significant difference. For interest in science instruction, children of experimental group showed high level of interest for the various MI activities, and, although the comparison groups' level of the interest was low, they revealed that they want to experience the MI activities in future instruction of science. Interviews with the children randomly selected from the experimental group when they completed the in-depth programs showed that most of them had much interest in MI activities. Especially, they attributed significant meanings to the experiences of teaming with their friends and doing activities that they want to do. These findings have important implications about usefulness of MI in science instruction. The results also highlight the need for science teachers to provide a variety of experiences and to create environments which encourage the children to use MI to learn a science topic.

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