• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.27 no.6
• /
• pp.1049-1068
• /
• 2014

Autoregressive models are used to analyze an univariate time series data; however, these methods can be inappropriate when a structural break appears in a time series since they assume that a trend is consistent. Threshold autoregressive models (popular regime-switching models) have been proposed to address this problem. Recently, the models have been extended to two regime-switching models with delay parameter. We discuss two regime-switching threshold autoregressive models from a Bayesian point of view. For a Bayesian analysis, we consider a parametric threshold autoregressive model and a nonparametric threshold autoregressive model using Dirichlet process prior. The posterior distributions are derived and the posterior inferences is performed via Markov chain Monte Carlo method and based on two Bayesian threshold autoregressive models. We present a simulation study to compare the performance of the models. We also apply models to gross domestic product data of U.S.A and South Korea.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.34 no.3
• /
• pp.821-831
• /
• 2014

Stochastic rainfall generators or stochastic simulation have been widely employed to generate synthetic rainfall sequences which can be used in hydrologic models as inputs. The calibration of Poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generator (e.g. Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse, MBLRP) is seriously affected by local minima that is usually estimated from the local optimization algorithm. In this regard, global optimization techniques such as particle swarm optimization and shuffled complex evolution algorithm have been proposed to better estimate the parameters. Although the global search algorithm is designed to avoid the local minima, reliable parameter estimation of MBLRP model is not always feasible especially in a limited parameter space. In addition, uncertainty associated with parameters in the MBLRP rainfall generator has not been properly addressed yet. In this sense, this study aims to develop and test a Bayesian model based parameter estimation method for the MBLRP rainfall generator that allow us to derive the posterior distribution of the model parameters. It was found that the HBM based MBLRP model showed better performance in terms of reproducing rainfall statistic and underlying distribution of hourly rainfall series.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.36 no.5
• /
• pp.373-384
• /
• 2020

Hydrological models are based on a combination of parameters that describe the hydrological characteristics and processes within a watershed. For this reason, the model performance and accuracy are highly dependent on the parameters. However, model uncertainties caused by parameters with stochastic characteristics need to be considered. As a follow-up to the study conducted by Choi et al (2020), who developed a relatively simple semi-distributed hydrological model, we propose a tool to estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, a type of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo technique, and analyze the uncertainty of model parameters and simulated stream flow. In addition, the uncertainty caused by the parameters of each version is investigated using the lumped and semi-distributed versions of the applied model to the Hapcheon Dam watershed. The results suggest that the uncertainty of the semi-distributed model parameters was relatively higher than that of the lumped model parameters because the spatial variability of input data such as geomorphological and hydrometeorological parameters was inherent to the posterior distribution of the semi-distributed model parameters. Meanwhile, no significant difference existed between the two models in terms of uncertainty of the simulation outputs. The statistical goodness of fit of the simulated stream flows against the observed stream flows showed satisfactory reliability in both the semi-distributed and the lumped models, but the seasonality of the stream flow was reproduced relatively better by the distributed model.

• Physical Therapy Korea
• /
• v.13 no.4
• /
• pp.47-55
• /
• 2006

The purpose of this study was to compare the static balance of standing position between adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and a normal group that were aged-matched. There were forty subjects included in this study. Twenty-seven healthy subjects (age, $13.9{\pm}1.2$ yrs; height, $161.9{\pm}7.5$ cm; weight, $52.2{\pm}7.7$ kg) and thirteen AIS subjects (age, $14.2{\pm}2.2$ yrs; height, $161.5{\pm}8.7$ cm; weight, $48.1{\pm}8.1$ kg) were participated in the study. The thirteen subjects in the AIS group had a major Cobb angle between $20.1^{\circ}$ and $49^{\circ}$. Each group was tested with the Balance Performance Monitor (BPM). The parameters for static balance were sway area, sway path, max velocity, mean balance, anterior-posterior angle, and left-right angle of each group with their eyes opened and again with their eyes closed. Both sides of the forward reach test and the lateral reach test were also performed on each group. Results from the BPM tested showed significantly increases in all parameters of static balance with those patients with AIS under the conditions where eyes were opened and closed. In the right and left forward reach test, there was no significant difference between normal and AIS groups. However, in the lateral reach test with right and left direction, there were significant differences between normal and AIS groups. For the normal subjects, there were significant differences in the parameters with sway path and anterior-posterior sway angle between the eyes opened and closed. However, there were no significant differences in the all parameters between eyes opened and closed for the AIS subjects. These results suggest that, balance programs could be used in the rehabilitation setting for intervention of AIS and evaluation of AIS. Further study is needed to measure many patients with AIS and other functional balance scales for clinical application.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
• /
• v.63 no.4
• /
• pp.854-863
• /
• 2021

Weaning induces physiological changes in intestinal development that affect pigs' growth performance and susceptibility to disease. As a posttranscriptional regulator, microRNAs (miRNAs) regulate cellular homeostasis during intestinal development. We performed small RNA expression profiling in the small intestine of piglets before weaning (BW), 1 week after weaning (1W), and 2 weeks after weaning (2W) to identify weaning-associated differentially expressed miRNAs. We identified 38 differentially expressed miRNAs with varying expression levels among BW, 1W, and 2W. Then, we classified expression patterns of the identified miRNAs into four types. ssc-miR-196a and ssc-miR-451 represent pattern 1, which had an increased expression at 1W and a decreased expression at 2W. ssc-miR-499-5p represents pattern 2, which had an increased expression at 1W and a stable expression at 2W. ssc-miR-7135-3p and ssc-miR-144 represent pattern 3, which had a stable expression at 1W and a decreased expression at 2W. Eleven miRNAs (ssc-miR-542-3p, ssc-miR-214, ssc-miR-758, ssc-miR-4331, ssc-miR-105-1, ssc-miR-1285, ssc-miR-10a-5p, ssc-miR-4332, ssc-miR-503, ssc-miR-6782-3p, and ssc-miR-424-5p) represent pattern 4, which had a decreased expression at 1W and a stable expression at 2W. Moreover, we identified 133 candidate targets for miR-196a using a target prediction database. Gene ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway analyses revealed that the target genes were associated with 19 biological processes, 4 cellular components, 8 molecular functions, and 7 KEGG pathways, including anterior/posterior pattern specification as well as the cancer, PI3K-Akt, MAPK, GnRH, and neurotrophin signaling pathways. These findings suggest that miRNAs regulate the development of the small intestine during the weaning process in piglets by anterior/posterior pattern specification as well as the cancer, PI3K-Akt, MAPK, GnRH, and neurotrophin signaling pathways.

• Archives of Plastic Surgery
• /
• v.50 no.1
• /
• pp.42-48
• /
• 2023

Background The temporalis muscle flap transfer with fascia lata augmentation (FLA) is a promising method for smile reconstruction after facial palsy. International literature lacks a detailed anatomical analysis of the temporalis muscle (TPM) combined with fascia lata (FL) augmentation. This study aims to describe the muscle's properties and calculate the length of FL needed to perform the temporalis muscle flap transfer with FLA. Methods Twenty nonembalmed male (m) and female (f) hemifacial cadavers were dissected to investigate the temporalis muscle's anatomy. Results The calculated minimum length of FL needed is 7.03cm (f) and 5.99cm (m). The length of the harvested tendon is 3.16cm/± 1.32cm (f) and 3.18/± 0.73cm (m). The length of the anterior part of the temporalis muscle (aTPM) is 4.16/± 0.80cm (f) and 5.30/± 0.85cm (m). The length of the posterior part (pTPM) is 5.24/± 1.51cm (f) and 6.62/± 1.03cm (m). The length from the most anterior to the most posterior point (aTPMpTPM) is 8.60/± 0.98cm (f) and 10.18/± 0.79cm (m). The length from the most cranial point to the distal tendon (cTPMdT) is 7.90/± 0.43cm (f) and 9.79/± 1.11cm (m). Conclusions This study gives basic information about the temporalis muscle and its anatomy to support existing and future surgical procedures in their performance. The recommended minimum length of FL to perform a temporalis muscle transfer with FLA is 7.03cm for female and 5.99cm for male, and minimum width of 3 cm. We recommend harvesting some extra centimeters to allow adjusting afterward.

• Journal of Sport and Applied Science
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.1-12
• /
• 2023

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the possibility of modified swing to prevent shoulder injury by analyzing differences in the muscle activation patterns of upper limb by the swing method in wheelchair badminton players. Research design, data, and methodology: 10 wheelchair badminton players participated in the experiment as subjects and performed 10 high clears and 10 smashes in both traditional and modified swing methods toward a shuttlecock hung at the height of racket impact point. For each trial, activation patterns of biceps brachii, triceps brachii, anterior deltoid, and posterior deltoid were measured from the upper limb participating in the swing from which the duration, peak, and root mean square (RMS) of electromyography (EMG) activities from swing initiation to shuttle impact were calculated. The maximum swing velocity of the smash and the distance of the high clear were also measured with both methods to compare differences in the swing velocity and shuttle hit distance. Results: Differences in the EMG peak and RMS of the anterior deltoid by swing methods were shown to differ by the skill type, being higher in the traditional swing method than the modified during only the high clear. The EMG peak and RMS, and the duration of the posterior deltoid were higher and longer with the traditional swing method than the modified during both the smash and high clear. The intensities of the biceps brachii and triceps brachii activities measured during the smash and high clear were higher in the traditional swing method than the modified, and the biceps brachii and triceps activity durations during the high clear were shorter in the modified swing method than the traditional. The maximum swing velocity of the smash was faster with the traditional swing method than the modified, while the distance of the high clear did not differ significantly. Conclusions: These results suggest that the modified swing can be an effective performance method for preventing shoulder injuries without undue loss of impact power in wheelchair badminton players by reducing excessive loads imposed on the shoulder and allowing the optimal use of the elbow extension.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
• /
• v.4 no.3_4
• /
• pp.79-91
• /
• 1971

A boat seine has been used as a major fishing gear for catching anchovy (Engraulis japonica) in the southern coastal waters of Korea since 1920s. The original seine was operated by two rowing boats as the haul seine. The rowing boats were, in recent, replaced by powered boats. The net size was enlarged by more than three times the original nit as they began to by operated in the deeper waters of approximately sixty meters. However, there are many problems in the efficiency of the fishing gear to be improved. The authors studied on the hydrodynamic resistance and performance of the boat seine net of the 1/10 scale model in tow. The results are summaried as follows. 1. The hydrodynamic resistance converted from model experiment into the full scale is: $$R_1=30,000\;v^{1.2}\;(0.2{\leqq}v{\leqq}1.0)$$ $$R_2=16,000\;v^2\;(0.2{\leqq}v{\leqq}0.6)$$ where $R_1$ and $R_2$ denote the resistance of whole gear and of bag net in kg respectively, and v the speed of flow in m/sec. 2. In the extension wing, approximately seventy percent of the length of the ground rope from the towing end to the inside-wing slopes down from sea level toward the sea bottom, while the thirty percent of the inside of it remains parallel with th: 5:a level. The performance is regarded to b: inefficient for driving fish shoal into the inside-wing, especially for the shoal diving suddenly. 3. At the towing speed higher than 0.2 m/sec, the trailing edge of the inside-wing is blown backward beyond the seaming line connecting the inside-wing and the mouth of the bag net. It is regarded as an unreasonable performance to drive the fish shoal smoothly into the bag net. 4. At the towing speed higher than 0.2 m/sec, the posterior end of the lower bosom is lifted up above the level of the ground rope of the inside-wing. It is considered that the fish shoal diving suddenly can escape through the discrepancy between the lower bosom and the sea bottom, even if the ground rope of the inside-wing sweeps the sea bottom. 5. The angle of inclination of the upper bosom is estimated as $35\~40^{\circ}$. It seems that the inclination is too steep to drive smoothly the fish shoal diving toward the sea bottom into the bag net. 6. In structure, circumference of the posterior section of the bag net is wider by 1.3 times that of the anterior section. Actually in towing at a speed higher than 0.2m/sec, however, the circumference of the posterior section becomes smaller than that of the anterior section. It is recommended to be designed in a long cylindrical form.

• The Journal of the Society of Stroke on Korean Medicine
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.15-22
• /
• 2013

■ Objectives The aim of this study is to look into the correlation between motor performance and displacement of center of pressure(CoP) in hemiplegic patients with cerebral stroke. ■ Methods We measured manual muscle test(MMT) as motor performance value and, anterior/posterior position(Ant./Post. position) and lateral symmetry of CoP as displacement of CoP values from 129 stroke patients. The gait analysis was carried out using treadmill gait analysis equipment. ■ Results In terms of motor performance, MMT of upper extremity negatively correlated with Ant/Post position of CoP, however, one of lower extremity did not. In addition, MMT of both extremities negatively correlated with lateral symmetry of CoP. ■ Conclusion Displacement of CoP was negatively correlated with hemiplegic patient's motor performance.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.45 no.5
• /
• pp.505-516
• /
• 2012

The study applies a hydrologic simulation model, HEC-1 developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center to Daecheong dam watershed for modeling hourly inflows of Daecheong dam. Although the HEC-1 model provides an automatic optimization technique for some of the parameters, the built-in optimization model is not sufficient in estimating reliable parameters. In particular, the optimization model often fails to estimate the parameters when a large number of parameters exist. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to develop Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based HEC-1 model (BHEC-1). The Clark IUH method for transformation of precipitation excess to runoff and the soil conservation service runoff curve method for abstractions were used in Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. Simulations of runoff at the Daecheong station in the HEC-1 model under Bayesian optimization scheme allow the posterior probability distributions of the hydrograph thus providing uncertainties in rainfall-runoff process. The proposed model showed a powerful performance in terms of estimating model parameters and deriving full uncertainties so that the model can be applied to various hydrologic problems such as frequency curve derivation, dam risk analysis and climate change study.