• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2008.02a
• /
• pp.683-686
• /
• 2008

Flood damage has been increased due to the abnormal climate and extreme rainfall. So, quantitative and qualitative hydrologic data should be improved in oder to enhance accuracy of hydrologic forecast. However, research regarding hydrologic data have not been thorough enough. Therefore, in this study, monte carlo simulation was applied to rainfall runoff model to improve the reliability of runoff analysis and risk analysis. Rainfall-Stage-Discharge curve was developed as a consequence of MCS and it is possible to get correct rating curve for high water level.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• v.15 no.9
• /
• pp.4109-4115
• /
• 2014

Background: Accurate assessment of disease progression requires proper understanding of natural disease process which is often hidden and unobservable. For this purpose, disease status should be clearly detected. But in most diseases it is not possible to detect such status. This study, therefore, aims to present a model which both investigates the unobservable disease process and considers the error probability in diagnosis of disease states. Materials and Methods: Data from 330 patients with gastric cancer undergoing surgery at the Iran Cancer Institute from 1995 to 1999 were analyzed. Moreover, to estimate and assess the effect of demographic, diagnostic and clinical factors as well as medical and post-surgical variables on transition rates and the probability of misdiagnosis of relapse, a hidden Markov multi-state model was employed. Results: Classification errors of patients in alive state without a relapse ($e_{21}$) and with a relapse ($e_{12}$) were 0.22 (95% CI: 0.04-0.63) and 0.02 (95% CI: 0.00-0.09), respectively. Only variables of age and number of renewed treatments affected misdiagnosis of relapse. In addition, patient age and distant metastasis were among factors affecting the occurrence of relapse (state1${\rightarrow}$state2) while the number of renewed treatments and the type and extent of surgery had a significant effect on death hazard without relapse (state2${\rightarrow}$state3)and death hazard with relapse (state2${\rightarrow}$state3). Conclusions: A hidden Markov multi-state model provides the possibility of estimating classification error between different states of disease. Moreover, based on this model, factors affecting the probability of this error can be identified and researchers can be helped with understanding the mechanisms of classification error.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.10 no.6
• /
• pp.73-80
• /
• 2010

Conventional slope stability analysis is focused on calculating minimum factor of safety or maximum probability of failure. To minimize inherent uncertainty of soil properties and analytical model and to reflect various analytical models and its failure shape in slope stability analysis, slope stability analysis method considering simultaneous failure probability for multi failure mode was proposed. Linear programming recently introduced in system reliability analysis was used for calculation of simultaneous failure probability. System reliability analysis for various analytical models could be executed by this method. Optimum design to determine angle of a simple slope is executed for multi failure mode using linear programming. Because of complex consideration for various failure shapes and modes, it is possible to secure advanced safety by using simultaneous failure probability.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.23-30
• /
• 2010

The research presents moisture content measuring and calibration method of road pavement, especially asphalt concrete pavement for performance evaluation or remaining life prediction using Time Domain Reflectometry(TDR) sensor, CS616 made by campbell INC. Before calibration test of CS616, accomplished a sensor verification tests. Verification test items were covering depth and interference effect of two CS616 sensors, temperature effects between $5^{\circ}C\sim25^{\circ}C$ and compaction ratio effects. Covering depth and interference effects between two CS616 sensors were just small and the effects of temperature and compaction ratio effected a Volumetric Moisture Contents at $\pm6%$ under disregard appeared with the fact that was possible. Also, obtained the calibration equation of the subgrade and subbase course, $R^2$ showed above of all 0.9.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.19-29
• /
• 2007

This study compares various ground-truth designs of radar rainfall using rain-gauge data sets from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), AWS and Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MOCT). These Rain-gauge data sets and the Mt. Gwanak radar rainfall data for the same period were compared, and then the differences between two observed rainfall were evaluated with respect to the amount of bias. Additionally this study investigated possible differences in bias due to different storm characteristics. The application results showed no distinct differences between biases from three rain-gauge data sets, but some differences in their statistical characteristics. In overall, the design bias from MOCT was estimated to be the smallest among the three rain-gauge data sets. Among three storm events considered, the jangma with the highest spatial intermittency showed the smallest bias.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.75-83
• /
• 2007

Urbanized area has complex terrain with many flow paths. Almost stormwater is drained through pipe network because most area is impervious. And overland flow from the pipe network reform the surface flow. Therefore, it should be considered the drainage system and surface runoff both in urban inundation analysis. It is analyzed by using MIKE FLOOD integrated 1 dimension - 2 dimension model about Incheon Gyo urbanized watershed and compared with the results of 1 dimension model and 2 dimension model. At the result this approach linking of 2 dimension and 1 dimension pipe hydraulic model in MIKE FLOOD give accuracy that offers substantial improvement over earlier approach and more information about inundation such as water dapth, velocity or risk of flood, because it is possible to present storage of overland flow and topographical characteristic of area.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.5 no.1 s.16
• /
• pp.13-21
• /
• 2005

Experiments on settling behaviour of fine-grained particles without destroying the large fragile aggregates were carried out in still water with a CCD (Charged Coupled Device)-Camera. The experiments dealt with the measuring of the vertical concentration profile of cohesive particles with a CCD-Camera and the physico-chemical influences (NaCl, density, temperature and pH value) on the vertical distribution of the concentration. The vertical concentration profile of fine suspended particles (alumina and quartz) was possible up to $20,000\;mg/{\ell}$ with a CCD-Camera. The vertical concentration profile of cohesive sediments was on the decrease because of the increasing initial concentration, temperature and salinity. The vertical concentration profile of alumina was on the decrease quicker than quartz with increasing salinity. Furthermore, the pH value affects the settling behaviour of alumina. At a PH value of 4.2 the settling rate of the particles was very low and on the increase until pH 8.9 because of the aggregation behaviour of particles. From the PH value of 9 the average settling velocity was on the decrease.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.4 no.1 s.12
• /
• pp.41-50
• /
• 2004

The objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of the developed Fuzzy control techniques in dam operation. The simulated results for the 1984, 1990, and 1995 flood events are compared with historical operation results in the view of flood control and disaster prevention. The three models developed in this study determine the outflows based on the two conditions the first one is to consider only two inputs such as reservoir water level and inflow, for operation of the existing situations, the second one is that the possible maximum discharge from each dam does not exceed the allowable design maximum discharge for disaster prevention in downstream area. As the results, it was shown that the suggested models based on Fuzzy control technique could reduce both the peak water level and the maximum peak discharge compared with the historical operation results.

• Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.370-380
• /
• 2009

Reliable hazard and risk communication is needed to prevent the safety accident & occupational disease through right use of chemicals and MSDS(Material Safety Data Sheet) is mainly used as such a tool of communication. MSDS policy has been put into effect in order to prevent the safety accident & occupational disease through right use of chemicals and fulfill workers' right to know. If information on MSDS lacks reliability due to its inaccuracy, prevention of the various effects related with environmental safety & health in advance is not possible to achieve. The most essential thing regarding authoring MSDS is to exactly evaluate the composition and ingredients of the chemical and include reliability-guaranteed information. Therefore, in this study reliability was evaluated on MSDSs in 15 aromatic hydrocarbons(benzene, toluene, xylene, etc.) manufacturers and ways to secure reliability of MSDS were suggested. The results showed 93.5% of composition agreement rate and 89% of reliability on each section in MSDSs. In order to curb MSDSs with low reliability, examination on CBI(confidential business information) in MSDS, certification of MSDS, collection and verification of MSDS are suggested.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.9 no.6
• /
• pp.17-30
• /
• 2009

In this study, the existence of possible deterministic longterm trend of precipitation amount, monthly maximum precipitation, rain day, the number of rain day greater than 20mm, 30mm, and 80mm was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall rank test and the data from 62 stations between 1905 and 2004 in South Korea. Results indicate that the annual and monthly rainfall amount increases and the number of rain days which have more than 80mm rainfall a day, increases. However the number of rain days decreases. Also, monthly trend analysis of precipitation amount and monthly maximum precipitation increases in Jan., May, Jun., Jul., Aug., and Sep. and they decrease in Mar., Apr., Oct., Nov., and Dec. Monthly trend of the number of rain day greater than 20mm, 30mm, and 80mm increases in Jun., Jul., Aug., and Sep. However results of Mann-Kedall test demonstrated that the ratio of stations, which have meaningful longterm trend in the significance level of 90% and 95%, is very low. It means that the random variability of the analyzed precipitation related data is much greater than their linear increment.