• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.21 no.1 s.23
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• pp.61-69
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• 1988

In this study, the number of physicians presently living in Korea was thoroughly estimated by several means and, on this basis, their productivity and level of supply were estimated. The results were as follows First, the number of physicians who did not notify the Korea Medical Association in May 1987 were 10,110, including 4,093 emigrant physicians(40.5%) ,861 military medical officers,745 public health doctors, and 107 deceased physicians. A total of 1,330 physicians could not be identified by any effort. Second, among the 34,897 registered physicians as of May 1987, 29,933(85.8%) were residing in Korea, 4,115 physicians(11.8%) had emigrated to other countries, and 849 physicians(2.4%) were deceased. Practicing physicians difined as those in Korea who were not retired, serving in the military, or completing residencies or internships, comprised 78.6%(27,414 physicians) of the total number of registered physicians. Third, it is estimated that in the year 2000 the number of registered physicians, physicians residing in Korea, and practicing physician will be 75,040, 64,038, and 57,655, respectively and these are increases of 115.0%, 113.9%, and 110.3%, respectively, compared to 1987. Fourth, the population physician ratio will be 759 to one physician in the year 2000. Fifth, the productivity of physicians, as calculated by relative values defining the productivity of 35 to 44 year-old male physicians as 10, will increase 110.7% in the year 2000 compare to that of 1987, and this increment is almost the same level as that of physician supply. From the results of the present analysis of physician manpower and supply projection, it can be recognized that the development of a regular notification system is necessary in order to identify precisely the number of physicians. Also a policy of physician supply is essential in order to adjust in advance the number of physicians, otherwise there will be surplus to the medical demand.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.131-142
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• 1999

By using the Korean demographic data and the modified relative risk projection model given in the Committee on the Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) report-V under the U.S. National Academy of Science, the radiogenic excess risk in Korean population has been evaluated. On the basis of this risk, a safety goal for the safe operation of domestic nuclear power plants has been further derived in terms of personal dose. The baseline risk of death due to all causes in Korea and the trivial risk level, which the society considers safe, were estimated to be $5.2{\times}10^{-3}$ and $5.2{\times}10^{-6}$, respectively. The radiogenic excess cancer risk in Korea has been estimated to be $5.2{\times}10^{-3}$ for tie case of acute exposure to 0.1 Gy and $3.7{\times}10^{-3}$ for the case of chronic lifetime exposure to 1.0 mGy/y. On the basis of these risks estimate, the resulting safety goal for one year opeation of a reactor was 0.05 mSv, which is quite identical with the ALARA guideline prescribed by the USNRC in the Appendix I, 10CFR50.

• Archives of Plastic Surgery
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.229-238
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• 2018

Background Nipple-sparing mastectomies (NSMs) are increasingly performed to obtain the best aesthetic and psychological outcomes in breast cancer treatment. However, merely preserving the nipple-areolar complex (NAC) does not guarantee a good outcome. Darkly pigmented NACs and a tendency for poor scarring outcomes are particular challenges when treating Asian patients. Herein, we review the reconstructive outcomes following NSM at Singapore General Hospital. Methods All breasts reconstructed following NSM over an 11-year period from 2005 to 2015 were reviewed. Information was collected from the patients' records on mastectomy indications, operative details, and complications. Patient satisfaction, breast sensation, and aesthetic outcomes were evaluated in 15 patients. Sensation was quantified using the Semmes-Weinstein monofilament test. Results A total of 142 NSMs were performed in 133 patients for breast cancer (n=122, 85.9%) or risk reduction (n=20, 14.1%). Of the procedures, 114 (80.2%) were autologous reconstructions, while 27 (19.0%) were reconstructions with implants. Complications occurred in 28 breasts (19.7%), with the most common complication being NAC necrosis, which occurred in 17 breasts (12.0%). Four breasts (2.8%) had total NAC necrosis. The overall mean patient satisfaction score was 3.0 (good). The sensation scores were significantly diminished in the skin envelope, areola, and nipple of breasts that had undergone NSM compared to non-operated breasts (P<0.05). Half of the subset of 15 patients in whom aesthetic outcomes were evaluated had reduced nipple projection. Conclusions Immediate reconstruction after NSM was performed with a low complication rate in this series, predominantly through autologous reconstruction. Patients should be informed of potential drawbacks, including NAC necrosis, reduced nipple projection, and diminished sensation.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.305-308
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• 2012

Objective: To assess the health and economic burden of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related diseases (cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1/2/3, and genital warts) in Singapore over a period of 25 years beginning in 2008. Methods: Incidence-based modeling was used to estimate the incidence cases and associated economic burden, with the assumption that age-stratified incidence rates will remain the same throughout the period of 25 years. The incidence rates in 2008 were projected based on data obtained from the National Cancer Registry for cervical cancer, and from a combination of published data and hospital registry review for CIN1/2/3 and genital warts. The population growth rate was factored into the projection of incidence cases over time. Direct cost data per cervical cancer and per CIN1/2/3 case were obtained from the financial database of large local hospitals while cost data for genital warts were obtained from the National Skin Center; these costs were multiplied by the number of incidence cases to produce an aggregate estimate of the economic burden over the 25-year period (in 2008 Singapore dollars) using a 3% discount rate. Results: The total number of incidence cases of HPV-disease over 25 years beginning in 2008 was estimated to be 60,183, including 8,078 for cervical cancer, 11,685 for CIN 2/3, 8,849 for CIN1, and 31,572 for genital warts. The estimated total direct cost was 83.2 million Singapore Dollars over 25 years: 57.6 million attributable to cervical cancer, 13.0 million to CIN2/3, 6.83 million to CIN1, and 5.70 million to genital warts. Conclusion: HPV-related diseases are expected to impose significant health and economic burden on the Singapore healthcare resources in the next 25 years.

• The Journal of Korean Medicine
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.27-36
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• 1999

This study was performed to investigate the supply and demand of the oriental medical doctor(OMD) based on the supply and demand analysis of OMD up to the year 1997. The baseline projection and demographic methods were considered to examine the supply of OMD. On the contrary, for the demand analysis, two different approaches were conducted with the nonlinear regression model. The findings of this study indicate that the OMD will be oversupplied before the year 2012 with decreasing rate. However, when we consider the demand of OMD in the future. it is anticipated that the demand of oriental medicine will be increased rapidly with two major aspects. The first is the expansion of insurance benefits. The second is the increasing number of adult diseases because of the aging of the population structure. Therefore, the effective cooperation system and mutual exchange between western and oriental medicine is required for the future. Also. it is necessary to make the oriental medicine of the pharmaceutical services in more scientific way for the appropriate policy of the demand and supply of OMD. For the future study, the students who study abroad, especially China should be considered. These students will be the key element for the future supply of OMD.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.367-380
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• 2019

Global warming causes various problems such as the increase of the sea surface temperature, the change of coastlines, ocean acidification and sea level rise. Sea level rise is an especially critical threat to coastal regions where massive population and infrastructure reside. Sea level change is affected by thermal expansion and mass increase. This study projected future sea level changes in the 21st century using the HadGEM2-AO with RCP8.5 scenario. In particular, sea level change due to water mass input from ice-sheets and glaciers melting is studied. Sea level based on surface mass balance of Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.045 m and -0.053 m over the period 1986~2005 to 2081~2100. During the same period, sea level owing to dynamical change on Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.055 m and 0.03 m, respectively. Additionally, glaciers melting results in 0.145 m sea level rise. Although most of the projected sea level changes from HadGEM2-AO are slightly smaller than those from 21 ensemble data of CMIP5, both results are significantly consistent each other within 90% uncertainty range of CMIP5.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.18
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• pp.8359-8364
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• 2016

Background: Thailand has come to an epidemiologic transition with decreasing infectious diseases and increasing burden of chronic conditions, including cancer. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females throughout Thailand. This study aimed to identify the current burden and the future trends of breast cancer of Lopburi, a province in the Central Thailand. Materials and Methods: We used cancer incidence data from the Lopburi Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the incidence of breast cancer in Central Thailand. With joinpoint and age-period-cohort analyses, the incidence of breast cancer in the province from 2001 to 2010 and project future trends from 2011 to 2030 was investigated. Results: Age-adjusted incidence rates of breast cancer in Lopburi increased from 23.4 to 34.3 cases per 100,000 female population during the period, equivalent to an annual percentage change of 4.3% per year. Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the increase in incidence. Joinpoint projection suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women ages 50 years and above increasing at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50. Conclusions: The current situation where early detection measures are being promoted could increase detection rates of the disease. Preparation of sufficient budget for treatment facilities and human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential for future medical care.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.18
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• pp.8327-8333
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• 2016

Background: The recent epidemiologic transition in Thailand, with decreasing incidence of infectious diseases along with increasing rates of chronic conditions, including cancer, is a serious problem for the country. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females throughout Thailand. Lampang is a province in the upper part of Northern Thailand. A study was needed to identify the current burden, and the future trends of breast cancer in upper Northern Thai women. Materials and Methods: Here we used cancer incidence data from the Lampang Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the local incidence of breast cancer. Joinpoint analysis, age period cohort model and Nordpred package were used to investigate the incidences of breast cancer in the province from 1993 to 2012 and to project future trends from 2013 to 2030. Results: Age-standardized incidence rates (world) of breast cancer in the upper parts of Northern Thailand increased from 16.7 to 26.3 cases per 100,000 female population which is equivalent to an annual percentage change of 2.0-2.8%, according to the method used. Linear drift effects played a role in shaping the increase of incidence. The three projection method suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women aged 50 and above, increasing at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50. Conclusions: The current early detection measures increase detection rates of early disease. Preparation of a budget for treatment facilities and human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.15
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• pp.6735-6740
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• 2015

Background: With the recent epidemiologic transition in Thailand, featuring decreasing incidences of infectious diseases along with increasing rates of chronic conditions, cancer is becoming a serious problem for the country. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females, not only in the southern regions, but throughout Thailand. Surat Thani is a province in the upper part of Southern Thailand. A study was needed to identify the current burden, and the future trends of breast cancer. Materials and Methods: Here we used cancer incidence data from the Surat Thani Cancer Registry to characterize the incidences of breast cancer. Joinpoint analysis was used to investigate the incidences in the province from 2004 to 2012 and to project future trends from 2013 to 2030. Results: Age-standardized incidence rates (world) of breast cancer in the upper parts of Southern Thailand increased from 35.1 to 59.2 cases per 100,000 female population, which is equivalent to an annual percentage change of 4.5-4.8%. Linear drift effects played a role in shaping the increase of incidence. Joinpoint projection suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women aged 50 and above, at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50. Conclusions: The current early detection measures increase detection rates of early disease. Preparation of a budget for treatment facilities and human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.8
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• pp.3097-3100
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• 2015

Projections of cancer cases are particularly useful in developing countries to plan and prioritize both diagnostic and treatment facilities. In the prediction of cancer cases for the future period say after 5 years or after 10 years, it is imperative to use the knowledge of past time trends in incidence rates as well as in population at risk. In most of the recently published studies the duration for which the time trend was assessed was more than 10 years while in few studies the duration was between 5-7 years. This raises the question as to what is the optimum time period which should be used for assessment of time trends and projections. Thus, the present paper explores the suitability of different time periods to predict the future rates so that the valid projections of cancer burden can be done for India. The cancer incidence data of selected cancer sites of Bangalore, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai PBCR for the period of 1991-2009 was utilized. The three time periods were selected namely 1991-2005; 1996-2005, 1999-2005 to assess the time trends and projections. For the five selected sites, each for males and females and for each registry, the time trend was assessed and the linear regression equation was obtained to give prediction for the years 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. These predictions were compared with actual incidence data. The time period giving the least error in prediction was adjudged as the best. The result of the current analysis suggested that for projections of cancer cases, the 10 years duration data are most appropriate as compared to 7 year or 15 year incidence data.