• Title/Summary/Keyword: population dynamics model

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Locational Analysis of Rural Industrial Estates and Chonbuk Economic Development Strategies (농공지구 입지분석 : 전라북도의 경우)

  • 박임구;백영기;장재우
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.103-119
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    • 1993
  • This research examines the spatial development of rural industrial estates (Nong-gong Jigu) in Chonbuk province and gives insight into the strategies for economic development in the entire region. Selected location factors which are likely to pull new investment into the estates are examined by using questionnaires. Few loction factors except nonlocal factors can be found in explaining why location choices are made. The irrelevance of the analysis based on location factors suggests that an alternative approach should analyze changes in the spatial development of the rural industrial estates. Such an alternative is to understand the dynamics of the spatial organization of production by focusing on characteistics of plant closing in the rural industrial estates. To take into account of the characteristics of plant closing we provide the hypothesized relationships between employment size, organizational structure, inter and intra industrial linkage, characteristics of production processes, and availability of local labor market and the likelihood of closing. A logit model is then made to identify the selected factors which might influence the probability of plant closing. The results from the logit analysis and their implications suggest that the policy should be more concerned with the characteristics of firms, such as size and ownership, as well as of the local labor markets. Given that the Chonbuk region has experienced rapid population decline, together with its poor industrial base, it seems that the success of the policy in the declined rural areas in less certain.

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A Study on Optimization of Motion Parameters and Dynamic Analysis for 3-D.O.F Fish Robot (3 자유도 물고기 로봇의 동적해석 및 운동파라미터 최적화에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Seok;Quan, Vo Tuong;Lee, Byung-Ryong;Yu, Ho-Yeong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.33 no.10
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    • pp.1029-1037
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    • 2009
  • Recently, the technologies of mobile robots have been growing rapidly in the fields such as cleaning robot, explosive ordnance disposal robot, patrol robot, etc. However, the researches about the autonomous underwater robots have not been done so much, and they still remain at the low level of technology. This paper describes a model of 3-joint (4 links) fish robot type. Then we calculate the dynamic motion equation of this fish robot and use Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method to reduce the divergence of fish robot's motion when it operates in the underwater environment. And also, we analysis response characteristic of fish robot according to the parameters of input torque function and compare characteristic of fish robot with 3 joint and fish robot with 2 joint. Next, fish robot's maximum velocity is optimized by using the combination of Hill Climbing Algorithm (HCA) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). HCA is used to generate the good initial population for GA and then use GA is used to find the optimal parameters set that give maximum propulsion power in order to make fish robot swim at the fastest velocity.

Analysis of the Influence of Urban Land Cover Changes on the Thermal Environment of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Model (전산유체역학 모델을 이용한 도시 지표 피복 변화가 대기 경계층 열적 환경에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Ji-Seon;Yoo, Jung-Woo;Na, Mun-Soo;Kim, Yong-Gil;Lee, Soon-Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.29 no.12
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    • pp.1153-1170
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    • 2020
  • With global warming and the rapid increase in urbanization accompanied by a concentration of population, the urban heat island effects (UHI) have become an important environmental issue. In this study, rooftop greening and permeable asphalt pavement were selected as measures to reduce urban heat island and applied to a simple virtual urban environment to simulate temperature change using ENVI-met. A total of five measures were tested by dividing the partial and whole area application of each measure. The results showed that the temperature range of the base experiment is 33.11-37.11 ℃, with the UTCI comfort level described as strong heat and very strong heat stress. A case applied permeable asphalt has a greater temperature difference than a rooftop greening case, the larger the area where each condition was applied, the greater the temperature change was.

Study on Fire Simulation in College Dormitories Based on Pyrosim

  • Zechen Zhang;Hasung Kong
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.321-327
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    • 2024
  • In recent years, the frequency of fires in college dormitories has been increasing, primarily due to outdated electrical wiring and improper use of electrical appliances. Given the high population density in such buildings, fires can cause significant damage to life and property. To better understand the dynamics of dormitory fires, this study uses Pyrosim fire simulation software to model fire scenarios in a six-story male dormitory. The study focuses on analyzing key factors such as heat release rates, smoke spread, temperature changes, and carbon monoxide concentrations during a fire. Simulation results indicate that smoke spreads rapidly after a fire breaks out, significantly reducing visibility and hindering evacuation efforts. Simultaneously, temperatures near the fire source rise quickly, exceeding safe levels, and carbon monoxide concentrations reach dangerous thresholds in a short time, greatly increasing the risk of poisoning. Based on these findings, the study proposes several recommendations to improve fire prevention in dormitories, including installing smoke barriers, improving evacuation routes, adding mechanical smoke extraction systems, and enhancing students' fire safety awareness and skills through regular training. These measures are crucial for reducing fire risks and enhancing fire safety in college dormitories.

Analysis of the Effect of Temperature on the Pesticide Efficacy and Simulation of the Change in the Amount of Pesticide Use (온도가 농약효과에 미치는 영향분석 및 농약사용량 예측 모의실험)

  • Mo, Hyoung-ho;Kang, Ju Wan;Cho, Kijong;Bae, Yeon Jae;Lee, Mi-Gyung;Park, Jung-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.56-62
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    • 2016
  • Pest population density models are very important to monitor the initial occurrence and to understand the continuous fluctuation pattern of pest in pest management. This is one of the major issues in agriculture because these predictions make pesticides more effective and environmental impact of pesticides less. In this study, we combined and predicted the mortality change of pest caused by pesticides with temperature change and population dynamic model. Sensitive strain of two-spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae Koch) with kidney bean leaf as host was exposed to mixed acaricide, Acrinathrin-Spiromesifen and organotin acaricide, Azocyclotin, at 20, 25, 30, and $35^{\circ}C$, respectively. There was significant difference in mortality of T. urticae among pesticides and temperatures. We used DYMEX to simulate population density of T. urticae and predicted that the initial management time and number of chemical control would be changed in the future with climate change. There would be implications for strategies for pest management and selection process of pesticide in the future corresponding climate change.

Analyzing Dynamics of Korean Housing Market Using Causal Loop Structures (주택시장의 동태성 분석을 위한 시스템 사고의 적용에 관한 연구 - 인과순환지도를 중심으로 -)

  • Shin Hye-Sung;Sohn Jeong-Rak;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.3 s.25
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    • pp.144-155
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    • 2005
  • Since 1950s, the Korean housing market has continually experienced the chronicle lack of housing stock because of lower housing investment in comparison with a population explosion, prompt urbanization and rapid restructuring of family. The Korean housing market have thus been driven not by the pricing model by housing demand-supply chain but by the Korean housing policies focusing on the increase of housing supply and the living stability of the middle or low-income bracket. After all, repetitive economic vicious circle of housing price and the increase of unsold apartments aggravated the malfunction of the Korean housing market. Meanwhile, the Korean construction firms have exacerbated their profitability. Such terrible situations are mainly triggered by the Korean construction firms that weighed on the short-term profits and quick response of the government policy alterations rather than the prospect of housing market Therefore, this research focusing on the dynamics of housing market identified and classified the demand and supply elements that consist not only of housing system structures but also of the environmental elements that affect the structures. Based on the system thinking and traditional theory of consumer's choice, the interactions of these elements were constructed as a causal loop diagram that explains the mutual influences among housing subsystems with feedback loops. This paper describes and discusses about the causes of the dynamic changes in the Korean housing market. This study would help housing suppliers, including housing developers, construction firms, etc., to form a more comprehensive understanding on the fundamental issues that constitute the Korean housing market and thereby increasing their long term as well as minimizing the risk involved in the housing supply businesses.

A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL OF FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION IN KOREA (양곡생산(糧穀生産)의 동적(動的) 모델에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Chong Ho
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 1983
  • A system dynamic model was developed to predict food grain production under the dynamic consideration of the production circumstance and inputs such as farm population, investment on agriculture, arable land, extensive technology and weather. By using the model, the variation of the food grain production from 1978 to 2008 was examined. The results of the model output says it is desirable that the persistent and long-term program should be studied to get necessary food grain production under the variational inputs and circumstances.

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Impact Analysis of Tributaries and Simulation of Water Pollution Accident Scenarios in the Water Source Section of Han River Using 3-D Hydrodynamic Model (3차원 수리모델을 이용한 한강 상수원구간 지류영향 분석 및 수질오염사고 시나리오 모의)

  • Kim, Eunjung;Park, Changmin;Na, Mijeong;Park, Hyeon;Kim, Bogsoon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.363-374
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    • 2018
  • The Han River serves as an important water resource for the city of Seoul, Korea and in the neighboring metropolitan areas. From the Paldang dam to the Jamsil submerged weir, the 4 water intake stations that are located for the Seoul metropolitan population were under review in this study. Therefore the water quality management in this section is very important to monitor, analyze and review to rule out any safety concerns. In this study, a 3-D hydrodynamic model, EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code), was applied to the downstream of the Paldang Dam in the Han River, which is about 23 km in length, to determine issues related to water resource management. The 3-D grid was composed of 2,168 horizontal grids and three vertical layers. In this case, the hydrodynamic model was calibrated and verified with an observed average daily water surface elevation, water temperature and flow rate data for 3 years (2013~2015). The developed EFDC model proved to reproduce the hydrodynamics of the Han River well. The composition ratios of the noted incoming flows at the monitored intake stations for 3 years and their flow patterns in the river were analyzed using the validated model. It was found that the flow of the Wangsuk Stream depended on the Paldnag dam discharge, and it was noted that the composition ratios of the stream at the intake stations changed accordingly. In a word, the Wangsuk Stream moved mainly along the right bank of the Han River under the condition of a normal dam flow. As can be seen, when the dam discharge rate was low, the incidence of lateral mixing was often seen. The scenario analyses were also conducted to predict the transport of conservative pollutants as in the case of a chemical spill accident. Generally speaking, when scenarios were applied, the arrival time and concentration of pollutants at each intake station was thus predicted.

Study on the Methodology of the Microbial Risk Assessment in Food (식품중 미생물 위해성평가 방법론 연구)

  • 이효민;최시내;윤은경;한지연;김창민;김길생
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 1999
  • Recently, it is continuously rising to concern about the health risk being induced by microorganisms in food such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes. Various organizations and regulatory agencies including U.S.FPA, U.S.DA and FAO/WHO are preparing the methodology building to apply microbial quantitative risk assessment to risk-based food safety program. Microbial risks are primarily the result of single exposure and its health impacts are immediate and serious. Therefore, the methodology of risk assessment differs from that of chemical risk assessment. Microbial quantitative risk assessment consists of tow steps; hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification is accomplished by observing and defining the types of adverse health effects in humans associated with exposure to foodborne agents. Epidemiological evidence which links the various disease with the particular exposure route is an important component of this identification. Exposure assessment includes the quantification of microbial exposure regarding the dynamics of microbial growth in food processing, transport, packaging and specific time-temperature conditions at various points from animal production to consumption. Dose-response assessment is the process characterizing dose-response correlation between microbial exposure and disease incidence. Unlike chemical carcinogens, the dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens has not focused on animal models for extrapolation to humans. Risk characterization links the exposure assessment and dose-response assessment and involve uncertainty analysis. The methodology of microbial dose-response assessment is classified as nonthreshold and thresh-old approach. The nonthreshold model have assumption that one organism is capable of producing an infection if it arrives at an appropriate site and organism have independence. Recently, the Exponential, Beta-poission, Gompertz, and Gamma-weibull models are using as nonthreshold model. The Log-normal and Log-logistic models are using as threshold model. The threshold has the assumption that a toxicant is produce by interaction of organisms. In this study, it was reviewed detailed process including risk value using model parameter and microbial exposure dose. Also this study suggested model application methodology in field of exposure assessment using assumed food microbial data(NaCl, water activity, temperature, pH, etc.) and the commercially used Food MicroModel. We recognized that human volunteer data to the healthy man are preferred rather than epidemiological data fur obtaining exact dose-response data. But, the foreign agencies are studying the characterization of correlation between human and animal. For the comparison of differences to the population sensitivity: it must be executed domestic study such as the establishment of dose-response data to the Korean volunteer by each microbial and microbial exposure assessment in food.

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A Study on Perceived Time Pressure and Time Use: Focusing on the Employed Men and Women in Korea by Using 1999 and 2009 Time Diary Data (취업남녀의 시간부족인식과 시간활용: 1999년과 2009년의 생활시간자료 비교)

  • Cha, Seung-Eun
    • Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.131-151
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    • 2011
  • This study attempted to estimate the level of perceived lack of time in Korean society, to link it to time management and to identify the possible association that accounts for time shortage. I employed the gender perspective in order to reveal the dynamics and complexity of the perception of a lack of time in the population. The sample for the study was drawn from the 1999 and 2009 Korean time diary data collected by the Korean National Statistical Office. From the original data, I selected a sample of second shift families(men and women who are presently working and raising children) living in metropolitan areas(including Seoul and six major urban areas in Korea). The dependent variable was time pressure measured by a single-item question on a four-point likert scale. The results of the study showed that working mothers perceived a greater time shortage as compared to working fathers. The time use pattern showed change during the periods, indicating that people worked fewer hours in paid labor and enjoyed more leisure hours and personal care hours. However, on average, people seemed to have experienced a greater time lack in 2009 as compared to 1999. The results from the ordered logistic regression model revealed that even though there were similarities in the impact of relevant factors, men's perception of a lack of time was more closely linked with their work role and social status, while for women, this perception was influenced by work and family duties. This indicates that Korean working mothers and fathers are facing a double jeopardy of time shortage in terms of combining their work and family roles. As a result, the level of time pressure by gender is converging toward a "never enough" phase. These findings generated policy implications and detailed suggestions.

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