• Title/Summary/Keyword: population dynamic

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Forecasting the Grain Volumes in Incheon Port Using System Dynamics (System Dynamics를 이용한 인천항 양곡화물 물동량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sung-Il;Jung, Hyun-Jae;Yeo, Gi-Tae
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.521-526
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    • 2012
  • More efficient and effective volume management of trade cargo is recently requested due to FTA with foreign country. Above all, the grain is the main cargo needed in Korean food life and was appointed as the core trade cargo during FTA. This study is aimed to forecast future demands of grain volumes which are handled at Incheon port because most of the grain volumes are traded at Incheon port in Korea. System Dynamics (SD) was used for forecasting as the methodology. Also, population, yearly grain consumption per a man, GDP, GRDP, exchange rate, and BDI were used as the factors that influence grain volumes. Simulation duration was from 2000 to 2020 and real data was used from 2000 to 2007. According to the simulation, 2020's grain volumes at Incheon port were forecasted to be about 2 million tons and grain volumes handled at Incheon port were continuously reduced. In order to measure accuracy of the simulation, this study implemented MAPE analysis. And after the implementation, the simulation was decided as a much more accurate model because MAPE value was calculated to be 6.3%. This study respectively examined factors using the sensitivity analysis. As a result, in terms of the effects on grain volume in Incheon Port, the population factor is most significant and exchange rate factor is the least.

A Dynamic Analysis of the Women's Labor Market Transition: With a Focus on the Relationship between Productive and Reproductive Labor (여성의 생산노동과 재생산노동의 상호연관성이 취업에 미치는 영향에 관한 경험적 연구)

  • 이재열
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.5-44
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    • 1996
  • Wornen's lahor market participation as well as the policy concern for wider utilization of married women, have continuously grown up. However, research efforts on the determinants of women's labor market participation, in the context of the relationship hetween life courses and active entry into lahor market, has been far behind the growing interest in this field. This study has conducted an event histoiry analysis of women's labor market transition utilizing personal occupational history data collected by the Korea Institute for Women's Development in 1991. The analysis is divided into tow parts: First part introduces logit regression to analyze the determinants of women's labor market participation and exit. The second part employs Cox regression to see the variation of transition rate between employment and non-employment. The result shows that there is a wide variation in women's labor market participation according to age, cohort, and family formation. Special note is needed for the significantly negative effect of marriage and child birth on labor market participation. The transition pattern of lower class women with less education fits well to the prediction of neo-classical economics; but the tendency of highly educated women's regression to non-employment reveals the strong influence of the unfavorable labor market structure, which can be better explained by the neo-structuralist perspective. There is a strong trade-off between productive and reproductive labor of women, which can only be corrected by strong policy implementation, such as extended child care facilities, abolition of discriminatory employment practices, and expansion of flexible part-time employment.

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The Application of Island Biogeography and Habitat Fragmentation Theory to the Conservation of Protected Areas in Korea (우리나라 보호지역의 보존에 대한 도서생물지리학과 서식처 분획화 이론의 적용)

  • 김용식;마이클모운더
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.12-24
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    • 1992
  • The application of island biogepgraphy and habitat fragmentation theory to protected area management in Korea is discussed. The accelerating destruction and degradation of natural habitats, with the associated erosion of biodiversity, demands and urgent response and a critical review of attitudes to protected area management. The flora of Korea will continue to change in both distribution and status in response to these man induced changes. The conservation and management of ecosystems, because of the variety of threats and the varying levels of biodiversity to be conserved, requires an integrated approach. Such an approach assesses the variety of threats, prevalent and potential, and responds with a strategy combining habitat, species and population management. The application of island biogeography, habitat fragmentation and edge effects theory to conservation strategies in Korea will assist in the understanding of the dynamic relationships between the isolation. degradation and fragmentation of surviving habitat patches. The application of such approaches is discussed with recommendations made for the adoption of an increasingly scientific approach to plant conservation based upon a knowledge of the conservation status and distribution characteristics of the Korean flora. Such data combined with demographic studies on topics such as Minimum Viable Population Size will allow an integrated approach to plant and habitat conservation to progress.

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A Study on Value Orientation of Health of Rural Health Center Milieu (농촌지역 보건소 환경에 있어서의 건강가치관에 관한 일 조사연구)

  • 김순자
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.17-30
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    • 1975
  • The concept and definition of nursing and her role have been changing in accordance with the socio-cultural factors of the initial society. At present, nursing is conceptualized as a health care profession assisting man to restore, maintain and promote health by providing knowledge, wilt strength and resources through various processes of interaction. Man′s behavior, of individual and group activities for health inclusive, is driven by the initial man′s value orientation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the value orientation regarding health of rural health center milieu in order to give data for; 1. the planning for the delivery of community nursing service, 2. the health education plan at all level of nursing care activities, and 3. the planning of curriculum for nursing education. A hundred opinion leaders among the labor population residing in rural areas (P-group), hundred and six professional nurses at rural health centers (N-group) were indirectly interviewed through questionaries. And ninety five of N-group were interviewed likewise of their perceptions of P-group (NP-group) from July 15, to October 15, 1974. The result is as follows: 1. Maintenance of health is revealed to be the most valued component for man′s happiness in all the three groups. (P-group: 7.30 S. D.=1.31), (N-group :7.84 S. D. =49), and (NP-group : 5.93 S. D. =2.28) 2. The average value score of the maintenance of health revealed significant difference by P〈.001 level between each of the three groups. (Between N-group and P-group : T= -4.07 P and NP ; T=-6.93, N and NP: T=-9.35) 3. Basic health maintenance activities necessary for maintenance and promotion of personal health were moderately valued by all the three groups, P-group ; 3.74 (S. D. =.43) , N-group: 3.52 (S. D. =.34), NP-group: 3.07 (S. D. :.55) Among the 8 categories of basic health maintenance activities, "food intake" was highly valued by P-group (mean value score; 4.00 S. D=.51) , "exercise and rest" and "personal cleanliness" was highly valued by both P-group (4.02, 4.08) and N-group (4.08, 4.22). 4. The mean value score of basic health maintenance activities revealed significant difference by P〈.001 level between each of the three groups (between P-group and N-group: T=-4, 07, N-and NP: T=-6.93, P and NP T=-9.35) 5. Among the 30 questionaries, dynamic activities for health maintenance were more valued in comparison to passive activities in an tile three groups. 6. In N-group, correlation between the value of basic health maintenance activities and the personal health status personal revealed moderate significance. Correlation between the value of basic health maintenance activities and the age revealed low significance. 7. In group, correlation between the value of basic health maintenance activities and; perception of personal health status revealed non significance, between the age and sex revealed low sign affiance, and between the educational status revealed moderate significance. Recommendations are as follows ; 1. The efforts towards alteration of value orientation concerning health in general in community nursing practice de focussed be that of family Planning. 2. In order to prepare professional nurses competent in understanding individual and group, social science and behavioral science be strength ended in planning nursing curriculum. 3. Milieu of nursing experience during nursing education be Planned to begin at simple nursing problem and move towards complex, f. e. home care towards health crisis situation in order to achieve dynamic role mastery.

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Developing algorithms for providing evacuation and detour route guidance under emergency conditions (재난.재해 시 대피 및 우회차량 경로 제공 알고리즘 개발)

  • Yang, Choong-Heon;Son, Young-Tae;Yang, In-Chul;Kim, Hyun-Myoung
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2009
  • The transportation network is a critical infrastructure in the event of natural and human caused disasters such as rainfall, snowfall, and terror and so on. Particularly, the transportation network in an urban area where a large number of population live is subject to be negatively affected from such events. Therefore, efficient traffic operation plans are required to assist rapid evacuation and effective detour of vehicles on the network as soon as possible. Recently, ubiquitous communication and sensor network technology is very useful to improve data collection and connection related emergency information. In this study, we develop a specific algorithm to provide evacuation route and detour information only for vehicles under emergency situations. Our algorithm is based on shortest path search technique and dynamic traffic assignment. We perform the case study to evaluate model performance applying hypothetical scenarios involved terror. Results show that the model successfully describe effective path for each vehicle under emergency situation.

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A Study on the Stormwater Drainage Method of Overflow Type for the Prevention of Urban Flood due to Abnormal Precipitation (이상강우 발생시 도시침수 방지를 위한 월류형 우수배수방법 연구)

  • Seo, Se Deok;Park, Hyung Keun;Kim, Tae Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.569-577
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    • 2019
  • Urban flooding has been a frequent phenomenon in recent years caused by the increase in maximum stormwater runoff arising from abnormal rainfall due to global warming, urban development, and development of lowlands according to population inflows. In order to respond positively against abnormal precipition in the city, it is necessary to check the GWI (Green Water Infra) effect and effectively utilize the existing stormwater detention tanks and treat stormwater to prevent local flooding. In this study, Overflow Type stormwater drainage methods are evaluated as a method of preventing urban flooding in abnormal precipitation using the Dynamic Wave Analysis SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) provided by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comparing and analyzing the Upward Watergate Type and Overflow Type, it was analyzed that the Overflow Type reduces the maximum flood discharge by 61 % and the total flood volume by 56 % in the rainfall of Typhoon Kong-rey. The application of the Overflow Type and the natural-pneumatic drainage method to the rainfall of Typhoon Soulik resulted in a 20 % reduction in maximum flood runoff and a 67 % reduction in total flood quantity. Therefore, as a solution to the abnormal rain fall, it is possible to improve the existing stormwater detection tank and install additional facilities. It is expected to be economically possible to strom drainage under limited conditions.

Prediction of Axillary Lymph Node Metastasis in Early Breast Cancer Using Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Diffusion-Weighted Imaging

  • Jeong, Eun Ha;Choi, Eun Jung;Choi, Hyemi;Park, Eun Hae;Song, Ji Soo
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate dynamic contrast-enhanced breast magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI), and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) variables, for axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis in the early stage of breast cancer. Materials and Methods: January 2011-April 2015, 787 patients with early stage of breast cancer were retrospectively reviewed. Only cases of invasive ductal carcinoma, were included in the patient population. Among them, 240 patients who underwent 3.0-T DCE-MRI, including DWI with b value 0 and $800s/mm^2$ were enrolled. MRI variables (adjacent vessel sign, whole-breast vascularity, initial enhancement pattern, quantitative kinetic parameters, signal enhancement ratio (SER), tumor apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), peritumoral ADC, and peritumor-tumor ADC ratio) clinico-pathologic variables (age, T stage, multifocality, extensive intraductal carcinoma component (EIC), estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER-2 status, Ki-67, molecular subtype, histologic grade, and nuclear grade) were compared between patients with axillary lymph node metastasis and those with no lymph node metastasis. Multivariate regression analysis was performed, to determine independent variables associated with ALN metastasis, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), for predicting ALN metastasis was analyzed, for those variables. Results: On breast MRI, moderate or prominent ipsilateral whole-breast vascularity (moderate, odds ratio [OR] 3.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-9.51 vs. prominent, OR = 15.59, 95% CI 2.52-96.46), SER (OR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.59), and peritumor-tumor ADC ratio (OR = 6.77, 95% CI 2.41-18.99), were independently associated with ALN metastasis. Among clinico-pathologic variables, HER-2 positivity was independently associated, with ALN metastasis (OR = 23.71, 95% CI 10.50-53.54). The AUC for combining selected MRI variables and clinico-pathologic variables, was higher than that of clinico-pathologic variables (P < 0.05). Conclusion: SER, moderate or prominent increased whole breast vascularity, and peritumor-tumor ADC ratio on breast MRI, are valuable in predicting ALN metastasis, in patients with early stage of breast cancer.

A Bioeconomic Analysis on the Effectiveness of Total Allowable Catch(TAC) Policy under the Rebuilding Plan (자원회복계획 하에서의 총허용어획량(TAC) 어업정책 효과에 관한 생물경제학적 분석 -미국 멕시코만의 Yellowedge Grouper 어업을 사례로-)

  • Kim, Dohoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.663-686
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    • 2003
  • This study is aimed at analyzing the effectiveness of TAC policy using a bioeconomic model. A surplus-production model is used as a population dynamic model, from which the yellowedge grouper is estimated to be overfished. As a result, a 10-year rebuilding plan using the TAC policy is established. According to the result of model, under the well-enforced system, the target stock biomass is achieved during the rebuilding period. Especially, in order to accomplish the target stock biomass, the annual quota should be allocated much less than 342 tons that NMFS recommended. The NPV over a 25-year under the TAC policy Is predicted to be less than under the status quo. The economic gains under the variable-catch TAC policy is less than under the constant-catch TAC policy as the interest rate decreases, while the NPV under the constant-catch is greater than under the variable-catch TAC policy when the interest rate is high.

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Stem and Stand Taper Model Using Spline Function and Linear Equation (Spline 함수(函數)와 선형방정식(線型方程式)을 이용한 수간(樹幹) 및 임분간곡선(林分幹曲線)모델)

  • Lee, Woo Kyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.83 no.1
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 1994
  • One of the essential factors to estimate the stem and stand growth is to correctly portray a stem form (profile). It is also required to numerically approximate a stem form in order to dynamically grasp and represent a stand growth. A whole stem form seems to be a conical form but a stem outline at various positions tapers off differently. Accordingly it is difficult to model a whole stand form with single taper equation. A stem taper equation with different coefficients on each subinterval can be useful tools to accurately portray a stem form. This article presents the derivation method of individual stem taper curve using spline function. It is also in this paper aimed to study how a stand taper curve car, be derived from the population of single stem taper curve in a stand. These taper equations numerically formulated enable to dynamically represent and prognosticate the development process of a stand and prepare the foundation of variety on growth model study and rational forest planning model.

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Quantitative Evaluation of the First Order Creatine-Kinase Reaction Rate Constant in in vivo Shunted Ovine Heart Treated with Oxandrolone Using Magnetization Transfer 31P Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MT-31P-MRS) and 1 H/31P Double-Tuned Surface Coil: a Preliminary Study

  • Thapa, Bijaya;Dahl, Marjanna;Kholmovski, Eugene;Burch, Phillip;Frank, Deborah;Jeong, Eun-Kee
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.26-36
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Children born with single ventricle physiology demonstrate poor growth rate and suffer from malnutrition, which lead to increased morbidity and mortality in this population. We assume that an anabolic steroid, oxandrolone, will promote growth in these infants by improving myocardial energy utilization. The purpose of this paper is to study the efficacy of oxandrolone on myocardial energy consumption in these infants. Materials and Methods: We modeled single ventricle physiology in a lamb by prenatally shunting the aorta to the pulmonary artery and then postnatally, we monitored cardiac energy utilization by quantitatively measuring the first order reaction rate constant, $k_f$ of the creatine-kinase reaction in the heart using magnetization transfer $^{31}P$ magnetic resonance spectroscopy, home built $^1H/^{31}P$ transmit/receive double tuned coil, and transmit/receive switch. We also performed cine MRI to study the structure and dynamic function of the myocardium and the left ventricular chamber. The spectroscopy data were processed using home-developed python software, while cine data were analyzed using Argus software. Results: We quantitatively measured both the first order reaction rate constant and ejection fraction in the control, shunted, and the oxandrolone-treated lambs. Both $k_f$ and ejection fraction were found to be more significantly reduced in the shunted lambs compared to the control lambs, and they are increased in oxandrolone-treated lambs. Conclusion: Some improvement was observed in both the first order reaction rate constant and ejection fraction for the lamb treated with oxandrolone in our preliminary study.