• Title/Summary/Keyword: population decline

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Relationship between Change of Demographic Composition and Crime : Comparing Areas with Growth in Population to Areas with Decline

  • Lee, Soochang;Kim, Daechan
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2022
  • This study is to investigate that population change as a result of the decline in population has a correlation with a decrease in crime, with the change in the demographic composition by comparing with two models: model with growth in population and one with the decline in population. We collected demographic data for all cities in Korea from the 2010 Census to 2020 offered by the Korean Statistical Information Service, with crime data comprising serious reported crime events from the Korean Nation Police Agency through requesting data related to the total number of crimes at the same as the period of demographic data. This study can identify the impacts of demographic changes as a result of population change on crime change through a comparative analysis between areas with population growth and ones with population decline. We can confirm that there are differences in determinants of crime between areas with population increase and one with population decrease from the analysis of the impact of demographic change as a result of population change on crime change.

Analysis of living population characteristics to measure urban vitality - Focusing on mobile big data - (도시활력 측정을 위한 생활인구 특성 분석 - 이동통신 빅데이터를 중심으로 -)

  • Yoko Kamata;Kwang Woo NAM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.173-187
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    • 2023
  • In an era of population decline, depopulated regions facing challenges in attracting inbound population migration must enhance urban vitality through the attraction of living populations. This study focuses on Busan, a city experiencing population decline, comparing the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of registered residents and living populations in various administrative districts (Eup-Myeon-Dong) using mobile communication big data. Administrative districts are typified based on population change patterns, and regional characteristics are analyzed using indicators related to urban decline and vitality. Spatiotemporal distribution analysis reveals generally similar density patterns between registered residents and living populations; however, a distinctive feature is observed in the city center areas where the density of registered residents is low, while the density of living populations is high. Divergent trends in spatial patterns of change between registered residents and living populations show clusters of registered population decline in low-density areas and clusters of living population decline in high-density areas. Areas adjacent to declining living populations exhibit large clusters of population changes, indicating a spillover effect from high-density to neighboring areas. Typification results reveal that, even in areas with a decline in registered residents, there is active population influx due to commuting or visiting. These areas sustain an increase in the number of businesses, confirming the presence of industrial and economic growth. However, approximately 47% of administrative districts in Busan are experiencing a decline in both registered residents and living populations, indicating ongoing regional decline. Urgent measures are needed for enhancing urban vitality. The study emphasizes the necessity of utilizing living population data as an urban planning indicator, considering the increasing limit distance of urban activities and growing interregional interaction due to advancements in transportation and communication.

Analysis of Changes in Active Village Community for the Quantitative Criteria Presentation of Marginal Village - As a Target the Chungnam Province Buyeo Country- (한계마을 정량적 기준제시를 위한 마을공동체 활동변화 분석 - 충청남도 부여군을 대상으로 -)

  • Eom, Seong Jun;Rhee, Shin Ho;Kim, Sook Jong;Jeong, Sang Sook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2016
  • The aim of this study is to suggest the quantitative standard of a marginal village. For the purpose, the study selected 43 villages with the population of 50 or less, the classification of a marginal village in accordance with advanced research and 47 villages with the population over 50 in Buyeo-gun region. The common reason of occurrence of a marginal village suggested by advanced research is a characteristic of a village or decline and extinction of a village rather than a simple index of population or aging rate. Therefore, the study assumed that decline of functions of the village would be caused by decline a function of communities consisting of the villagers. The study then assumed that the relatively low or 0 number or rate of participants would result in community functions. The study conducted t-test on basis of population and aging rate and an analysis to find the range with relatively large differences in the number of communities, participants and the rate of the participants, etc. The result showed that the community function began to decline when the population was less than 60~70 and the aging rate over 75%~85%. As the decline of functions of communities began in population of 70, the critical point was met when the population was 40 or less. With population of 40 or less, the young and the old group communities became extinct or showed rapid decrease in the number of participants. The study assumed that decline of functions of a village, a reason of occurrence of a marginal village would be decline of functions of communities, but there was no further analysis on decline or extinction of a village with population of 40 or less. There shall be further studies about whether a village of population of 40 or less is led to decline of a function or extinction of village communities.

Analyzing Migration Decision-Making Characteristics Based on Population Change Pattern and Distribution of Basic Living Services in Rural Areas (농촌지역 인구변화 특성 및 기초생활서비스 분포 특성을 고려한 이주 의사 결정 요인 분석)

  • Kim, Suyeon;Choi, Jin-Ah
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • Rural decline due to the decrease of the local population is an inevitable phenomenon, and a vicious cycle has been formed between a lack of basic living services and a population decrease in rural areas. Therefore, the study aims to derive the migration decision-making characteristics based on basic living service infrastructure data in rural areas. To do this, the population change over the past 20 years was categorized into six types, and the relationship between the classified population change types and the number of basic living service infrastructures was analyzed using decision tree analysis. Of the total 3,501 regions, 801 regions were the continuous decline type, of which 740 were rural areas. On the other hand, among 569 regions that were the continuous increase type, 401 regions were urban areas, confirming the population imbalance between rural and urban areas. As a result of the decision tree analysis on the relationship between population change types and the distribution of basic living service infrastructure, the number of daycare centers was derived as an important variable to classify the continuous increase type. Hospitals, parks, and public transportation were also found to be major basic living services affecting the classification of population change types.

Moderating Effect of Population Drop in the Relationship Between Demographic Changes and Crime Decline (인구통계학적 구조 변화와 범죄 감소 간의 관계에 있어서 인구 감소의 조절 효과 검증)

  • Soo-Chang Lee;Dae-Chan, Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to empirically verify the moderating effect of population drop on the relationship between demographic changes and crime decline in local cities facing population decline in Korea. The study employs changes in the population of young adults, men, elderly, foreign residents, and population movement as factors of demographic changes, including types of the city as a control variable in the research model. The rate of change in population drop is used as a moderator variable and the rate of change in crime decline as a dependent variable. Data are collected from 155 cities with declining populations from 2010 to 2022 through KOSIS, the National Statistics Portal, and information disclosure requests. Data collected are analyzed using moderated regression analysis. In the first and second stages of the analysis, they show that changes in the population of young adults, population movement, foreign people, population drop, and the type of city affect the change in crime. Moderated regression analysis shows that only the interaction terms among changes in the population of young adults, changes in population movement, and changes in the population of foreigners and the population drop affects change in crime significantly.

The Korea's Future ODA Policy Direction through Efficiency Analysis : Focusing on the Beneficiary Countries of ODA Projects Provided by Korea (공적개발원조 사업의 효율성 분석을 통한 미래 정책 방향성 : 우리나라 ODA 사업 수혜국을 중심으로)

  • Nam, Hyun-dong;Kim, Dae-cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to improve effectiveness of Korea's Official Development Assistance (ODA) provided to developing countries. To do this, we analyze the efficiency of ODA provided to 38 recipient countries by Korea through data envelope analysis method. The effects of four factors including population, GDP, economic decline and poverty, and external intervention on efficiency are also investigated by utilizing tobit regression analysis. As a result of the DEA efficiency analysis, it is found that the average efficiency score of the total is about 59%. By region, the average efficiency score of Asia, Africa, Central and South America, and the East and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) are about 42%, 68%, 70%, and 74%, respectively. It indicates that the Asian countries are inefficient compared to countries of the other regions. It is also found that factors of population, GDP, economic decline and poverty, and external intervention have statistically significant effects on efficiency at 0.01 significance level. In the case of the population, the higher the population of the recipient country, the more negative (-) effect is on the efficiency. The other factors such as GDP, economic decline and poverty, and external intervention have positive effects on the efficiency.

A Case Study about Koreanese-Japanese Students' Convergence Cartoon Using Photovoice

  • Kwon, Kyung-min
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2022
  • Today's universities have a keen interest in educational reform. The issue of population decline in college-age due to population decline is not new. Universities have been developing quantitatively for a long time and are now considering ways to survive rather than qualitative growth. Since the sharp decline in the school-age population due to the population decline has no clear solution immediately, universities are overcoming this crisis by creating many alternatives. Attracting international students is one of them. In this study, the effectiveness of photovoice was examined through the analysis of the case of the Korean-Japanese convergence cartoon class. The photo-voice method has sufficient potential as a teaching method for foreign convergence classes and can be expected to play a role as a teaching method suitable for students participating in convergence classes with different social, cultural, and linguistic backgrounds. In particular, in the convergence class, since participating students generate research materials through photo production, it can be a tool for inner exploration necessary for webtoon production and a tool for narrative inquiry for storytelling. It is expected that expanding the understanding and use of photo voice will have the methodological value of convergence classes. In addition, the teaching method using photo voice produced in the composition of photos and stories is likely to be used as an appropriate tool for convergence classes for students with different social, cultural, and linguistic backgrounds.

Evaluation of Genetic Effects of Demographic Bottleneck in Muzzafarnagri Sheep from India Using Microsatellite Markers

  • Arora, R.;Bhatia, S.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2009
  • Genetic variability is an important component in the ability of populations to adapt in the face of environmental change. Severe human impacts reduced Muzzafarnagri sheep of India from 500,000 in 1972 to 10,989 in 1973-74. Here we report for the first time the effect of this population decline on levels of genetic variability at 13 FAO recommended ovine microsatellite loci and contrast levels of variability to that in a breed from the same geographical region, which differed in numbers, by an order of magnitude (Marwari sheep). Of the 13 loci, 100% were polymorphic in both breeds. A high degree of genetic variation was observed within populations in terms of both allele diversity (number of alleles per locus, >4) and gene diversity (expected heterozygosity, >0.5), which implied that there is still a substantial amount of genetic diversity at the nuclear loci in a declining population. Nevertheless, overall low number of alleles per locus and relatively less abundance of low frequency alleles in Muzzafarnagri sheep suggested that genetic variability has been comparatively reduced in this population. Bottleneck analysis indicated that a genetic bottleneck did not occur during the most recent decline. In addition, we found that the differentiation among populations was moderate ($F_{ST}$= 11.8%). This study on assessment of genetic effects of the population declines in ovines is a step towards identification of genetically impoverished or healthy populations, which could prove to be a useful tool to facilitate conservation planning in this important species of small ruminants.

The Effects of Fertility and Strong Son Preference on Korean Society - On the basis of the changes of age and sex structure - (저출산수준과 강한 남아선호관이 사회에 미치는 영향 -성.연령별 인구 구조의 변화를 중심으로-)

  • 김태헌
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 1993
  • Korea fertility level has dropped since the 1960's and speed of decline has accelerated in the 1980's. In the resuls, the growth rate reached to less then 1 percent in 1990 and will be $\ulcorner$0 $\lrcorner$ percent growth in 2021. The total population will increase to 50, 586 thousand persons in 2021 then will decrease. With the rapid fertility decline the age structure of Korean population has changed : while the proportion of child population aged 0-14 is decreasing sharply, that of old-age population aged 65 and over is increasing. Because of the recent increase of sex ratio at birth, the sex structure among the young generation has been destorted; the sex ratio at age 0-4 was as high as high as 112.0 in 1990. The effects of these population phenomena on Korean society are the followings: 1) Old age dependency ratio is increasing rapidly and continuously and will be about 40.0 from the 2050's. 2) Because of the rapid decline of the number of births, the absolute number of the major labour force at age 25-34 will decrease after around 2000 and then from the 2010's become less than that in 1990. 3) Since the large fertility defferentials by womens's educational level have continued and the relation between the educational levels of mothers and children are very strong, level has dropped among higher educated women first when the average fertility level has declined in Korea, the average educational level of the children is may be expected to be relatively low and then the future productivity is will be also low, which causes the decline of 'quality of population. 4) When the high sex ratio at birth (over 110 since 1986) continues, number of brides will be short by over 20 percent from the 2010s, which will bring various kinds of social prblems. Therefore, the counter measures in concrete to relieve the heavy problems are recommended as follows: 1) The extention of the birth intervals, which helps to drop the population growth rate at the same level of number of children per women. 2) The positive supports for out-migrants, which helps to reduce the population size without any destortion of age-sex structure. 3) The defferent supports of family planning for the higher and lower classes, which helps to reduce the gaps between different ferility levels of the classes and to keep and improve the quality of population. 4)population education for both students and adults, which helps to minimize the gap between the private and public requirements.

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An Analysis of the Density of Basic Living Service Facilities in Rural Areas by Population Size (인구규모별 농촌지역 기초생활서비스 시설 밀도 변화 분석)

  • Yu, Joon-Wan;Hong, Sukyoung;Kim, Suyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.183-189
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    • 2023
  • As South Korea faces a general decline in population, similar to other regions, its rural areas are also experiencing a downward trend. This study examines how the scale and shifts in population within rural towns(eup·myeon) are affecting the number of essential services such as hospitals, laundry shops, and beauty salons. Our analysis encompassed the populations of 1,403 towns, excluding nine areas due to lack of data as of 2020. Since the availability of basic services can vary with population size, we normalized the figures to reflect the number of services per 10,000 people, allowing for a comparative analysis across different population sizes. Generally, areas with more people showed an increase in the number of services per capita. Our review of changes from 2000 to 2020 revealed patterns in how service numbers adjust with population variations. Future research should delve into more detailed trends of these facilities and forecast the rural population's future to ensure that residents in areas where service sustainability may be challenging will have full access to necessary services.