• Title/Summary/Keyword: poisson regression

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A Guideline for the Location of Bus Stop Type considering the Interval Distance of Bus Stops and Crosswalks at Mid-Block (Mid-Block상의 버스정류장과 횡단보도 이격거리를 고려한 버스정류장 배치형태 기준 연구)

  • Lee, Su-Beom;Gang, Tae-Uk;Gang, Dong-Su;Kim, Jang-Uk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.123-133
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    • 2010
  • The national standards for the installation of pedestrian crosswalks prohibits installation of crosswalks within 200 meters of nearby overpasses, underpasses, or crosswalks. In case the exceptional installation is required, the feasibility study is to be thoroughly conducted by the local police agency. However, it is an undeniable fact that the specific installation standards for optimal types and locations of crosswalks are not yet to be established. This paper examines the development of traffic accident prediction model applicable to different types and locations of bus stops(type A and type B) at mid-block intersections. Furthermore, it develops the poisson regression model which sets the "number of traffic accidents" and "traffic accident severity" as dependent variables, while using "traffic volumes", "pedestrian traffic volumes" and "the distance between crosswalks and bus stops" as independent variables. According to the traffic accident prediction model applicable to the type A bus stop location, the traffic accident severity increases relative to the number of traffic volumes, the number of pedestrian traffic volumes, and the distance between crosswalks and bus stops. In case of the type B bus stop model, the further the bus stop is from crosswalks, the number of traffic accidents decreases while it increases when traffic volumes and pedestrian traffic volumes increase. Therefore, it is reasonable to state that the bus stop design which minimizes the traffic accidents is the type C design, which is the one in combination of type A and type B, and the optimal distance is found to be 65 meters. In case of the type A design and the type B design, the optimal distances are found to be within range 60~70meters.

The Association of Social Networks and Medical Care Utilization of Elderly Living Alone Depending on Self-rated Health Status: Focusing on the Moderating Effects of Welfare Services for Elderly (주관적 건강수준에 따른 독거노인의 사회적 관계망과 의료기관 이용 간의 관련성: 노인복지서비스 참여의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Moon, Sungje;Sohn, Minsung;Yoon, Heesoo;Choi, Mankyu
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.479-490
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is to examine the association of social networks and medical care utilization of elderly living alone depending on self-rated health status, and also to measure the moderating effects of welfare services for elderly. To this purpose, the data which was collected from the 2014 National Survey on Elderly in Korea was analyzed by Chi-square test and Poisson regression. According to the results, social networks and elderly welfare services affected to medical care utilization of elderly living alone, only who aware of their self-rated health status as bad. With this group, the frequency of contact with family and participation in lifelong education had a significant effect on increasing medical care utilization. In contrast, the frequency of contact with neighbors and the participation in elderly employment program were significant to reduce the utilization of medical care. Furthermore, the moderating effects of elderly welfare services were also measured that formal social gathering has an effect of increasing the medical care utilization of elderly living alone by expansion of their social networks. Based on these results, this study consequently has an implication for suggesting expansion of elderly welfare services, which might be an alternative to social networks of elderly living alone, and also for seeking the direction of political intervention that helps health promotion and disease prevention through the research of medical care utilization.

The Effect of the Urban and Architectural Form Factors on Pedestrian Volume (미시공간에서 도시·건축형태요소가 보행량에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Gunwon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.310-318
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    • 2016
  • This study examined the correlation between microscopic factors and pedestrian volume in an urban environment, focusing on the microscopic factors that stimulate the pedestrian volume, such as density, diversity, network structure, accessibility, and the form of lots and buildings. In particular, factors already known to boost the pedestrian volume include density, diversity and accessibility, which are three variables strongly related to the concept of the 3Ds (Density, Diversity, Design) proposed by Cervero and Kockelman (1997) and the additional 2Ds (Distance to Transit, Destination Accessibility) suggested by Ewing et al. (2008). The analysis in this study was based on the 2010 survey of the floating population in Seoul, particularly on the data from Jongro-gu and Jung-gu in Gangbuk area. Data were established by analyzing the microscopic factors within a 500m radius around each of the 1,028 spots from which the pedestrian volume in Jongro-gu and Jung-gu was measured. The analysis showed that density, diversity and accessibility, three factors that were already known to be effective in increasing pedestrian volume, also have the same effect in Jongro-gu and Jung-gu.

The Effect of Childhood Experience of Child Abuse on the Adolescent-To-Parent Abuse: With a Focus on the Moderating Effects of Positive Relationship with Friends (성장기 학대경험이 청소년의 부모폭력에 미치는 영향 : 긍정적 친구관계의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jae Yop;Ryu, Won Jung;Kim, Joon Beom
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.5-27
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to 1) investigate the prevalence rate of the abuse of parents by their teenage children and the effect of child abuse on parent abuse, 2) examine moderating effect of positive friend relationships on violence toward parents, and 3) provide the implication to the adolescent-to-parent abuse. In order to accomplish these purposes, a total of 1,601 who are middle and high school students in Seoul and Gyeonggi province were utilized. Data were analyzed by frequency analysis, and Poisson regression model analysis with SPSS 21.0. The main results of this study are as follows. Frist, prevalence of parent abuse were 12.8%. Second, 40.6% of adolescents have childhood experience of abuse, and this experience has significant relationships with perpetrating behavior toward parents. Lastly, adolescents' positive relationships with friends play an important role in moderating parent abuse. These findings suggest that there is a strong need to formulate the multilateral approaching system to the parent who are victims of abuse and perpetrating adolescents in order to understand the characteristics adolescent-to-parent violence problems and intervene effectively in diverse systems. Political and practical implications on parent abuse preventive programs and coping strategies are discussed.

Development of Trip Generation Models for Shared E-Scooter by Service Areas Clustered by Level of Trip Density (서비스 구역 수준별 공유 전동킥보드 통행발생모형 개발)

  • Tai-jin Song;Kyuhyuk Kim;Changhun Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.124-140
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    • 2023
  • The rapid growth in shared E-scooters worldwide has led to many studies on the topic. The results of these studies are still in the early stages, and the main factors affecting trips are being identified. In particular, the development of trip-generation models is very important for transportation planning, and a new transportation mode for developing the models for shared E-scooters is lacking both domestically and internationally. This study aims to develop a trip generation model for shared E-scooters using significant variables by thoroughly reviewing previous studies. The trip characteristics of major service areas and other areas may differ owing to the trip characteristics of the mode. The trip generation models were developed based on the service trip density by dividing the areas by service level. The factors affecting shared E-scooter trips in major service areas included the presence of universities, closeness centrality, and cultural areas, while factors affecting the trips in minor service areas included the presence of universities, betweenness centrality, and trip distance. The developed models provide basic information that can be used to establish transport policies for introducing shared E-scooters in cities in the future.

The Effects of Gamification of e-Learning Platforms on Engagement: Focusing on Moderating Effects of Interaction, Difficulty, and Length (e-러닝 플랫폼의 게임화가 인게이지먼트에 미치는 영향: 상호작용, 스터디 난이도, 스터디 길이의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Ohsung Kim;Jungwon Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.73-91
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    • 2024
  • Recently, e-learning platforms are rapidly growing by innovating the education industry by applying various IT technologies. Because student participation in the online environment is considered a prerequisite for learning, low participation rates are considered one of the most important issues determining the performance of e-learning platforms. Gamification has grown rapidly over the past decades and is highly valued for its applicability in education because it is expected to enhance learning motivation. However, despite the interest of researchers, previous studies have reported conflicting results on the effect of gamification on participation rates in the context of e-learning platforms, and have mainly studied structural gamification, but have not sufficiently addressed the effects of content gamification. In this context, this study aims to analyze the effect of content gamification on e-learning platform engagement and to explore the boundary conditions moderating this effect. For empirical analysis, 5,017 data registered from February 11, 2022 to May 31, 2022 were analyzed for the education platform entry (https://playentry.org). The propensity score matching method and Poisson multilevel regression model were applied as analysis methods. As a result of the analysis, content gamification had a statistically significant effect on engagement, and the interaction effects of interaction and content difficulty were statistically significant.

Meteorological Factors Associated with the Number of Emergency Room Patients with Wrist-Cutting Behavior (손목자해로 응급실에 내원한 환자수와 기후인자와의 관련성)

  • Han, Jae Hyun;Suh, Seung Wan;Cho, Gyu Chong;Kim, Jung Mi;Seo, Hong Taek;Jung, Yu Jin;Seong, Su Jeong;Hwang, Jae Yeon;Lee, Won Joon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.161-167
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : Although the seasonality of suicide is a well-known phenomenon, little is reported about the seasonality of non-suicidal self-injury. The purpose of this study was to identify the seasonality of wristcutting behavior and to examine its relationship with meteorological factors. Methods : To identify the presence of seasonality, we investigated whether there was a difference in the average number of visits per month to an emergency room (ER) of an urban hospital for 226 patients with wrist-cutting behavior enrolled between December 2014 and May 2019. To ascertain significant meteorological factors, we used the multiple Poisson regression using generalized additive model with time, monthly temperature, monthly sunshine hour, and atmospheric pressure in the prior month as explanatory variables. Results : In males, the average number of monthly visits to the ER for wrist cutting behavior differed by month and was the highest in September (male : p=0.048, female : p=0.21, total : p=0.28). As a result of multiple regression analysis, the average number of patients admitted to the ER for wrist cutting behavior was related to the interaction between atmospheric pressure in the prior month and temperature in males (p=0.010), and showed a positive correlation with sunlight in females [p=0.044, β=4.70×10-3, 95% CI=(1.19×10-4, 9.27×10-3)]. Conclusions : Wrist cutting behavior shows seasonality in male, which is associated with changes in meteorological variables.

The Effects of the Revised Elderly Fixed Outpatient Copayment on the Health Utilization of the Elderly (노인외래정액제 개선이 고령층의 의료이용에 미친 영향)

  • Li-hyun Kim;Gyeong-Min Lee;Woo-Ri Lee;Ki-Bong Yoo
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.196-210
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    • 2024
  • Background: In January 2018, revised elderly fixed outpatient copayment for the elderly were implemented. When people ages 65 years and older receive outpatient treatment at clinic-level medical institutions (clinic, dental clinic, Korean medicine clinic), with medical expenses exceeding 15,000 won but not exceeding 25,000 won, their copayment rates have decreased differentially from 30%. This study aimed to examine the changes of health utilization of elderly after revised elderly fixed outpatient copayment. Methods: We used Korea health panel data from 2016 to 2018. The time period is divided into before and after the revised elderly fixed outpatient copayment. We conducted Poisson segmented regression to estimate the changes in outpatient utilization and inpatient utilization and conducted segmented regression to estimate the changes in medical expenses. Results: Immediately after the revised policy, the number of clinic and Korean medicine outpatient visits of medical expenses under 15,000 won decreased. But the number of clinic outpatient visits in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 won and Korean medicine clinic in the range of 20,000 to 25,000 won increased. Copayment in outpatient temporarily decreased. The inpatient admission rates and total medical expenses temporarily decreased but increased again. Conclusion: We confirmed the temporary increase in outpatient utilization in the medical expense segment with reduced copayment rates. And a temporary decrease in medical expenses followed by an increase again. To reduce the burden of medical expense among elderly in the long run, efforts to establish chronic disease management policies aimed at preventing disease occurrence and deterioration in advance need to continue.

A Meta-analysis of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Seoul, $1991\sim1995$ (메타분석 방법을 적용한 서울시 대기오염과 조기사망의 상관성 연구 (1991년$\sim$1995년))

  • Dockery, Douglas W.;Kim, Chun-Bae;Jee, Sun-Ha;Chung, Yong;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.177-182
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    • 1999
  • Objectives: To reexamine the association between air pollution and daily mortality in Seoul, Korea using a method of meta-analysis with the data filed for 1991 through 1995. Methods: A separate Poisson regression analysis on each district within the metropolitan area of Seoul was conducted to regress daily death counts on levels of each ambient air pollutant, such as total suspended particulates (TSP), sulfur dioxide $(SO_2)$, and ozone $(O_3)$, controlling for variability in the weather condition. We calculated a weighted mean as a meta-analysis summary of the estimates and its standard error. Results: We found that the p value from each pollutant model to test the homogeneity assumption was small (p<0.01) because of the large disparity among district-specific estimates. Therefore, all results reported here were estimated from the random effect model. Using the weighted mean that we calculated, the mortality at a $100{\mu}g/m^3$ increment in a 3-day moving average of TSP levels was 1.034 (95% Cl 1.009-1.059). The mortality was estimated to increase 6% (95% Cl 3-10%) and 3% (95% Cl 0-6%) with each 50 ppb increase for 9-day moving average of SO2 and 1-hr maximum O3, respectively. Conclusions: Like most of air pollution epidemiologic studies, this meta-analysis cannot avoid fleeing from measurement misclassification since no personal measurement was taken. However, we can expect that a measurement bias be reduced in a district-specific estimate since a monitoring station is hefter representative cf air quality of the matched district. The similar results to those from the previous studios indicated existence of health effect of air pollution at current levels in many industrialized countries, including Korea.

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A New Exploratory Research on Franchisor's Provision of Exclusive Territories (가맹본부의 배타적 영업지역보호에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lim, Young-Kyun;Lee, Su-Dong;Kim, Ju-Young
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.37-63
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    • 2012
  • In franchise business, exclusive sales territory (sometimes EST in table) protection is a very important issue from an economic, social and political point of view. It affects the growth and survival of both franchisor and franchisee and often raises issues of social and political conflicts. When franchisee is not familiar with related laws and regulations, franchisor has high chance to utilize it. Exclusive sales territory protection by the manufacturer and distributors (wholesalers or retailers) means sales area restriction by which only certain distributors have right to sell products or services. The distributor, who has been granted exclusive sales territories, can protect its own territory, whereas he may be prohibited from entering in other regions. Even though exclusive sales territory is a quite critical problem in franchise business, there is not much rigorous research about the reason, results, evaluation, and future direction based on empirical data. This paper tries to address this problem not only from logical and nomological validity, but from empirical validation. While we purse an empirical analysis, we take into account the difficulties of real data collection and statistical analysis techniques. We use a set of disclosure document data collected by Korea Fair Trade Commission, instead of conventional survey method which is usually criticized for its measurement error. Existing theories about exclusive sales territory can be summarized into two groups as shown in the table below. The first one is about the effectiveness of exclusive sales territory from both franchisor and franchisee point of view. In fact, output of exclusive sales territory can be positive for franchisors but negative for franchisees. Also, it can be positive in terms of sales but negative in terms of profit. Therefore, variables and viewpoints should be set properly. The other one is about the motive or reason why exclusive sales territory is protected. The reasons can be classified into four groups - industry characteristics, franchise systems characteristics, capability to maintain exclusive sales territory, and strategic decision. Within four groups of reasons, there are more specific variables and theories as below. Based on these theories, we develop nine hypotheses which are briefly shown in the last table below with the results. In order to validate the hypothesis, data is collected from government (FTC) homepage which is open source. The sample consists of 1,896 franchisors and it contains about three year operation data, from 2006 to 2008. Within the samples, 627 have exclusive sales territory protection policy and the one with exclusive sales territory policy is not evenly distributed over 19 representative industries. Additional data are also collected from another government agency homepage, like Statistics Korea. Also, we combine data from various secondary sources to create meaningful variables as shown in the table below. All variables are dichotomized by mean or median split if they are not inherently dichotomized by its definition, since each hypothesis is composed by multiple variables and there is no solid statistical technique to incorporate all these conditions to test the hypotheses. This paper uses a simple chi-square test because hypotheses and theories are built upon quite specific conditions such as industry type, economic condition, company history and various strategic purposes. It is almost impossible to find all those samples to satisfy them and it can't be manipulated in experimental settings. However, more advanced statistical techniques are very good on clean data without exogenous variables, but not good with real complex data. The chi-square test is applied in a way that samples are grouped into four with two criteria, whether they use exclusive sales territory protection or not, and whether they satisfy conditions of each hypothesis. So the proportion of sample franchisors which satisfy conditions and protect exclusive sales territory, does significantly exceed the proportion of samples that satisfy condition and do not protect. In fact, chi-square test is equivalent with the Poisson regression which allows more flexible application. As results, only three hypotheses are accepted. When attitude toward the risk is high so loyalty fee is determined according to sales performance, EST protection makes poor results as expected. And when franchisor protects EST in order to recruit franchisee easily, EST protection makes better results. Also, when EST protection is to improve the efficiency of franchise system as a whole, it shows better performances. High efficiency is achieved as EST prohibits the free riding of franchisee who exploits other's marketing efforts, and it encourages proper investments and distributes franchisee into multiple regions evenly. Other hypotheses are not supported in the results of significance testing. Exclusive sales territory should be protected from proper motives and administered for mutual benefits. Legal restrictions driven by the government agency like FTC could be misused and cause mis-understandings. So there need more careful monitoring on real practices and more rigorous studies by both academicians and practitioners.

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