• Title/Summary/Keyword: peak date

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Modeling Exponential Growth in Population using Logistic, Gompertz and ARIMA Model: An Application on New Cases of COVID-19 in Pakistan

  • Omar, Zara;Tareen, Ahsan
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.192-200
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    • 2021
  • In the mid of the December 2019, the virus has been started to spread from China namely Corona virus. It causes fatalities globally and WHO has been declared as pandemic in the whole world. There are different methods which can fit such types of values which obtain peak and get flattened by the time. The main aim of the paper is to find the best or nearly appropriate modeling of such data. The three different models has been deployed for the fitting of the data of Coronavirus confirmed patients in Pakistan till the date of 20th November 2020. In this paper, we have conducted analysis based on data obtained from National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad and produced a forecast of COVID-19 confirmed cases as well as the number of deaths and recoveries in Pakistan using the Logistic model, Gompertz model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) model. The fitted models revealed high exponential growth in the number of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries in Pakistan.

Serum Liver Enzyme Pattern in Birth Asphyxia Associated Liver Injury

  • Chhavi, Nanda;Zutshi, Kiran;Singh, Niranjan Kumar;Awasthi, Ashish;Goel, Amit
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.162-169
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: To study temporal pattern of serum liver enzymes levels in newborns with hepatic injury associated with birth asphyxia (BA). Methods: Singleton term newborns with BA and ${\leq}72$ hours of age admitted to neonatal intensive care unit were prospectively enrolled. Term newborns with physiological jaundice and without BA were studied as controls. Serum liver enzymes were measured at <24 hours, 24-72 hours, and at 6-12 days of age for cases and at 1-6 days of age for controls. BA was defined by 1 minute Apgar score <7 or delayed or absent cry with hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy. BA-associated liver injury was defined as serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation beyond +2 standard deviation (ALT > +2 SD) above the mean of control subjects at any of the three time points. Results: Sixty controls and 62 cases were enrolled. Thirty-five cases (56%) developed BA-associated liver injury (ALT>81 IU/L). They had higher serum levels of ALT, aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase than the control infants, with peak at 24-72 hours. In controls, serum liver enzyme levels were significantly higher in appropriate-for-date (AFD) babies than small-for-date (SFD) babies. Serum enzyme pattern and extent of elevation were comparable between SFD and AFD babies. Degree of serum liver enzyme elevation had no relationship with severity of hypoxic encephalopathy. Conclusion: Serum liver enzyme elevation is common in BA; it peaks at 24-72 hours followed by a sharp decline by 6-12 days of age. Pattern and extent of enzyme elevation are comparable between SFD and AFD babies.

Occurrence of Small Brown Plantopper (Laodelphax striatellus Fallen) and Incidened of Rice Viwus Disease by Different Seting Date in Dry Seeded Rice (벼 건답직파시기에 따른 애멸구 및 바이러스병 발생)

  • 배순도;김동길
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.173-177
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    • 1994
  • his study was conducted to Investigate the occurrence of small brown planthopper (SBPH), LaodeIpahx striatellus Fallen, and the ind~cence 01 rice virus diseases by d~fferent seeding dates in dryseeded rice. The occurrerlce of SBPH was the highest an nce seeded in May 11, followed byMay 1, May 21 and May 31. However. SBPH dld not occur on the rice seeded in June 10 duelo the rice was emerged after peak occurrence of first generailon adult of SBPH. The occurrenceof the first generation adult of SBPH was May 11 and it was 3-day earlier than that of infantnce transplanting. The ~nd~cencofe rice vlrus diseases, rice stripe vilus (RSV) and rice black-streakeddwarf virus (RBSDV), was the most severe at seeding date May 11. and then followed by May1, May 21 and May 31 Thus the incidence of "ce virus diseases was closely related with thedensity of the first generat~on adult of SBPH Rice yield was decreased by later seeding dates, although rice yield from May 1 to May 21 was relatively stable and hqii compared with laterseeding dates. Accordingly, there was slgniilcant relatlonsh~p between rice yield and seeding datesice yield and seeding dates

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Prediction of GHP Performance Using Cycle Analysis (사이클 해석을 통한 GHP 성능 예측)

  • Cha, Woo Ho;Choi, Song;Chung, Baik Young;Kim, Byung Soon;Jeon, Si Moon
    • Transactions of the KSME C: Technology and Education
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2015
  • In this paper a prediction method of GHP performance is proposed for increasing design accuracy. Two compressors with different capacity and 2311cc gas engine are used for prediction and the target capacity of GHP is 25HP. For predicting GHP performance at first the operation points are randomly selected and then as compared with compressor performance date and heat exchanger characteristic, more accurate operating points are decided through recursive calculation. Lastly engine performance date is used for calculating gas consumption volume. Predicting heating mode performance of GHP, evaporator is separated to the two section of absorbing heat in outdoor air and in engine. From the experimental results, it was found that the simulation model is good for the predicting GHP efficiency and the difference of predicted and measured efficiency is less than 5%.

Analysis of peak drought severity time and period using meteorological and hydrological drought indices (기상학적 가뭄지수와 수문학적 가뭄지수를 이용한 첨두가뭄심도 발생시점 및 가뭄기간 분석)

  • Kim, Soo Hyun;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.471-479
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzed the peak time of drought severity and drought period using meteorological and hydrological drought indices. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using rainfall data was used for meteorological drought and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) using streamflow data were used for the hydrological drought. This study was applied to the Cheongmicheon watershed which is a mixture area for rural and urban regions. The rainfall data period used in this study is 32.5 years (January of 1985~June of 2017) and the corresponding streamflow was simulated using SWAT. After the drought indices were calculated using the collected data, the characteristics of drought were analyzed by time series distribution of the calculated drought indices. Based on the results of the this study, it can be seen that hydrological drought occurs after meteorological drought. The difference between SDI and SPI peak occurrence time, difference in drought start date and average drought duration is greater than SSI and SPI. In general, SSI shows more severe than SDI. Therefore, various drought indices should be used at the identification of drought characteristics.

A Study on the Improvement of the Collection Traps of the Pine Gall Midge (Thecodiplosis japonensis Uchida et Inouye) II. Effects of Temperature by the Treatment of the Collection Traps on the Fluctuation of Emergence (솔잎혹파리 발생예찰을 위한 우화기구 개발에 관한 연구 II. 우화기구별온도효과가 우화소장에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh M.H.;Woo K.S.;Shim J.W.
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.18 no.3 s.40
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    • pp.127-132
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    • 1979
  • This experiments were performed to investigate the temperature effects, which caused by the various types of collecting trap treatments, during the overwintering period of pine gall midge larvae, on the peak adult emergence time. And the following results were obtained. 1) The maximum temperatures inside of the collection traps were significantly different each other, and the vinyl cage showed the highest degree which highering $15^{\circ}C$, and standard cage, cage-50 and funnel trap highering $3-12^{\circ}C$ in monthly average comparing to control. 2) There was no significant difference among the treatment in minimum temperatures, during the overwintering periods of larvae. 9) The peak adult emergence time were May 15 in vinyl cage plot which shortened 20 days and both standard cage and cage-50 shortened 14 day than that of control. 4) The funnel type trap treatment delayed 6 days of the peak adult emergence comparing to control, in spite of the treatment showing higher maximum and cumulative temperatures than the control plot. 5) The decadal maximum temperatures of middle part of December and March were significantly correlated with the shortening of the peak adult emergence date.

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Effects of Herbal Medicine on Breastfeeding - Analysis of Marker Substances in Saenghwa-tang by HPLC and LC/MS/MS - (산모의 한약 복용이 모유에 미치는 영향 - HPLC와 LC/MS/MS를 이용한 생화탕 지표성분 분석 -)

  • Park, Ka-Young;Lee, Ah-Young;Ban, Ji-Hye;Park, Jung-Kyung;Lee, Eun-Hee
    • The Journal of Korean Obstetrics and Gynecology
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.48-65
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: We took breast milk samples and analyzed them using HPLC and LC/MS/MS, to evaluate the effects of taking Saenghwa-tang during breastfeeding on breast milk. Methods: The study participants were 20 lactating women who admitted in Korean medical postpartum care center. Breast milks were collected from paticipants who have been administrated Saenghwa-tang for more than 3 days. We used HPLC and LC/MS/MS for the determinations of amygdalin, liquiritins, 6-gingerol, decursin and decursinol angelate in Saenghwa-tang. Results: 1. Participants' $Mean{\pm}S.D$ (standard deviation) of age is $31.05{\pm}1.96$, and 15 participants had normal delivery and 5 participants had cesarean delivery. 12 participants were primipara and 8 participants were multipara. $Mean{\pm}S.D$ of lactating date is $9.4{\pm}0.94$. 2. Using HPLC, we learned LOQ level peak that matches the peak retention time of standard components of Saenghwa-tang was not detected from 20 breast milk samples. 3. Using LC/MS/MS, decursin of Angelicae Gigantis Radix was detected from HMSP 02, HMSP 04, HMSP 06, HMSP 11, and the each concentrations are 16, 2, 64, 11 ppb. Liquiritin of Glycyrrhizae Radix was not detected from HMSP 13~HMSP 18. Conclusions: Data obtained by this approach shows that this method is reliable and suitable for determining the safety of taking Saenghwa-tang during breastfeeding.

Studies on the Density of Soybean Aphids in Different Cultivars, Plantings Date and Spacings (대두재식방법 및 품종에 따른 콩진딧물의 서식밀도에 관한 연구)

  • 정규회;권신한;이영일
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 1980
  • In order to evaluate the fluctuation of soybean aphid (Aphis glycines Matsumura) population, six leading soybean cultivars were planted on five different planting dates with three plant spacings. The survey of aphid population and climatical condition were made from June through September in 1978. According to the differences of planting dates and plant spacings the soybean aphid populations were varied, and varietal response to the aphid was significantly different. Counting of aphid infestation on top third trifoliolate leaf seemed to be efficient for the estimation of soybean aphid population.

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Plant genome analysis using flow cytometry

  • Lee Jai-Heon;Kim Kee-Young;Chung Dae-Soo;Chung Won Bok;Kwon Oh-Chang
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 1999.05a
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    • pp.162-163
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    • 1999
  • The goal of this research was (1) to describe the conditions and parameters required for the cell cycle synchronization and the accumulation of large number of metaphase cells in maize and other cereal root tips, (2) to isolate intact metaphase chromosomes from root tips suitable for characterization by flow cytometry, and (3) to construct chromosome-specific libraries from maize. Plant metaphase chromosomes have been successfully synchronized and isolated from many cereal root-tips. DNA synthesis inhibitor (hydroxyurea) was used to synchronize cell cycle, follwed by treatement with trifluralin to accumulate metaphase chromosomes. Maize flow karyotypes show substantial variation among inbred lines. thish variation should be sueful in isolating individual chromosome types. In addition, flow cytometry is a useful method to measure DNA content of individual chromosomes in a genotyps, and to detect chromosomal variations. Individual chromosome peaks have been sorted from the maize hybrid B73/Mol7. Libraries were generated form the DOP-PCR amplification product from each peak. To date, we have analyzed clones from a library constructed from the maize chromosome 1 peak. Hybridization of labeled genomic DNA to clone inserts indicated that $24\%,\;18\%,\;and\;58\%$ of the clones were highly repetitive, medium repetitive, and low copy, respectively. Fifty percent of putative low cpoy clones showed single bands on inbred screening, blots, and the remaining $50\%$ were low copy repeats. Single copy clones showing polymorphism will be mapped using recombinant inbred mapping populations. Repetitive clones are being characterized by Southern blot analysis, and will be screened by in situ hybridization for their potential utility as chromosome specific markers.

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Transvenous Balloon Valvuloplasty through Femoral Vein in a French Bulldog with Pulmonic Stenosis (대퇴정맥을 통한 풍선확장술로 치료한 프렌치불독의 폐동맥협착증 치료증례)

  • Choi, Ran;Suh, Sang-Il;Choi, Seo-Young;Hyun, Changbaig
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.334-337
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    • 2015
  • A 9-month-old castrated male French Bulldog (13 kg of body weight) was presented with the primary complaint of loud heart murmur and exercise intolerance. Diagnostic imaging studies found severe pulmonic stenosis (peak velocity > 5 m/s) with right ventricular hypertrophy. Because of higher pressure gradient between right ventricle and right ventricular outflow tract (> 100 mmHg), the dog was underwent balloon valvuloplasty through femoral vein. After procedure, the peak pulmonic velocity was reduced to 2.1 m/s (PG = 18 mmHg). Further follow-up study found no further deterioration, for 6 months to date. This is the first case report of pulmonic stenosis treated by transvenous balloon valvuloplasty through femoral vein in Korea.