• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.77-97
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• 2010

Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.95-110
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• 2013

Recently, the amount of unstructured data being generated through a variety of social media has been increasing rapidly, resulting in the increasing need to collect, store, search for, analyze, and visualize this data. This kind of data cannot be handled appropriately by using the traditional methodologies usually used for analyzing structured data because of its vast volume and unstructured nature. In this situation, many attempts are being made to analyze unstructured data such as text files and log files through various commercial or noncommercial analytical tools. Among the various contemporary issues dealt with in the literature of unstructured text data analysis, the concepts and techniques of opinion mining have been attracting much attention from pioneer researchers and business practitioners. Opinion mining or sentiment analysis refers to a series of processes that analyze participants' opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions about selected products, services, organizations, social issues, and so on. In other words, many attempts based on various opinion mining techniques are being made to resolve complicated issues that could not have otherwise been solved by existing traditional approaches. One of the most representative attempts using the opinion mining technique may be the recent research that proposed an intelligent model for predicting the direction of the stock index. This model works mainly on the basis of opinions extracted from an overwhelming number of economic news repots. News content published on various media is obviously a traditional example of unstructured text data. Every day, a large volume of new content is created, digitalized, and subsequently distributed to us via online or offline channels. Many studies have revealed that we make better decisions on political, economic, and social issues by analyzing news and other related information. In this sense, we expect to predict the fluctuation of stock markets partly by analyzing the relationship between economic news reports and the pattern of stock prices. So far, in the literature on opinion mining, most studies including ours have utilized a sentiment dictionary to elicit sentiment polarity or sentiment value from a large number of documents. A sentiment dictionary consists of pairs of selected words and their sentiment values. Sentiment classifiers refer to the dictionary to formulate the sentiment polarity of words, sentences in a document, and the whole document. However, most traditional approaches have common limitations in that they do not consider the flexibility of sentiment polarity, that is, the sentiment polarity or sentiment value of a word is fixed and cannot be changed in a traditional sentiment dictionary. In the real world, however, the sentiment polarity of a word can vary depending on the time, situation, and purpose of the analysis. It can also be contradictory in nature. The flexibility of sentiment polarity motivated us to conduct this study. In this paper, we have stated that sentiment polarity should be assigned, not merely on the basis of the inherent meaning of a word but on the basis of its ad hoc meaning within a particular context. To implement our idea, we presented an intelligent investment decision-support model based on opinion mining that performs the scrapping and parsing of massive volumes of economic news on the web, tags sentiment words, classifies sentiment polarity of the news, and finally predicts the direction of the next day's stock index. In addition, we applied a domain-specific sentiment dictionary instead of a general purpose one to classify each piece of news as either positive or negative. For the purpose of performance evaluation, we performed intensive experiments and investigated the prediction accuracy of our model. For the experiments to predict the direction of the stock index, we gathered and analyzed 1,072 articles about stock markets published by "M" and "E" media between July 2011 and September 2011.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.45 no.1
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• pp.11-25
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• 1979

There was much mass movement at many different mountain side of Peong Chang area in Kwangwon province by the influence of heavy rainfall through August/4 5, 1979. This study have done with the fact observed through the field survey and the information of the former researchers. The results are as follows; 1. Heavy rainfall area with more than 200mm per day and more than 60mm per hour as maximum rainfall during past 6 years, are distributed in the western side of the connecting line through Hoeng Seong, Weonju, Yeongdong, Muju, Namweon and Suncheon, and of the southern sea side of KeongsangNam-do. The heavy rain fan reason in the above area seems to be influenced by the mouktam range and moving direction of depression. 2. Peak point of heavy rainfall distribution always happen during the night time and seems to cause directly mass movement and serious damage. 3. Soil mass movement in Peongchang break out from the course sandy loam soil of granite group and the clay soil of lime stone and shale. Earth have moved along the surface of both bedrock or also the hardpan in case of the lime stone area. 4. Infiltration seems to be rapid on the both bedrock soil, the former is by the soil texture and the latter is by the crumb structure, high humus content and dense root system in surface soil. 5. Topographic pattern of mass movement spot is mostly the concave slope at the valley head or at the upper part of middle slope which run-off can easily come together from the surrounding slope. Soil profile of mass movement spot has wet soil in the lime stone area and loose or deep soil in the granite area. 6. Dominant slope degree of the soil mass movement site has steep slope, mostly, more than 25 degree and slope position that start mass movement is mostly in the range of the middle slope line to ridge line. 7. Vegetation status of soil mass movement area are mostly fire field agriculture area, it's abandoned grass land, young plantation made on the fire field poor forest of the erosion control site and non forest land composed mainly grass and shrubs. Very rare earth sliding can be found in the big tree stands but mostly from the thin soil site on the un-weatherd bed rock. 8. Dangerous condition of soil mass movement and land sliding seems to be estimated by the several environmental factors, namely, vegetation cover, slope degree, slope shape and position, bed rock and soil profile characteristics etc. 9. House break down are mostly happen on the following site, namely, colluvial cone and fan, talus, foot area of concave slope and small terrace or colluvial soil between valley and at the small river side Dangerous house from mass movement could be interpreted by the aerial photo with reference of the surrounding site condition of house and village in the mountain area 10. As a counter plan for the prevention of mass movement damage the technics of it's risk diagnosis and the field survey should be done, and the mass movement control of prevention should be started with the goverment support as soon as possible. The precautionary measures of house and village protection from mass movement damage should be made and executed and considered the protecting forest making around the house and village. 11. Dangerous or safety of house and village from mass movement and flood damage will be indentified and informed to the village people of mountain area through the forest extension work. 12. Clear cutting activity on the steep granite site, fire field making on the steep slope, house or village construction on the dangerous site and fuel collection in the eroded forest or the steep forest land should be surely prohibited When making the management plan the mass movement, soil erosion and flood problem will be concidered and also included the prevention method of disaster.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.13-47
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• 1975

Among the many species of bamboo, it is well known that the dwarf-type is widely distributed in the tropical regions, and the slender type in temperated zone. In the temperated zone the trees have extensively differentiated into one hundred species in 50 genera. In many oriental countries, the bamboo wood is being used as a material for construction and for the manufacture of technical instruments. The bamboo shoot is also regarded as a good and delicious edible resource. Moreover, recent medical investigation verifies that the sap of certain species of the bamboo is an antibiotic effect against cancer. Fortunately, it is very easy to propagate the bamboo trees by using cutting from southeastern Asian countries. This important resource can further be used as a significant source of pulp, which is becoming increasingly important. The classification system of this significant resource has not been completely established to date, even though its importance has been emphasized. Initiated by Canlevon Linne in the 18th century, a classification method concerning the morphological characteristics of flowers was the first step in developing a classification. But it was not an easy task to accomplish, because this type of classification system is based on the sexual organs in bamboo trees. Because the bamboo has a long life cycle of 60-120 years and classification according to this method was very difficult as the materials for the classification are not abundant and some species have changed, even though many references related to the morphological classification of bamboo trees are available nowadays. So, the certification of bamboo trees according to the morphological classification system is not reasonable for us. Consequently, the classification system of bamboo trees on the basis of endomorphological characteristics was initiated by Chinese-born Liese. And classification method based on the morphological characteristics of the vascular bundle was developed by Grosser. These classification methods are fundamentally related to Holltum's classification method, which stressed the morphology of the ovary. The author investigated to re-establish a new classification method based on the vascular sheath. Twenty-six species in 11 genera which originated from Formosa where used in the study. The results obtained from the investigation were somewhat coordinated with those of Crosser. Many difficulties were found in distinguishing the species of Bambusa and Dendrocalamus. These two species were critically differentiated under the new classification system, which is based on the existence of a separated vascular bundle sheath in the bamboo. According to these results, it is recommended that Babusa divided into two groups by placing it into either subspecies or the lower categories. This recommendation is supported by the observation that the evolutional pattern of the bamboo thunk which is from outward to inward. It is also supported by the viewpoint that the fundamental hypothesis in evolution is from simple to complex. There remained many problems to be solved through more critical examination by comparing the results to those of the classification based on the sexual organs method. The author observed the figure of the cross-sectional area of vascular trunk of bamboo tree and compared the results with those of Grosser and Liese, i.e. A, $B_1$, $B_2$, C, and D groups in classification. Group A and $B_2$ were in accordance with the results of those scholars, while group D showed many differences, Grosser and Liese divided bamboo into "g" type and "h" type according to the vascular bundle type; and they included Dendrocalamus and Bambusa in Group D without considering the type of vascular bundle sheath. However, the results obtained by the author showed that Dendrocalamus and Bambusa are differentiated from each other. By considering another group, "i" identified according to the existence of separated vascular bundle sheath. Bambusa showed to have a separated vascular bundle sheath while Dendrocalamus does not have a separated vascular bundle sheath. Moreover, Bambusa showed peculiar characteristics in the figure of vascular development, i.e., one with an inward vascular bundle sheath and the other with a bivascular bundle sheath (inward and outward). In conclusion, the bamboo species used in this experiment were classified in group D, without any separated vascular bundle sheath, and in group E, with a vascular bundle sheath. Group E was divided into two groups, i.e., and group $E_1$, with bivascular sheath, and group $E_2$, with only an inward vascular sheath. Therefore, the Bambusa in group D as described by Grosser and Liese was included in group E. Dendrocalamus seemed to be the middle group between group $E_l$ and group $E_2$ under this classification system which is summarized as follows: Phyllostachys-type: Group A - Phyllostachys, Chymonobambus, Arundinaria, Pseudosasa, Pleioblastus, Yashania Pome-type: Group $B_2$ - Schizostachyum, Melocanna Hemp-type: Group D - Dendrocalamu Bambu-type: Group $E_1$ - Bambusa ghi.