• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 2024

Private companies are increasingly required to take more substantial actions on climate change. This study introduces the principle and cases of climate (physical) risk estimation for 11 private companies in Korea. Climate risk is defined as the product of three major determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Hazard is the intensity or frequency of weather phenomena that can cause disasters. Vulnerability can be reflected in the function that explains the relationship between past weather records and loss records. The final climate risk is calculated by multiplying the function by the exposure, which is defined as the area or value of the target area exposed to the climate. Future climate risk is estimated by applying future exposure to estimated future hazard using climate model scenarios or statistical trends based on weather data. The estimated climate risks are developed into three types according to the demand of private companies: i) climate risk for financial portfolio management, ii) climate risk for port logistics management, iii) climate risk for supply chain management. We hope that this study will contribute to the establishment of the climate risk management system in the Korean industrial sector as a whole.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.58 no.6
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• pp.93-100
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• 2016

This study conducted a quantitative assessment on the environmental flows associated with climate change in the Gosam Reservoir, Korea. The application of RCP 8.5 climate change scenario has found that the peak value of High Flow Pulses has increased by 36.0 % on average compared to historical data (2001 ~ 2010), which is likely to cause disadvantage on flood control and management but the increase in peak value is expected to make a positive impact on resolving the issue of green algal blooms, promoting vegetation in surrounding areas and encouraging spawning and providing habitats for native species by releasing a larger amount of landslides as well as organic matters than the past. However, the decreasing pattern of the peak value of High Flow Pulses is quite apparent with the trend of delay on the occurrence time of peak value, necessitating a long-term impact analysis. The peak value of Large Floods shows a clear sign of decrease against climate change scenario, which is expected to lead to changes in fish species caused by degraded quality of water and decreasing habitats. A quicker occurrence of Small Floods is also expected to make an impact on the growth cycle of aquatic plants, and the reduction in occurrence frequency of Extreme Low Flows is to contribute to increasing the population of and raising the survival rate of native fish, greatly improving the aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study are expected to be useful to establish the water environment and ecological system in adapting or responding to climate change.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.16-23
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• 2022

BACKGROUND: Rice production by the current standard cultivation method is predicted to decrease due to global warming. It seems that there has been a strong warming trend in Hwaseong-si, Gyeonggi-do. This study attempted to understand the climate change in Hwaseongsi, Gyeonggi-do and to analyze the effect of climate change on rice production. METHODS AND RESULTS: The statistical and physicochemical analyses were performed using the rice cultivar 'Chucheongbyeo' yields grown at the rice paddy field plot in the Gyeonggi-do Agricultural Research and Extension Services and the weather data measured in near the rice paddy plot. CONCLUSION(S): There was no significant difference between the average rice yields per area in 2000s (2001~2010) and 2010s (2011~2020), but the rice yield variability was greater in 2010s than in 2000s. The mean, minimum, maximum temperature, and the sunshine hours were evaluated for the correlation with the rice yield. The understanding of climate change in Hwaseong-si, Gyeonggi-do and the major weather factors affecting changes in rice yield, presented in this study, would enhance scientific understanding of regional climate change, and improve rice cultivation management.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.14-27
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• 2020

The drought has occurred from the past, and has caused a lot of damage. It is important to analyze the past droughts and predict them in the future. In this study, the temperature and precipitation of the past and the future from climate change RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were analyzed for Seosan and Boryeong in the western region of Chungnam Province, which is considered as a drought-prone area on the Korean Peninsula. Comparing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) based on the past droughts, EDI was verified to be more suitable for the drought assessment. According to RCP 4.5, the frequency and intensity of droughts in the early future (2021~2060) were expected to increase and to be stronger. Particularly, severe droughts were predicted for a long time from 2022 to 2026, and from 2032 to 2039. Droughts were expected to decrease in the late future (2061~2100). From RCP 8.5, drought occurrences were predicted to increase, but the intensity of the droughts were expected to decrease in the future. As a result of evaluation of the frequencies of droughts by seasons, the region would be most affected by fall drought in the early future and by spring drought in the late future according to RCP 4.5. In the case of RCP 8.5, the seasonal effects were not clearly distinguished. These results suggest that droughts in the future do not have any tendency, but continue to occurr as in the past. Therefore, the measures and efforts to secure water resources and reinforcement of water supply facilities should be prepared to cope with droughts.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.45-55
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• 2008

The impact on streamflow and groundwater recharge considering future potential climate and land use change was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1999-2002) daily observed streamflow data for a $260.4km^2$ which has been continuously urbanized during the past couple of decades. The model was calibrated and validated with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.8 to 0.7 and 0.7 to 0.5, respectively. The CCCma CGCM2 data by two SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) of the IPCC (Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the future weather data was downscaled by Delta Change Method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. The future land uses were predicted by CA (Cellular Automata)-Markov technique using the time series land use data of Landsat images. The future land uses showed that the forest and paddy area decreased 10.8 % and 6.2 % respectively while the urban area increased 14.2 %. For the future vegetation cover information, a linear regression between monthly NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from NOAA/AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature using five years (1998 - 2002) data was derived for each land use class. The future highest NDVI value was 0.61 while the current highest NDVI value was 0.52. The model results showed that the future predicted runoff ratio ranged from 46 % to 48 % while the present runoff ratio was 59 %. On the other hand, the impact on runoff ratio by land use change showed about 3 % increase comparing with the present land use condition. The streamflow and groundwater recharge was big decrease in the future.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.59 no.1
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• pp.81-96
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• 2017

Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and the frequency of extreme climate events (e.g. heavy rain, typhoon, etc.) show unstable tendency of increase. In case of Korea, also, the frequency of heavy rainfall shows increasing tendency, thus causing natural disaster damage in downtown and agricultural areas by rainfall that exceeds the design criteria of hydraulic structures. In order to minimize natural disaster damage, it is necessary to analyze how extreme precipitation event changes under climate change. Therefore a new design criteria based on non-stationarity frequency analysis is needed to consider a tendency of future extreme precipitation event and to prepare countermeasures to climate change. And a quantitative and objective characteristic analysis could be a key to preparing countermeasures to climate change impact. In this study, non-stationarity frequency analysis was performed and inundation risk indices developed by 4 inundation characteristics (e.g. inundation area, inundation depth, inundation duration, and inundation radius) were assessed. The study results showed that future probable rainfall could exceed the existing design criteria of hydraulic structures (rivers of state: 100yr-200yr, river banks: 50yr-100yr) reaching over 500yr frequency probable rainfall of the past. Inundation characteristics showed higher value in the future compared to the past, especially in sections with tributary stream inflow. Also, the inundation risk indices were estimated as 0.14 for the past period of 1973-2015, and 0.25, 0.29, 1.27 for the future period of 2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, respectively. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to analyze future inundation damage and to establish management solutions for rivers with inundation risks.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.171-179
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• 2018

The causal relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and winter climate variability in Korea is tested by analyzing Korea Meteorological Administration Automatic Synoptic Observing System datasets for the past 59 years. Consistent with previous studies, positive phase of ENSO (El Nino) tends to cause warmer temperature and heavier precipitation in Korea in early winter with three-week lead time. This causality is quantified by performing Granger causality test. It turns out that ENSO explains an additional 9.25% of the variance of early-winter temperature anomalies in Korea, beyond that already provided by temperature itself. Likewise, 22.18% additional information is gained to explain early-winter precipitation variance by considering ENSO. This result, which differs from simple lead-lag correlation analysis, suggests that ENSO needs to be considered in predicting early-winter surface climate variability in Korea.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.29 no.9
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• pp.871-883
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• 2020

Due to recent heavy rain events, there are increasing demands for adapting infrastructure design, including drainage facilities in urban basins. Therefore, a clear definition of urban rainfall must be provided; however, currently, such a definition is unavailable. In this study, urban rainfall is defined as a rainfall event that has the potential to cause water-related disasters such as floods and landslides in urban areas. Moreover, based on design rainfall, these disasters are defined as those that causes excess design flooding due to certain rainfall events. These heavy rain scenarios require that the design of various urban rainfall facilities consider design rainfall in the target years of their life cycle, for disaster prevention. The average frequency of heavy rain in each region, inland and coastal areas, was analyzed through a frequency analysis of the highest annual rainfall in the past year. The potential change in future rainfall intensity changes the service level of the infrastructure related to hand-to-hand construction; therefore, the target year and design rainfall considering the climate change premium were presented. Finally, the change in dimensional safety according to the RCP8.5 climate change scenario was predicted.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.37 no.5_1
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• pp.833-845
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• 2021

Quantification of carbon absorption and understanding the human induced land use changes forms one of the major study with respect to global climatic changes. An attempt study has been made to quantify the carbon absorption by land use changes through remote sensing technology. However, it focused on past carbon absorption changes. So prediction of future carbon absorption changes is insufficient. This study simulated land use change using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model and predicted future changes in carbon absorption considering climate change scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Results of this study, in the RCP 4.5 scenarios there predicted to be loss of 7.92% of carbon absorption, but in the RCP 8.5 scenarios was 13.02%. Therefore, the approach used in this study is expected to enable exploration of future carbon absorption change considering other climate change scenarios.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.48-48
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• 2023

The intensified droughts under climate change are expected to threaten stable water resource availability. Droughts exceeding the magnitude of historical variability could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. It is crucial to understand how drought will evolve over time because the assumption of hydrological stationarity of the past decades would be inappropriate for future water resources management. However, the timing of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and with existing water resources management and estimate the timing of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions that persist for over several consecutive years. This new metric enables a new quantification of the urgency of adaptation and mitigation with regard to drought under climate change. The times are detected for several sub-continental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust and earlier critical times under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood, regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. Nevertheless, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable to when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.