Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Future Inundation Characteristics Analysis for the Cheongmi Stream Watershed Considering Non-stationarity of Precipitation

강우의 비정상성을 고려한 청미천 유역의 미래 침수특성 분석

  • Ryu, Jeong Hoon (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kang, Moon Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jun, Sang Min (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Jihoon (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Kyeong-Do (National Academy of Agriculture Science, Rural Development Administration)
  • Received : 2016.08.01
  • Accepted : 2016.12.05
  • Published : 2017.01.31
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Abstract

Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and the frequency of extreme climate events (e.g. heavy rain, typhoon, etc.) show unstable tendency of increase. In case of Korea, also, the frequency of heavy rainfall shows increasing tendency, thus causing natural disaster damage in downtown and agricultural areas by rainfall that exceeds the design criteria of hydraulic structures. In order to minimize natural disaster damage, it is necessary to analyze how extreme precipitation event changes under climate change. Therefore a new design criteria based on non-stationarity frequency analysis is needed to consider a tendency of future extreme precipitation event and to prepare countermeasures to climate change. And a quantitative and objective characteristic analysis could be a key to preparing countermeasures to climate change impact. In this study, non-stationarity frequency analysis was performed and inundation risk indices developed by 4 inundation characteristics (e.g. inundation area, inundation depth, inundation duration, and inundation radius) were assessed. The study results showed that future probable rainfall could exceed the existing design criteria of hydraulic structures (rivers of state: 100yr-200yr, river banks: 50yr-100yr) reaching over 500yr frequency probable rainfall of the past. Inundation characteristics showed higher value in the future compared to the past, especially in sections with tributary stream inflow. Also, the inundation risk indices were estimated as 0.14 for the past period of 1973-2015, and 0.25, 0.29, 1.27 for the future period of 2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, respectively. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to analyze future inundation damage and to establish management solutions for rivers with inundation risks.

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References

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