• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.9-13
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• 2004

Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization models use them to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.65-75
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• 2022

This study aims to forecast of Air Passenger Demand between South Korea and North Korea using the system dynamics analysis methodology that is based on the system thinking. System dynamics is not only a tool that makes the systematic thought to a model but also a computer program-based analysis methodology that mathematically models the system varying according to time variation. This study analyzed the causal relationship based on the interrelation among variables and structured them by considering various variables that affect aviation cooperation from the perspective of Air passenger demand forecasting. In addition, based on the causal relationship between variables, this study also completed the causal loop diagram that forms a feedback loop, constructed the stock-flow diagram of Inter-Korean model using Vensim program. In this study, Air passenger demand was using by the simulation variable value into System Dynamics. This study was difficult to reflect the various variables constituting the North Korea environment, and there is a limit to the occurrence of events in North Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.7-15
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• 2008

Due to the limitations in the statistical data, the existing studies adopted rough methodologies with strong assumptions in the estimation of international passenger travel demand forecast in the ASEAN region. This study aims to develop international passenger travel demand models using scientific methodologies. This study proposes a direct demand model using the immigration and emigration data between countries in the region. This is because of the difficulty of estimating trip generation and trip distribution separately due to the data limitation in the region. As there does not exist the mode choice model for the region, this study estimates a mode choice model using the Stated Preference technique. The mode choice model is separated into three categories of models according to the range of distance between the origin and destination of travel; this is to reflect the different behavior in mode choice according to the travel distance. The result of model estimations suggests that the estimated models produce resonable results statistically. It is expected that the proposed models are useful for the future travel demand estimation in the ASEAN region.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2010.06a
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• pp.816-822
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• 2010

A comprehensive review for the selection of urban rail vehicle systems that best suit Gimpo railway line is taking place with consideration of the project area characteristics in light of line planning, passenger demand, supply of rolling stock, and railway construction and operation. Various aspects of vehicle systems including passenger demand on concerned lines, regional characteristics, vehicle types, and railway construction and operational settings should be taken into consideration. In addition, request for the introduction of customized vehicle systems reflecting the convenience of transit users such as wide and hospitable inner space, low noise, flexible operation of 2 to 4 car train-set and eye catching slim bridge piers is increasing. A study on alternatives to place an order to opt for optimum rolling stock systems considering line characteristics of Gimpo City's urban railway and future passenger demand while meeting the needs of Gimpo City has been conducted.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.73-96
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• 2014

The purpose of this research is to evaluate a short-term export demand forecasting model reflecting individual passenger vehicle brands and market characteristics by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models that are based on multivariate time-series model. The short-term export demand forecasting model was created by discerning theoretical potential factors that affect the short-term export demand of individual passenger vehicle brands. Quarterly short-term export demand forecasting model for two Korean small vehicle brands (Accent and Avante) were created by using VAR model. Predictive value at t+1 quarter calculated with the forecasting models for each passenger vehicle brand and the actual amount of sales were compared and evaluated by altering subject period by one quarter. As a result, RMSE % of Accent and Avante was 4.3% and 20.0% respectively. They amount to 3.9 days for Accent and 18.4 days for Avante when calculated per daily sales amount. This shows that the short-term export demand forecasting model of this research is highly usable in terms of prediction and consistency.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.9-18
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• 2014

Small and medium-sized local airports have suffered from chronic operating deficits due to many factors except for large airports in Incheon, Gimpo, Jeju and Gimhae. These small and medium-sized local airports have currently been degraded to inefficient airports handling the significantly lower airline demand than their carrying capacities. In this context, this study conducted a survey on the actual conditions of the airline demand in small and medium-sized local airports for the last 10 years after the opening of the Korea Train eXpress and investigated the causes and actual conditions of an increase and a decrease in the airline demand. In addition, it analyzed the functionality, convenience and economic feasibility, competition elements in comparison with other means of transportation, and the actual competitive conditions of local airports. It investigated facility improvements through a field visit for local airports and analyzed the performance rate of passenger demands and the use rate of terminal facilities according to a change in the airline demand. This study aimed to provide basic data in the architectural planning field, needed to establish a plan for the airport revitalization of local airports with the results of an analysis on the actual conditions of small and medium-sized local airports.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.9-18
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• 2018

Administrative city has been developed step by step aiming to being a public transport-oriented new city. In spite of its primary goal, administrative city is dominated by car-oriented tansportaion system because the supply of public transportation has not been adequately and timely performed. In this study, we investigate the current situation related to (public) transportation use in administrative city. Also, we examine the issues of traffic system through a survey on residents' consciousness about public transportation use. Additionally, the analysis of demand elasticity according to the change of the conditions of using public transportation and passenger car is conducted for passenger car users. As a result, it is analyzed that as the neighborhood is more stabilized after the completion of development the resistance to the abandonment of passenger car is higher when the tide demand control method is introduced. Therefore, it is concluded that pre-emptive public transportation supply and the management of car demand management are necessary for the activation of public transportation in Administrative city.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2003.10b
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• pp.35-39
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• 2003

Effort has been given to improve demand forecast methodology of rail system since it can have great impact on project evaluation of rail system investment. However most of demand forecast softwares developed in western countries where concerns have been provided mostly to private transport and they should be updated in order to reflect our country's situation accurately. Therefore, this paper aims, especially focusing on rail system, to do comparison analysis of oversea's passenger demand forecast softwares and provide some ideas to develop the updated demand forecast system which enables to reflect our country's situation accurately. Main conclusions are that we will need to have well described model for real situation. So we will have to study for these aspects for travel demand forecasting system and develop the package architecture.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.539-546
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• 2016

It is over 12 years since the launch of Korea Train eXpress (KTX) services. Demand for the KTX has been on the increase continuously but few studies have been produced related to this phenomenon. KTX passenger demand has been constantly increasing due to influencing factors such as the expansion of network, rise of oil prices, etc. In this study, our main focus is to verify that there are other types of elements that are causing an increase in KTX demand; our approach looks at changes in social and psychological aspect that have occurred due to the reduction of travel time and cost, as well as the imposition of a five-day workweek. In other words, we considered diffusion theory in the marketing area, which affects product selection and purchasing attitudes, as a key factor that is causing passenger demand to increase. That is to say that it is hypothesized that the demand for travel on the KTX has increased due to the train's utility, which is spread by the diffusion effect Therefore, the Bass diffusion model was applied to explain the dramatic increase in KTX passenger demand. Based on this foundation, it was also discussed how certain marketing strategies that incorporate the diffusion effect should be considered variously for sustainable management of rail transportation, while considering a steady passenger demand.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.85-92
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• 2018

Although Jeju is the best cruise Secondary port in Northeast Asia, currently there are no dedicated cruise terminals. The port international passenger terminal opened in 2015 has a ferry terminal for offshore passengers and a cruise passenger function. Jeju Island is therefore constructing a cruise only terminal with the aim of opening in 2018 to meet the growing passenger demand at the Seoguipo civilian and public ports along with construction of a naval base at Gangjeong Port in Seogwipo City. It also plans to build cruise docks and cruise terminals in the Jeju New Port according to the Jeju port construction basic plan. However, during the construction and planning process of cruise terminals in Jeju, the adequacy of the terminal size is being debated and the immigration facilities are being operated. Therefore, the study analyzed the size of terminals and operation of immigration facilities appropriate for cruise passenger demand by investigating the status of cruise related facilities and operation in Jeju area. Based on this, the Commission hopes to explore the rational direction of the cruise terminal plan to revive the cruise industry in Jeju and provide high quality service to cruise passengers.