• Title/Summary/Keyword: outlying observations

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Change point analysis in Bitcoin return series : a robust approach

  • Song, Junmo;Kang, Jiwon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.511-520
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    • 2021
  • Over the last decade, Bitcoin has attracted a great deal of public interest and Bitcoin market has grown rapidly. One of the main characteristics of the market is that it often undergoes some events or incidents that cause outlying observations. To obtain reliable results in the statistical analysis of Bitcoin data, these outlying observations need to be carefully treated. In this study, we are interested in change point analysis for Bitcoin return series having such outlying observations. Since these outlying observations can affect change point analysis undesirably, we use a robust test for parameter change to locate change points. We report some significant change points that are not detected by the existing tests and demonstrate that the model allowing for parameter changes is better fitted to the data. Finally, we show that the model with parameter change can improve the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk.

Control Charts Based on Self-critical Estimation Process

  • Won, Hyung-Gyoo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.100-115
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    • 1997
  • Shewhart control chart is a basic technique to monitor the state of a process. We observe samples of size four or five and plot some statistic(e.g., mean or range) of each sample on the chart. When setting up the chart, we need to obtain u, pp.r and lower control limits. It is common practice that those limits are calculated from the preliminary 20-40 samples presumed to be homogeneous. However, it may ha, pp.n in practice that the samples are contaminated by outlying observations caused by various reasons. The presence of outlying observations make the control limits wider and hence decrease the sensitivity of the charts. In this paper, we introduce robust control charts with tighter control limits when outlying observations are present in the preliminary samples. Examples will be given via simulation study.

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Influential Points in GLMs via Backwards Stepping

  • Jeong, Kwang-Mo;Oh, Hae-Young
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.197-212
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    • 2002
  • When assessing goodness-of-fit of a model, a small subset of deviating observations can give rise to a significant lack of fit. It is therefore important to identify such observations and to assess their effects on various aspects of analysis. A Cook's distance measure is usually used to detect influential observation. But it sometimes is not fully effective in identifying truly influential set of observations because there may exist masking or swamping effects. In this paper we confine our attention to influential subset In GLMs such as logistic regression models and loglinear models. We modify a backwards stepping algorithm, which was originally suggested for detecting outlying cells in contingency tables, to detect influential observations in GLMs. The algorithm consists of two steps, the identification step and the testing step. In identification step we Identify influential observations based on influencial measures such as Cook's distances. On the other hand in testing step we test the subset of identified observations to be significant or not Finally we explain the proposed method through two types of dataset related to logistic regression model and loglinear model, respectively.

Detecting an Outlier in 2X2 Bioequivalence Trial (2X2 생물학적 동등성 시험에서 이상치 검출을 위한 통계적 방법)

  • Jeong, Gyu-Jin;Park, Sang-Gue;Woo, Hwa-Hyoung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.745-751
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    • 2009
  • Outlying or extreme observations are defined to be subject data for which one or more bioavailability measures are discordant with corresponding data for that subject and/or for the rest of the subjects in a study. The presence of outlying observations can have very serious consequences on the conclusions resulting from a bioequivalence study. Two statistical methods are proposed by generalizing the current well known methods and an illustrated example is presented with discussion.

Comparison of Parameter Estimation Methods in the Analysis of Multivariate Categorical Data with Logit Models

  • Song, Hae-Hiang
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.24-35
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    • 1983
  • In fitting models to data, selection of the most desirable estimation method and determination of the adequacy of fitted model are the central issues. This paper compares the maximum likelihood estimators and the minimum logit chi-square estimators, both being best asymptotically normal, when logit models are fitted to infant mortality data. Chi-square goodness-of-fit test and likelihood ratio one are also compared. The analysis infant mortality data shows that the outlying observations do not necessarily result in the same impact on goodness-of-fit measures.

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Robust Cross Validation Score

  • Park, Dong-Ryeon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.413-423
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    • 2005
  • Consider the problem of estimating the underlying regression function from a set of noisy data which is contaminated by a long tailed error distribution. There exist several robust smoothing techniques and these are turned out to be very useful to reduce the influence of outlying observations. However, no matter what kind of robust smoother we use, we should choose the smoothing parameter and relatively less attention has been made for the robust bandwidth selection method. In this paper, we adopt the idea of robust location parameter estimation technique and propose the robust cross validation score functions.

Diagnostics for the Cox model

  • Xue, Yishu;Schifano, Elizabeth D.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.583-604
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    • 2017
  • The most popular regression model for the analysis of time-to-event data is the Cox proportional hazards model. While the model specifies a parametric relationship between the hazard function and the predictor variables, there is no specification regarding the form of the baseline hazard function. A critical assumption of the Cox model, however, is the proportional hazards assumption: when the predictor variables do not vary over time, the hazard ratio comparing any two observations is constant with respect to time. Therefore, to perform credible estimation and inference, one must first assess whether the proportional hazards assumption is reasonable. As with other regression techniques, it is also essential to examine whether appropriate functional forms of the predictor variables have been used, and whether there are any outlying or influential observations. This article reviews diagnostic methods for assessing goodness-of-fit for the Cox proportional hazards model. We illustrate these methods with a case-study using available R functions, and provide complete R code for a simulated example as a supplement.

Firework plot for evaluating the impact of outliers in statistical inference (통계적 추론에서 특이점의 영향을 평가하기 위한 탐색적 자료분석 그림도구로서의 불꽃그림)

  • Moon, Sungho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2018
  • Outliers and influential observations often distort many numerical measures for data analysis. Jang and Anderson-Cook (Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 30, 1409-1425, 2014) proposed a graphical firework plot method for exploratory analysis purpose to provide a possible visualization of the trace of the impact of the possible outlying and influential observations on the univariate/bivariate data analysis and regression. They developed 3-D plot as well as pairwise plot for the appropriate measures of interest. We use firework plots as a graphical exploratory data analysis tool to detect outliers and evaluate the impact of outliers in statistical inference.

A Test on a Specific Set of Outlier Candidates in a Linear Model (선형모형에서 특정 이상치 후보군에 대한 검정)

  • Seo, Han Son;Yoon, Min
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.307-315
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    • 2014
  • An exact distribution of the test statistic to test for multiple outlier candidates does not generally exist; therefore, tests of individual outliers (or tests using simulated critical-values) are usually conducted instead of testing for groups of outliers. This article is on procedures to test outlying observations. We suggest a method that can be applied to arbitrary observations or multiple outlier candidates detected by an outlier detecting method. A Monte Carlo study performance is used to compare the proposed method with others.

Resistant Singular Value Decomposition and Its Statistical Applications

  • Park, Yong-Seok;Huh, Myung-Hoe
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.49-66
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    • 1996
  • The singular value decomposition is one of the most useful methods in the area of matrix computation. It gives dimension reduction which is the centeral idea in many multivariate analyses. But this method is not resistant, i.e., it is very sensitive to small changes in the input data. In this article, we derive the resistant version of singular value decomposition for principal component analysis. And we give its statistical applications to biplot which is similar to principal component analysis in aspects of the dimension reduction of an n x p data matrix. Therefore, we derive the resistant principal component analysis and biplot based on the resistant singular value decomposition. They provide graphical multivariate data analyses relatively little influenced by outlying observations.

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