• Title/Summary/Keyword: ordinary least square

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Does Disposition Effect Appear on Investor Decision During the COVID-19 Pandemic Era: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

  • ASNAWI, Said Kelana;SIAGIAN, Dergibson;ALZAH, Salam Fadillah;HALIM, Indra
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2022
  • Disposition Effect (DE) is one of the many investment biases, wherein the investors sell the profitable stocks rather quickly and they tend to hold on the loss making stocks. Various factors related to the DE are the character of investors applying risk management which is also influenced by the social media, Salient Shock (COVID-19), and in the specific case of Indonesia, the phenomenon of rumor stocks wherein the price can rise as much as up to 8500%. The study aims to provide empirical evidence regarding the DE with specific explanatory factors, namely investor behavior and rumors. Data was obtained through a questionnaire sent to 248 Indonesian Stock Exchange Investors (IDX) during the period October-November 2021 by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results show: Generation Z, women, and investors with a low education has a greater DE, risk-takers tend to have lower DE, and professionals have negative DE. Implementation of risk management will reduce DE. Social Media and the COVID-19 situation positively affect DE. Especially on stock rumors, there is evidence that investors who own rumor stocks will have a low DE. The results indicate the need for: (i) risk management, especially for Z Generation, women and low education Investors, (ii) to provide positive information so that information on social media can be responded to positively.

The Ratio of Outside Directors according to their Tenure and Firm Value (재임기간에 따른 사외이사 비율과 기업가치)

  • Lim, Sae-Hun;Park, Young-Seog
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.225-241
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of the ratio of outside directors, especially the ratio of outside directors according to their tenure, on firm value. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected total 3,861 firm-year data about companies listed KRX KOSPI market in Korea. The Pooled Ordinary Least Square Model and Panel Fixed Effects Model were hired in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, it was found that the ratio of outside directors for total sample had no significant effect on firm value, and the estimation coefficient of dummy variable for the average tenure less than 3 years had a significant positive(+) effect on firm value. Second, the ratio of outside directors corresponding to the tenure of less than 3 years had a significant positive(+) effect on the firm value. On the contrary, the ratio of outside directors corresponding to the tenure of 3 years or more had a significant negative(-) effect on firm value. Third, the ratio of outside directors corresponding to the tenure for more than 6 years did not show any significant influence on firm value. Research implications or Originality - First, if other matters are not additionally considered, keeping the tenure of outside directors shortly on average could help to increase firm value. Second, in the case of firms facing the decision to reappoint outside directors for the first time, it is highly likely that the firm value would decrease on average, so careful decisionmaking considering various aspects is required. However, this study does not take into account the legal standards for the appointment of outside directors, diversity of outside directors, and the actual independence of outside directors according to other criteria in the analysis. Therefore, if these factors are considered, there is a possibility that the empirical analysis results of this study may show different patterns.

A Study on the Analysis of Optimal Asset Allocation and Welfare Improvemant Factors through ESG Investment (ESG투자를 통한 최적자산배분과 후생개선 요인분석에 관한 연구)

  • Hyun, Sangkyun;Lee, Jeongseok;Rhee, Joon-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.171-184
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: First, this paper suggests an alternative approach to find optimal portfolio (stocks, bonds and ESG stocks) under the maximizing utility of investors. Second, we include ESG stocks in our optimal portfolio, and compare improvement of welfares in the case with and without ESG stocks in portfolio. Methods: Our main method of analysis follows Brennan et al(2002), designed under the continuous time framework. We assume that the dynamics of stock price follow the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) while the short rate have the Vasicek model. For the utility function of investors, we use the Power Utility Function, which commonly used in financial studies. The optimal portfolio and welfares are derived in the partial equilibrium. The parameters are estimated by using Kalman filter and ordinary least square method. Results: During the overall analysis period, the portfolio including ESG, did not show clear welfare improvement. In 2017, it has slightly exceeded this benchmark 1, showing the possibility of improvement, but the ESG stocks we selected have not strongly shown statistically significant welfare improvement results. This paper showed that the factors affecting optimal asset allocation and welfare improvement were different each other. We also found that the proportion of optimal asset allocation was affected by factors such as asset return, volatility, and inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, similar to traditional financial theory. Conclusion: The portfolio with ESG investment did not show significant results in welfare improvement is due to that 1) the KRX ESG Leaders 150 selected in our study is an index based on ESG integrated scores, which are designed to affect stability rather than profitability. And 2) Korea has a short history of ESG investment. During the limited analysis period, the performance of stock-related assets was inferior to bond assets at the time of the interest rate drop.

Analysis of Static Crack Growth in Asphalt Concrete using the Extended Finite Element Method (확장유한요소법을 이용한 아스팔트의 정적균열 성장 분석)

  • Zi, Goangseup;Yu, Sungmun;Thanh, Chau-Dinh;Mun, Sungho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4D
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    • pp.387-393
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    • 2010
  • This paper studies static crack growth of asphalt pavement using the extended finite element method (XFEM). To consider nonlinear characteristics of asphalt concrete, a viscoelastic constitutive equation using the Maxwell chain is used. And a linear cohesive crack model is used to regularize the crack. Instead of constructing the viscoelastic constitutive law from the Prony approximation of compliance and retardation time measured experimentally, we use a smooth log-power function which optimally fits experimental data and is infinitely differentiable. The partial moduli of the Maxwell chain from the log-power function make analysis easy because they change more smoothly in a more stable way than the ordinary method such as the least square method. Using the developed method, we can simulates the static crack growth test results satisfactorily.

Significance Analysis of Facility Fires Though Spatial Econometrics Assessment (공간계량분석 방법에 따른 시설물 화재 발생 유의성 분석)

  • Seo, Min Song;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.281-293
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    • 2020
  • Recently, large and small fires have been happening more often in Korea. Fire is one of the most frequent disasters along with traffic accidents in korean cities, and this frequency is closely related to the land use and the type of facilities. Therefore, in this study, the significance of fires was analyzed by considering land use, facility types, human and social factors and using 10 years of fire data in Jinju city. Based on this, OLS (Ordinary Least Square) regression analysis, SLM (Spatial Lag Model) and SEM (Spatial Error Model) using space weights, were compared and analyzed considering the location of the fire and each factor, then a statistical model with high suitability was presented. As a result, LISA analysis of spatial distribution patterns of fires in Jinju city was conducted, and it was proved that the frequency of fires was high in the order as follow, central commercial area, industrial area and residential area. Multiple regression analysis was performed by integrating demographic, social, and physical variables. Therefore, the three models were compared and analyzed by applying spatial weighting to the derived factors. As a result of the significance test, the spatial error model was analyzed to be the most significant. The facilities that have the highest correlation with fire occurrence were second type neighborhood facilities, followed by detached house, first type neighborhood facilities, number of households, and sales facilities. The results of this study are expected to be used as significant data to identify factors and manage fire safety in urban areas. Also, through the analysis of the standard deviation ellipsoid, the distribution characteristics of each facility in the residential area, industrial area, and central commercial area among the use areas were analyzed. In, the second type neighborhood facility with the highest fire risk was concentrated in the center. The results of these studies are expected to be used as useful data for identifying factors and managing fire safety in urban areas.

Analysis of Gamma-ray Spectrum and Assessment of Corresponding Exposure Rate by Means of Response Matrix Method (Response Matrix에 의한 감마선(線) Spectrum 및 그 조사선량(照射線量) 해석(解析))

  • Kim, Seong-Kwan;Jun, Jae-Shik
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 1986
  • A stud has been carried out for figuring out real photon spectrum from an observed gamma-ray spectrum by means of response matrix method, which is known one of the relatively convenient method for the estimation of exposure rate of a complex gamma ray field in comparison with graphical analysis and least square fitting of the measured spectrum. A 3'${\times}$3' cylindrical Nal(T1) scintillation detector in association with multichannel pulse height analyzer and six reference gamma ray sources covering the photon energy range of 0.05 to 2.0 MeV were used. In dividing the energy region for the construction of response matrix, two different approaches were attempted. One is dividing the entire energy region of interest into 20 bins, one of which corresponds to a width of 0.1 MeV to form $20{\times}20$ matrix, and another is dividing the 2 MeV region into 14 bins to form $14{\times}14$ matrix consists of $0.1(MeV)^{1/2}$ intervals assuming the resolution of the detector is dependent on square root of the incident photon energy. Inversion of thus constructed matrices was performed by a computor(P-E8/32) using the program attached to the end of this paper. The resultant exposure rates obtained by this method were in good agreement, within 10% with those calculated by ordinary formula widely used for a gamma-ray field of known energy and flux. It is concluded that the photen flux obtained by the response matrix constructed under the assumption of $E^{1/2}$ dependence is more realistic than that obtained by the matrix consist of identical energy bins in dosimetrical point of view.

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A Study on the Profitability of the Commercial Bank in Terms of Interest Rate Marketization : Based on FMOLS Model (FMOLS 모형을 이용한 상업은행 수익성에 대한 연구 : 금리 시장화의 시각에서)

  • He, Yugang
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - As an important participant in the financial markets, the commercial bank will be impacted by the interest rate marketization. Owing to the special condition of China, this paper tries to explore the impact of operating mechanisms between interest rate marketization and the profitability of the commercial Bank. Research design, data and methodology - This paper applies time series data from 2005 to 2016. Due to the short period of time series, autocorrelation often occurs. Therefore, the fully modified least squares(FMOLS) will be used to conduct an empirical analysis. The reason is that it can move off the autocorrelation between variables and disturbance term. And FMOLS also can make estimated cointegrating parameters closed to normal distribution. More importantly, in order to avoid spurious regressions, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test will be used to verify the stationarity of all variables. The total return of asset is treated as the profitability of commercial bank. The net interest spread is treated as a measurement of interest rate marketization. Both are regarded as dependent variables. The non-interest income or gross revenues and impaired loans or gross loans are treated as independent variables. The sixteen representative listed commercial banks are divided into three categories (state-owned, share-holding and city-owned) to conduct an estimation. Results - Via empirical analysis, the findings show that the net interest spread has a positive effect on the profitability of the commercial bank. More specifically, 1% increase in the net interest spread will lead 0.157% increase in the profitability of state-owned commercial bank, 0.269% increase in the profitability of share-holding commercial bank and 0.263% increase in the profitability of city-owned commercial bank. If regarding the sixteen listed commercial city as a whole, 1% increase in the net interest spread will lead 0.267% increase in the profitability of the commercial bank. Conclusions - As the interest rate marketization, the importance of interest rate on the profitability of commercial bank has become more and more significant. The empirical evidences also prove that the net interest spread can bring about the change of the commercial bank's profitability. Therefore, policy-makers of commercial banks should fully understand the operating mechanism between them.

A Study on the Single-Family House Price Determinants Analyzed by Quantile Regression: In case of locating single family houses in Seoul (분위회귀분석을 적용한 단독주택의 가격형성요인에 관한 연구: 서울시 소재 단독주택을 대상으로)

  • Yang, Seungchul
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.690-704
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    • 2014
  • Single family houses are the traditional & typical type of house in human history. But there had been little attention to single family houses in Korea so that there was little studies on single family houses. This study aimed to analyse price determinants of single family houses in Seoul, using Quantile Regression Analysis(QRA). Because single family houses has large levels of price, quantile regression analysis is more proper than Ordinary Least Square(OLS). The Results of analysis showed that, land coverage ratio, zoning, passed years, basement floor, hight of land, shape of land were important factors to single family houses price. The scale of effect of land coverage ratio to single family houses price was different to price levels of single family houses. And basement floor affected more negative effects to middle price, location and zoning had positive effects to high price single family houses. The degree of influence of determinants of single family houses price was deferent by region, KangBuk and KangNam. In KangNam, land coverage ratio and accessibilities were more important in low price single family houses, green zone and more far way is affected positive effects on single family houses price. In Kangbuk, land coverage ratio affects similar effects on single family houses price.

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Estimation of city gas demand function using time series data (시계열 자료를 이용한 도시가스의 수요함수 추정)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Euh, Seung-Seob;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.370-375
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the city gas demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the city gas demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's city gas consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as city gas price and forecasting the demand for city gas. We apply lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the city gas demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the city gas demand are estimated to be -0.522 and 0.874, respectively. They are statistically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for city gas is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the city gas is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the city gas demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for city gas is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

Estimation in a Model for Determining the Amount of Carbon in Soil and Measurement of the Influences of the Specific Factors (농경지 토양탄소량 결정모형 추정 및 요인별 영향력 계측)

  • Suh, Jeong-Min;Cho, Jae-Hwan;Son, Beung-Gu;Kang, Jum-Soon;Hong, Chang-Oh;Kim, Woon-Won;Park, Jeong-Ho;Lim, Woo-Taik;Jin, Kyung-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.11
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    • pp.1827-1833
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    • 2014
  • This study has been carried out to present the valuation system of soil carbon sequestration potentials of soil in accordance with the new climate change scenarios(RCP). For that, by analyzing variation of soil carbon of the each type of agricultural land use, it aims to develop technology to increase the amount of carbon emissions and sequestration. Among the factors which affects the estimation of determining the soil carbon model and influence power after the measurement on soil organic carbon, under the center of a causal relationship between the explanatory variables this study were investigated. Chemical fertilizers (NPK) decreased with increasing the amount of soil organic carbon and as with the first experimental results, when cultivating rice than pepper, the fact that soil organic carbon content increased has been found out. The higher the carbon dioxide concentration, the higher the amount of organic carbon in the soil and this result is reliable under a 10% significance level. On the other hand, soil organic carbon, humus carbon and hot water extractable carbon has been found out that was not affected the soils depth, sames as the result of the first year. The higher concentration of carbon dioxide, the higher carbon content of humus and hot water extractable carbon content. According to IPCC 2006 Guidelines and the new climate change scenario RCP 4.5 and the measurement results of the total amount of soil organic carbon to the crops due to abnormal climate weather, 1% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was found to be small when compared to the growing rate of increasing 0.01058% of organic carbon in the soil.