• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.63-76
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• 2016

Multiperiod portfolio selection problem attracts more and more attentions because it is in accordance with the practical investment decision-making problem. However, the existing literature on this field is almost undertaken by regarding security returns as random variables in the framework of probability theory. Different from these works, we assume that security returns are uncertain variables which may be given by the experts, and take absolute deviation as a risk measure in the framework of uncertainty theory. In this paper, a new multiperiod mean absolute deviation uncertain portfolio selection models is presented by taking transaction costs, borrowing constraints and threshold constraints into account, which an optimal investment policy can be generated to help investors not only achieve an optimal return, but also have a good risk control. Threshold constraints limit the amount of capital to be invested in each stock and prevent very small investments in any stock. Based on uncertain theories, the model is converted to a dynamic optimization problem. Because of the transaction costs, the model is a dynamic optimization problem with path dependence. To solve the new model in general cases, the forward dynamic programming method is presented. In addition, a numerical example is also presented to illustrate the modeling idea and the effectiveness of the designed algorithm.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.163-163
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• 2019

The rapidly growing global population increases the awareness of water, energy, and food security worldwide. The concept of Water, Energy, and Food nexus (hereafter, WEF nexus) has been widely introduced as a new resources management concept that integrate the water, energy, and food in a single management framework. Recently, WEF nexus analyzes not only the interconnections among the resources, but also considers the external factors (such as environment, climate change, policy, finance, etc) to enhance the resources sustainability by proper understanding of their relations. A nation-level resources management is quite complex task since multiple regions (e.g., watersheds, cities, and counties) with different characteristics are spatially interconnected and transfer the resources each other. This study proposes a multiple region WEF nexus simulation and transfer model. The model is equipped with three simulation modules, such as local nexus simulation module, regional resources transfer module, and optimal investment planning module. The model intends to determine an optimal capital investment plan (CIP), such as build-up of power plants, water/waste water treatment plants, farmland development and to determine W-E-F import/export decisions among areas. The objective is to maximize overall resources sustainability while minimize financial cost. For demonstration, the proposed model is applied to a semi-hypothetical study area with three different characterized cities. It is expected the model can be used as a decision support tool for a long-term resources management planning process.

• 무역학회지
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• 제41권2호
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• pp.29-60
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 두 나라의 대표적인 두 기업이 R&D 경쟁과 쿠르노 경쟁을 하는 상황을 전제로 외국기업의 R&D 외부효과가 국내 주요 경제변수에 어떤 영향을 미치며 나아가 국내정부의 보호수준과 어떤 관계를 갖는지에 대한 무역정책의 문제를 규명한다. 국제적 과점의 2단계 모형을 통해 우리는 자유무역과 보호무역 정책에서 존재하는 유일한 해를 구하고, 나아가 시뮬레이션 분석을 통해 R&D 투자의 외부효과에 따른 주요 경제변수들의 변화 패턴과 일국의 최적관세 패턴을 추적한다. 이론적인 주요 예측으로 기업들이 R&D 경쟁을 하고 있는 상황에서 자유무역과 보호무역 두 경우에 모두 R&D 외부효과가 클수록 R&D 투자율과 수준이 감소하고, 사회후생은 유사한 패턴을 보이지만 그 수준은 보호무역에서 상대적으로 큰 것으로 드러난다. 또 이 연구의 가장 관심사항인 R&D 투자의 외부효과와 최적관세율 간의 관계에서는 두 변수 간에 부(-)의 관계가 나타난다. 이는 정책적으로 R&D 투자의 외부효과가 커짐에 따라 최적관세율을 낮출 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.1061-1073
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• 2009

주가지수 옵션투자는 과학적인 투자기법이며 다양한 지표 및 투자전략이 개발되어 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 현재 까지 시장에 소개된 다양한 옵션투자 기법들을 적용하여 과거 옵션 데이터를 통해 사후 검증하는데 있다. 옵션 데이터는 2001년 9월부터 2007년 1월까지 실제 증권거래소에서 거래되었던 틱 데이터를 기반으로 하고 있으며 비주얼 베이직을 활용하여 옵션 백 테스팅 모델을 제안하였다. 사후 검증은 틱 데이트를 10분봉으로 변형하여 실증분석 하였으며 옵션에 관한 모든 전략을 모델에 적용시킨 만큼 전략의 유용성을 쉽게 알아 볼 수 있다. 옵션투자는 레버리지가 높아 높은 위험, 높은 이익 구조를 가치는 만큼 시장상황에 맞게 옵션전략을 구사한다면 낮은 위험으로 안정적 수익을 추구할 수 있다.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.206-222
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• 1997

The conventional analysis with which justifies government intervention of the private sector's innovation activities is the market failure approach. According to such analysis, fund allocation through autonomous market mechanisms is not optimal in technology financing because of the disparity between the desirable level of investment for society as a whole and that for private firms. To optimize the fund allocation, public policies such as subsidy, preferencial loan and venture capital investment programs are designed for technology development projects performed by private firms. They, however, have not been effective in increasing private investment for such projects. In most cases, it was found that little considerations given to the relationship between uncertainty embodied in technology development projects and each types of financing. With respect to optimizing fund allocation, technology development projects should be financed by different means according to their probability of success and the expected value of technology. Employing various theoretical models on financing decision-making we verify here that technology development projects to be supported by commercial banks or venture capital institutions is limited contingent upon levels of uncertainty adn expected value. Under the assumption that financial institutions are risk averse, loan or investment can be available only if the probability of success of the project is higher than the probability premium and the current market rate of interest. Therefore, the projects that have lower probability of success and/or small expected return are excluded from commercial loan or investment programs. However, the remaining projects, whose probability of success is low but with high expected return, may be applied under government subsidy programs. To achieve optimality of fund allocation and to activate technology financing, we conclude that there should be a systematic division of role among financial institutions including government commercial banks, and venture capital institutions.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.783-797
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• 2010

이 논문은 투자성과에 있어 자산배분의 중요성이 크다는 것에 주목하여 최적 자산배분을 달성하기 위한 투자의 수단으로써 펀드의 가능성을 살펴보고자 한다. 우선 펀드의 자산별 배분(또는 스타일)을 정의하기 위해 Sharpe(1992)가 제시한 펀드 수익률 기반 스타일 분석을 적용하였다. 정의된 펀드의 스타일이 일정기간 유지되는지 확인하기 위해 특정 개별 투자자를 가정하고 스타일 변동 허용범위를 설정한 뒤 이를 충족시키는지 살펴보았다. 국내 주식형 펀드에 한정하여 실증 분석을 수행한 결과 투자시점에 가정하였던 펀드의 스타일이 투자 예상 기간 동안 지속적으로 유지되지 않음을 확인하였고 그 원인을 파악하고자 하였다. 몇 가지 분석 상의 한계에도 불구하고 실증 분석의 결과 펀드가 투자자의 최적 자산배분 달성을 위한 투자수단으로 적절치 않다는 결론을 얻을 수 있었다.

• 정보보호학회논문지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.109-116
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• 2010

본 논문에서는 정보보호 침해에 의해 조직에서 운영하는 정보시스템의 작업처리율이 저하되는 경우를 가정하고, 이러한 정보보호 침해에 대비하기 위해 조직에서 설치하는 다양한 보안 대안들로 구성되는 포트폴리오의 경제성을 평가한다. 확률모형을 이용하여 보안 위협 발생률에 따른 포트폴리오 별 작업처리율 및 평균 수리횟수를 분석하여 투자기간 동안 발생한 매출액과 수리비용을 제시한다. 아울러 작업처리율에 따른 매출액, 포트폴리오 별 보안시스템 구축 투자비, 수리 비용에 이자율을 적용하여 투자기간 동안 손익의 현재가치를 산출한다. 연구결과는 각 조직 별로 예산 제약과 투자대안 선정기준에 맞춰 최적 투자 포트폴리오를 선택하는데 활용될 수 있다.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제15권1_2호
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• pp.109-126
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• 2004

This paper deals with two problems of optimal portfolio strategies in continuous time. The first one studies the optimal behavior of a firm who is forced to withdraw funds continuously at a fixed rate per unit time. The second one considers a firm that is faced with an uncontrollable stochastic cash flow, or random risk process. We assume the firm's income can be obtained only from the investment in two assets: a risky asset (e.g., stock) and a riskless asset (e.g., bond). Therefore, the firm's wealth follows a stochastic process. When the wealth is lower than certain legal level, the firm goes bankrupt. Thus how to invest is the fundamental problem of the firm in order to avoid bankruptcy. Under the case of different lending and borrowing rates, we obtain the optimal portfolio strategies for some reasonable objective functions that are the piecewise linear functions of the firm's current wealth and present some interesting proofs for the conclusions. The optimal policies are easy to be operated for any relevant investor.

• 산업공학
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.269-281
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• 2004

How to maintain the optimal electric power generation mix is one of the important problems in electric power industry. The objective of this study is to develop a computer model which can be used to forecast the investment in power generation unit by the plant owners after restructuring of electric power industry. Restructuring of electric power industry will make difference in decision making process of investment in power generation unit. After Privatiazation of Power Industry, Gencos will think that profit is the most important factor among all others attracting the investment in the industry. Coal power generation is better than LNG CCGT in terms of profit. However, many studies show that LNG CCGT will be main electric power generation source because the rest of factors other than profit in LNG CCGT are superior than Coal power generation. The impacts of the various government policies can be analyzed using the computer model, thus the government can formulate effective policies for achieving the desired electric power generation mix.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제39권5호
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• pp.429-439
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• 2013

The Korean Veterans' Pension Fund has previously pre-purchased Gibril Tower on Business Complex in Dubai, UAE, via a project-financed construction investment. Although the property is near completion, the investor syndicate's attempt to debt-finance due arrears was foiled in Dubai central bank's credit control of real estaterelated loans. Accordingly, the investment coordinator offered an additional capital injection, a collateralized leverage, and a maturity extension to the syndicate. If the syndicate rejects the offer, they may risk a nearcomplete capital loss and a possible default of the main contractor. Otherwise, the syndicate may still face uncertainties regarding interest receivables, principal re-payment, foreclosure, economic recession in Dubai, and the Islamic bond bill in the Korean Parliament. A possible exercise of the latter option may be due to the agency-prone nature of pension fund managers. Given these qualitative risk factors as at April 1, 2011, a real options approach-implied optimal decision suggests an extended and complete cash augmentation into the project finance deal.