• Title/Summary/Keyword: ocean forecast

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An Overview of Operations and Applications of HF Ocean Radar Networks in the Korean Coast (한국연안 고주파 해양레이더망 운영과 활용 개관)

  • Kim, Ho-Kyun;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Son, Young-Tae;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.2_2
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    • pp.351-375
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    • 2018
  • This paper aims to i) introduce the characteristics of HF ocean radar and the major results and information produced by the radar networks in the Korean coasts to the readers, ii) make an up-to-date inventory of the existing radar systems, and iii) share the information related to the radar operating skill and the ocean current data application. The number of ocean radars has been showing a significant growth over the past 20 years, currently deploying more than 44 radars in the Korean coasts. Most of radars are in operation at the present time for the purposes related to the marine safety, tidal current forecast and understanding of ocean current dynamics, mainly depending on the mission of each organization operating radar network. We hope this overview paper may help expand the applicability of the ocean radar to fisheries, leisure activity on the sea, ocean resource management, oil spill response, coastal environment restoration, search and rescue, and vessel detection etc., beyond the level of understanding of tidal and ocean current dynamics. Additionally we hope this paper contributes further to the surveillance activity on our ocean territory by founding a national ocean radar network frame and to the domestic development of ocean radar system including signal processing technology.

Orographic and Ocean Effects Associated with a Heavy Snowfall Event over Yeongdong Region (영동지역 겨울철 강수와 연관된 산악효과와 해양효과)

  • Cho, Kuh-Hee;Kwon, Tae-Young
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.57-71
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    • 2012
  • Influences of orographic and ocean effect, which depend on the detailed geographic characteristics, upon winter time (December-February) precipitation in the Yeongdong region are investigated. Most of precipitation events in the Yeongdong region during the wintertime are associated with moist northeasterly (coming from the northeast direction) winds and also the spatial distribution of precipitation shows a great difference between Mountain area (Daegwallyeong) and Coastal area (Gangneung). The linear correlation coefficient between the meteorological variables obtained from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data and precipitation amount for each precipitation type is calculated. Mountain type precipitation is dominated by northeasterly wind speed of the low level (1000 hPa and 925 hPa) and characterized with more precipitation in mountain area than coastal area. However, Coastal type precipitation is affected by temperature difference between ocean and atmosphere, and characterized with more precipitation in coastal area than mountain area. The results are summarized as follows; In the case of mountain type precipitation, the correlation coefficient between wind speed at 1000 hPa (925 hPa) and precipitation amount at Daegwallyeong is 0.60 (0.61). The correlation is statistical significant at 1% level. In the case of coastal type precipitation, the correlation coefficient of temperature difference between ocean and 925 hPa (850 hPa) over the East sea area and precipitation amount at Gangneung is 0.33 (0.34). As for the mountain type precipitation, a detailed analysis was conducted in order to verify the relationship between precipitation amount at Daegwallyeong and low level wind speed data from wind profiler in Gangneung and Buoy in the East Sea. The results also show the similar behavior. This result indicates that mountain type precipitation in the Yeongdong region is closely related with easterly wind speed. Thus, the statistical analysis of the few selected meteorological variables can be a good indicator to estimate the precipitation totals in the Yeongdong region in winter time.

Development of Oil Spills Model and Contingency Planning ill East Sea (유류확산모델 개발 및 동해의 유류오염 사고대책)

  • RYU CHEONG-RO;KIM HONG-JIN
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.4 s.65
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2005
  • There has been increasing offshore oil exploration, drilling, and production activities, as well as a huge amount of petroleum being transported by tankers and pipelines through the ocean and costal environment. Assessment must be made of the potential risk of damage resulting from the exploration, development and transportation activities. This is achieved through predictive impact evaluations of the fate of hypothetical or real oil spills. VVhen an oil spill occurs, planning and execution of cleanup measures also require the capability to forecast the short-term and long-term behavior of the spilled oil. A great amount of effort has been spent by government agencies, oil industries, and researchers over the past decade to develop more realistic models for oil spills. Numerous oil spill models have been developed and applied, most of which attempt to predict the oil spill fate and behavior. For an actual contingency planning, the oil fate and behavior model should be combined with an oil spill incident model, an environmental impact and risk model and a contingency planning model. The purpose of this review study is to give an overview of existing oil spill models that deal with the physical, chemical, biological, and socia-economical aspects of the incident, fate, and environmental impact of oil spills. After reviewing the existing models, future research needs are suggested. In the study, available oil spill models are separated into oil spill incident, oil spill fate and behavior, environmental impact and risk, and contingency planning models. The processes of the oil spill fate and behavior are reviewed in detail and the characteristics of existing oil spill fate and behavior models are examined and classified so that an ideal model may be identified. Finally, future research needs are discussed.

Simulation of the Ocean Circulation Around Ulleungdo and Dokdo Using a Numerical Model of High-Resolution Nested Grid (초고해상도 둥지격자 수치모델을 이용한 울릉도-독도 해역 해양순환 모의)

  • Kim, Daehyuk;Shin, Hong-Ryeol;Choi, Min-bum;Choi, Young-Jin;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Seo, Gwang-Ho;Kwon, Seok-Jae;Kang, Boonsoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.587-601
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    • 2020
  • The ocean circulation was simulated in the East Sea and Ulleungdo-Dokdo region using ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) model. By adopting the East Sea 3 km model and the HYCOM 9 km data, Ulleungdo 1 km model and Ulleungdo-Dokdo 300 m model were constructed with one-way grid nesting method. During the model development, a correction method was proposed for the distortion of the open boundary data which may be caused by the bathymetry data difference between the mother and child models and the interpolation/extrapolation method. Using this model, a super-high resolution ocean circulation with a horizontal resolution of 300 m near the Ulleungdo and Dokdo region was simulated for year 2018. In spite of applying the same conditions except for the initial and boundary data, the numerical models result indicated significantly different characteristics in the study area. Therefore, these results were compared and verified by using the surface current data estimated by satellites altimeter data and temperature data from NIFS (National Institute of Fisheries Science). They suggest that in general, the improvement of the one-way grid nesting with the HYCOM data on RMSE, Mean Bias, Pattern correlation and Vector correlation is greater in 300 m model than in the 1 km model. However, the nesting results of using East Sea 3 km model showed that simulations of the 1 km model were better than 300 m model. The models better resolved distinct ridge/trough structures of isotherms in the vertical sections of water temperature when using the higher horizontal resolution. Furthermore, Karman vortex street was simulated in Ulleungdo-Dokdo 300 m model due to the terrain effect of th islands that was not shown in the Ulleungdo 1 km model.

Typhoon Researches Using the Ieodo Ocean Research Station: Part I. Importance and Present Status of Typhoon Observation (이어도 종합해양과학기지를 활용한 태풍연구: Part I. 태풍관측의 중요성 및 현황)

  • Moon, Il-Ju;Shim, Jae-Seol;Lee, Dong Young;Lee, Jae Hak;Min, In-Ki;Lim, Kwan Chang
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.247-260
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    • 2010
  • A recent dramatic increase of natural hazards in the Korean peninsular (KP) due to typhoons have raised necessities for the accurate typhoon prediction. Ieodo ocean research station (IORS) has been constructed in June 2003 at the open ocean where typhoons pass frequently, aiming to observe typhoons before the landfall to the KP and hence to improve the prediction skill. This paper investigates the importance of measurements at the IORS in the typhoon research and forecast. Analysis of the best track data in the N. W. Pacific shows that about one typhoon passes over the IORS per year on the average and 54% of the KP-landfall typhoons during 59 years (1950-2008) passed by the IORS within the range of the 150-km radius. The data observed during the event of typhoons reveals that the IORS can provide useful information for the typhoon prediction prior to the landfall (mainland: before 8-10 hrs, Jeju Island: before 4-6 hrs), which may contribute to improving the typhoon prediction skill and conducting the disaster prevention during the landfall. Since 2003, nine typhoons have influenced the IORS by strong winds above 17m/s. Among them, the typhoon Maemi (0314) was the strongest and brought the largest damages in Korea. The various oceanic and atmospheric observation data at the IORS suggest that the Maemi (0314) has kept the strong intensity until the landfall as passing over warm ocean currents, while the Ewiniar (0603) has weakened rapidly as passing over the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water (YSBCW), mainly due to the storm's self-induced surface cooling. It is revealed that the IORS is located in the best place for monitering the patterns of the warm currents and the YSBCW which varies in time and space.

Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

Short-Term Variability Analysis of the Hf-Radar Data and Its Classification Scheme (HF-Radar 관측자료의 단주기 변동성 분석 및 정확도 분류)

  • Choi, Youngjin;Kim, Ho-Kyun;Lee, Dong-Hwan;Song, Kyu-Min;Kim, Dae Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.319-331
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    • 2016
  • This study explores the signal characteristics for different averaging intervals and defines representative verticies for each observatory by criterion of percent rate and variance. The shorter averaging interval shows the higher frequency variation, though the lower percent rate. In the tidal currents, we could hardly find the differences between 60-minute and 20-minute averaging. The newly defined criterion improves reliability of HF-radar data compared with the present reference which deselects the half by percent rate.

Forecasting the Demand and Supply and Diagnosing the Shortage of Marine Officer for Korean Coastal Shipping (내항 해기사 인력 수요 및 공급 예측과 인력 부족 진단)

  • Shin, Sang-Hoon;Shin, Yong-John
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.15-30
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    • 2024
  • This study examined the current status of the number of ships and marine officers in the coastal shipping in order to successfully solve the problem of the shortage of manpower. Then it forecast the number of costal ships by ship size and the demand of coastal marine officers by applying the crew quota of the Ship Personnel Act. In addition, The supply of manpower was predicted using the Markov model, reflecting the number of turnover and retirements by year, as well as the number of new entrants and incomer from ocean-going shipping. As a result of forecasts, the demand for coastal marine officers is forecast to increase from 6,057 in 2023 to 7,079 in 2030, and the supply is forecast to decrease from 5,771 in 2023 to 5,130 in 2030, showing that the manpower of shortage is worsening. This study analyzed the problem of the shortage of lower-level licensed coastal marine officers and objectively forecast the demand and supply of manpower through quantitative analysis. In order to resolve the manpower shortage, it was proposed to expand the training and supply of 5th and 6th grade low-level licensed coastal marine officers. This study will be able to provide useful data to solve the problem of shortage of manpower for coastal shipping.

A Numerical Model of Combined Inchon Bay and Han River System (인천만 및 한강체계의 수치모형)

  • 최병호;전덕일;안익장
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.130-137
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    • 1992
  • The previous model of Inchon Bay (Choi 1980) was refined to hindcast/forecast the tides in the Inchon Bay by prescribing the 8 tidal constituents at the open boundaries. A series of hindcast was performed for the period of meterologically calm condition and the simulated results were compared with limited observation showing the reasonable agreements. Preliminary stage of real-time tidal prediction over the whole Inchon Bay were briefly outlined for practical purposes. The established model were further improved by dynamically interfacing, a one dimensional representation of the Han River system. With this model the tidal propagation in the Han River were computed and simulation of recent September. 1990 flood were performed. Discussion for further model development are also described.

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Comparative Analysis of Surface Heat Fluxes in the East Asian Marginal Seas and Its Acquired Combination Data

  • Sim, Jung-Eun;Shin, Hong-Ryeol;Hirose, Naoki
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2018
  • Eight different data sets are examined in order to gain insight into the surface heat flux traits of the East Asian marginal seas. In the case of solar radiation of the East Sea (Japan Sea), Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments ver. 2 (CORE2) and the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes (OAFlux) are similar to the observed data at meteorological stations. A combination is sought by averaging these as well as the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-1 data to acquire more accurate surface heat flux for the East Asian marginal seas. According to the Combination Data, the annual averages of net heat flux of the East Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea are -61.84, -22.42, and $-97.54Wm^{-2}$, respectively. The Kuroshio area to the south of Japan and the southern East Sea were found to have the largest upward annual mean net heat flux during winter, at -460- -300 and at $-370--300Wm^{-2}$, respectively. The long-term fluctuation (1984-2004) of the net heat flux shows a trend of increasing transport of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere throughout the study area.