• Title/Summary/Keyword: nonlinear prediction

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Analysis of the Limitations of the Existing Subsidence Prediction Method Based on the Subsidence Measurement Data and Suggestions for Improvement Method Through Weighted Nonlinear Regression Analysis (기존 계측 기반 침하 예측 이론식 한계점 도출 및 가중 비선형 회귀분석을 통한 침하 예측 개선방안 제시)

  • Kwak, Tae-Young;Hong, Seongho;Lee, Ju-Hyung;Woo, Sang-Inn
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.12
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    • pp.103-112
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    • 2022
  • The existing subsidence prediction method based on the measurement data were confirmed in this study through literature research. It was confirmed that the hyperbolic method and the Asaoka method showed high accuracy, while the other prediction methods showed significantly low accuracy. Based on the analysis results, the limitations of the existing prediction equations were derived, and the improvement method of the settlement prediction equations was suggested. In this study, a weighted nonlinear regression analysis method that gives higher weight to the later data was proposed to improve the existing hyperbolic method.

Nonlinear model predictive control of chemical reactors

  • Lee, Jongku;Park, Sunwon
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1992.10b
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    • pp.419-424
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    • 1992
  • A robust nonlinear predictive control strategy using a disturbance estimator is presented. The disturbance estimator is comprised of two parts: one is the disturbance model parameter adaptation and the other is future disturbance prediction. RLSM(recurrsive least square method) with a forgetting factor is used to de the uncertain distance model parameters and for the future disturbance prediction, future process outputs and inputs projected by the process model are used. The simulation results for chemical reactors indicate that a substantial improvement in nonlinear predictive control performance is possible using the disturbance estimator.

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Application of artificial neural networks to the response prediction of geometrically nonlinear truss structures

  • Cheng, Jin;Cai, C.S.;Xiao, Ru-Cheng
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.251-262
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    • 2007
  • This paper examines the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) to the response prediction of geometrically nonlinear truss structures. Two types of analysis (deterministic and probabilistic analyses) are considered. A three-layer feed-forward backpropagation network with three input nodes, five hidden layer nodes and two output nodes is firstly developed for the deterministic response analysis. Then a back propagation training algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to train the network. The trained network is then successfully combined with a direct Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to perform a probabilistic response analysis of geometrically nonlinear truss structures. Finally, the proposed ANN is applied to predict the response of a geometrically nonlinear truss structure. It is found that the proposed ANN is very efficient and reasonable in predicting the response of geometrically nonlinear truss structures.

Settlement Prediction Accuracy Analysis of Weighted Nonlinear Regression Hyperbolic Method According to the Weighting Method (가중치 부여 방법에 따른 가중 비선형 회귀 쌍곡선법의 침하 예측 정확도 분석)

  • Kwak, Tae-Young ;Woo, Sang-Inn;Hong, Seongho ;Lee, Ju-Hyung;Baek, Sung-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2023
  • The settlement prediction during the design phase is primarily conducted using theoretical methods. However, measurement-based settlement prediction methods that predict future settlements based on measured settlement data over time are primarily used during construction due to accuracy issues. Among these methods, the hyperbolic method is commonly used. However, the existing hyperbolic method has accuracy issues and statistical limitations. Therefore, a weighted nonlinear regression hyperbolic method has been proposed. In this study, two weighting methods were applied to the weighted nonlinear regression hyperbolic method to compare and analyze the accuracy of settlement prediction. Measured settlement plate data from two sites located in Busan New Port were used. The settlement of the remaining sections was predicted by setting the regression analysis section to 30%, 50%, and 70% of the total data. Thus, regardless of the weight assignment method, the settlement prediction based on the hyperbolic method demonstrated a remarkable increase in accuracy as the regression analysis section increased. The weighted nonlinear regression hyperbolic method predicted settlement more accurately than the existing linear regression hyperbolic method. In particular, despite a smaller regression analysis section, the weighted nonlinear regression hyperbolic method showed higher settlement prediction performance than the existing linear regression hyperbolic method. Thus, it was confirmed that the weighted nonlinear regression hyperbolic method could predict settlement much faster and more accurately.

Deep neural network for prediction of time-history seismic response of bridges

  • An, Hyojoon;Lee, Jong-Han
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.83 no.3
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    • pp.401-413
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    • 2022
  • The collapse of civil infrastructure due to natural disasters results in financial losses and many casualties. In particular, the recent increase in earthquake activities has highlighted on the importance of assessing the seismic performance and predicting the seismic risk of a structure. However, the nonlinear behavior of a structure and the uncertainty in ground motion complicate the accurate seismic response prediction of a structure. Artificial intelligence can overcome these limitations to reasonably predict the nonlinear behavior of structures. In this study, a deep learning-based algorithm was developed to estimate the time-history seismic response of bridge structures. The proposed deep neural network was trained using structural and ground motion parameters. The performance of the seismic response prediction algorithm showed the similar phase and magnitude to those of the time-history analysis in a single-degree-of-freedom system that exhibits nonlinear behavior as a main structural element. Then, the proposed algorithm was expanded to predict the seismic response and fragility prediction of a bridge system. The proposed deep neural network reasonably predicted the nonlinear seismic behavior of piers and bearings for approximately 93% and 87% of the test dataset, respectively. The results of the study also demonstrated that the proposed algorithm can be utilized to assess the seismic fragility of bridge components and system.

A study on power control of nuclear reactor using revised two-level costate prediction method (개선된 two-level costate prediction method를 이용한 원자로 출력 제어)

  • 천희영;박귀태;이희정
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1986.10a
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    • pp.244-247
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    • 1986
  • A revised two-level costate prediction algorithm is developed for the optimization of nonlinear nuclear power plant. The algorithm is proved to converge very well, and appears to require substantially small computation time and storage than previous nonlinear optimization algorithm. To cope with unknown external disturbances, we construct a closed loop control system. In order to get a smaller sampling time, this paper proposes the two-level Kalman filter.

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VRIFA: A Prediction and Nonlinear SVM Visualization Tool using LRBF kernel and Nomogram (VRIFA: LRBF 커널과 Nomogram을 이용한 예측 및 비선형 SVM 시각화도구)

  • Kim, Sung-Chul;Yu, Hwan-Jo
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.722-729
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    • 2010
  • Prediction problems are widely used in medical domains. For example, computer aided diagnosis or prognosis is a key component in a CDSS (Clinical Decision Support System). SVMs with nonlinear kernels like RBF kernels, have shown superior accuracy in prediction problems. However, they are not preferred by physicians for medical prediction problems because nonlinear SVMs are difficult to visualize, thus it is hard to provide intuitive interpretation of prediction results to physicians. Nomogram was proposed to visualize SVM classification models. However, it cannot visualize nonlinear SVM models. Localized Radial Basis Function (LRBF) was proposed which shows comparable accuracy as the RBF kernel while the LRBF kernel is easier to interpret since it can be linearly decomposed. This paper presents a new tool named VRIFA, which integrates the nomogram and LRBF kernel to provide users with an interactive visualization of nonlinear SVM models, VRIFA visualizes the internal structure of nonlinear SVM models showing the effect of each feature, the magnitude of the effect, and the change at the prediction output. VRIFA also performs nomogram-based feature selection while training a model in order to remove noise or redundant features and improve the prediction accuracy. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) can be used to evaluate the prediction result when the data set is highly imbalanced. The tool can be used by biomedical researchers for computer-aided diagnosis and risk factor analysis for diseases.

Evaluation of Nonlinear Models on Predicting Turbulence-Driven Secondary Flow (난류에 의해 야기되는 이차유동 예측에 관한 비선형 난류모형의 평가)

  • Myong, Hyon-Kook
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.1814-1820
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    • 2003
  • Nonlinear relationship between Reynolds stresses and the rate of strain of nonlinear ${\kappa}-{\epsilon}$ models is evaluated theoretically by using the boundary layer assumptions against the turbulence-driven secondary flows in noncircular ducts and then their prediction performance is validated numerically through the application to the fully developed turbulent flow in a square duct. Typical predicted quantities such as mean axial and secondary velocities, turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stresses are compared with available experimental data. The nonlinear model adopted in a commercial code is found to be unable to predict accurately duct flows with the prediction level of secondary flows one order less than that of the experiment.

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Prediction of Turbulent Flow in a Square Duct with Nonlinear ${\kappa}-{\epsilon}$ Models (비선형 ${\kappa}-{\epsilon}$ 난류모델에 따른 정사각형 덕트내 난류유동 예측)

  • Myong, Hyon-Kook
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.1980-1985
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    • 2003
  • Two nonlinear ${\kappa}-{\epsilon}$ models with the wall function method are applied to the fully developed turbulent flow in a square duct. Typical predicted quantities such as axial and secondary velocities, turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stresses are compared in details both qualitatively and quantitatively with each other. A nonlinear ${\kappa}-{\epsilon}$ model with the wall function method capable of predicting accurately duct flows involving turbulence-driven secondary motion is presented in the present paper. The nonlinear ${\kappa}-{\epsilon}$ model adopted in a commercial code is found to be unable to predict accurately duct flows with the prediction level of secondary flows one order less than that of the experiment.

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An Experimental Study on Validation of Nonlinear Critical Speed (비선형 임계속도 검증을 위한 실험적 연구)

  • 정우진;김성원
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.12-18
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    • 2000
  • This paper addresses the experimental study on the nonlinear critical speed and the validity of simple prediction formulation. The experiment on nonlinear critical speed is carried out using roller rigs, which has been impossible on track because of a possibility of an accident. In addition, experiment for a bogie is performed to check the difference in modeling a full railway vehicle and a bogie. It is found that nonlinear critical speed proves to be an inherent phenomenon of a railway vehicle itself and the difference of test results between a full railway vehicle and a bogie is comparatively negligible. Finally. the accuracy of simple prediction formulation for outbreak velocity and response frequency in hunting is investigated.

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