• Title/Summary/Keyword: nonlinear global analysis

Search Result 274, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Numerical, Machine Learning and Deep-Learning based Framework for Weather Prediction

  • Bhagwati Sharan;Mohammad Husain;Mohammad Nadeem Ahmed;Anil Kumar Sagar;Arshad Ali;Ahmad Talha Siddiqui;Mohammad Rashid Hussain
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.24 no.9
    • /
    • pp.63-76
    • /
    • 2024
  • Weather forecasting has become a very popular topic nowadays among researchers because of its various effects on global lives. It is a technique to predict the future, what is going to happen in the atmosphere by analyzing various available datasets such as rain, snow, cloud cover, temperature, moisture in the air, and wind speed with the help of our gained scientific knowledge i.e., several approaches and set of rules or we can say them as algorithms that are being used to analyze and predict the weather. Weather analysis and prediction are required to prevent nature from natural losses before it happens by using a Deep Learning Approach. This analysis and prediction are the most challenging task because of having multidimensional and nonlinear data. Several Deep Learning Approaches are available: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), needs a highly calculative mathematical equation to gain the present condition of the weather. Quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN), is also used for weather prediction. In this article, we have implemented and analyzed the various distinct techniques that are being used in data mining for weather prediction.

Error Analysis of the Local Water Temperature Estimated by the Global Air Temperature Data (광역 기온자료를 이용한 국지 수온 추정오차 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Cho, Hong-Yeon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.44 no.4
    • /
    • pp.275-283
    • /
    • 2011
  • A local or site-specific water temperature is downscaled from the nation-wide air temperature that represents simulation by General Circulation Model (GCM). Both two-step and one-step method are tested and compared in three sites: Masan Bay, Lake Sihwa, and Nakdong River Estuary. Two-step method uses a linear regression model as the first step that converts nation-wide air temperature into local air temperature, and the corresponding coefficient of determination is in the range of 0.98~0.99. The second step that converts air temperature into water temperature uses a nonlinear curve, so called S-curve, and the corresponding root mean squared error (RMSE) is 2.07 for rising limb in Masan Bay, 1.93 for falling limb in Masan Bay, 2.59 for Lake Sihwa, and 1.58 for Nakdong River Estuary. In a similar way, one-step method is performed to directly convert nation-wade air temperature into local water temperature, and the corresponding RMSE is 2.28 for rising limb in Masan Bay, 1.89 for falling limb in Masan Bay, 2.55 for Lake Sihwa, and 1.52 for Nakdong River Estuary. Consequently both methods show a similar level of performance, and one-step method is recommendable in that it is simple and practical in relative terms.

A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.17-39
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

  • PDF

Structural Behavior of Composite Basement Wall According to Shear Span-to-Depth Ratio and FE Analysis Considering the Condition of Contact Surface (전단경간비에 따른 합성지하벽의 거동과 접촉면의 조건을 고려한 유한요소 해석)

  • Seo, Soo Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
    • /
    • v.15 no.6
    • /
    • pp.118-126
    • /
    • 2011
  • The objective of this paper is to study the structural behavior of Composite Basement Wall (CBW) according to shear span-to-depth ratio through an experiment and predict the nonlinear behavior of CBW by using ADINA program widely has been being used for FE analysis. Especially, this study focuses on the part of CBW in which the Reinforced Concrete (RC) is under compression stress; At the region of CBW around each floor, RC part stresses by compressive force when lateral press by soil acts on the wall. The contact condition between RC wall and steel (H-Pile) including stud connector is main factor in the analysis since it governs overall structural behavior. In order to understand the structural behavior of CBW whose RC part is under compressive stress, an experimental work and finite element analysis were performed. Main parameter in the test is shear span-to-depth ratio. For simplicity in analysis, reinforcements were not modeled as a seperated element but idealized as smeared to concrete. All elements were modeled to have bi-linear relation of material properties. Three type of contact conditions such as All Generate Option (AGO), Same Element Group Option with Tie(SEGO-T) and Same Element Group Option with Not tie(SEGO-NT) were considered in the analysis. For each analysis, the stress flow and concentration were reviewed and analysis result was compared to test one. From the test result, CBW represented ductile behavior by contribution of steel member even if it had short shear span-to-depth ration which is close to "1". The global composite behavior of CBW whose concrete wall was under compressive stress could be predicted by using contact element in ADINA program. Especially, the modeling by using AGO and SEGO-T showed more close relation on comparing with test result.

A Study on the Seismic Response of a Non-earthquake Resistant RC Frame Using Inelastic Dynamic Analyses (비선형 동적 해석을 이용한 비내진 상세 RC 골조의 지진거동 특성 분석)

  • Jeong, Seong-Hoon;Lee, Kwang-Ho;Lee, Soo-Kueon
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.381-388
    • /
    • 2010
  • In this study, characteristics of the seismic response of the non-earthquake resistant reinforced concrete (RC) frame were identified. The test building is designed to withstand only gravity loads and not in compliance with modern seismic codes. Smooth bars were utilized for the reinforcement. Members are provided with minimal amount of stirrups to withstand low levels of shear forces and the core concrete is virtually not confined. Columns are slender and more flexible than beams, and beam-column connections were built without stirrups. Through the modeling of an example RC frame, the feasibility of the fiber elementbased 3D nonlinear analysis method was investigated. Since the torsion is governed by the fundamental mode shape of the structure under dynamic loading, pushover analysis cannot predict torsional response accurately. Hence, dynamic response history analysis is a more appropriate analysis method to estimate the response of an asymmetric building. The latter method was shown to be accurate in representing global responses by the comparison of the analytical and experimental results. Analytical models without rigid links provided a good estimation of reduced stiffness and strength of the test structure due to bond-slip, by forming plastic hinges closer to the column ends. However, the absence of a proper model to represent the bond-slip poased the limitations on the current inelastic analysis schemes for the seismic analysis of buildings especially for those with round steel reinforcements. Thus, development of the appropriate bond-slip model is in need to achieve more accurate analysis.

Numerical Verification of Hybrid Optimization Technique for Finite Element Model Updating (유한요소모델개선을 위한 하이브리드 최적화기법의 수치해석 검증)

  • Jung, Dae-Sung;Kim, Chul-Young
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.10 no.6 s.52
    • /
    • pp.19-28
    • /
    • 2006
  • Most conventional model updating methods must use mathematical objective function with experimental modal matrices and analytical system matrices or must use information about the gradient or higher derivatives of modal properties with respect to each updating parameter. Therefore, most conventional methods are not appropriate for complex structural system such as bridge structures due to stability problem in inverse analysis with ill-conditions. Sometimes, moreover, the updated model may have no physical meaning. In this paper, a new FE model updating method based on a hybrid optimization technique using genetic algorithm (GA) and Holder-Mead simplex method (NMS) is proposed. The performance of hybrid optimization technique on the nonlinear problem is demonstrated by the Goldstein-Price function with three local minima and one global minimum. The influence of the objective function is evaluated by the case study of a simulated 10-dof spring-mass model. Through simulated case studies, finally, the objective function is proposed to update mass as well as stiffness at the same time. And so, the proposed hybrid optimization technique is proved to be an efficient method for FE model updating.

Assessment of Climate and Vegetation Canopy Change Impacts on Water Resources using SWAT Model (SWAT 모형을 이용한 기후와 식생 활력도 변화가 수자원에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Park, Min-Ji;Shin, Hyung-Jin;Park, Jong-Yoon;Kang, Boo-Sik;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.51 no.5
    • /
    • pp.25-34
    • /
    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the future potential climate and vegetation canopy change impact on a dam watershed hydrology. A $6,661.5\;km^2$ dam watershed, the part of Han-river basin which has the watershed outlet at Chungju dam was selected. The SWAT model was calibrated and verified using 9 year and another 7 year daily dam inflow data. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency ranged from 0.43 to 0.91. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model3 (CGCM3) data based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) B1 scenario was adopted for future climate condition and the data were downscaled by artificial neural network method. The future vegetation canopy condition was predicted by using nonlinear regression between monthly LAI (Leaf Area Index) of each land cover from MODIS satellite image and monthly mean temperature was accomplished. The future watershed mean temperatures of 2100 increased by $2.0^{\circ}C$, and the precipitation increased by 20.4 % based on 2001 data. The vegetation canopy prediction results showed that the 2100 year LAI of deciduous, evergreen and mixed on April increased 57.1 %, 15.5 %, and 62.5% respectively. The 2100 evapotranspiration, dam inflow, soil moisture content and groundwater recharge increased 10.2 %, 38.1 %, 16.6 %, and 118.9 % respectively. The consideration of future vegetation canopy affected up to 3.0%, 1.3%, 4.2%, and 3.6% respectively for each component.

Seismic response estimation of steel buildings with deep columns and PMRF

  • Reyes-Salazar, Alfredo;Soto-Lopez, Manuel E.;Gaxiola-Camacho, Jose R.;Bojorquez, Eden;Lopez-Barraza, Arturo
    • Steel and Composite Structures
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.471-495
    • /
    • 2014
  • The responses of steel buildings with perimeter moment resisting frames (PMRF) with medium size columns (W14) are estimated and compared with those of buildings with deep columns (W27), which are selected according to two criteria: equivalent resistance and equivalent weight. It is shown that buildings with W27 columns have no problems of lateral torsional, local or shear buckling in panel zone. Whether the response is larger for W14 or W27 columns, depends on the level of deformation, the response parameter and the structural modeling under consideration. Modeling buildings as two-dimensional structures result in an overestimation of the response. For multiple response parameters, the W14 columns produce larger responses for elastic behavior. The axial load on columns may be significantly larger for the buildings with W14 columns. The interstory displacements are always larger for W14 columns, particularly for equivalent weight and plane models, implying that using deep columns helps to reduce interstory displacements. This is particularly important for tall buildings where the design is usually controlled by the drift limit state. The interstory shears in interior gravity frames (GF) are significantly reduced when deep columns are used. This helps to counteract the no conservative effect that results in design practice, when lateral seismic loads are not considered in GF of steel buildings with PMRF. Thus, the behavior of steel buildings with deep columns, in general, may be superior to that of buildings with medium columns, using less weight and representing, therefore, a lower cost.

Position-Fix Improvement of Integrated GPS and DR System Using Two-Level Noise Model (이중 잡음모델을 채용한 통합 GPS/DR 시스템의 측위성능개선)

  • Nam, Chan Woong;Lim, Sang Seok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
    • /
    • v.2 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-83
    • /
    • 1998
  • This paper presents a low cost and high accuracy integrated Global Positioning System (GPS)/dead reckoning (DR) system. The integrated GPS/DR system is capable of providing highly accurate position data in real-time or in post processing. Based on the analysis of the main error source affecting the DR measurements, an eight-state mathematical model for the integrated system has been developed to represent these errors. This eight-state model has been used to build a nonlinear filter for the estimation of the state vector at every epoch when DR measurements are available. The accuracy of the system has been evaluated using 1Hz DR measurements and 3Hz continuous GPS position estimates. Through numerical simulation the system performance during periods with GPS outage has been investigated by comparing two different noise models. While one model is the position estimation filter containing a single noise model, the other filter includes two-level noise model. The simulation results have shown that the estimation filter containing two-level noise model for computing the position error of the integrated GPS/DR system yields better performance than that the filter including the single-level noise model does.

  • PDF

A Study for an Evaluation of Flexural Strength of Plate Girders Reinforced with One Line of Longitudinal Stiffeners (수평보강재로 1단 보강된 플레이트거더의 휨강도 평가 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Byung Jun;Park, Yong Myung;Mykyta, Kovalenko;Cho, Kwang Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
    • /
    • v.29 no.4
    • /
    • pp.281-289
    • /
    • 2017
  • The current AASHTO LRFD and Eurocode 3 specifications have been found to underestimate the flexural strength of longitudinally reinforced plate girders. This is because the web-flange interaction is not considered appropriately when a web is reinforced. The buckling strength of compression flange increases due to the improved rotational restraint to the compression flange. Also, the compression flange and the longitudinal stiffener could constrain the web rotation, so that a certain area of the web reaches yield strength. In this study, a model for evaluating the flexural strength is proposed for plate girders reinforced with one line of longitudinal stiffeners, considering the increase of the buckling strength of the compression flange and the actual stress distribution of the web. The flexural strengths of the conventional steel(SM490) and the high-strength steel(HSB800) plate girders were evaluated from the nonlinear analysis and the applicability of the proposed model was analyzed.