• 산업기술연구
• /
• 제29권B호
• /
• pp.17-23
• /
• 2009

In many cases, clustering algorithms have been used for extracting and discovering useful information from non-linear data. They have made a great effect on performances of the systems dealing with non-linear data. Thus, this paper presents a new approach called hierarchically structured clustering algorithm, and it is applied to the prediction system for non-linear time series data. The proposed hierarchically structured clustering algorithm (called HCKA: Hierarchical Cross-correlation and K-means clustering Algorithms) in which the cross-correlation and k-means clustering algorithm are combined can accept the correlationship of non-linear time series as well as statistical characteristics. First, the optimal differences of data are generated, which can suitably reveal the characteristics of non-linear time series. Second, the generated differences are classified into the upper clusters for their predictors by the cross-correlation clustering algorithm, and then each classified differences are classified again into the lower fuzzy sets by the k-means clustering algorithm. As a result, the proposed method can give an efficient classification and improve the performance. Finally, we demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed HCKA via typical time series examples.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제48권2호
• /
• pp.168-175
• /
• 1999

In this paper, a modified RBF(Radial Basis Function) network structure is suggested for the prediction of a time-series with non-linear, non-stationary characteristics. Coventional RBF network predicting time series by using past outputs sense the trajectory of the time series and react when there exists strong relation between input and hidden activation function's RBF center. But this response is highly sensitive to level and trend of time serieses. In order to overcome such dependencies, hidden activation functions are modified to react to the increments of input variable and multiplied by increment(or dectement) for prediction. When the suggested structure is applied to prediction of Macyey-Glass chaotic time series, Lorenz equation, and Rossler equation, improved performances are obtained.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한전기학회 1998년도 하계학술대회 논문집 G
• /
• pp.2299-2301
• /
• 1998

In this paper, a modified RBF (Radial Basis Function) neural network structure is suggested for the prediction of time series with non-linear, non-stationary characteristics. Conventional RBF neural network predicting time series by using past outputs is for sensing the trajectory of the time series and for reacting when there exists strong relation between input and hidden neuron's RBF center. But this response is highly sensitive to level and trend of time serieses. In order to overcome such dependencies, hidden neurons are modified to react to the increments of input variable and multiplied by increments(or decrements) of out puts for prediction. When the suggested structure is applied to prediction of Lorenz equation, and Rossler equation, improved performances are obtainable.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
• /
• 제15권5호
• /
• pp.1201-1210
• /
• 2019

Stock price is characterized as being mutable, non-linear and stochastic. These key characteristics are known to have a direct influence on the stock markets globally. Given that the stock price data often contain both linear and non-linear patterns, no single model can be adequate in modelling and predicting time series data. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model cannot deal with non-linear relationships, however, it provides an accurate and effective way to process autocorrelation and non-stationary data in time series forecasting. On the other hand, the neural network provides an effective prediction of non-linear sequences. As a result, in this study, we used a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model to forecast the monthly closing price of the Shanghai composite index and Shenzhen component index.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 제어로봇시스템학회 2004년도 ICCAS
• /
• pp.631-634
• /
• 2004

In this paper, the Bayesian recurrent neural network (BRNN) is proposed to predict time series data. Among the various traditional prediction methodologies, a neural network method is considered to be more effective in case of non-linear and non-stationary time series data. A neural network predictor requests proper learning strategy to adjust the network weights, and one need to prepare for non-linear and non-stationary evolution of network weights. The Bayesian neural network in this paper estimates not the single set of weights but the probability distributions of weights. In other words, we sets the weight vector as a state vector of state space method, and estimates its probability distributions in accordance with the Bayesian inference. This approach makes it possible to obtain more exact estimation of the weights. Moreover, in the aspect of network architecture, it is known that the recurrent feedback structure is superior to the feedforward structure for the problem of time series prediction. Therefore, the recurrent network with Bayesian inference, what we call BRNN, is expected to show higher performance than the normal neural network. To verify the performance of the proposed method, the time series data are numerically generated and a neural network predictor is applied on it. As a result, BRNN is proved to show better prediction result than common feedforward Bayesian neural network.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제37권2호
• /
• pp.27-34
• /
• 2014

In this paper, we investigate the statistical correlation of the time series for temperature measured at the heat box in the automobile drying process. We show, in terms of the sample variance, that a significant non-linear correlation exists in the time series that consist of absolute temperature changes. To investigate further the non-linear correlation, we utilize the volatility, an important concept in the financial market, and induce volatility time series from absolute temperature changes. We analyze the time series of volatilities in terms of the de-trended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a method especially suitable for testing the long-range correlation of non-stationary data, from the correlation perspective. We uncover that the volatility exhibits a long-range correlation regardless of the window size. We also analyze the cross correlation between two (inlet and outlet) volatility time series to characterize any correlation between the two, and disclose the dependence of the correlation strength on the time lag. These results can contribute as important factors to the modeling of forecasting and management of the heat box's temperature.

• Coupled systems mechanics
• /
• 제12권4호
• /
• pp.297-313
• /
• 2023

This paper deals with delamination analysis of non-linear viscoelastic multilayered beam subjected to bending in the plane of the layers. For this purpose, first, a non-linear viscoelastic model is presented. In order to take into account the non-linear viscoelastic behaviour, a non-linear spring and a non-linear dashpot are assembled in series with a linear spring connected in parallel to a linear dashpot. The behaviours of the non-linear spring and dashpot are described by applying non-linear stress-strain and stress-rate of strain relationships, respectively. The constitutive law of the model is derived. Due to the non-linear spring and dashpot, the constitutive law is non-linear. This law is used for describing the time-dependent mechanical behaviour of the beam under consideration. The material properties involved in the constitutive law vary along the beam length due to the continuous material inhomogeneity of the layers. Solution of the strain energy release rate for the delamination is obtained by analyzing the balance of the energy with considering of the non-linear viscoelastic behaviour. The strain energy release rate is found also by using the complementary strain energy for verification. A parametric study is carried-out by using the solution obtained. The solutions derived and the results obtained help to understand the time-dependent delamination of non-linear viscoelastic beams under loading in the plane of layers.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제18권1호
• /
• pp.73-80
• /
• 2007

Cointegration(together with VARMA(vector ARMA)) has been proven to be useful for analyzing multivariate non-stationary data in the field of financial time series. It provides a linear combination (which turns out to be stationary series) of non-stationary component series. This linear combination equation is referred to as long term equilibrium between the component series. We consider two sets of Korean bivariate financial time series and then illustrate cointegration analysis. Specifically estimated VAR(vector AR) and VECM(vector error correction model) are obtained and CV(cointegrating vector) is found for each data sets.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
• /
• 제17권2호
• /
• pp.179-190
• /
• 2017

Hand Accelerometer는 인간신체 운동 패턴을 실시간으로 파악하는데 널리 사용되고 있다. 그러므로 행동 유형을 정확하게 파악하는 것은 아주 중요하다. 이 과정에서 각 행동유형의 형태를 미리 정확하게 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 인간의 신체 행동은 센서를 통해 수집된 시계열 데이터로 표현된다. 이 데이터는 비안정적, 비선형적 성격을 가지고 있다. 그래서 이런 성격의 데이터의 유형을 효율적으로 추출하는 방법을 찾는 것은 매우 중요하다. 힐버트-황 변환은 비안정적 비선형적 요소를 시계열데이터에서 효율적으로 추출하는 방법이다. 이 방법을 위의 시계열 데이터에 적용한 결과 핵심패턴이 성공적으로 추출되었다.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• 제8권4호
• /
• pp.257-263
• /
• 2009

Focusing on the idea that the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) is equivalent to (1, 1) order ARMA model equation, new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoothing method is proposed before by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Theoretical solution was derived in a simple way. Mere application of ESM does not make good forecasting accuracy for the time series which has non-linear trend and/or trend by month. A new method to cope with this issue is required. In this paper, combining the trend removal method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. An approach to this method is executed in the following method. Trend removal by a linear function is applied to the original shipping data of consumer goods. The combination of linear and non-linear function is also introduced in trend removal. For the comparison, monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful especially for the time series that has stable characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend and also the case that has non-linear trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.