• Title/Summary/Keyword: new risk

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Application of the Weibull-Poisson long-term survival model

  • Vigas, Valdemiro Piedade;Mazucheli, Josmar;Louzada, Francisco
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.325-337
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we proposed a new long-term lifetime distribution with four parameters inserted in a risk competitive scenario with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard rate functions, namely the Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution. This new distribution arises from a scenario of competitive latent risk, in which the lifetime associated to the particular risk is not observable, and where only the minimum lifetime value among all risks is noticed in a long-term context. However, it can also be used in any other situation as long as it fits the data well. The Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution is presented as a particular case for the new exponential-Poisson long-term distribution and Weibull long-term distribution. The properties of the proposed distribution were discussed, including its probability density, survival and hazard functions and explicit algebraic formulas for its order statistics. Assuming censored data, we considered the maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation. For different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages various simulation studies were performed to study the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimative, and compare the performance of the model proposed with the particular cases. The selection criteria Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and likelihood ratio test were used for the model selection. The relevance of the approach was illustrated on two real datasets of where the new model was compared with its particular cases observing its potential and competitiveness.

Review of Programs for Improving Patient's Access to Medicines (의약품 접근성 향상을 위한 방안 고찰)

  • Kim, EuGene;Kim, Younhee
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2018
  • Objective: This study presented the analysis period, the complexity of combined therapy and comparator choice as the key limitations in the economic evaluation of new drugs, and discussed programs for coping with these limitations. Methods: This study evaluated the post-evaluation, risk-sharing agreement, extra funding program, and flexible incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) threshold as actions or programs that would increase accessibility to costly new drugs. The study also presented the cases of other countries. The application of the post-evaluation was considered to deal with high uncertainty regarding new drugs. Results: The risk-sharing agreement was introduced in European countries as well as South Korea and has been responsible for the shift from using the financial schemes to outcome-based schemes. The drug funding program has had troubled in securing stable extra funds. The application of higher ICER in the economic evaluation of expensive and innovative oncology drugs was criticized because of the inequity between oncology patients and patients with other diseases. Conclusion: Therefore, introducing and applying actions that would increase the accessibility to costly new drugs in South Korea have been deemed necessary after careful reviews and discussions with various stakeholders (insurer, policy makers, pharmaceutical companies and patients).

A Study of Security Risk Analysis for Public IaaS Cloud Certification (공공 IaaS 클라우드 인증제도에 적용할 위험분석 방법에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Jib;Kim, Ki-Young
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2015
  • Cloud computing has emerged with promise to decrease the cost of server additional cost and expanding the data storage and ease for computer resource sharing and apply the new technologies. However, Cloud computing also raises many new security concerns due to the new structure of the cloud service models. Therefore, several cloud service certification system were performed in the world in order to meet customers need which is the safe and reliable cloud service. This paper we propose the new risk analysis method different compare with existing method for secure the reliability of certification considering public IaaS(Infrastructure as a Service) cloud service properties.

The Sensitivity Comparison of Each Risk Factors Analysis on Renewable Energy and Other Generating Technologies (신재생 에너지와 기존 발전기술과의 투자리스크 요인별 민감도 비교)

  • Koh, Kyung-Ho;Park, Se-Ik
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.10-17
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    • 2011
  • Recently, electricity industry is facing high market uncertainty which has ever had and which increase risks in power market. In this study, we analyze risk factors such as discount rates, initial investment (overnight cost), plant factor, fuel cost, carbon price, etc, for the perspective of investor. For the analysis of risk factors, we used LCOE method. The results of this study show that renewable energy is more affected by plant factor and overnight cost than other risk factors. First, Renewable energy has higher proportion of overnight cost in the total investment than that of other technologies. Second, renewable energy is free of fuel cost and carbon price so plant factor is the most important factor, in other words, competitiveness of renewable energy depends on plant factor. Furthermore, we conducted economic feasibility of wind power and PV in domestic case study. The minimum requirement condition to get profitability is that plant factor 15% and overnight cost \6,000,000/kW and 26%, \2,200,000/kW for PV and Wind Power, respectively.

A Study on Improving Korea's Regulatory System for Pharmaceutical Safety Management (의약품 안전성 관리를 위한 연구 - 의약품 안전관리 제도개선 방안을 중심으로 -)

  • Chae, Gyu Han;Cho, Gi Won;Nagata, Ryuji;Park, Ji Sun;Hong, Chong Hui;Kang, Jong Seong
    • YAKHAK HOEJI
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.173-186
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    • 2013
  • To ensure the safe use of pharmaceuticals in the market, US, EU and Japan reached a consensus to adopt ICH harmonised tripartite guideline "E2E Pharmacovigilance Planning" in 2004. Subsequently these regions established and implemented new pharmaceutical safety management systems for patients based on ICH E2E guideline and Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) in US or Risk Management Plan (RMP) in EU and Japan. In this study we investigated these new foreign systems and suggested a way to improve Korea's regulatory system for pharmaceutical safety management under Korea Pharmaceutical Law in the view of international harmonization.

A Modified Metric of FMEA for Risk Evaluation Based on ASIL of Safety System (ASIL에 기초하여 수정된 안전시스템 FMEA 위험평가척도)

  • Baek, Myoung-Sig;Jang, Hyeon Ae;Kwon, Hyuck Moo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.543-562
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to suggest a modified approach that compensates some shortcomings of RPN with relevant strength of ASIL for Safety System and suggests systematic and logical approach for FMEA. Methods: By comparing the objectives, determination procedures, and key conceptual differences of RPN and ASIL, a refined method of risk evaluation and a new risk metric are devised. Results: While the traditional FMEA provides only rough evaluation of relative risk for each failure, the proposed method compensates its shortcomings with relevant strength of ASIL and provides a more logical and practical procedure of risk evaluation. Conclusion: The new metric RPM provides not only a comparative priority rank but also the degree of physical seriousness. Besides, it may have even more benefits for various applications if the severity can be expressed as mone tary amount of losses.

Effects of Diagnosis-Related Group-Based Payment System on the Risk-Adjusted Cesarean Section Rate (Diagnosis-Related Group 지불제도가 위험도 보정 제왕절개 분만율에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwak, Jin-Mi;Lee, Kwang-Soo
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.180-187
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    • 2021
  • Background: This study analyzed the effect of applying the diagnosis-related group (DRG)-based payment system, which was implemented in July 2012 for hospitals and clinics nationwide, on the cesarean section rate. Methods: The subjects of the study were divided into new groups that participated in the payment system after July 2012 and maintenance groups that participated in the payment system before July 2012. As an analysis method, a difference-in-difference analysis, which is a quasi-experimental design, was used. The risk-adjusted cesarean section rate was used as a dependent variable. Results: Seven risk factors (malpresentation of fetus, eclampsia, multiple pregnancies, problems in the placenta, previous Cesarean section, cephalopelvic disproportion, problems in amniotic fluid) were included in the final risk-adjustment model, and found to have a statistically significant relationship with the cesarean section rate. Results showed that the risk-adjusted cesarean section rate increased significantly in new groups after the application of the DRG-based payment system. Conclusion: Study results provided policy implications for the reorganization of the DRG-based system should that reflects the demands of obstetricians, such as organizing a consultative body with obstetricians and establishing a reasonable fee.

Risk Assessment for the Integrated System of Hydrogen Generation System Linked to Fuel Cell (연료전지 연계 수소추출기 통합 시스템에 대한 위험성 평가)

  • DANBEE SHIN;SEONGCHUL HONG;KWANGWON RHIE;DOOHYOUN SEO;DONGMIN LEE;TAEHUN KIM
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.728-733
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    • 2023
  • Efforts are continuing to change from fossil fuels used to hydrogen energy society. In order to become a hydrogen society, stable production and real-life applicability are important. As a result, hydrogen generation system linked to fuel cell are being developed. Through this, it is expected that production to power generation will be possible where desired by utilizing the existing urban gas piping network. Hydrogen generation system and hydrogen fuel cell have been subjected to risk assessment and have already been commercialized, but no risk assessment has been conducted on the integrated system linking them. Therefore, it is intended to secure its safety by conducting a risk analysis on the integrated system.

The Nature of Risk Assessment

  • The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1994.02a
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    • pp.23-56
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    • 1994
  • Recent criticisms of the conduct and use of risk assessment by regulatory agencies have led to a wide range of proposed remedies, including changes in regulatory statutes and the development of new methods for assessing risk. The mandate to this Committee was more limited. Our objective was to examine whether alterations in institutional arrangements or procedures, particularly the organizational separation of risk assessment from regulatory decision-making and the use of uniform guidelines for inferring risk from available scientific information, can improve federal risk assessment activities. Before undertaking to determine whether organizational and procedural reforms could improve the performance and use of risk assessment in the federal government, the Committee examined the state of risk assessment and the regulatory environment in which it is performed. In this chapter, we define risk assessment and differentiate it from other elements in the regulatory process, analyze the types of judgments made in risk assessment, and examine its current government context. Because one chronic health hazard, cancer, was highlighted in the Committee's congressional mandate and has dominated public concern about public health risks in recent years, most of our report focuses on it. Furthermore, because activities in four agencies--the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC)--have given rise to many of the proposals for changes in risk assessment practices, our review focuses on these four agencies. The conclusions of this report, although directed primarily at risk assessment of potential carcinogens as performed by these four agencies, may be applicable to other federal programs to reduce health risks.

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Risk Assessment for Contact Accident of Buoy - Focusing on Busan New Port - (등부표 접촉사고 발생의 위험성 평가에 관한 기초 연구 - 부산항신항 해역을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Myoung-ki;Park, Young-Soo;Jeong, Hae-Sang;Gug, Seung-Gi
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.158-165
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    • 2020
  • Buoys are a necessary component for the safety of vessel traffic. However, if the buoy becomes inoperable from damage and loss, it can have significant impact on vessel traffic safety as well as unexpected budget spending. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk of accidental contact by applying the marine traffic assessment index that can reflect the traffic flow in the sea area. First, Busan Port No. 5 fairway, with a high number of buoys and many contact accidents, was set as the sea area for assessment. to investigate the status of accidental contact and evaluate risk of contact accidents based on the IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Programme (IWRAP MkII) and Potential Assessment of Risk Model (PARK Model). As a result, buoys are near the P recautionary Area wherein the traffic flow was complicated by the Masan port vessel and Busan new port vessel, and buoys are near the entrance of the Gadeok waterway, wherein vessels show a pattern of navigation across the fairway and buoys are near the breakwater in the inner fairway were considered as high risk for contact accidents. This study can be used as basic data for establishing an integrated model to evaluate the risk of buoy contact accidents.