• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• 제18권4호
• /
• pp.44-57
• /
• 2019

Various studies have been conducted to solve traffic congestions in many metropolitan cities through accurate traffic flow prediction. Most studies are based on the assumption that past traffic patterns repeat in the future. Models based on such an assumption fall short in case irregular traffic patterns abruptly occur. Instead, the approaches such as predicting traffic pattern through big data analytics and artificial intelligence have emerged. Specifically, deep learning algorithms such as RNN have been prevalent for tackling the problems of predicting temporal traffic flow as a time series. However, these algorithms do not perform well in terms of long-term prediction. In this paper, we take into account various external factors that may affect the traffic flows. We model the correlation between the multi-dimensional context information with temporal traffic speed pattern using deep neural networks. Our model trained with the traffic data from TOPIS system by Seoul, Korea can predict traffic speed on a specific date with the accuracy reaching nearly 90%. We expect that the accuracy can be improved further by taking into account additional factors such as accidents and constructions for the prediction.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
• /
• 제24권2호
• /
• pp.134-153
• /
• 2015

When making urban planning, it is important to understand climate effect caused by urban structural changes. Seoul city applies UPIS(Urban Plan Information System) which provides information on urban planning scenario. Technology for analyzing climate effect resulted from urban planning needs to developed by linking urban planning scenario provided by UPIS and climate analysis model, CAS(Climate Analysis Seoul). CAS develops for analyzing urban climate conditions to provide realistic information considering local air temperature and wind flows. Quantitative analyses conducted by CAS for the production, transportation, and stagnation of cold air, wind flow and thermal conditions by incorporating GIS analysis on land cover and elevation and meteorological analysis from MetPhoMod(Meteorology and atmospheric Photochemistry Meso-scale model). In order to reflect land cover and elevation of the latest information, CAS used to highly accurate raster data (1m) sourced from LiDAR survey and KOMPSAT-2(KOrea Multi-Purpose SATellite) satellite image(4m). For more realistic representation of land surface characteristic, DSM(Digital Surface Model) and DTM(Digital Terrain Model) data used as an input data for CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) model. Eight inflow directions considered to investigate the change of flow pattern, wind speed according to reconstruction and change of thermal environment by connecting green area formation. Also, MetPhoMod in CAS data used to consider realistic weather condition. The result show that wind corridors change due to reconstruction. As a whole surface temperature around target area decreases due to connecting green area formation. CFD model coupled with CAS is possible to evaluate the wind corridor and heat environment before/after reconstruction and connecting green area formation. In This study, analysis of climate impact before and after created the green area, which is part of 'Connecting green network across the north and south in Seoul' plan, one of the '2020 Seoul master plan'.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• 제23권4호
• /
• pp.235-250
• /
• 2021

The overarching question of this study is how a typical rice cultivation system in Gimje, Korea was keeping up with the triple-win challenge of climate-smart agriculture (CSA). To answer this question, we have employed (1) quantitative data from direct measurement of energy, water, carbon and information flows in and out of a rice cultivation system and (2) appropriate metrics to assess production, efficiency, GHG fluxes, and resilience. The study site was one of the Korean Network of Flux measurement (KoFlux) sites (i.e., GRK) located at Gimje, Korea, managed by National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration. Fluxes of energy, water, carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) were directly measured using eddy-covariance technique during the growing seasons of 2011, 2012 and 2014. The production indicators include gross primary productivity (GPP), grain yield, light use efficiency (LUE), water use efficiency (WUE), and carbon uptake efficiency (CUE). The GHG mitigation was assessed with indicators such as fluxes of carbon dioxide (F_CO2), methane (F_CH4), and nitrous oxide (F_N2O). Resilience was assessed in terms of self-organization (S), using information-theoretic approach. Overall, the results demonstrated that the rice cultivation system at GRK was climate-smart in 2011 in a relative sense but failed to maintain in the following years. Resilience was high and changed little for three year. However, the apparent competing goals or trade-offs between productivity and GHG mitigation were found within individual years as well as between the years, causing difficulties in achieving the triple-win scenario. The pursuit of CSA requires for stakeholders to prioritize their goals (i.e., governance) and to practice opportune interventions (i.e., management) based on the feedback from real-time assessment of the CSA indicators (i.e., monitoring) - i.e., a purpose-driven visioneering.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• 제44권3호
• /
• pp.407-416
• /
• 2024

Over the past 20 years, there has been a rapid increase in the number and size of subway stations and underground structures worldwide, and the importance of safety for subway users has also continuously grown. Subway stations, due to their structural characteristics, have limited visibility and escape routes in disaster situations, posing a high risk of human casualties and economic losses. Therefore, an analysis of disaster vulnerabilities is essential not only for existing subway systems but also for deep underground facilities like GTX. This paper presents a case study applying a betweenness centrality-based disaster vulnerability analysis framework to the case of Gwanggyo Central Station. The analysis of Gwanggyo Central Station's base model and various disaster scenarios revealed that the betweenness centrality distribution is symmetrical, following the symmetrical spatial structure of the station, with high centrality concentrated in the central areas of basement levels one and two. These areas exhibited values more than 220% above the average, indicating a high likelihood of bottleneck phenomena during evacuation in disaster situations. To mitigate this vulnerability, scenarios were proposed to distribute evacuation flows concentrated in the central areas, enhancing the usability of peripheral areas as evacuation routes by connecting staircases continuously. This modification, when considered, showed a decrease in centrality concentration, confirming that the proposed addition of evacuation paths could effectively contribute to dispersing the flow of evacuation in Gwanggyo Central Station. This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework for assessing evacuation vulnerability in enhancing subway station user safety and can be effectively applied in disaster response and management plans for major underground facilities.

• Information Systems Review
• /
• 제16권3호
• /
• pp.161-177
• /
• 2014

Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.