• Title/Summary/Keyword: mortality trend

Search Result 207, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

An Extension of Mortality for Oldest-Old Age in Korea (우리나라의 초고령 사망률의 확장에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Yong;Kim, Kee-Whan;Park, You-Sung
    • Survey Research
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-26
    • /
    • 2011
  • Mortality for oldest-old age (aged 80 or over) in Korea has never been studied mainly due to lack of data leaving its quality aside. The rapid aging recently occurring in Korea, which no other country has never experienced, must introduce a drastic change in the structure of future population pyramid, requring a careful investigation on mortality level, pattern, and trend for the oldest-old age in Korea. For mortality trend, we need to extend the past mortality data, which has provided only an open-ended age interval 80 or 85 years and over, to age-specific mortality up to 115 years old. A prerequisite for such an extension is constructing a Korean standard mortality by which one can figure out the mortality level and pattern of the oldest-old age. A Korean standard mortality is proposed by applying one relational model and eleven functions from which we select best models for each sex in terms of three measures of fits and three consistencies of mortality. Then we extend the mortality of the open-ended age intervals by providing a method to avoid the longitudinal consistency of mortality.

  • PDF

Recent Decrease in Colorectal Cancer Mortality Rate is Affected by Birth Cohort in Korea

  • Jee, Yonho;Oh, Chang-Mo;Shin, Aesun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.16 no.9
    • /
    • pp.3951-3955
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: Colorectal cancer mortality has started to decrease in several developed countries in Asia. The current study aimed to present the long-term trends in colorectal cancer mortality in Korea using joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort modeling. Materials and Methods: The number of colorectal cancer deaths and the population for each 5-year age group were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013 for adults 30 years and older. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to determine changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates, and age-period-cohort analysis was performed to describe trends in colorectal cancer mortality using the intrinsic estimator method. Results: In men, the age-standardized mortality rate for colorectal cancer increased from 1984 to 2003, and the mortality rates stabilized thereafter, whereas the mortality rate of colorectal cancer in women has decreased since 2004. The age-specific mortality rate of colorectal cancer increased in both men and women over time, whereas decreases in the age-specific mortality rate in younger cohorts were observed. In the age-period-cohort analysis, old age and recent period were associated with higher mortality for both men and women. The birth cohort born after 1919 showed reduced colorectal cancer mortality in both men and women. Conclusions: Our study showed a recent decreasing trend in colorectal cancer mortality in women and a stable trend in men after 2003-2004. These changes in colorectal cancer mortality may be attributed to birth cohort effects.

Actuarial analysis of a reverse mortgage applying a modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality (왜도 예측을 이용한 Lee-Carter 모형의 주택연금 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Park, Sangdae;Baek, Hyeyoun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.31 no.1
    • /
    • pp.77-96
    • /
    • 2018
  • A reverse mortgage provides a pension until the death for the insured or last survivor. Long-term risk management is important to estimate the contractual period of a reverse mortgage. It is also necessary to study prediction methods of mortality rates that appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate since the extension of the life expectancy, which is the main cause of aging, can have a serious impact on the pension financial soundness. In this study, the Lee-Carter (LC) model reflects the improvement in mortality rates; in addition, multiple life model are also applied to a reverse mortgage. The mortality prediction method by the traditional LC model has shown a dramatic improvement in the mortality rate; therefore, this study suggests mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness for the mortality that has been applied to appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate. This paper calculates monthly payments using future mortality rates based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality. As a result, the mortality rates based on this method less reflect the mortality improvement effect than the mortality rates based on a traditional LC model and a larger pension amount is calculated. In conclusion, this method is useful to forecast future mortality trend results in a significant reduction of longevity risk. It can also be used as a risk management method to pay appropriate monthly payments and prevent insufficient payment due to overpayment by the issuing institution and the guarantee institution of the reverse mortgage.

Gynaecological Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991-2010: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis

  • Ilic, Milena;Ilic, Irena
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.157-162
    • /
    • 2015
  • The descriptive epidemiological study aimed to analyse the mortality trends from gynaecological cancer in Serbia. Average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed for trend using joinpoint regression analysis. Nearly 25,000 gynaecological cancer deaths occurred in Serbia during the 1991-2010 period, with the average annual age-standardised mortality rate being 17.2 per 100,000 women. Increase of mortality was observed for cancer of the vulva and vagina (AAPC=+1.3%, 95% CI=0.1 to 2.6), ovarian cancer (AAPC=+0.8%, 95% CI=0.4-1.3) and for cervical cancer (AAPC=+0.7%, 95% CI=0.3 to 1.1). Mortality rates for gynaecological cancer overall declined in women aged 30-39 years, but mortality was increased in middle-aged women (for cervical cancer) and in the elderly (for ovarian cancer). Improvements to and implementation of the national cervical cancer screening programme conducted in 2013 and expected to be finalised in the following years throughout Serbia should contribute to improvement.

Cervical Cancer Mortality Trends in China, 1991-2013, and Predictions for the Future

  • Du, Pei-Ling;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Fang, Jia-Ying;Zeng, Yang;Xu, Zhen-Xi;Tang, Wen-Rui;Xu, Xiao-Ling;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.16 no.15
    • /
    • pp.6391-6396
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends. Results: In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).

Liver Cancer Mortality Trends during the Last 30 Years in Hebei province: Comparison Results from Provincial Death Surveys Conducted in the 1970's, 1980's, 1990's and 2004-2005

  • Xu, Hong;He, Yu-Tong;Zhu, Jun-Qing
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.13 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1895-1899
    • /
    • 2012
  • Background and Aims: Liver cancer is a major health problem in low-resource countries. Approximately 55% of all liver cancer occurs in China. Hebei Province is one of the important covering nearly 6% of the population of China. The aim of this paper was to explore liver cancer mortality trends during past 30 years, and provide basic information on prevention strategies. Methods: Hebei was covered covered all the three national surveys during 1973-1975, 1990-1992, and 2004-2005 and one provincial survey during 1984-1986. Subjects included all cases dying from liver cancer in Hebei Province. Liver cancer mortality trend and geographic differences across cities and counties were analyzed. Results: There were 82,878 deaths in Hebei Province during 2004-2005 with an average mortality rate was 600.9/10,000, and an age-adjusted rate of 552.3/10,000. Those dying of cancer were 18,424 cases, accounting for 22.2% of all deaths, second only to cerebrovascular disease as a cause of death. Cancer mortality was 133.6/100,000 (age-adjusted rate was 119.2/100,000). Liver cancer ranked fourth in this survey with a mortality rate of 21.0/100,000, 28.4/100,000 in males and 13.35/10,000 in females, accounting for 15.7%, 17.1% and 13.4% of the total number of cancer deaths and in males and females, respectively. The sex ratio was 2.13. Since the 1970s, liver cancer deaths of Hebei province have been increasing slightly. The crude mortality rates in the four surveys were 11.3, 16.0, 17.4, 21.0 per 100,000, respectively, with age-adjusted rates fluctuating during the past 30 years, but the trend also being upwards. There is a tendency for the mortality rates to be higher in coastal than mountain areas, and is relative lower in the plain area, with crude mortality rates of 25.3, 22.1, and 19.1 per 100,000, respectively. There were no notable differences in cride data between urban and rural, but the age-adjusted mortality rate in rural was much higher. Conclusion: Our study indicated that the mortality of liver cancer in Hebei Province is lower than the national average level. There is a slightly increase trend, especially in some counties. Liver cancer is a major health problem and it is necessary to further promote prevention strategies in Hebei province.

Trends in Regional Disparity in Cardiovascular Mortality in Korea, 1983-2019

  • Eunji Kim;Jongmin Baek;Min Kim;Hokyou Lee;Jang-Whan Bae;Hyeon Chang Kim
    • Korean Circulation Journal
    • /
    • v.52 no.11
    • /
    • pp.829-843
    • /
    • 2022
  • Background and Objectives: Despite remarkable reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, the burden has remained the leading cause of death. Since little research has focused on regional disparity in CVD mortality, this study aims to investigate its spatiotemporal trends in Korea from 1983 to 2019. Methods: Using the causes of death statistics in Korea, we analyzed the geographic variation in deaths from CVDs from 1983 to 2019. The sex and age-standardized mortality rate was calculated according to the 17 administrative regions. The analyses include all diseases of the circulatory system (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes, I00-I99), along with the following 6 subcategories which were not mutually exclusive: total heart disease (I00-I13 and I20-I51), hypertensive heart disease (I10-I13), ischemic heart disease (I20-I25), myocardial infarction (I21-I23), heart failure (I50), and cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69). Results: Overall, heart failure death rate increased across all regions, and other CVD death rates showed a decreasing trend. Regional disparity in mortality was substantial in the early 1980s but converged over time. In all types of cardiovascular mortality, Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam remained the highest, although they showed a downward trend like other regions. Jeju continued to have a relatively low CVD mortality rate. Conclusions: The regional disparity substantially decreased compared to the 1980s. However, the relatively high burden of CVD mortality in the southeastern region has not been fully resolved.

Association of dietary patterns with overweight risk and all-cause mortality in children with cancer

  • So, Eunjin;Kim, Jeeyeon;Joo, Sehwa;Lee, Jisun;Joung, Hyojee
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
    • /
    • v.11 no.6
    • /
    • pp.492-499
    • /
    • 2017
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the association of dietary patterns with overweight risk and all-cause mortality in pediatric cancer patients. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Prospective cohort study was undertaken; 83 cancer patients admitted to the pediatric cancer ward at a university hospital in Seoul were included and followed for obesity and death over 24 months. Food consumption data were collected from patients using validated meal order sheets for breakfast, lunch, and dinner at the pediatric cancer ward over 3 days. Using principal component analysis, three dietary patterns were derived from 29 food groups. RESULTS: Eighteen deaths occurred among the patient cohort during the follow-up period. The "spicy & fried meat and fish" dietary pattern was positively associated with overweight risk at both baseline [odds ratio (OR) = 4.396, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.111-17.385, P for trend = 0.023] and after 6 months (OR = 4.088, 95% CI = 1.122-14.896, P for trend = 0.025) as well as all-cause mortality (hazard ratios = 5.124, 95% CI = 1.080-24.320, P for trend = 0.042), when comparing the highest and lowest tertiles after adjusting for covariates. The "fish, egg, meat, and fruits & vegetables" dietary pattern was associated with lower overweight risk after 24 months (OR = 0.157, 95% CI = 0.046-0.982, P for trend = 0.084). CONCLUSION: The results imply that dietary patterns might be associated with weight gain and premature death among pediatric cancer patients.

The Trend of Risk-adjusted Hospital Mortality Rates of Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Patients from 2001 to 2003 (위험도가 보정된 의료기관 관상동맥우회로술 사망률의 3년간(2001년-2003년) 추세분석)

  • Lee, Kwang-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.40 no.1
    • /
    • pp.29-35
    • /
    • 2007
  • Objectives : To assess whether the risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates for non-emergent and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) patients exhibited a consistent trend from 2001 to 2003. Methods : The data used in this study came from CABG claims that were submitted to a Korean Health Insurance Review Agency (HIRA) in 2001, 2002, and 2003. Study datasets included data from 17 tertiary hospitals, which had at least 25 claims each year over 3 years. The inter-hospital differences in patients' risk-factors were identified and controlled in the risk-adjustment model. Actual and predicted mortality rates for each hospital were calculated in 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2001+2002, and were then examined to identify consistent rate patterns over time. Kappa analysis was applied to assess the agreements between rates. Results : Hospitals with lower-than-expected inpatient mortality rates showed more consistent rates than those with higher-than-expected mortality rates. The mortality rates that were calculated based on data obtained over multiple years had less variation among hospitals than rates based on single year data. Based on the Kappa score, the highest agreement was found when the rates were compared between the 2-year combined data (2001+2002) and 2003. Conclusions : Consistent patterns over 3 years were most evident for hospitals which had lower-than expected mortality rates. Policy makers can use this information to identify the degree of outcomes in hospitals and help motivate or channel the behaviors of providers.

A Study on the Cause of Death of School Teachers in Korea (한국 교원의 사인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Kwan
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.20 no.1 s.21
    • /
    • pp.10-39
    • /
    • 1987
  • Mortality rate and causes of death are regarded as an index of strength as well as level of development of a country. However, there is no accurate data for the causes of death in Korea due to lack of systematic vital data collection system. The objective of this study was to define the causes of death of the school teachers, its changing pattern, cause-specific mortality rate, and geographic variation. The study population included all of the teachers in primary school, middle and high schools, and college who joined in Korean Teachers' Union between 1968 and 1985 that provided a total of 1,972, 069 person-years to observe (1,384,911 man-years, 587,158 woman-years). There were 3,678 deaths in this period (3,377 males, 301 females). The most common cause of death was neoplasm which was followed by the diseases of circulatory system. The proportion of death of neoplasm was 1.5 times higher than that of the general population. Causes of death were classified into 5 major groups (neoplasm, diseases of circulatory system, accidents and poisoning, diseases of liver, and all others). The mortality rates of diseases of circulatory system and all others for general population were 4 to S times higher than those for the teachers. However, mortality rates of neoplasm and diseases of liver were only about 2 times higher than those for teachers. Mortality rate of liver cancer for teachers was higher than gastric cancer mortality rate which is the reverse in general population. The crude death rate was 2.12 per 1,000 person-years for male and 1.00 for female which is one-third of the crude death rate of general population. Crude death rate of study population was higher in rural area than in urban area. However, mortality rate of neoplasm for male was higher in urban area than in rural area while mortality rates of all other causes were higher in rural area. For female, mortality rates of neoplasm and diseases of circulatory system were higher in urban area and the rates for all other causes were higher in rural area. Crude death rate was lowest in Gyeongin area and highest in Yeongnam area. The mortality of neoplasm for male accounted the highest proportion of all death in Gyeongin, Chungcheong and Yeoungnam areas while the mortality of neoplasm and mortality of circulatory system accounted the same proportion in Jeonra area. For female, the mortality of disease of circulatory system accounted the highest proportion in Gyeongin and Yeoungnam and Jeonra areas. Proportion of death due to accidents and poisoning was high in Chungcheong area and death due to all other causes was high in Yeoungnam area. The most common cause of death for male by city and province was neoplasm in Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gyeonggi, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Gyeongnam and Gyeongbuk. Diseases of circulatory system was the leading cause of death in the rest of city and provinces. The leading cause of death for female was diseases of circulatory system in Seoul, Incheon, Chungbuk, Chungnam, and Gyeongbuk, neoplasm in Busan, and accident and poisons in all other cities and provinces. The mortality rates of male were above 2 per 1,000 person-years in Jeju, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, Daegu, and Chungbuk, and it was below 1.5/l,000 in Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi. The mortality rate of female was above 1.2/1,000 person-years in Gyeongnam and Incheon while it was below 0.5/l,000 in Daegu, Geonggi Chungbuk and Jeju. The leading cause for male by school of employment was neoplasm in all levels of school with a remarkably higher rate in the professors of college. Leading cause of death for female was disease of circulatory system in primary schools, high schools and college but neoplasm in middle schools. There was no death due to liver diseases in middle and high school teachers and college professors and no death due to all other category in high school teachers and college professors, in females. High school teachers and the highest mortality rate and college professors showed the lowest mortality rate. Temporal trend of mortality was examined in three periods; period I ($1968{\sim}1974$), period II ($1975{\sim}1979$), and period III ($1980{\sim}1985$). The leading cause of death for male was diseases of circulatory system in period I and II but neoplasm in period III. Such trend of decreasing diseases of circulatory system and increasing neoplasm was observed in female. Overall mortality rate was decreased over the 3 periods. The mortality rates of diseases of circulatory system, liver disease and all others were decreased in male but the mortality rates of neoplasm and accident and posions was increased. Female showed a similar trend to male but the mortality rate of liver diseases was increased. Mortality rates of diseases of circulatory system, neoplasm and liver diseases increased with age of teachers up to 50 years of age but decreased in 60 years of age. Mean age at death due to each cause was higher in male than female by $4{\sim}10$ years. However, the mean age at death of the teachers was $2{\sim}5$ years lower than that of the general population in all causes of death and the sex difference in the mean a2e at death was smaller ($2{\sim}3$ years) in general population. In sex ratio of mortality, male was higher than female in almost all diseases except suicide and maintained a high ratio. The general population showed universally high ratio in male like teachers, and more or less did regular patterns in mortality with ratio smaller.

  • PDF