• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.63-75
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• 2002

To improve the efficiency of the electric power generation, monthly maximum electric power consumptions for a next one year should be forecasted in advance and used as the fundamental input to the yearly electric power-generating master plan, which has a greatly influence upon relevant sub-plans successively. In this paper, we analyze the past 22-year hourly maximum electric load data available from KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) and select necessary data from the raw data for our model in order to reflect more recent trends and seasonal components, which hopefully result in a better forecasting model in terms of forecasted errors. After analyzing the selected data, we recommend to KEPCO the Winters' multiplicative model with decomposition and exponential smoothing technique among many candidate forecasting models and provide forecasts for the electric power consumptions and their 95% confidence intervals up to December of 1999. It turns out that the relative errors of our forecasts over the twelve actual load data are ranged between 0.1% and 6.6% and that the average relative error is only 3.3%. These results indicate that our model, which was accepted as the first statistical forecasting model for monthly maximum power consumption, is very suitable to KEPCO.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제36권6호
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• pp.501-506
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• 2012

해양에너지를 비롯한 신재생에너지를 이용한 분산형 발전시스템 설계의 기초자료로 활용하기 위해 본 연구에서는 도서 주민의 전력소비량을 실측 분석하고 시기별 전력소비 패턴을 개발하였다. 실측조사는 남해안에 위치한 곤리도의 5가구를 대상으로 2010년 10월부터 2012년 2월까지 수행되었다. 월평균 전력소비량은 가구에 따라 12월 혹은 1월에 최대값이 발생하였다. 가구별 월간 전력소비량은 H가구가 J가구보다 2~3배 많았지만 가구별 1인당 월평균 전력소비량은 J가구가 H가구보다 10~30% 가량 많은 것으로 조사되었다. 시각별 전력소비 패턴을 개발한 결과 여름철에는 20시에서 자정 사이에 최대 전력소비가 발생하고, 겨울철은 여름철에 비하여 하루 동안의 전력소비 변화는 완만하지만 18시 이후 자정까지의 시간대에 전력소비가 증가하는 경향을 보였다. 가구별 주중과 주말의 전력소비 패턴은 매우 유사한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.69-77
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• 2006

Photovoltaic is an attractive technology to remote power applications, because of its reliability, low maintenance, and zero fuel requirements. In this paper represents residential PV system based on BESS(battery energy storage system) for managing the electric power, a pattern of daily operation considering the load characteristics of the house, the generation characteristics of PV power, and utility power leveling. For apply to control algorithm, we consider the load on monthly power consumption trend and daily usage pattern. As for the control of the proposed system, to increase the conversion efficiency of the PV power, bidirectional converter is used for MPPT and SPWM inverter. An experimental system is implemented, and some experimental results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system.