• Title/Summary/Keyword: model sensitivity

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Simulation-Based Stochastic Markup Estimation System $(S^2ME)$ (시뮬레이션을 기반(基盤)으로 하는 영업이윤율(營業利潤率) 추정(推定) 시스템)

  • Yi, Chang-Yong;Kim, Ryul-Hee;Lim, Tae-Kyung;Kim, Wha-Jung;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.109-113
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    • 2007
  • This paper introduces a system, Simulation based Stochastic Markup Estimation System (S2ME), for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the S2ME. The existing methods has four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and who is the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) The deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy contributed by these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

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A Comparative Analysis of Supplier's Profitability According to the Different Sales Timing in Apartment Housing (공동주택의 분양시기 변화에 따른 공급자의 수익성 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Seong-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2012
  • It has been five years since the Post-Construction Sale System of Housing was introduced. The purpose of this study is to identify objectives and effects of the Post-Construction Sale System of Housing and analyze change of profitability at different sales time from a supplier's point of view. Apartment buildings construction projects performed in Seoul are used for the case study. The present value of sales revenues, sensitivity and the present value of expected sales prices are analyzed. According to the findings, first, profits made from a Pre-construction sales system was 5.1%~6.2% higher than those from a Post-construction sales system. Among four plans of a Pre-construction sales system (A, B, C and D plan), sales revenue from the A plan, which takes a deposit at the time of starting construction, was the greatest. Second, increase of the rate of discount and decrease of sales revenues are in direct proportion. The bigger rate of discount leads actual reduction of sales revenues. Third, for the present value of sales revenues reflecting change in basic model construction cost, a Pre-construction sales system showed a little higher than that of a Post-construction sales system by approximately 2%. It should be known that this study suggests profitability of Pre-and Post-construction sales system by clearly measuring them in the supplier's point of view and calculates sales revenues, considering change of a sale price following change of sales time.

Immuno-chromatographic Analysis for HPV-16 and 18 E7 Proteins as a Biomarker of Cervical Cancer Caused by Human Papillomavirus

  • Kim, Joo-Ho;Cho, Il-Hoon;Seo, Sung-Min;Kim, Ji-Sook;Oh, Kyu-Ha;Kang, Heun-Soo;Kim, In-Gyu;Paek, Se-Hwan
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.2999-3005
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    • 2009
  • Among the more than 120 different types of human papillomavirus (HPV), types 16 and 18 have been known to be high risk agents that cause cervical cancer. We examined, in an immuno-chromatographic analysis, the potential of using the early gene product, E7 protein, as a diagnostic marker of cervical cancer caused by HPV. We developed monoclonal antibodies specific to HPV-16 and 18 E7 proteins that were produced from bacterial cells using gene recombinant technology. For each E7 protein, the optimal antibody pair was selected using the immuno-chromatographic sandwichtype binding system based on the lateral flow through membrane pores. Under these conditions, this rapid testing assay had a detection capability as low as 2 ng/mL of E7 protein. Furthermore, since viral analysis required the host cell to be lysed using chemicals such as detergents, it was possible that the E7 protein was structurally damaged during this process, which would result in a decrease in detection sensitivity. Therefore, we examined the detrimental effects caused by different detergents on the E7 protein using HeLa cells as the host. In these experiments, we found that the damage caused by the detergent, nonylphenylpolyethylene glycol (NP-40), was minimal relative to Triton X-100 commonly used for the cell lysis. Temperature also affected the stability of the E7 protein, and we found that the E7 protein was stabilized at 4$^{\circ}C$ for about 2 h, which was 4 times longer than at room temperature. Finally, a HPV-infected cervical cancer cell line, which was used as a real sample model, was treated using the optimized conditions and the presence of E7 proteins were analyzed by immuno-chromatography. The results of this experiment demonstrated that this rapid test could specifically detect HPV-infected samples.

Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment due to Typhoon Attack on Coastal area in Korea (태풍 내습으로 인한 연안역 해일 취약성 평가)

  • Kang, Tae-Soon;Oh, Hyeong-Min;Lee, Hae-Mi;Eum, Ho-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.608-616
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we have estimated the storm surge heights using numerical modeling on coastal area, and then evaluated the vulnerability index by applying the vulnerability assessment techniques. Surge modelling for 27 typhoons affected from 2000 to 2014 were simulated by applying the ADCIRC model. The results of validation and verification was in significant agreement as compared with observations for the top 6 ranking typhoons affected. As results, the storm surge heights in Jinhae Bay, Sacheon Bay, Gwangyang Bay, Cheonsu Bay and Gyeonggi Bay were higher than other inner coastal areas, then storm surge vulnerability assessment was performed using a standardization, normalization and gradation of storm surge heights. According to results of storm surge vulnerability assessment, index of Jinhae Bay, Sacheon Bay, Gwangyang Bay etc. are estimated to be vulnerable(4~5) because of the characteristics of storm surge such as inner bay are vulnerable compared with exposed to the open sea areas. However, index in the inner bay of western Jeonnam are not vulnerable(1~3) relatively. It may not appear the typhoons affected significantly for the past 15 years. So, the long-term vulnerability assessment with the sensitivity of geomorphology are necessary to reduce the uncertainty.

A Study on the Application or Fashion Illustration for the VMD Plan - Focusing on POP Advertisement - (VMD 방안으로서 패션 일러스트레이션 활용에 관한 연구 - POP 광고를 중심으로 -)

  • 김정민;김순자
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.648-662
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    • 2004
  • These days fashion market is overflown with many brands and their identities are not so clear that the advertisement emphasizing the characteristics of the products don't seem to be adequate in appealing the customers. Therefore it is required that the sensible image advertisement which appeals to the customers by stimulating their feeling and sensitivity to attract customer's interest. At that point, VMD especially of POP advertisement that can be attract direct purchasing plays an important part to build up the accurate image of brand to consumers. Even thought today's individualized consumers take much interested in the fresh and original expressions, the visual expressions of fashion advertisements still focus on using photographs. The most advertisement of photograph has a limit that it shows only an immediate fraction, so it can't present whole image It can deliver more- imaginations and message than photograph if fashion illustration is used in advertisement. Therefore the purpose of this study was to present the application of fashion illustration for the POP advertisement Twelve pieces of fashion illustrations were produced and classified three parts according to their images and expression techniques. Paper sculpture techniques were applied for fashion image expression, for paper is easily meet daily life and ecological materials. For study procedure and contents, the concept and useful functions of fashion illustration and the concept of paper sculpture were examined as a theoretical background, and various uses and techniques of paper sculpture by analysing a number of paper sculpture art works were also studied. Also the concept, roles and functions of POP advertisement were discussed, and then the examples that the fashion illustration applied in the advertisement were analyzed through case study. The theme of my works was jean fashion brand whose brand image is significant, Twelve pieces of fashion illustrations using paper sculpture techniques were produced and various kinds of paper were used in expressing the paper sculpture technique. Each works were cut out the forms and used a pertinent light for making cubic effect shadow when displayed them. In my works Ⅰand Ⅱ, Ⅰ illustrated jeans in two images of sexy and casual, these were created slightly bigger than actual body size in order to attract consumer's gaze at show window or store. In my works Ⅲ, Ⅰ illustrated part or model of a jean product so that it could be used as addition to main display.

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Locating Microseismic Events using a Single Vertical Well Data (단일 수직 관측정 자료를 이용한 미소진동 위치결정)

  • Kim, Dowan;Kim, Myungsun;Byun, Joongmoo;Seol, Soon Jee
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.64-73
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    • 2015
  • Recently, hydraulic fracturing is used in various fields and microseismic monitoring is one of the best methods for judging where hydraulic fractures exist and how they are developing. When locating microseismic events using single vertical well data, distances from the vertical array and depths from the surface are generally decided using time differences between compressional (P) wave and shear (S) wave arrivals and azimuths are calculated using P wave hodogram analysis. However, in field data, it is sometimes hard to acquire P wave data which has smaller amplitude than S wave because microseismic data often have very low signal to noise (S/N) ratio. To overcome this problem, in this study, we developed a grid search algorithm which can find event location using all combinations of arrival times recorded at receivers. In addition, we introduced and analyzed the method which calculates azimuths using S wave. The tests of synthetic data show the inversion method using all combinations of arrival times and receivers can locate events without considering the origin time even using only single phase. In addition, the method can locate events with higher accuracy and has lower sensitivity on first arrival picking errors than conventional method. The method which calculates azimuths using S wave can provide reliable results when the dip between event and receiver is relatively small. However, this method shows the limitation when dip is greater than about $20^{\circ}$ in our model test.

Estimation or Threshold Runoff on Han River Watershed (한강유역 한강유출량 산정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hoon;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.2 s.163
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2006
  • In this study, threshold runoff which is a hydrologic component of flash flood guidance(FFG) is estimated by using Manning's bankfull flow and Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH) methods on Han River watershed. Geographic Information System(GIS) and 3' Digital Elevation Model database have been used to prepare the basin parameters of a very fine drainage area($1.02\~56.41km^2$), stream length and stream slope for threshold runoff computation. Also, cross-sectional data of basin and stream channel are collected for a statistical analysis of regional regression relationships and then those are used to estimate the stream parameters. The estimated threshold runoff values are ranged from 2 mm/h to 14 mm/6hr on Han River headwater basin with the 1-hour duration values are$97\%$ up to 8mm and the 6-hour values are $98\%$ up to 14mm. The sensitivity analysis shows that threshold runoff is more variative to the stream channel cross-sectional factors such as a stream slope, top width and friction slope than the drainage area. In comparisons between the computed threshold runoffs on this study area and the three other regions in the United States, the computed results on Han River watershed are reasonable.

TM-25659-Induced Activation of FGF21 Level Decreases Insulin Resistance and Inflammation in Skeletal Muscle via GCN2 Pathways

  • Jung, Jong Gab;Yi, Sang-A;Choi, Sung-E;Kang, Yup;Kim, Tae Ho;Jeon, Ja Young;Bae, Myung Ae;Ahn, Jin Hee;Jeong, Hana;Hwang, Eun Sook;Lee, Kwan-Woo
    • Molecules and Cells
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    • v.38 no.12
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    • pp.1037-1043
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    • 2015
  • The TAZ activator 2-butyl-5-methyl-6-(pyridine-3-yl)-3-[2'-(1H-tetrazole-5-yl)-biphenyl-4-ylmethyl]-3H-imidazo[4,5-b]pyridine] (TM-25659) inhibits adipocyte differentiation by interacting with peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma. 1 TM-25659 was previously shown to decrease weight gain in a high fat (HF) diet-induced obesity (DIO) mouse model. However, the fundamental mechanisms underlying the effects of TM-25659 remain unknown. Therefore, we investigated the effects of TM-25659 on skeletal muscle functions in C2 myotubes and C57BL/6J mice. We studied the molecular mechanisms underlying the contribution of TM-25659 to palmitate (PA)-induced insulin resistance in C2 myotubes. TM-25659 improved PA-induced insulin resistance and inflammation in C2 myotubes. In addition, TM-25659 increased FGF21 mRNA expression, protein levels, and FGF21 secretion in C2 myotubes via activation of GCN2 pathways (GCN2-$phosphoelF2{\alpha}$-ATF4 and FGF21). This beneficial effect of TM-25659 was diminished by FGF21 siRNA. C57BL/6J mice were fed a HF diet for 30 weeks. The HF-diet group was randomly divided into two groups for the next 14 days: the HF-diet and HF-diet + TM-25659 groups. The HF diet + TM-25659-treated mice showed improvements in their fasting blood glucose levels, insulin sensitivity, insulin-stimulated Akt phosphorylation, and inflammation, but neither body weight nor food intake was affected. The HF diet + TM-25659-treated mice also exhibited increased expression of both FGF21 mRNA and protein. These data indicate that TM-25659 may be beneficial for treating insulin resistance by inducing FGF21 in models of PA-induced insulin resistance and HF diet-induced insulin resistance.

Productivity and Economic Analysis of Sandwich Panel Construction Work by Shop Fabrication (공장가공에 따른 샌드위치 패널공사의 생산성 및 경제성 분석)

  • Cho, Dong-Ryul;Son, Jae-Ho;Lee, Seung-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.113-122
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    • 2009
  • The domestic construction market started to expand steadily since 1970s. The building market which utilizes a sandwich panel with advantages of economical construction expenses and convenient construction has grown rapidly in recent years. However, the companies which specialize in constructing sandwich panels are relatively small or medium size, compared with other construction companies. As a result, studies on the improvement of productivity have not been conducted sufficiently. In this study, the construction sites of sandwich panel are investigated, and the work processes by each team are analyzed. Additionally, the productivity and the construction cost of each work group are analyzed by constructing a model using the Web-Cyclone. It analyzed sensitivities about change of productivity and work costs following in processing place of the panel which is one of the productivity effect factors, so it assayed the optimized productivity by each work group and work costs. Analysis showed that 30% of productivity has improved compared with the factory processing work group, and analysis of work costs showed that about 15% of work costs was increased. Also sensitivity analysis of opening ratio showed that the work costs optimization will be accomplished when about 20% of opening was processed from the factory.

Technology Valuation Evaluation Model of Decision Making System using Income Approach for Commercialization in LNG Plant Construction (수익접근법을 활용한 LNG 플랜트공사의 의사결정지원시스템 기술가치 평가)

  • Park, Hwan Pyo;Han, Jae Goo;Chin, Kyung Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.58-67
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    • 2014
  • The proportion of investment in national R&D projects in construction and transportation has been increasing continuously; in terms of the size of R&D projects, there are many medium- to large-sized projects of over KRW 10 billion. However, in spite of such continuous increase in R&D investments, there are many technologies developed but not commercialized, i.e., the quiescence of technology. Accordingly, it is necessary to link the R&D results to commercialization by expanding the scope of R&D projects. In this context, this study presented objective reference prices to be used in contracting/transacting technology and implementing commercialization strategy by conducting technology valuations against on-going research projects with earnings approach, and by estimating value of patented technology. Sum of free cash flow (business value) that can be generated during the life of the technology was estimated as KRW 512 million by reflecting a discount rate of 16.34% to convert it into the present value. In addition, the technology value was computed as KRW 227million by applying a technology factor of 44.39% to the above value. Based on the technology value estimated in this way, it is necessary to establish industrialization and commercialization strategy of the technology.