• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.117-128
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• 2012

Does snow depth initialization have a quantitative impact on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction skill? To answer this question, a snow depth initialization technique for seasonal forecast system has been implemented and the impact of the initialization on the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature during the wintertime is examined. Since the snow depth observation can not be directly used in the model simulation due to the large systematic bias and much smaller model variability, an anomaly rescaling method to the snow depth initialization is applied. Snow depth in the model is initialized by adding a rescaled snow depth observation anomaly to the model snow depth climatology. A suite of seasonal forecast is performed for each year in recent 12 years (1999-2010) with and without the snow depth initialization to evaluate the performance of the developed technique. The results show that the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature over East Asian region sensitively depends on the initial snow depth anomaly over the region. However, the sensitivity shows large differences for different timing of the initialization and forecast lead time. Especially, the snow depth anomaly initialized in the late winter (Mar. 1) is the most effective in modulating the surface air temperature anomaly after one month. The real predictability gained by the snow depth initialization is also examined from the comparison with observation. The gain of the real predictability is generally small except for the forecasting experiment in the early winter (Nov. 1), which shows some skillful forecasts. Implications of these results and future directions for further development are discussed.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.35-45
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• 2016

Initialization of the global seasonal forecast system is as much important as the quality of the embedded climate model for the climate prediction in sub-seasonal time scale. Recent studies have emphasized the important role of soil moisture initialization, suggesting a significant increase in the prediction skill particularly in the mid-latitude land area where the influence of sea surface temperature in the tropics is less crucial and the potential predictability is supplemented by land-atmosphere interaction. This study developed a new soil moisture initialization method applicable to the KMA operational seasonal forecasting system. The method includes first the long-term integration of the offline land surface model driven by observed atmospheric forcing and precipitation. This soil moisture reanalysis is given for the initial state in the ensemble seasonal forecasts through a simple anomaly initialization technique to avoid the simulation drift caused by the systematic model bias. To evaluate the impact of the soil moisture initialization, two sets of long-term, 10-member ensemble experiment runs have been conducted for 1996~2009. As a result, the soil moisture initialization improves the prediction skill of surface air temperature significantly at the zero to one month forecast lead (up to ~60 days forecast lead), although the skill increase in precipitation is less significant. This study suggests that improvements of the prediction in the sub-seasonal timescale require the improvement in the quality of initial data as well as the adequate treatment of the model systematic bias.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.132-139
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• 2019

We address the problem about forecasting the direction of stock price movement in the Korea market. Recently, the deep neural network is popularly applied in this area of research. In deep neural network systems, proper parameter initialization reduces training time and improves the performance of the model. Therefore, in our study, we propose a novel parameter initialization technique and apply this technique for the stock price movement prediction model. Specifically, we design a framework which consists of two models: a base model and a main prediction model. The base model constructed with LSTM is trained by using the large data which is generated by a large amount of the stock data to achieve optimal parameters. The main prediction model with the same architecture as the base model uses the optimal parameter initialization. Thus, the main prediction model is trained by only using the data of the given stock. Moreover, the stock price movements can be affected by other related information in the stock market. For this reason, we conducted our research with two types of inputs. The first type is the stock features, and the second type is a combination of the stock features and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) features. Empirical results conducted on the top five stocks in the KOSPI list in terms of market capitalization indicate that our approaches achieve better predictive accuracy and F1-score comparing to other baseline models.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.97.1-103
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• 2001

Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization model which is use the demand forecasts to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.460-475
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• 2015

A number of heavy rainfall events on the Korean Peninsula are indirectly influenced by tropical cyclones (TCs) when they are located in southeastern China. In this study, a heavy rainfall case in the middle Korean region is selected to examine the influence of typhoon simulation performance on predictability of remote rainfall over Korea as well as direct rainfall over Taiwan. Four different numerical experiments are conducted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, toggling on and off two different improvements on typhoon in the model initial condition (IC), which are TC bogussing initialization and dropwindsonde observation data assimilation (DA). The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory TC initialization algorithm is implemented to generate the bogused vortex instead of the initial typhoon, while the airborne observation obtained from dropwindsonde is applied by WRF Three-dimensional variational data assimilation. Results show that use of both TC initialization and DA improves predictability of TC track as well as rainfall over Korea and Taiwan. Without any of IC improvement usage, the intensity of TC is underestimated during the simulation. Using TC initialization alone improves simulation of direct rainfall but not of indirect rainfall, while using DA alone has a negative impact on the TC track forecast. This study confirms that the well-suited TC simulation over southeastern China improves remote rainfall predictability over Korea as well as TC direct rainfall over Taiwan.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.9-13
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• 2004

Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization models use them to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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• 2001.06c
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• pp.13-16
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• 2001

In reinforcement teaming, Q-learning converges quite slowly to a good policy. Its because searching for the goal state takes very long time in a large stochastic domain. So I propose the speedup method using the Q-value initialization for model-free reinforcement learning. In the speedup method, it learns a naive model of a domain and makes boundaries around the goal state. By using these boundaries, it assigns the initial Q-values to the state-action pairs and does Q-learning with the initial Q-values. The initial Q-values guide the agent to the goal state in the early states of learning, so that Q-teaming updates Q-values efficiently. Therefore it saves exploration time to search for the goal state and has better performance than Q-learning. 1 present Speedup Q-learning algorithm to implement the speedup method. This algorithm is evaluated. in a grid-world domain and compared to Q-teaming.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.327-340
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• 2021

In this study, the impact of soil moisture initialization in GloSea5, the operational climate prediction system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), has been investigated for the period of 1991~2010. To overcome the large uncertainties of soil moisture in the reanalysis, JRA55 reanalysis and CMAP precipitation were used as input of JULES land surface model and produced soil moisture initial field. Overall, both mean and variability were initialized drier and smaller than before, and the changes in the surface temperature and pressure in boreal summer and winter were examined using ensemble prediction data. More realistic soil moisture had a significant impact, especially within 2 months. The decreasing (increasing) soil moisture induced increases (decreases) of temperature and decreases (increases) of sea-level pressure in boreal summer and its impacts were maintained for 3~4 months. During the boreal winter, its effect was less significant than in boreal summer and maintained for about 2 months. On the other hand, the changes of surface temperature were more noticeable in the southern hemisphere, and the relationship between temperature and soil moisture was the same as the boreal summer. It has been noted that the impact of land initialization is more evident in the summer hemispheres, and this is expected to improve the simulation of summer heat wave in the KMA's operational climate prediction system.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.157-166
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• 2003

This paper deals with the problem of channel identification for Single Input Multiple Output (SIMO) slow fading channels using clustering algorithms. Due to the intrinsic memory of the discrete-time model of the channel, over short observation periods, the received data vectors of the SIMO model are spread in clusters because of the AWGN noise. Each cluster is practically centered around the ideal channel output labels without noise and the noisy received vectors are distributed according to a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Starting from the Markov SIMO channel model, simultaneous maximum ikelihood estimation of the input vector and the channel coefficients reduce to one of obtaining the values of this pair that minimizes the sum of the Euclidean norms between the received and the estimated output vectors. Viterbi algorithm can be used for this purpose provided the trellis diagram of the Markov model can be labeled with the noiseless channel outputs. The problem of identification of the ideal channel outputs, which is the focus of this paper, is then equivalent to designing a Vector Quantizer (VQ) from a training set corresponding to the observed noisy channel outputs. The Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG)-type clustering algorithms [1] could be used to obtain the noiseless channel output labels from the noisy received vectors. One problem with the use of such algorithms for blind time-varying channel identification is the codebook initialization. This paper looks at two critical issues with regards to the use of VQ for channel identification. The first has to deal with the applicability of this technique in general; we present theoretical results for the conditions under which the technique may be applicable. The second aims at overcoming the codebook initialization problem by proposing a novel approach which attempts to make the first phase of the channel estimation faster than the classical codebook initialization methods. Sample simulation results are provided confirming the effectiveness of the proposed initialization technique.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.81-94
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• 1998

In order to extract the contour of interesting object in the image, Kass suggested the Active Contour Model called "Snakes". Snakes is a model which defines the contour of image energy. It also can find the contour of object by minimizing these energy functions. The speed of this model is slow and this model is sensitive of initialization. In order to improve these problems, Gunn extracted the accurate contour by using two initialization. and operated to less sensitive of initialization. This method could extract more accurate contour than the existing method, but it had no effect in the speed and it was sensitive of noise. This paper applied to the Energy Minimization Algorithm about only the pixel within the window applying the window of 8$\times$8 size at each contour point consisting Snakes in order to solve these problems. The method offered in this paper is applied to extract the contour of original image and cup image added to gaussian noise. By tracking the face using this offered method, it is applied to virtual reality and motion tracking. tracking.