• Title/Summary/Keyword: model fitting

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Electrochemical Behavior of AZ31 Mg Alloy in Neutral Aqueous Solutions Containing Various Anions

  • Duyoung Kwon;Hien Van Pham;Pungkeun Song;Sungmo Moon
    • Journal of Electrochemical Science and Technology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.311-319
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    • 2023
  • This work was performed to characterize the electrochemical behavior of AZ31 Mg alloy in neutral aqueous solutions where Cl-, SO42-, PO43-, and F- ions were present and pH was adjusted to 6 to exclude the contribution of H+ and OH- ions. Open-circuit potential (OCP) transient, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and potnetiodynamic polarization curves were employed. The OCP value appeared to decrease in the order of F- > Cl- > SO42- > PO43- ions while corrosion current density increased in the same order. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data showed two capacitive arcs in all the solutions and one more inductive arc appeared in PO43--containing solution. By fitting of two capacitive arcs, capacitance of dense film (Cdf), resistance of porous film (Rpf) and double layer capacitance (Cdl) and charge transfer resistance (Rct) beneath the porous films were obtained. A simplified model in which various thicknesses and coverages of dense and porous films are assumed to be present on the AZ31 Mg alloy surface, is suggested to explain the effects of four different anions on the electrochemical behavior of AZ31 Mg alloy.

Assessment of Radionuclides(Co, Sr) Adsorption and Desorption Characteristics in Soil Using Modified Clay and Fish Bones (개질 점토 및 생선뼈를 이용한 토양 내 방사성 핵종(Co, Sr) 흡착 및 탈착 특성 평가)

  • Kang Kyungchan
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.58-70
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    • 2023
  • The improper management of radioactive waste or accidents caused by natural disasters can result in the release of radioactive materials into the surrounding environment, potentially leading to soil and groundwater contamination by radionuclides. In this study, adsorption-desorption behaviors of the radionuclides (cobalt and strontium) in natural soil, montmorillonite, Mn-PILC, Fe-PILC, and fishbone were investigated. Several models were used to predict adsorption isotherms of radionuclides on various absorbents. Adsorption isotherms of cobalt and strontium in several adsorbents were examined at pH 5.5. The amount of sorbed cobalt and strontium were represented fishbone > natural soil > Mn-PILC > Fe-PILC > montmorillonite and natural soil > Mn-PILC > fishbone > Fe-PILC > montmorillonite, respectively. Adsorption datas were fitted with several models such as Freundlich, Langmuir, Sips, Redlich-Peterson, Khan, and Generalized model. The results of curve fitting showed R2> 0.98 in all of adsorption models, except Sr2+ adsorption onto montmorillonite. For modified clays (Mn-PILC, Fe-PILC), it is suggested that, unlike natural soils and fish bones, there are not only single adsorption mechanisms but also adsorption mechanisms based on chemical adsorption and surface charge. In the case of fish bones, due to the relatively higher adsorption capacity than modified clays and its characteristic of significant desorption, it is expected more suitable for the removal of radionuclides in aquatic environments than for the immobilization of radionuclides in soil.

Real-time private consumption prediction using big data (빅데이터를 이용한 실시간 민간소비 예측)

  • Seung Jun Shin;Beomseok Seo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.13-38
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    • 2024
  • As economic uncertainties have increased recently due to COVID-19, there is a growing need to quickly grasp private consumption trends that directly reflect the economic situation of private economic entities. This study proposes a method of estimating private consumption in real-time by comprehensively utilizing big data as well as existing macroeconomic indicators. In particular, it is intended to improve the accuracy of private consumption estimation by comparing and analyzing various machine learning methods that are capable of fitting ultra-high-dimensional big data. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been demonstrated that when the number of covariates including big data is large, variables can be selected in advance and used for model fit to improve private consumption prediction performance. In addition, as the inclusion of big data greatly improves the predictive performance of private consumption after COVID-19, the benefit of big data that reflects new information in a timely manner has been shown to increase when economic uncertainty is high.

Comparison of Solar Power Generation Forecasting Performance in Daejeon and Busan Based on Preprocessing Methods and Artificial Intelligence Techniques: Using Meteorological Observation and Forecast Data (전처리 방법과 인공지능 모델 차이에 따른 대전과 부산의 태양광 발전량 예측성능 비교: 기상관측자료와 예보자료를 이용하여)

  • Chae-Yeon Shim;Gyeong-Min Baek;Hyun-Su Park;Jong-Yeon Park
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2024
  • As increasing global interest in renewable energy due to the ongoing climate crisis, there is a growing need for efficient technologies to manage such resources. This study focuses on the predictive skill of daily solar power generation using weather observation and forecast data. Meteorological data from the Korea Meteorological Administration and solar power generation data from the Korea Power Exchange were utilized for the period from January 2017 to May 2023, considering both inland (Daejeon) and coastal (Busan) regions. Temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and precipitation were selected as relevant meteorological variables for solar power prediction. All data was preprocessed by removing their systematic components to use only their residuals and the residual of solar data were further processed with weighted adjustments for homoscedasticity. Four models, MLR (Multiple Linear Regression), RF (Random Forest), DNN (Deep Neural Network), and RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), were employed for solar power prediction and their performances were evaluated based on predicted values utilizing observed meteorological data (used as a reference), 1-day-ahead forecast data (referred to as fore1), and 2-day-ahead forecast data (fore2). DNN-based prediction model exhibits superior performance in both regions, with RNN performing the least effectively. However, MLR and RF demonstrate competitive performance comparable to DNN. The disparities in the performance of the four different models are less pronounced than anticipated, underscoring the pivotal role of fitting models using residuals. This emphasizes that the utilized preprocessing approach, specifically leveraging residuals, is poised to play a crucial role in the future of solar power generation forecasting.

A Study on Estimating Earthquake Magnitudes Based on the Observed S-Wave Seismograms at the Near-Source Region (근거리 지진관측자료의 S파를 이용한 지진규모 평가 연구)

  • Yun, Kwan-Hee;Choi, Shin-Kyu;Lee, Kang-Ryel
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2024
  • There are growing concerns that the recently implemented Earthquake Early Warning service is overestimating the rapidly provided earthquake magnitudes (M). As a result, the predicted damages unnecessarily activate earthquake protection systems for critical facilities and lifeline infrastructures that are far away. This study is conducted to improve the estimation accuracy of M by incorporating the observed S-wave seismograms in the near source region after removing the site effects of the seismograms in real time by filtering in the time domain. The ensemble of horizontal S-wave spectra from at least five seismograms without site effects is calculated and normalized to a hypocentric target distance (21.54 km) by using the distance attenuation model of Q(f)=348f0.52 and a cross-over distance of 50 km. The natural logarithmic mean of the S-wave ensemble spectra is then fitted to Brune's source spectrum to obtain the best estimates for M and stress drop (SD) with the fitting weight of 1/standard deviation. The proposed methodology was tested on the 18 recent inland earthquakes in South Korea, and the condition of at least five records for the near-source region is sufficiently fulfilled at an epicentral distance of 30 km. The natural logarithmic standard deviation of the observed S-wave spectra of the ensemble was calculated to be 0.53 using records near the source for 1~10 Hz, compared to 0.42 using whole records. The result shows that the root-mean-square error of M and ln(SD) is approximately 0.17 and 0.6, respectively. This accuracy can provide a confidence interval of 0.4~2.3 of Peak Ground Acceleration values in the distant range.

The Measurement and Comparison of the Relative Efficiency for Currency Futures Markets : Advanced Currency versus Emerging Currency (통화선물시장의 상대적 효율성 측정과 비교 : 선진통화 대 신흥통화)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyuk;Eom, Cheol-Jun;Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2008
  • This study is to evaluate, to the extent to, which advanced currency futures and emerging currency futures markets can predict accurately the future spot rate. To this end, Johansen's the maximum-likelihood cointegration method(1988, 1991) is adopted to test the unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis. Also, this study is to estimate and compare a quantitative measure of relative efficiency as a ratio of the forecast error variance from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model to the forecast error variance of the futures price as predictor of the spot price in advanced currency futures with in emerging currency futures market. Advanced currency futures is British pound and Japan yen. Emerging currency futures includes Korea won, Mexico peso, and Brazil real. The empirical results are summarized as follows : First, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won and Japan yen futures exchange rates. This indicates that the emerging currency Korea won and the advanced currency Japan yen futures exchange rates are likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without the trader having to pay a risk premium for the privilege of trading the contract. Second, in emerging currency futures markets, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won futures market apart from Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets. This indicates that in emerging currency futures markets, Korea won futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets and is likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without risk premium. Third, this findings show that the results of unbiasedness hypothesis tests can provide conflicting finding. according to currency futures class and forecasts horizon period, Fourth, from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model with forecast horizons of 14 days, the findings suggest the Japan yen futures market is 27.06% efficient, the British pound futures market is 26.87% efficient, the Korea won futures market is 20.77% efficient, the Mexico peso futures market is 11.55%, and the Brazil real futures market is 4.45% efficient in the usual order. This indicates that the Korea won-dollar futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso, and Brazil real futures market. It is therefore possible to concludes that the Korea won-dollar currency futures market has relatively high efficiency comparing with Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets of emerging currency futures markets.

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Height Datum Transformation using Precise Geoid and Tidal Model in the area of Anmyeon Island (정밀 지오이드 및 조석모델을 활용한 안면도 지역의 높이기준면 변환 연구)

  • Roh, Jae Young;Lee, Dong Ha;Suh, Yong Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.109-119
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    • 2016
  • The height datum of Korea is currently separated into land and sea, which makes it difficult to acquire homogeneous and accurate height information throughout the whole nation. In this study, we therefore tried to suggest the more effective way to transform the height information were constructed separately according to each height datum on land and sea to those on the unique height datum using precise geoid models and tidal observations in Korea. For this, Anmyeon island was selected as a study area to develop the precise geoid models based on the height datums land (IMSL) and sea (LMSL), respectively. In order to develop two hybrid geoid models based on each height datum of land an sea, we firstly develop a precise gravimetric geoid model using the remove and restore (R-R) technique with all available gravity observations. The gravimetric geoid model were then fitted to the geometric geoidal heights, each of which is represented as height datum of land or sea respectively, obtained from GPS/Leveling results on 15 TBMs in the study area. Finally, we determined the differences between the two hybrid geoid models to apply the height transformation between IMSL and LMSL. The co-tidal chart model of TideBed system developed by Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA) which was re-gridded to have the same grid size and coverage as the geoid model, in order that this can be used for the height datum transformation from LMSL to local AHHW and/or from LMSL to local DL. The accuracy of height datum transformation based on the strategy suggested in this study was approximately ${\pm}3cm$. It is expected that the results of this study can help minimize not only the confusions on the use of geo-spatial information due to the disagreement caused by different height datum, land and sea, in Korea, but also the economic and time losses in the execution of coastal development and disaster prevention projects in the future.

The methodology for developing the 2007 Korean growth charts and blood pressure nomogram in Korean children and adolescents (2007 한국 소아청소년 성장곡선 및 정상혈압 분포 개발 방법론)

  • Lee, Soon Young;Kim, Youn Nam;Kang, Yeon Ji;Jang, Myoung-Jin;Kim, Jinheum;Moon, Jin Soo;Lee, Chong Guk;Oh, Kyungwon;Kim, Young Taek;Nam, Chung Mo
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.26-32
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : This study was to provide the methods of developing the growth charts and the blood pressure nomogram among Korean children and adolescents. Methods : The growth charts were developed based on the data from the national growth surveys for children and adolescents in 1998 and 2005. The percentile charts were developed through two stages. At the first stage, the selected empirical charts were smoothed through several fitting procedures including parametric and non-parametric methods. At the second stage, a modified LMS (lambda, mu, sigma) statistical procedure was applied to the smoothed percentile charts. The LMS procedure allowed to estimate any percentile and to calculate standard deviation units and z-scores. The charts for weight-for-age, height-for-age, BMI-for-age, weight-for-height and head circumference-for-age were developed by sex. Age and normalized height controlled sex-specific nomograms of systolic and diastolic blood pressure were developed by a fixed effect model of general regression using the data from 2005 national growth survey. Results : The significant systemic differences between the percentiles of growth charts and the empirical data were not found. The final output of the study is available from Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention homepage, http://www.cdc.go.kr/webcdc/. Blood Pressure nomogram was tabulated by height percentiles and age using the regression coefficients analyzed with regression model. Conclusion : 2007 growth charts and blood pressure nomogram were the first products based on the statistical modeling using the national survey data. The further study on the methodology including data collection, data cleaning and statistical modeling for representative growth charts would be needed.

The Patterns of Students' Conceptions and Teachers' Teaching Practices on Dissolution (용해 현상에 대한 학생들의 개념유형 및 교사들의 지도 실태)

  • Kang, Dae-Hun;Paik, Seoung-Hey;Park, Kuk-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.399-413
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    • 2004
  • In this study, a survey was conducted of students of elementary through college on their conceptions of phenomenon related with dissolution, saturation, and extraction. The teaching strategies of elementary and secondary teachers related to dissolution phenomena were also investigated. Most of elementary and secondary school students thought of dissolution as a phenomenon in which particles broke into the spaces between other particles. This explanation called 'space conception' can be sought in elementary school science textbooks. Some of high school students also had this type of thought. A concept of dissolution phenomenon as 'hydration through attraction of solvent and solute' was held by most of students of 11th, 12th grade, and college. This explanation called 'attraction concept' can be sought in high school chemistry textbooks for 11th and 12th grade. But many students of elementary through college used analogies and models related to 'space conception' when they tried to explain the dissolution phenomena. This indicates that the 'attraction concept' was not firmly established in the students' cognition. 90% of elementary school teachers thought and taught dissolution as a phenomenon in which two different size particles were mixing together like as mixing beans and millets. The model does not represent the attractions among solvent-solvent particles, solvent-solute particles, and solute-solute particles. This model only represents the space size effect (smaller size particles fitting into the spaces of larger size particles). Half of the secondary school teachers also had 'space conception' and only 20% of the teachers had 'attraction concept' Many teachers who had 'attraction concept' used to represent explanation related to 'space conception' for teaching dissolution.

Development of the Topography Restoration Method for Debris Flow Area Using Airborne LiDAR Data (항공 라이다 자료를 이용한 토석류 발생지역의 지형복원기법 개발)

  • Woo, Choong-Shik;Youn, Ho-Joong;Lee, Chang-Woo;Lee, Kyu-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.174-187
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    • 2011
  • The flowed soil is able to be estimated from topographic data of before and after the debris flow. However, it is often difficult to obtain airborne LiDAR data before the debris flow area. Thus, this study tries to develop a topographic restoration method that can provide spatial distribution of flowed soil and reconstruct the topography before the debris flow using airborne LiDAR data. The topographic restoration method can express a numerical formula induced from a Gaussian mixture model after extracting the cross sections of linear or non-linear in debris flowed area. The topographic restoration method was verified by two ways using airborne LiDAR data of before and after the debris flow. First, each cross section extracted from the debris flow sites to restore the topography was compared with airborne LiDAR data of before the debris flow. Also, the topographic data produced after the topographic restoration method applied to the debris flow sites was verified by airborne LiDAR DEM. Verifying the results of the topographic restoration method, overall fitting accuracy showed high accuracy close to 0.5m.