• Title/Summary/Keyword: model factor

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Forecasting Korea's GDP growth rate based on the dynamic factor model (동적요인모형에 기반한 한국의 GDP 성장률 예측)

  • Kyoungseo Lee;Yaeji Lim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.255-263
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    • 2024
  • GDP represents the total market value of goods and services produced by all economic entities, including households, businesses, and governments in a country, during a specific time period. It is a representative economic indicator that helps identify the size of a country's economy and influences government policies, so various studies are being conducted on it. This paper presents a GDP growth rate forecasting model based on a dynamic factor model using key macroeconomic indicators of G20 countries. The extracted factors are combined with various regression analysis methodologies to compare results. Additionally, traditional time series forecasting methods such as the ARIMA model and forecasting using common components are also evaluated. Considering the significant volatility of indicators following the COVID-19 pandemic, the forecast period is divided into pre-COVID and post-COVID periods. The findings reveal that the dynamic factor model, incorporating ridge regression and lasso regression, demonstrates the best performance both before and after COVID.

The Measurement Invariance Test of Korean Version CES-DC 11 (11-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression for Children) according to Gender (한국어판 CES-DC 11(the 11-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression for Children) 척도의 성별에 따른 측정불변성 검증)

  • Lee Soon-hee;Hoe Maan-se
    • Journal of School Social Work
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    • v.42
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    • pp.237-261
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of the present was to verify the four-factor model and the high-order four-factor model of the CES-DC 11 (Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale Children) scale used to measure depression of adolescents in Korea. For this purpose, data were collected randomly from 193 middle school third grade student in large-scaled cities. The collected data were identified their measurement invariance through various data analysis techniques, reliability analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and high-order factor analysis. The main results of this present are as follows. First, the confirmatory factor analysis and the high-order factor analysis showed that the CES-DC 11 scale was a suitable model for both the four-factor model and the higher-order 4 factor. Second, the CES-DC 11 scale showed that both the four-factor model and the higher-order 4-factor model maintained the measurement invariance between male and female groups. Therefore, the researcher adopted the high-order four factor model as the most suitable final model. The results of this study show that the Korean version CES-DC 11 scale is a highly reliable and valid scale avaliable regardless of sex in measuring the depression of adolescents in Korea. It is suggested that this scale can be used for comparing the male and female adolescent groups with depression in future studies. A suggestion is presented for specific discussions and follow-up studies.

Test Results of Friction Factor for Round-Hole Roughness Surfaces in Closely Spaced Channel Flow of Water

  • Ha, Tae Woong
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.1849-1858
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    • 2004
  • For examining friction-factor characteristics of round-hole pattern surfaces which are usually applied on damper seals, flat plate test apparatus is designed and fabricated. The measurement method of leakage and pressure distribution along round-hole pattern specimen with different hole area is described and a method for determining the Fanning friction factor is discussed. Results show that the round-hole pattern surfaces provide a much larger friction factor than smooth surface, and the friction factor vs. clearance behavior yields that the friction factor generally decreases as the clearance increases unlike the results of Nava's flat plate test. As the hole depth is decreased, the friction factor is increased, and maximum friction factor is obtained for 50% of hole area. Since the present experimental friction factor results show coincident characteristics with Moody's friction factor model, empirical friction factors for round-hole pattern surfaces are obtained by using the Moody's formula based on curve-fit of the experimental data. Results of Villasmil's 2D CFD simulation support the present experimental test result.

A study on the Application of Gravity Model using 1990 Seoul O/D Data (1990년 서울특별시 O/D자료를 이용한 중력모형적용에 관한 연구)

  • 임성빈;이부원
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.29-42
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    • 1996
  • Among trip distribution models, The BPR type Gravity Model is the one which is the most widely used. The key issue associated with this model is a functional form of friction factor which should be calibrated in the process, and interpretation for socioeconomic factor known as K-factor(Kij) which is used to adjust the difference between observed zone-to-zone trips and the estimated trips. In this study, the BPR type Gravity Model has been fitted to 1990 O/D data for Seoul. Two type of function form for friction factor has been employed : one is a form of Generalized function and the orther is UTP function. With above two function, the parameters for travel distance(Skin-tree) are prepared. The relationship between socioeconomic factor and trips is identified by calculating and analyzing the characteristics of Kij. Consequently, both of the friction factor functions are statistically signified. However, it show an overestimation tendency when estimated with UTP function. It is found that the Generalized function is suitable for the city of Seoul, and also, in case there are a lot of trips correlatively, the socioeconomic factor is close to 1, on the other hand if it's small, it shows a bias which is dispersed around 1.

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Oscillation of Microbeam Structure with Irregular Mass Distribution

  • Kang, Seok-Joo;Kim, Jung-Hwan;Kim, Ji-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2013.04a
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    • pp.528-532
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    • 2013
  • In this study, an analytical model of micro-beam structure including thermoelastic damping with irregularly distributed masses is investigated. The significance of thermoelastic damping for micro-scale mechanical resonators is evaluated to design -with high quality factor(Q-factor). The beam model of this work is based on Euler-Bernoulli beam theory. In order to determine the natural frequency of the model, energy method is applied. Also, the thermoelatic damping effects are considered by using heat conduction equations, and the Q-factor can be determined. To derive the equation of motion, non-dimensionalization is employed for systematic analysis. Results of the model are verified, and present mode shapes and Q-factors for the micro-beam with thermoelastic damping including random point masses.

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Comparative Study of Model Selection Using Bayes Factor through Simulation : Poisson vs. Negative Binomial Model Selection and Normal, Double Exponential vs. Cauchy Model Selection (시뮬레이션을 통한 베이즈요인에 의한 모형선택의 비교연구 : 포아송, 음이항모형의 선택과 정규, 이중지수, 코쉬모형의 선택)

  • 오미라;윤소영;심정욱;손영숙
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.335-349
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we use Bayesian method for model selection of poisson vs. negative binomial distribution, and normal, double exponential vs. cauchy distribution. The fractional Bayes factor of O'Hagan (1995) was applied to Bayesian model selection under the assumption of noninformative improper priors for all parameters in the models. Through the analyses of real data and simulation data, we examine the usefulness of the fractional Bayes factor in comparison with intrinsic Bayes factors of Berger and Pericchi (1996, 1998).

Analysis of Quality Characteristics of Smart Phone Using Modified Kano Model (수정된 Kano 모델을 이용한 스마트 폰의 품질특성 평가)

  • Kim, Tai-Oun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2012
  • The relationship between product quality/function and customer satisfaction has been considered an important point for the new product development. The seminal paper by Kano was the first to thoroughly address the non-linear relationship between product performance/function and customer satisfaction. In the analysis framework of the original Kano model, five factors are assumed, among which indifference factor occupies 40% in the classification scheme. When we analyze survey response using Kano model, many quality attributes can be resulted in indifference factor. This implies that some attributes which are meaningful tend to be classified as indifferent attributes for the customer satisfaction. In order to tackle this problem, a modified Kano model is proposed by reducing the indifference factor. The modified Kano model can be robust for the survey response. A survey is performed for the quality attributes of the smart phone. The response is analyzed and compared based on the original and modified Kano model. The surveyed quality characteristics of the smart phone are performance related attributes, application programs, functional attributes and subjective emotional quality attributes. Many quality attributes classified as indifference factor in the original model are classified as attractive, must-be, and expected factors, respectively.

Stress Analysis of Truss Connection subjected to Moving Load Using Section Properties Factor (단면 수정계수를 이용한 이동 하중에 따른 트러스 연결부의 응력해석)

  • 이상호;배기훈
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.354-361
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    • 2002
  • This paper propose section properties factor to generate stress history for fatigue analysis and safety inspection of steel bridge. A methodology is described for the computation of numerical stress histories in the steel truss bridge, caused by the vehicles using section properties factor. The global 3-D beam model of bridge is combined with the local shell model of selected details. Joint geometry is introduced by the local shell model. The global beam model takes the effects of joint rigidity and interaction of structural elements into account. Connection nodes in the global beam model correspond to the end cross-section centroids of the local shell model. Their displacements are interpreted as imposed deformations on the local shell model. The load cases fur the global model simulate the vertical unit force along the stringers. The load cases fer the local model are imposed unit deformations. Combining these, and applying vehicle loads, numerical stress histories are obtained. The method is illustrated by test load results of an existing bridge.

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A Study on the Satisfaction Factors in PC Communication Service Users (PC통신서비스 이용자의 만족요인에 관한 연구)

  • 이종호
    • Proceedings of the Korea Association of Information Systems Conference
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    • 1997.10b
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    • pp.271-285
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    • 1997
  • This paper address the issues of satisfaction factors to measure the service quality in computer communication service users. In order to develope a satisfaction factors' model, we study appropriate quality factors of the service through the focus group interviews with service users, and surveys the quality levels that users have felt in services. It also analyzes the relationship between the user's quality level and the quality factors by the statistical analyses. Based on the optimal regression model, we suggest an appropriate satisfaction model in PC communication service areas. That model shows that most users are interested in the fare for use. Use-fare factor is the most powerful one to the satisfaction model. Second one is usefulness, next is correctness. But connect-status factor is the only negative one. Most users think that its factor is in the way of fluent communication. So to keep the competitiveness in the PC communication service, the sixth negative factor should be modified as soon as possible.

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Model and Field Testing of a Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine Combustor

  • Ahn, Kook-Young;Kim, Han-Seok;Antonovsky, Vjacheslav-Ivanovich
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.1319-1327
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    • 2001
  • The results of stand and field testing of a combustion chamber for a heavy-duty 150 MW gas turbine are discussed. The model represented one of 14 identical segments of a tubular multican combustor constructed 1:1 scale. The model experiments were executed at a lower pressure than that in a real gas turbine. Combustion efficiency, pressure loss factor, pattern factor, liner wall temperature, flame radiation, fluctuating pressure and NOx emission were measured at partial and full loads for both model and on-site testing. The comparison of these items in the stand and field test results led to has the development of a method of calculation and the improvement of gas turbine combustors.

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