• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07d
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• pp.2669-2671
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• 2001

In this paper, we propose design a Multi-Fuzzy Inference model structure. In order to determine structure of the proposed Multi-Fuzzy Inference model, HCM clustering method is used. The parameters of membership function of the Multi-Fuzzy are identified by genetic algorithms. A aggregate performance index with a weighting factor is used to achieve a sound balance between approximation and generalization abilities of the model. We use simplified inference and linear inference as inference method of the proposed Multi-Fuzzy model and the standard least square method for estimating consequence parameters of the Multi-Fuzzy. Finally, we use some of numerical data to evaluate the proposed Multi-Fuzzy model and discuss about the usefulness.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.511-516
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• 1996

In this paper, weekly maximum power demand forecasting method in consideration of temperature estimation using a time series model was presented. The method removing weekly, seasonal variations on the load and irregularities variation due to unknown factor was presented. The forecasting model that represent the relations between load and temperature which get a numeral expected temperature based on the past 30 years(1961~1990) temperature was constructed. Effect of holiday was removed by using a weekday change ratio, and irregularities variation was removed by using an autoregressive model. The results of load forecasting show the ability of the method in forecasting with good accuracy without suffering from the effect of seasons and holidays. Percentage error load forecasting of all seasons except summer was obtained below 2 percentage. (author). refs., figs., tabs.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.11 no.5
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• pp.523-529
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• 2011

In a tall building construction with reinforced concrete structures, the selection of an appropriate formwork system is a crucial factor for the success of the project. Thus, selecting an appropriate formwork system affects the entire construction duration and cost, as well as subsequent construction activities. However, in practice, the selection of an appropriate formwork system has depended mainly on the intuitive and subjective opinion of working level employees with restricted experience. Therefore, in this study, a formwork system selection model using the Adaboost algorithm is proposed to support the selection of a formwork system that is suitable for the construction site conditions. To validate the applicability of the proposed model, the selection models Adaboost and ANN were both applied to actual case data of tall building construction in Korea. The Adaboost model showed slightly better accuracy than that of the ANN model. The Adaboost model can assist engineers to determine the appropriate formwork system at the inception of future projects.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.88-103
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• 1996

The objective of this study is to develop stochastic and deterministic models which could be used to synthesize water application time series. Adaptive models using mulitivariate ARIMA(Transfer Function Model) are developed for daily urban water use forecasting. The model considers several variables on which water demands is dependent. The dynamic response of water demands to several factors(e.g. weekday, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall) are characterized in the model by transfer functions. Daily water use data of Kumi city in 1992 are employed for model parameter estimation. Meteorological data of Seonsan station are utilized to input variables because Kumi has no records about the meteorological factor data.To determine the main factors influencing water use, autocorrelogram and cross correlogram analysis are performed. Through the identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking of tentative model, final transfer function models by each month are established. The simulation output by transfer function models are compared to a historical data and shows the good agreement.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.145-150
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• 2014

Precision control of the slab is crucial for product quality and production economy in hot strip mills. The current study presents a new model for predicting width spread of a slab with a rectangular cross section during roughing. The model is developed on the basis of the extremum principle for a rigid plastic material and a three dimensional admissible velocity field. This model incorporates the effect of process variables such as the shape factor and the ratio of width to thickness. We compare the results of this model to 3-D finite element (FE) process simulations and also to results from a previous study.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.44-50
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• 2001

Large container carriers are suffering from lack of knowledge on reliable correlation allowances between model tests and full-scale trials, especially at fully loaded condition, Careful full-scale sea trial with a full loading of containers both in holds and on decks was carried out to clarify it. Model test results were analyzed by different methods but with the same measuring data to figure out appropriated correlations factors for each analysis methods, Even if it is no doubt that model test technique is one of the most reliable tool to predict full scale powering performance, its assumptions and simplifications which have been applied on the course of data manipulation and analysis need a feedback from sea trial data for a fine tuning, so called correlation factor. It can be stated that the best correlation allowances at fully loaded condition for both 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional analysis methods are fecund through the careful sea trial results and relevant study on the large size container carriers.

• Trans-
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• v.14
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• pp.65-92
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• 2023

The knowledge of the narrative agent not only constitutes the content and meaning of the narrative itself, but is also closely related to the emotional response of the recipient. Also, the disparity of knowledge between narrative agents is an important factor in making a narrative richer and more interesting. But It tends to be treated as a sub-topic of narration theory or genre/style studies rather than an independent subject of narrative studies or criticism. In this paper, I propose a model that can systematically and quantitatively analyze the knowledge of narrative agents. The proposed model consists of the knowledge structure that represents a narrative, the knowledge state that expresses the knowledge of narrative agent as a degree of belief, and the knowledge flow that means changes in the knowledge state according to the development of events. In addition, the formal notation of the knowledge structure and a probabilistic inference model that could obtain the state of knowledge were proposed, and the knowledge structure and knowledge flow were analyzed by applying the model to the actual narrative. It is expected that the proposed model will be of practical help in the creation and evaluation of narratives.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.735-761
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• 2004

As a possible alternative to Traditional Discounted Cash Flow Method, "Option Pricing Model" has drawn academic attentions for the last a few decades. However, it has failed to replace traditional DCF method practically due to its mathematical complexity. This paper introduces an option pricing valuation model specifically adjusted for the natural resource development projects. We add market information and industry-specific features into the model so that the model remains objective as well as realistic after the adjustment. The following two features of natural resource development projects take central parts in model construction; product price is a unique source of cash flow's uncertainty, and the projects have cost structure from capital-intense industry, in which initial capital cost takes most part of total cost during the projects. To improve the adaptability of Option Pricing Model specifically to the natural resource development projects, we use Two-Factor Model and Long-term Asset Model for the analysis. Although the model introduced in this paper is still simple and reflects limited reality, we expect an improvement in applicability of option pricing method for the evaluation of natural resource development projects can be made through the process taken in this paper.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.63-71
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• 2019

The two-fluid model proposed by Herman and Prigogine is useful for analyzing macroscopic traffic flow in a network. The two-fluid model is used for analyzing a network through the relationship between the ratio of stopped vehicles and the average moving speed of the network, and the two-fluid model has also been applied in the urban transportation network where many signalized or unsignalized intersections existed. In general, the average travel speed and moving speed of a network decrease, and the ratio of stopped vehicles and low speed vehicles in network increase as the traffic demand increases. This study proposed the two-fluid model considering congested and uncongested traffic situations. The critical velocity and the weight factor for congested situation are calibrated by minimizing the root mean square error (RMSE). The critical speed of the Seoul network was about 34 kph, and the weight factor of the congestion on the network was about 0.61. In the proposed model, $R^2$ increased from 0.78 to 0.99 when compared to the existing model, suggesting that the proposed model can be applied in evaluating network performances or traffic signal operations.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.283-290
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• 2014

In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.