• 제목/요약/키워드: model analysis

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Analysis on Procurement Auction System in Public Procurement Service (공공투자사업의 입·낙찰 분석)

  • Kim, Jungwook
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.144-170
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    • 2010
  • This paper considers the effect of various types of procurement auction system on competition focusing on the rate of successful bidding. We analyze the number of bidders and the rate of successful bids using online procurement data of the Public Procurement Service. The average number of bidders is 301 and the average rate of successful bids is 87.42% while the weighted average rate is 75.13%. These numbers show that there is quite strong competition among bidders and the rate is lower as the expected price is higher. When we analyze the data of price procurement auction, the rate is also shown to be lower as the expected price is higher. Furthermore, the rate decreases as the number of bidders increases which naturally makes the competition stronger. Meanwhile, the analysis finds that the inclusion of the onsite bidding, the PQ(Pre-Qualification) result, or major-10 winning companies cannot explain the rate much in our data. In case of turnkey-alternative, the average rate of successful bidding for 484 cases record 90.20%. The average is 84.89% with 120 alternatives and 91.97% with 364 cases of turnkey. The reason why the rate of turnkey-alternative is lower than that of price procurement auction is the lack of competition as well as the systematic difference. By setting up a model, we are able to explain the difference in rate caused by the respective reason. When we suppose there are 3 bidders in case of price procurement auction for a project that exceeds 100 billion won, the rate is expected to be around 64%. This implies that difference of 26% is caused by the systemic difference and 3% by the lack of competition. Therefore, we conclude that the difference in rate between turnkey-alternative and price procurement auction is caused mainly by the systemic difference. In case of PPP(Public Private Partnership) projects, among 154 projects in total, only 40% has more than 2 bidders that compete. The average number of bidders is 1.88 which is less than 2, and the average rate of successful bids is 90%. In sum, under the price procurement auction, there is strong competition which is reflected by the rate of successful bids. However, there is room to decrease the rate by strengthening the competition under the turnkey-alternative. Also with PPP projects, we expect the rate can be steadily reduced with revived competition among bidders.

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The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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A Geographically Weighted Regression on the Effect of Regulation of Space Use on the Residential Land Price - Evidence from Jangyu New Town - (공간사용 규제가 택지가격에 미치는 영향에 대한 공간가중회귀분석 - 장유 신도시지역을 대상으로-)

  • Kang, Sun-Duk;Park, Sae-Woon;Jeong, Tae-Yun
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.27-47
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we examine how land use zoning affects the land price controlling other variables such as road-facing condition of the land, land form, land age after its development and land size. We employ geographically weighted regression analysis which reflects spatial dependency as methodology with a data sample of land transaction price data of Jangyu, a new town, in Korea. The results of our empirical analysis show that the respective coefficients of traditional regression and geographically weighted regression are not significantly different. However, after calculating Moran's Index with residuals of both OLS and GWR models, we find that Moran's Index of GWR decreases around 26% compared to that of OLS model, thus improving the problem of spatial autoregression of residuals considerably. Unlike our expectation, though, in both traditional regression and geographically weighted regression where residential exclusive area is used as a reference variable, the dummy variable of the residential land for both housing and shops shows a negative sign. This may be because the residential land for both housing and shops is usually located in the level area while the residential exclusive area is located at the foot of a mountain or on a gentle hill where the residents can have good quality air and scenery. Although the utility of the residential land for both housing and shops is higher than its counterpart's since it has higher floor area ratio, amenity which can be explained as high quality of air and scenery in this study seems to have higher impact in purchase of land for housing. On the other hand, land for neighbourhood living facility seems to be valued higher than any other land zonings used in this research since it has much higher floor area ratio than the two land zonings above and can have a building with up to 5 stories constructed on it. With regard to road-facing condition, land buyers seem to prefer land which faces a medium-width road as expected. Land facing a wide-width road may have some disadvantage in that it can be exposed to noise and exhaust gas from cars and that entrance may not be easy due to the high speed traffic of the road. In contrast, land facing a narrow road can be free of noise or fume from cars and have privacy protected while it has some inconvenience in that entrance may be blocked by cars parked in both sides of the narrow road. Finally, land age variable shows a negative sign, which means that the price of land declines over time. This may be because decline of the land price of Jangyu was bigger than that of other regions in Gimhae where Jangyu, a new town, also belong, during the global financial crisis of 2008.

The Modulation of Radiosensitivity by Combined Treatment of Selective COX-2 Inhibitor, NS 398 and EGF Receptor Blocker AG 1478 in HeLa Cell Line (선택적 COX-2 억제제 NS 398과 EGF 수용체 차단제 AG 1478의 복합투여가 HeLa 세포주의 방사선 감수성에 미치는 영향)

  • Youn Seon Min;Oh Young Kee;Kim Joo Heon;Park Mi Ja;Seong In Ock;Kang Kimun;Chai Gyuyong
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : Selective inhibition of multiple molecular targets may improve the antitumor activity of radiation. Two specific inhibitors of selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) were combined with radiation on the HeLa cell line. To investigate cooperative mechanism with selective COX-2 inhibitor and EGFR blocker, in vitro experiments were done. Materials and Methods : Antitumor effect was obtained by growth inhibition and apoptosis analysis by annexin V-Flous method. Radiation modulation effects were determined by the clonogenic cell survival assay. Surviving fractions at 2 Gy ($SF_2$) and dose enhancement ratio at a surviving fraction of 0.25 were evaluated. To investigate the mechanism of the modulation of radiosensitivity, the cell cycle analyses were done by flow cytometry. The bcl-2 and bax expressions were analyzed by western blot. Results : A cooperative effect were observed on the apoptosis of the HeLa ceil line when combination of the two drugs, AG 1478 and NS 398 with radiation at the lowest doses, apoptosis of $22.70\%$ compare with combination of the one drug with radiation, apoptosis of $8.49\%$. In cell cycle analysis, accumulation of cell on $G_0/G_l$ phase and decrement of S phase fraction was observed from 24 hours to 72 hours after treatment with radiation, AG 1478 and NS 398. The combination of NS 398 and AG 1478 enhanced radiosensitivity on a concentration-dependent manner in HeLa cells with dose enhancement ratios of 3.00 and $SF_2$ of 0.12 but the combination of one drug with radiation was not enhanced radlosensitivity with dose enhancement ratios of 1.12 and SF2 of 0.68 (p=0.005). The expression levels of bcl-2 and bax were reduced when combined with AG 1478 and NS 398. Conclusion : Our results indicate that the selective COX-2 inhibitor and EGFR blocker combined with radiation have potential additive or cooperative effects on radiation treatment and may act through various mechanisms including direct inhibition of tumor cell proliferation, suppression of tumor cell cycle progression and inhibition of anti-apoptotic proteins.

Initial results from spatially averaged coherency, frequency-wavenumber, and horizontal to vertical spectrum ratio microtremor survey methods for site hazard study at Launceston, Tasmania (Tasmania 의 Launceston 시의 위험 지역 분석을 위한 공간적 평균 일관성, 주파수-파수, 수평과 수직 스펙트럼의 비율을 이용한 상신 진동 탐사법의 일차적 결과)

  • Claprood, Maxime;Asten, Michael W.
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.132-142
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    • 2009
  • The Tamar rift valley runs through the City of Launceston, Tasmania. Damage has occurred to city buildings due to earthquake activity in Bass Strait. The presence of the ancient valley, the Tamar valley, in-filled with soft sediments that vary rapidly in thickness from 0 to 250mover a few hundreds metres, is thought to induce a 2D resonance pattern, amplifying the surface motions over the valley and in Launceston. Spatially averaged coherency (SPAC), frequency-wavenumber (FK) and horizontal to vertical spectrum ratio (HVSR) microtremor survey methods are combined to identify and characterise site effects over the Tamar valley. Passive seismic array measurements acquired at seven selected sites were analysed with SPAC to estimate shear wave velocity (slowness) depth profiles. SPAC was then combined with HVSR to improve the resolution of these profiles in the sediments to an approximate depth of 125 m. Results show that sediments thicknesses vary significantly throughout Launceston. The top layer is composed of as much as 20m of very soft Quaternary alluvial sediments with a velocity from 50 m/s to 125 m/s. Shear-wave velocities in the deeper Tertiary sediment fill of the Tamar valley, with thicknesses from 0 to 250m vary from 400 m/s to 750 m/s. Results obtained using SPAC are presented at two selected sites (GUN and KPK) that agree well with dispersion curves interpreted with FK analysis. FK interpretation is, however, limited to a narrower range of frequencies than SPAC and seems to overestimate the shear wave velocity at lower frequencies. Observed HVSR are also compared with the results obtained by SPAC, assuming a layered earth model, and provide additional constraints on the shear wave slowness profiles at these sites. The combined SPAC and HVSR analysis confirms the hypothesis of a layered geology at the GUN site and indicates the presence of a 2D resonance pattern across the Tamar valley at the KPK site.

The Ways to Improve Competitiveness and Performance for Salesmen of Small and Medium IT Company: Focusing on Organizational Citizenship Behavior and Corporate Performance (중소 IT기업 영업사원의 경쟁력 강화를 위한 성과 창출 제고 방안: 조직시민행동 및 경영성과 제고 방안을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Gyu-Don;Lee, Sang-Jin;Lee, Chul-Gyu
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.101-128
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    • 2016
  • To improve competitiveness & performance for salesmen of small & medium IT company, this study aims not only to inspect how value orientation, leadership & justice make effects for Organizational Citizenship Behavior & Business Corporate Performance & but also to explore the role of adaptive selling practices as parameter. To support the study, the data collected from 314 employees in sales roles at more than 200 IT companies was processed via. regression analysis method. The research model of study lies at identification of 'the Effects of Value Orientation, Leadership, & Justice of/Posed by the Salesmen of a IT Company on Organizational Citizenship Behavior & Corporate Performance' based on the phenomena of unfair sales strategies rampantly being taken for short-term profits & survivals despite of the value of upholding business ethics to realize long-term, sustainable growth of a business of company. The hypotheses of this study are formulated as follows. First, value orientation, leadership, & justice shall have effects on organizational citizenship behavior & Corporate performance. Second, adaptive selling practices shall function as the parameters between the independent & dependent variables. The analysis results on the research, undertaken with verification of parametric effects, confirm the following: 1. Value orientation imposes positive (+) effects on adaptive selling practices which impose positive (+) impacts on organizational citizenship behavior & Corporate performance. 2. Adaptive selling practices function as a full parameter between value orientation & organizational citizenship behavior whilst functioning as a partial parameter between value orientation & Corporate performance. 3. Leadership imposes positive (+) effects on adaptive selling practices which impose positive (+) effects on organizational citizenship behavior & Corporate performance. 4. Adaptive selling practices function as a partial parameter between leadership & organizational citizenship behavior whilst functioning as a full parameter between leadership & Corporate performance. Therefore, this study is concluded that establishing & executing sales strategies in consideration of value orientation & fairness is of extreme importance for IT companies to realize & maintain their sustainable corporate management, & last but not least, it is necessary for IT companies to proactively introduce & provide educational systems for their salesmen thus to help them to uphold & sustain ethics & values of the business.

Analysis of Prognostic Factors in Glioblastoma Multiforme (다형성 교모세포증 환자의 예후인자 분석)

  • Chang Sei Kyung;Suh Chang Ok;Lee Sang Wook;Keum Ki Chang;Kim Gwi Eon;Kim Woo Cheol
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.181-189
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    • 1996
  • Purpose : To find the more effective treatment methods that improving the survival of patients with glioblastoma multiforme(GBM), we analyze the prognostic factors and the outcome of therapy in patients with GBM. Materials and Methods : One hundred twently-one patients with a diagnosis of GBM treated at Severance Hospital between 1973 and 1993 were analyzed for survival with respect to patients characteristics, that is, duration of symptom, age, and Karnofsky performance status, as well as treatment related variables such as extent of surgery and radiotherapy. Results : The median survival time(MST) and 2-year overall survival rate (OSR) of the patients with GBM were 13 months and $20.8\%$, respectively. Duration of symptom, age, Karnofsky performance status(KPS), radiotherapy, and extent of surgical resection were associated with improved survial in a univariate analysis. Patients whose duration of symptom was longer than 3 months, had the 2-year OSR of $47.2\%$(p=0.0082), who were younger than age 50, $32.9\%$(p=0.0003) In patients with a KPS of 80 or higher, the 2-rear OSR was $36.9\%$(p=0.0422). Patients undergoing radiotherapy had the 2-year OSR of $22.9\%$(p=0.0030), and surgical resection of $23.3\%$ (p<0.000). A Cox regression model confirmed a significant correlation of duration of symptom, age, radiotherapy, and extent of surgical resection with survival, excluding KPS(P=0.8823). The 2-year OSR were $22.3\%$ and $19.4\%$, combined with chemotherapy or without, respectively(p=0.6028). The duration of symptom of 3 months or shorter, 50 years of age or older, and undergoing stereotactic biopsy only were considered as risk factors, then patients without any risk factors had the MST of 29 months and 2-year OSR of $53.9\%$ compared to 4 months and $0\%$ for Patients who had all 3 risk factors. Most of all treatment failures occurred in the primary tumor site($80.4\%$). Conclusion : The duration of symptom, age, radiotherapy, and extent of surgical resection were a prognostically significant indeuendent variables. To get a better survival, it seems to be reasonable that the study design which improves the local control rates is warranted.

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Postoperative Radiotherapy in Malignant Tumors of the Parotid Gland (이하선 악성종양의 수술 후 방사선 치료)

  • Chung Woong-Ki;Ahn Sung Ja;Nam Taek Ken;Chung Kyung-Ae;Nah Byung Sik
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.251-258
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : This study was performed to analyze the factors affecting local control in malignant tumors of the parotid gland treated with surgery and postoperative radiation. Materials and methods : Twenty-six patients were treated for malignant tumors of the parotid gland from 1986 to 1995 at Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Chonnam University Hospital. Age of the patients ranged from 14 to 72 years (median : 55 years). Histologically 10 patients of mucoepidermoid carcinoma, 7 of squamous cell carcinoma, 4 of acinic cell carcinoma, 4 of adenoid cystic carcinoma and 1 of adenocarcinoma were treated. Total parotidectomy was performd in 15 of 26 patients, superficial in 7, subtotal in 4. Facial nerve was sacrificed in 5 patients. Postoperatively 4 patients had residual disease, 4 had positive resection margin. Radiation was delivered through an ipsilateral wedged pair of photon in 11 patients. High energy electron beam was mixed with photon in 15 patients. Electron beam dose ranged from 900 cGy to 3800 cGy (median 1700 cGy). Total radiation dose ranged from 5000 cGy to 7560 cGy (median : 6020 cGy). Minimum follow-up period was 2 years. Local control and survival rate were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method. Generalized Wilcoxon test and Cox proportional hazard model were used to test factors affecting local control. Results : Five (19$\%$) of 26 patients had local recurrence. Five year local control rate was 77$\%$. Overall five year survival rate was 70$\%$. Sex, age, tumor size, surgical involvement of cervical lymph node, involvement of resection margin, surgical invasion of nerve, and total dose were analyzed as suggested factors affecting local control rate. Among them patients with tumor size less than 4 cm (p=0.002) and negative resection margin (p=0.011) were associated with better local control rates in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed only tumor size factor is associated with local control rate (p=0.022). Conclusion : This study suggested that tumor size is important in local control of malignant tumors of parotid gland.

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Effect of Inhomogeneity correction for lung volume model in TPS (Lnug Volume을 모델로 한 방사선치료계획 시 불균질 조직 보정에 따른 효과)

  • Chung SeYoung;Lee SangRok;Kim YoungBum;Kwon YoungHo
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2004
  • Introduction : The phantom that includes high density materials such as steel was custom-made to fix lung and bone in order to evaluation inhomogeneity correction at the time of conducting radiation therapy to treat lung cancer. Using this, values resulting from the inhomogeneous correction algorithm are compared on the 2 and 3 dimensional radiation therapy planning systems. Moreover, change in dose calculation was evaluated according to inhomogeneous by comparing with the actual measurement. Materials and Methods : As for the image acquisition, inhomogeneous correction phantom(Pig's vertebra, steel(8.21g/cm3), cork(0.23 g/cm3)) that was custom-made and the CT(Volume zoom, Siemens, Germany) were used. As for the radiation therapy planning system, Marks Plan(2D) and XiO(CMS, USA, 3D) were used. To compare with the measurement value, linear accelerator(CL/1800, Varian, USA) and ion chamber were used. Image, obtained from the CT was used to obtain point dose and dose distribution from the region of interest (ROI) while on the radiation therapy planning device. After measurement was conducted under the same conditions, value on the treatment planning device and measured value were subjected to comparison and analysis. And difference between the resulting for the evaluation on the use (or non-use) of inhomogeneity correction algorithm, and diverse inhomogeneity correction algorithm that is included in the radiation therapy planning device was compared as well. Results : As result of comparing the results of measurement value on the region of interest within the inhomogeneity correction phantom and the value that resulted from the homogeneous and inhomogeneous correction, gained from the therapy planning device, margin of error of the measurement value and inhomogeneous correction value at the location 1 of the lung showed $0.8\%$ on 2D and $0.5\%$ on 3D. Margin of error of the measurement value and inhomogeneous correction value at the location 1 of the steel showed $12\%$ on 2D and $5\%$ on 3D, however, it is possible to see that the value that is not correction and the margin of error of the measurement value stand at $16\%$ and $14\%$, respectively. Moreover, values of the 3D showed lower margin of error compared to 2D. Conclusion : Revision according to the density of tissue must be executed during radiation therapy planning. To ensure a more accurate planning, use of 3D planning system is recommended more so than the 2D Planning system to ensure a more accurate revision on the therapy plan. Moreover, 3D Planning system needs to select and use the most accurate and appropriate inhomogeneous correction algorithm through actual measurement. In addition, comparison and analysis through TLD or film dosimetry are needed.

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A STUDY ON TEMPERATURE VARIATION OF THE UPPER THERMOSPHERE IN THE HIGH LATITUDE THROUGH THE ANALYSIS OF 6300 $\AA$ AIRGLOW DATA (6300 $\AA$ 대기광 자료 분석을 통한 고위도 열권 상부에서의 온도 변화)

  • 정종균;김용하;원영인;이방용
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.94-108
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    • 1997
  • The temperature of the upper thermosphere is generally varied with the solar activity, and largely with geomagnetic activity in the high latitude. The data analyzed in this study are acquired at two ground stations, Thule Air Base($76,5{deg} N, 68.4{deg} W, A = 86{deg}$) and $S{psi}ndre Str{psi}mfjord (67.0{deg} N, 50.9{deg} W, A = 74{deg}$), Greenland. Both stations are located in the high latitude not only geographically but also geomagnetically. The terrestrial night glow at 6300 ${angs}$ from atomic oxygen has been observed from the two ground-based Fabry-Perot interferometers, during periods of 1986~1991 in Thule Air Base and 1986~1994 in $S{psi}ndre Str{psi}mfjord$. Some features noted in this study are as follows: (1) The correlation between the solar activity and the measured thermospheric temperature is highest in the case of $3{leq}Kp{leq}4$ in Thule, and increases with the geomagnetic activity in $S{psi}ndre Str{psi}mfjord$. (2) The measured temperatures at Thule is generally higher than those at $S{psi}ndre Str{psi}mfjord$, but the latter shows steeper slope with the solar activity. (3) The harmonic analysis shows that the diurnal variation(24hrs) is the main feature of the daily temperature variation with a temperature peak at about 13-14 LT (LT=UT-4). However, the semi-diurnal variation is evident during the period of weak solar activity. (4) Generally the predicted temperatures from both MSIS86 and VSH models are lower than the measured temperature, and this discrepancy grows as the solar activity increases. Therefore, we urge modelers to develope a new thermospheric model utilizing broader sets of measurements, especially for high solar activity.

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