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THREE-STAGED RISK EVALUATION MODEL FOR BIDDING ON INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

  • Wooyong Jung;Seung Heon Han
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.534-541
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    • 2011
  • Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

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Analysis of Recent Research Trend in the Mining Industry and Rock Engineering in North Korea (북한의 광업 및 암반공학 분야 최신 연구동향 분석)

  • Kang, Il-Seok;Park, Young-Sang;Song, Jae-Joon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2020
  • Recent research trend of North Korean mining and rock engineering in the past 10 years was analyzed by a literature review of mining and rock engineering papers published in North Korean major mining journals, 'mining engineering', 'geological and geographical science' and 'technology innovation' published in 2008-2017. Basic database was established by organizing bibliographic information and abstract data of research papers in each journal. For each journal, paper submission trend classified by research field was analyzed using the basic database. And further study was conducted to the papers which showed distinguishing methodology and result, to analyze the trend of North Korean mining and rock engineering. The literature study showed a recent trend of quantification and automation in mining and rock engineering researches in North Korea, which seems due to recent changes in North Korea's science and technology policy and deterioration of the mining conditions. The results of this study can be applied in the feasibility studies of North Korea's mineral resource development projects. Future inter-Korean technical cooperation and site survey on North Korean field can secure complement the reliability of this study.

Snow Tunnelling Project at the South Pole (남극 극지점 기지에서의 얼음 터널 프로젝트)

  • 지왕률
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2003
  • The United States Antarctic program (USAP) through its principal Support Contractor Raytheon polar Services Co. (RPSC), has recently finished a 3 years projects, almost 936m length of underground utility tunnels at Amundsen-Scott station. It accommodates the piping that conveys fresh water from current well sites, as well as waste water to repositories in abandoned wells. The under snow tunnels allow year-round access for system operations and maintenance.

EMI database analysis focusing on relationship between density and mechanical properties of sedimentary rocks

  • Burkhardt, Michael;Kim, Eunhye;Nelson, Priscilla P.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.491-498
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    • 2018
  • The Earth Mechanics Institute (EMI) was established at the Colorado School of Mines (CSM) in 1974 to develop innovations in rock mechanics research and education. During the last four decades, extensive rock mechanics research has been conducted at the EMI. Results from uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), point load index (PLI), punch penetration (PP), and many other types of tests have been recorded in a database that has been unexamined for research purposes. The EMI database includes over 20,000 tests from over 1,000 different projects including mining and underground construction, and analysis of this database to identify relationships has been started with preliminary results reported here. Overall, statistically significant correlations are identified between bulk density and mechanical strength properties through UCS, BTS, PLI, and PP testing of sedimentary, igneous, and metamorphic rocks. In this paper, bulk density is considered as a surrogate metric that reflects both mineralogy and porosity. From this analysis, sedimentary rocks show the strongest correlation between the UCS and bulk density, whereas metamorphic rocks exhibit the strongest correlation between UCS and PP. Data trends in the EMI database also reveal a linear relationship between UCS and BTS tests. For the singular case of rock coral, the database permits correlations between bulk density of the core versus the deposition depth and porosity. The EMI database will continue under analysis, and will provide additional insightful and comprehensive understanding of the variation and predictability of rock mechanical strength properties and density. This knowledge will contribute significantly toward the increasingly safe and cost-effective geostructures and construction.

A Study on the Finding of Promising Export Items in Defense industry for Export Market Expansion-Focusing on Text Mining Analysis-

  • Yeo, Seoyoon;Jeong, Jong Hee;Kim, Seong Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.27 no.10
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    • pp.235-243
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    • 2022
  • This paper aims to find promising export items for market expansion of defense export items. Germany, the UK, and France were selected as export target countries to obtain unstructured forecast data on weapons system acquisition plans for the next ten years by each country. Using the TF-IDF in text mining analysis, keywords that appeared frequently in data from three countries were derived. As a result of this paper, keywords for each country's major acquisition projects drawing. However, most of the derived keywords were related to mainstay weapon systems produced by domestic defense companies in each country. To discover promising export items from text mining, we proposed that the drawn keywords are distinguished as similar weapon systems. In addition, we assort the weapon systems that the three countries will get a plan to acquire commonly. As a result of this paper, it can be seen that the current promising export item is a weapon system related to the information system. Prioritizing overseas demands using key words can set clear market entry goals. In the case of domestic companies based on needs, it is possible to establish a specific entry strategy. Relevant organizations also can provide customized marketing support.

Pb and Zn in Peru: Supply Trend and Resource Amounts (페루의 연-아연: 공급동향 및 자원량)

  • Ale, Jorge Acosta;Santisteban, Alexander;Huanacuni, Dina;Yang, Seok-Jun;Heo, Chul-Ho
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2016
  • Until 2014, 14 million tonnes of Pb (metal based) and 41 million tonnes of Zn (metal based) were produced in Peru. Representative two Pb-Zn metallogenic belts were known in Peru. They are lower Cretaceous-Paleocene VMS Cu-Zn-Au metallogenic belt and Miocene epithermal, skarn, replacement & polymetallic vein metallogenic belt. If four new mining projects were launched and additional three mining projects were prepared until 2017, it seems possible to produce 0.34 million tonnes of Pb and 1.5 million tonnes of Zn additionally. In Pb-Zn metallogenic belt in Peru, potential Zn amounts range from 9 to 6000 million tonnes with 0.1 to 14% Zn and potential Pb amounts range from 5 to 2800 million tonnes with 0.04 to 5.3% Pb.

Exploring the Knowledge Structure of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle in National R&D Projects for the Hydrogen Economy (수소 경제를 위한 국가R&D과제에서 연료전지전기차의 지식구조 탐색)

  • Choi, Jung Woo;Lee, Ji Yeon;Lee, Byeong-Hee;Kim, Tae-Hyun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.306-317
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    • 2021
  • With a global shift from carbon economy towards hydrogen economy, leading countries such as the U.S., Europe, China, and Japan are focusing their research capabilities on hydrogen research and development(R&D) by announcing various hydrogen economy policies. South Korea also has been following this global trend by announcing hydrogen economy roadmap in January 2019 and legislating hydrogen economy related law. In this paper, we tried to figure out the national R&D trend of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle(FCEV) and its knowledge structure by using recent 10-year project data of National Technology and Information Service(NTIS). We collected 1,479 FCEV-related projects and conducted text mining and network analysis. According to the analysis, FCEV-related R&D has been actively carried out over the entire process of hydrogen production, transport, storage, and utilization. Furthermore, the paper provides insights into the government's policy agenda building and market strategy on the hydrogen economy.

Optimization study on roof break direction of gob-side entry retaining by roof break and filling in thick-layer soft rock layer

  • Yang, Dang-Wei;Ma, Zhan-Guo;Qi, Fu-Zhou;Gong, Peng;Liu, Dao-Ping;Zhao, Guo-Zhen;Zhang, Ray Ruichong
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.195-215
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    • 2017
  • This paper proposes gob-side entry retaining by roof break and filling in thick-layer soft rock conditions based on the thick-layer soft rock roof strata migration law and the demand for non-pillar gob-side entry retaining projects. The functional expressions of main roof subsidence are derived for three break roof direction conditions: lateral deflection toward the roadway, lateral deflection toward the gob and vertically to the roof. These are derived according to the load-bearing boundary conditions of the main roadway roof stratum. It is concluded that the break roof angle is an important factor influencing the stability of gob-side entry retaining surrounding rock. This paper studies the stress distribution characteristics and plastic damage scope of gob-side entry retaining integrated coal seams, as well as the roof strata migration law and the supporting stability of caving structure filled on the break roof layer at the break roof angles of $-5^{\circ}$, $0^{\circ}$, $5^{\circ}$, $10^{\circ}$ and $15^{\circ}$ are studied. The simulation results of numerical analysis indicate that, the stress concentration and plastic damage scope to the sides of gob-side entry retaining integrated coal at the break roof angle of $5^{\circ}$ are reduced and shearing stress concentration of the caving filling body has been eliminated. The disturbance of coal mining to the roadway roof and loss of carrying capacity are mitigated. Field tests have been carried out on air-return roadway 5203 with the break roof angle of $5^{\circ}$. The monitoring indicates that the break roof filling section and compaction section are located at 0-45 m and 45-75 m behind the working face, respectively. The section from 75-100 m tends to be stable.

Analysis of the crack propagation rules and regional damage characteristics of rock specimens

  • Li, Yangyang;Xu, Yadong;Zhang, Shichuan;Fan, Jing;Du, Guobin;Su, Lu;Fu, Guangsheng
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.215-226
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    • 2021
  • To study the evolution mechanism of cracks in rocks with multiple defects, rock-like samples with multiple defects, such as strip-shaped through-going cracks and cavity groups, are used, and the crack propagation law and changes in AE (acoustic emission) and strain of cavity groups under different inclination angles are studied. According to the test results, an increase in the cavity group inclination angle can facilitate the initial damage degree of the rock and weaken the crack initiation stress; the initial crack initiation direction is approximately 90°, and the extension angle is approximately 75~90° from the strip-shaped through-going cracks; thus, the relationship between crack development and cavity group initiation strengthens. The specific performance is as follows: when the initiation angle is 30°, the cracks between the cavities in the cavity group develop relatively independently along the parallel direction of the external load; when the angle is 75°, the cracks between the cavities in the cavity group can interpenetrate, and slip can occur along the inclination of the cavity group under the action of the shear mechanism rupture. With the increase in the inclination angle of the cavity group, the AE energy fluctuation frequency at the peak stress increases, and the stress drop is obvious. The larger the cavity group inclination angle is, the more obvious the energy accumulation and the more severe the rock damage; when the cavity group angle is 30° or 75°, the peak strain of the local area below the strip-shaped through-going fracture plane is approximately three times that when the cavity group angle is 45° and 60°, indicating that cracks are easily generated in the local area monitored by the strain gauge at this angle, and the further development of the cracks weakens the strength of the rock, thereby increasing the probability of major engineering quality damage. The research results will have important reference value for hazard prevention in underground engineering projects through rock with natural and artificial defects, including tunnels and air-raid shelters.

Evaluation on R&D Progress for Manganese Nodule Development and Its Prospects (심해저 망간단괴 개발사업의 국제기술 동향 분석 및 향후 개발 전망)

  • Park, Se-Hun;Park, Seong-Wook;Kang, Gil-Mo
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.477-490
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    • 2005
  • The development of manganese nodule mining technology is very important in order to secure a long-term and stable supply of rare strategic metals. In the twenty years following the R&D activities with the international consortia in the 1970s, studies on mining technologies have been carried out by several national projects in Korea. The current metal prices such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and manganese have been drastically changed since 2002. Rapid economic growth of Asian countries, especially China, have induced the situation. And the possibility of copper shortage is looming just around the comer. Because of the imbalance between production and consumption, copper is fundamentally the most threatened metal in the future in terms of potential metal shortage. Manganese nodules contain a considerable percentage of copper as the future metal resource. Therefore, it is necessary to concentrate our effects on developing these resources. This paper introduces our evaluation of R&D progress for the development of manganese nodules. The issue and role of manganese nodules during the difficult period of a potential future metal shortage period is discussed and its prospect outlined. Also, this paper tried to emphasize the necessity of continuous R&D efforts for the commercial development of such mineral resources.