• 한국기후변화학회지
• /
• 제7권2호
• /
• pp.193-203
• /
• 2016

The importance of forecasting agricultural production is receiving attention while climate change is accelerating. This study suggested three types of crop yield forecasting model for major vegetable crops by using downscaled meteorological information of main production area on farmland level, which identified as limitation from previous studies. First, this study conducted correlation analysis with seven types of farm level downscaled meteorological informations and reported crop yield of main production area. After, we selected three types of meteorological factors which showed the highest relation with each crop species and regions. Parameters were deducted from meterological factor with high correlation but crop species number was neglected. After, crop yield of each crops was estimated by using the three suggested types of models. Chinese cabbage showed high accuracy in overall, while the accuracy of daikon and onion was quiet revised by neglecting the outlier. Chili and garlic showed differences by region, but Kyungbuk chili and Chungnam, Kyungsang garlic appeared significant accuracy. We also selected key meteorological factor of each crops which has the highest relation with crop yield. If the factor had significant relation with the quantity, it explains better about the variations of key meteorological factor. This study will contribute to establishing the methodology of future studies by estimating the crop yield of different species by using farmland meterological information and relatively simplify multiple linear regression models.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제9권4호
• /
• pp.295-302
• /
• 2000

This study was conducted to investigate the characteristics of surface ozone concentration and occurrence of high ozone concentration using hourly ozone, nitrogen dioxide and meteorological data for 1997~1998 in Pusan coastal area. Monthly mean ozone concentration was the highest at Dongsamdong in Spring(35.4ppb), at Kwangbokdong in Fall(25.1ppb) and the lowest Dongsamdong(22.2ppb) and Kwangbokdong(16.0ppb) in Winter. Relative standard deviation indicating clearness of observation site was 0.42 at Dongsamdong and 0.49 at Kwangbokdong that is similar to urban area. The diurnal variation of ozone concentration of Dongsamdong and Kwangbokdong showed maximum at 1500~1600LST and minimum 0700~0800LST that typical pattern of ozone concentration. In ozone episode period(Sept. 10~15, 1998), diurnal change of ozone concentration was very high, and ozone concentration was related to meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud amount and radiation on a horizontal surface. During the episode days peak ozone concentrations are much higher than the normal values, wind speeds are always lower, and solar radiation is high with the exception of the September episode.

• 한국환경과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국환경과학회 2003년도 International Symposium on Clean Environment
• /
• pp.37-42
• /
• 2003

We have analyzed the characteristics of the sea surface winds and wind waves near the Korean marginal seas on the basis of prediction results of the sea surface winds from MM5/KMA model, which is being used for the operation system at the Korea Meteorological observation buoy data to verify the model results during Typhoon events. The correlation coefficients between the models and observation data reach up to about 95％, supporting that these models satisfactorily simulate the sea surface winds and wave heights even at the coastal regions. Based on these verification results, we have carried out numerical experiments about the wave modulation. When there exist an opposite strong current for the propagation direction of the waves or wind direction, wave height and length gets higher and shorter, and vice versa. It is proved that these modulations of wave parameters are well generated when wind speed is relatively week.

• 자원환경지질
• /
• 제34권6호
• /
• pp.573-581
• /
• 2001

110 earthquake parameters (origin time, epicentral location and magnitude) were determined from 533 event records between 1905 and 1942 using data mainly from the "Annual Report of the Meteorological Observatory of the Government General of Tyosen" We adopted epicentral coordinates from the original reports for 34 events and from the Japanese Central Meteorological Observatory far another .34 events. We determined epicenters for 37 events using arrival time information from the reports. We adopted 4 epicenters from the International Seismological Summary and I from the Chinese bulletin. To determine the magnitude, we applied Tsuboi (1954) formula which is currently employed by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 94 events. For 16 events, we determined magnitude from the reef)reed felt epicentral areal using the correlation equation between known magnitude and felt area.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.129-139
• /
• 2009

Development of an artificial neural network model was presented to predict the daily maximum $SO_2$ concentration in the urban-industrial area of Ulsan. The network model was trained during April through September for 2000-2005 using $SO_2$ potential parameters estimated from meteorological and air quality data which are closely related to daily maximum $SO_2$ concentrations. Meteorological data were obtained from regional modeling results, upper air soundings and surface field measurements and were then used to create the $SO_2$ potential parameters such as synoptic conditions, mixing heights, atmospheric stabilities, and surface conditions. In particular, two-stage clustering techniques were used to identify potential index representing major synoptic conditions associated with high $SO_2$ concentration. Two neural network models were developed and tested in different conditions for prediction: the first model was set up to predict daily maximum $SO_2$ at 5 PM on the previous day, and the second was 10 AM for a given forecast day using an additional potential factors related with urban emissions in the early morning. The results showed that the developed models can predict the daily maximum $SO_2$ concentrations with good simulation accuracy of 87% and 96% for the first and second model. respectively, but the limitation of predictive capability was found at a higher or lower concentrations. The increased accuracy for the second model demonstrates that improvements can be made by utilizing more recent air quality data for initialization of the model.

• KIEAE Journal
• /
• 제12권6호
• /
• pp.93-98
• /
• 2012

The concerns on high ozone concentration phenomenon is significantly growing in Seoul metropolitan area including the industry complex area, like Shiwha Banwol area. The aims of this research is the analysis of relationship between high concentrations of $O_3$ and solar radiation parameters in atmosphere. The understanding of the effects of solar radiation intensity, humidity, high air temperature on ozone concentration in a day is very useful to provide a direction for reducing of the high ozone concentration to a local government or a metropolitan government. The correlation analysis between maximum ozone concentration and various meteorological parameters in 2009 - 2011 carried out using IBM's SPSS program. The results showed that the mean correlations coefficient (R) between daily Ozone maximum and solar radiation resulted R = 0.64 during 2011. May - September in 10 air pollution stations. In case of correlations between daily ozone maximum and relative humidity showed negative correlation R = -0.61. The correlation analysis with mean air temperature during 1-3 PM resulted R = 0.29. This low correlation coefficient could be corrected by using of categorized data of ozone concentration. The daily maximum ozone concentration is more dependent on peak solar radiation and high air temperature during 1-3 PM than its simple daily maximum values. The results of this research would be used to develop the high ozone alert system around Seoul metropolitan area. This correlation analysis could be partially integrated to prediction of ozone peak concentration in connection with other methods like classification and regression tree(CART).

• Coupled systems mechanics
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.107-119
• /
• 2022

The aim of the work presented in this paper is development of numerical model for prediction of temperature distribution in pavement according to the measured meteorological parameters, with introduction of non-linear heat transfer coefficient which is a function of temerature difference between the air and the pavement. Developed model calculates heat radiated from the pavement back in the air, which is an important part of the heat trasfer process in the open air surfaces. Temperature of the pavement surface, heat radiation together with many meteorological parameters were measured in series during two years in order to validate the model and calibrate model parameters. Special finite element method for temperature heat transfer towards the soil together with the time integration scheme are used to solve the governing equation. It is proved that non-linear heat transfer coefficient, which is a function of time and temperature difference between the air and the pavement, is required to decribe this phenomena. Proposed model includes heat tranfer coefficient callibration for specific climate region, through the iterative inverse procedure.

• 한국지구과학회지
• /
• 제22권1호
• /
• pp.65-74
• /
• 2001

선관측에 기초한 DOAS와 같은 광투과 분석방식의 계측능과 기상인자와의 관계를 평가하기 위해, 서울시의 반포지역을 중심으로 약 14개월(1999. 6${\sim}$2000. 8) 동안 확보된 3대 기준성 오염물질(SO$_2$, NO$_2$, O$_3$)과 주변 환경변수와의 관계를 여러 가지 통계적 방식으로 분석하였다. 본 연구 결과에 의하면, DOAS의 계측능은 오염물질간 또는 기상인자간에서도 비교적 뚜렷한 경향성을 갖는 것이 확인되었다. 그리고 이러한 경향성은 계절과 같은 시간적 요인에 따라복잡하게 변화할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 SO$_2$나 NO$_2$,와 같은 항목의 경우, 여러 가지 요인의 차이에도 불구하고 계측능이 일정한 수준을 유지할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 O$_3$의 경우, 기상조건의 변화에 상대적으로 민감한 변화를 보였다. 기상인자들간의 관계를 비교한 결과, 풍향, 풍속, 일사량과 같은 요인들이 성능에 민감한 영향력을 행사할 가능성이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 두 기기간의 농도차이를 조절하는 요인들을 상관분석을 통해 비교한 결과, 풍속, 일사량, 기온 등의 요인이 증가할수록 계측기간의 농도차가 줄어들었다. 반대로 오염물질의 농도가 증가하는 방향으로 흐를 경우, 계측기간의 오차는 상대적으로 증폭되는 방향으로 변화하였다. 따라서 DOAS로부터 계측된 자료를 해석하기 위해서는 기상인자를 포함하는 주변 환경인자의 변화에 대한 해석을 동시에 수행하는 것이 중요할 것으로 사료된다.

• 대기
• /
• 제18권4호
• /
• pp.287-297
• /
• 2008

The vertical profiles and optical properties of Asian dust are investigated using ground-based measurements from 1998 to 2002. Vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficient are evaluated using MPL (Micro Pulse Lidar) data. Optical parameters such as aerosol optical thickness ($\tau$), ${\AA}ngstr\ddot{o}m$ exponent ($\alpha$), single scattering albedo ($\omega$), refractive index, and volume size distribution are analyzed with sun/sky radiometer data for the same period. We can separate aerosol vertical profiles into three categories. First category named as 'Asian dust case', which aerosol extinction coefficient is larger than $0.15km^{-1}$ and dust layer exists from surface up to 3-4km. Second category named as 'Elevated aerosol case', which aerosol layer exists between 2 and 6km with 1-2.5km thickness, and extinction coefficient is smaller than $0.15km^{-1}$. Third category named as 'Clear sky case', which aerosol extinction coefficient appears smaller than $0.15km^{-1}$. and shows that diurnal variation of background aerosol in urban area. While optical parameters for first category indicate that $\tau$ and $\alpha$ are $0.63{\pm}0.14$, $0.48{\pm}0.19$, respectively. Also, aerosol volume concentration is increased for range of 1 and $4{\mu}m$, in coarse mode. Optical parameters for second category can be separated into two different types. Optical properties of first type are very close to Asian dust cases. Also, dust reports of source region and backward trajectory analyses assure that these type is much related with Asian dust event. However, optical properties of the other type are similar to those of urban aerosol. For clear sky case, $\tau$ is relatively smaller and $\alpha$ is larger compare with other cases. Each case shows distinct characteristics in aerosol optical parameters.

• 대기
• /
• 제17권2호
• /
• pp.135-145
• /
• 2007

We developed a simple regression model for predicting the intesity change (central pressure) of major tropical cyclones (TCs) for 24 hours after landfall using 51 TC cases which landed over the Korean Peninsula for 1951-2004. Clusters 1 and 4 with a relatively strong intensity of TC after landfall classified by Choi and Kim (2007) are used to develop a statistical model for the prediction of TC intensity change. Predicting parameters (falling constants) in the regression models $(P_t=P_0+alnt)$ are 6.46 and 10.11 for clusters 1 and 4, respectively. It might be mentioned that there is some feasibility in employing a simple regression model developed in this study for TC intensity change after landfall for operational purpose of TC forecasting compared with RSMC-Tokyo best-track in both TC cases of Clusters 1 and 4 and Ewiniar (0603) case, but the room for improvement of model still remains for further study.