• 제목/요약/키워드: maximum-likelihood

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An overview of Hawkes processes and their applications (혹스 과정의 개요 및 응용)

  • Mijeong Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • 제36권4호
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    • pp.309-322
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    • 2023
  • The Hawkes process is a point process with self-exciting characteristics. It has been mainly used to describe seismic phenomena in which aftershocks occur due to the main earthquake. Recently, it has been used to explain various phenomena with self-exciting properties, such as the spread of infectious diseases and the spread of news on SNS. The Hawkes process can be flexibly modified according to the characteristics of events by using various types of excitation functions. Since it is difficult to implement a maximum likelihood estimator numerically, estimation methods have been improved until recently. In this paper, the conditional intensity function and excitation function are explained to describe the Hawkes process. Then, existing examples of Hawkes processes used in seismic, epidemiological, criminal, and financial fields are described and estimation methods are introduced. I analyze earthquakes that occurred in gyeongsang-do, Korea from November 2017 to December 2022, using R package ETAS.

The development of a social support scale for nursing students in clinical practice (임상 실습을 경험한 간호대학생의 사회적 지지 측정 도구 개발)

  • Park, Kawon;Park, Sunghee
    • The Journal of Korean Academic Society of Nursing Education
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This methodological study developed a scale that reflects the social support characteristics of nursing students who have experienced clinical practice and verified their reliability and validity. Methods: The 37 initial items of the scale were derived based on the results of a previous study that analyzed the concept of nursing students' social support. The initial items were revised through content validity verification, and 29 preliminary items were finally selected. Data were collected from 220 students enrolled in a nursing department in Jeollabuk-do, who had clinical practice experience, and 205 surveys were used for the final analysis. The data collection period was from March 11 to April 26, 2022. An exploratory factor analysis was performed using maximum likelihood factor extraction and varimax rotation. Results: The social support scale for nursing students who have experienced clinical practice consisted of a total of three sub-factors and 17 items. The three sub-factors were 'support from family and friends' (eight items), 'support from school, professors, and clinical instructors' (seven items) and 'support from department seniors' (two items). The reliability of the developed scale was found to be high, with a Cronbach's alpha of .93. As a result of verifying the criterion validity of the developed scale, the correlation between the criterion tool and the scale developed in this study was statistically significant. Conclusion: The significance of this study is that it developed a scale to measure social support for the first time among nursing students in Korea.

The Comparative Study of Software Optimal Release Time for the Distribution Based on Shape parameter (형상모수에 근거한 소프트웨어 최적방출시기에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Shin, Hyun-Cheul;Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • 제14권8호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, make a study decision problem called an optimal release policies after testing a software system in development phase and transfer it to the user. When correcting or modifying the software, because of the possibility of introducing new faults when correcting or modifying the software, infinite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process models presented and propose an optimal release policies of the life distribution applied fixed shape parameter distribution which can capture the increasing/decreasing nature of the failure occurrence rate per fault. In this paper, discuss optimal software release policies which minimize a total average software cost of development and maintenance under the constraint of satisfying a software reliability requirement. In a numerical example, after trend test applied and estimated the parameters using maximum likelihood estimation of inter-failure time data, make out estimating software optimal release time

Hierarchical Flow-Based Anomaly Detection Model for Motor Gearbox Defect Detection

  • Younghwa Lee;Il-Sik Chang;Suseong Oh;Youngjin Nam;Youngteuk Chae;Geonyoung Choi;Gooman Park
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제17권6호
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    • pp.1516-1529
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, a motor gearbox fault-detection system based on a hierarchical flow-based model is proposed. The proposed system is used for the anomaly detection of a motion sound-based actuator module. The proposed flow-based model, which is a generative model, learns by directly modeling a data distribution function. As the objective function is the maximum likelihood value of the input data, the training is stable and simple to use for anomaly detection. The operation sound of a car's side-view mirror motor is converted into a Mel-spectrogram image, consisting of a folding signal and an unfolding signal, and used as training data in this experiment. The proposed system is composed of an encoder and a decoder. The data extracted from the layer of the pretrained feature extractor are used as the decoder input data in the encoder. This information is used in the decoder by performing an interlayer cross-scale convolution operation. The experimental results indicate that the context information of various dimensions extracted from the interlayer hierarchical data improves the defect detection accuracy. This paper is notable because it uses acoustic data and a normalizing flow model to detect outliers based on the features of experimental data.

A phylogenetic analysis of the Korean endemic species Paraphlomis koreana (Lamiaceae) inferred from nuclear and plastid DNA sequences

  • Eun-Kyeong HAN;Jung-Hyun KIM;Jin-Seok KIM;Chang Woo HYUN;Dong Chan SON;Gyu Young CHUNG;Amarsanaa GANTSETSEG;Jung-Hyun LEE;In-Su CHOI
    • Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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    • 제53권2호
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    • pp.157-165
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    • 2023
  • Paraphlomis koreana (Lamiaceae) was newly named and added to Korean flora in 2014. Paraphlomis belongs to the tribe Paraphlomideae, along with Ajugoides and Matsumurella. However, a recent study has suggested that P. koreana is morphologically similar to Matsumurella chinensis, making them difficult to distinguish from each other. Therefore, we aimed to examine the phylogenetic placement of P. koreana within the tribe and compare its genetic relationship with M. chinensis. We sequenced an additional complete plastid genome for an individual of P. koreana and generated sequences of nuclear ribosomal (nr) DNA regions of internal and external transcribed spacers (ITS and ETS) for two individuals of P. koreana. Maximum likelihood analyses based on two nrDNA regions (ITS and ETS) and four plastid DNA markers (rpl16 intron, rpl32-trnL, rps16 intron, and trnL-F) covering 13 Paraphlomis species and M. chinensis were conducted. Phylogenetic analyses concordantly supported that P. koreana forms a monophyletic group with M. chinensis. Moreover, our study revealed that P. koreana includes nrDNA sequences of M. chinensis as minor intra-individual variants, suggesting that the genetic divergence between the two taxa is incomplete and may represent intraspecific variation rather than distinct species. In conclusion, our findings suggest that the independent species status of P. koreana within Paraphlomis should be reconsidered.

Comparative Analysis on the Attributes of NHPP Software Development Cost Model Applying Gamma Family Distribution (감마족 분포을 적용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 개발비용 모형의 속성에 관한 비교 분석)

  • Hyo-Jeong Bae
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • 제18권5호
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    • pp.867-876
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    • 2023
  • In this study, the attributes of the NHPP software development cost model applying the Gamma family distribution (Erlang, Log-Logistic, Rayleigh) were newly analyzed, and after comparing with the Goel-Okumoto basic model to verify the properties of the model, the optimal model was also presented based on this. To analyze software reliability, failure time data that occurred randomly during system operation was used, and the calculation of the parameters was solved using the maximum likelihood estimation. As a result of comprehensive evaluation through various attribute analysis (mean value function, development cost, optimal release time), it was confirmed that the Rayleigh model had the best performance. Through this study, the attributes of the software development cost model applying the Gamma family distribution, which has no previous research case, were newly identified. Also, basic design data could also be presented so that developers can efficiently utilize this research data at an early stage.

Comparative Analysis of Supervised and Phenology-Based Approaches for Crop Mapping: A Case Study in South Korea

  • Ehsan Rahimi;Chuleui Jung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • 제40권2호
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    • pp.179-190
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to compare supervised classification methods with phenology-based approaches, specifically pixel-based and segment-based methods, for accurate crop mapping in agricultural landscapes. We utilized Sentinel-2A imagery, which provides multispectral data for accurate crop mapping. 31 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images were calculated from the Sentinel-2A data. Next, we employed phenology-based approaches to extract valuable information from the NDVI time series. A set of 10 phenology metrics was extracted from the NDVI data. For the supervised classification, we employed the maximum likelihood (MaxLike) algorithm. For the phenology-based approaches, we implemented both pixel-based and segment-based methods. The results indicate that phenology-based approaches outperformed the MaxLike algorithm in regions with frequent rainfall and cloudy conditions. The segment-based phenology approach demonstrated the highest kappa coefficient of 0.85, indicating a high level of agreement with the ground truth data. The pixel-based phenology approach also achieved a commendable kappa coefficient of 0.81, indicating its effectiveness in accurately classifying the crop types. On the other hand, the supervised classification method (MaxLike) yielded a lower kappa coefficient of 0.74. Our study suggests that segment-based phenology mapping is a suitable approach for regions like South Korea, where continuous cloud-free satellite images are scarce. However, establishing precise classification thresholds remains challenging due to the lack of adequately sampled NDVI data. Despite this limitation, the phenology-based approach demonstrates its potential in crop classification, particularly in regions with varying weather patterns.

Contrast-Enhanced CT and Ultrasonography Features of Intracholecystic Papillary Neoplasm with or without associated Invasive Carcinoma

  • Jae Hyun Kim;Jung Hoon Kim;Hyo-Jin Kang;Jae Seok Bae
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2023
  • Objective: To assess the contrast-enhanced CT and ultrasonography (US) findings of intracholecystic papillary neoplasm (ICPN) and determine the imaging features predicting ICPN associated with invasive carcinoma (ICPN-IC). Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, we enrolled 119 consecutive patients, including 60 male and 59 female, with a mean age ± standard deviation of 63.3 ± 12.1 years, who had pathologically confirmed ICPN (low-grade dysplasia [DP] = 34, high-grade DP = 35, IC = 50) and underwent preoperative CT or US. Two radiologists independently assessed the CT and US findings, focusing on wall and polypoid lesion characteristics. The likelihood of ICPN-IC was graded on a 5-point scale. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify significant predictors of ICPN-IC separately for wall and polypoid lesion findings. The performances of CT and US in distinguishing ICPN-IC from ICPN with DP (ICPN-DP) was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: For wall characteristics, the maximum wall thickness (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-1.9) and mucosal discontinuity (aOR = 5.6; 95% CI: 1.3-23.4) on CT were independently associated with ICPN-IC. Among 119 ICPNs, 110 (92.4%) showed polypoid lesions. Regarding polypoid lesion findings, multiplicity (aOR = 4.0; 95% CI: 1.6-10.4), lesion base wall thickening (aOR = 6.0; 95% CI: 2.3-15.8) on CT, and polyp size (aOR = 1.1; 95% CI: 1.0-1.2) on US were independently associated with ICPN-IC. CT showed a higher diagnostic performance than US in predicting ICPN-IC (AUC = 0.793 vs. 0.676; p = 0.002). Conclusion: ICPN showed polypoid lesions and/or wall thickening on CT or US. A thick wall, multiplicity, presence of wall thickening in the polypoid lesion base, and large polyp size are imaging findings independently associated with invasive cancer and may be useful for differentiating ICPN-IC from ICPN-DP.

Diversity and distribution of goby-fry fish in Tomini Bay, Gorontalo, Indonesia

  • Femy M. Sahami;Sri Nuryatin Hamzah;Philippe Keith;Sitty Ainsyah Habibie
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.294-305
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    • 2024
  • Tomini Bay in Gorontalo offers significant potential for amphidromous goby-fry, a group of fish found in at least five estuaries in the area, namely Bone-Bolango, Paguyaman, Bilungala, Tombulilato, and Taludaa Estuaries. Preliminary results were limited to only two locations in estuarine waters, namely the Bone-Bolango and Paguyaman rivers. Further exploration of goby-fry species in various locations within Tomini Bay is essential to enhance knowledge about the abundance and aid conservation efforts. Therefore, this study identified the goby-fry species and created their distribution map in the waters of Tomini Bay Gorontalo. The samples used were obtained from daily catches of fishermen in the five estuaries during the recruitment period from February to September 2022. These samples were categorized based on their morphological similarities and specific melanophore patterns. Distinct groups with different melanophore patterns from those previously reported were identified as newly recorded species, photographed, and described in terms of their morphology. Furthermore, two specimens from each newly recorded species underwent molecular identification using the cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI) gene for DNA amplification and were analyzed through the Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST) method. The phylogenetic tree was constructed using the Maximum Likelihood Method. The results showed the existence of nongoby-fry species caught together with goby fry school. A total of 75,881 goby-fry and 1,687 nongoby-fry were successfully collected. Among the goby-fry species, 13 were identified, including three new records, namely Eleotris fusca (Forster, 1801), Sicyopterus microcephalus (Bleeker, 1855), and Sicyopus zosterophorus (Bleeker, 1856). This study also documented the existence of nongoby-fry species, namely Anguilla celebesensis (Kaup, 1856), Moringua microchir (Bleeker, 1853), and Microphis leiaspis (Bleeker, 1854). It significantly contributed to the understanding of fish biodiversity in Tomini Bay.

Site specific fragility modification factor for mid-rise RC buildings based on plastic energy dissipation

  • Merin Mathews;B.R. Jayalekshmi;Katta Venkataramana
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.331-344
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    • 2024
  • The performance of reinforced concrete buildings subjected to earthquake excitations depends on the structural behaviour of the superstructure as well as the type of foundation and the properties of soil on which the structure is founded. The consideration of the effects due to the interaction between the structure and soil- foundation alters the seismic response of reinforced concrete buildings subjected to earthquake motion. Evaluation of the structural response of buildings for quantitative assessment of the seismic fragility has been a demanding problem for the engineers. Present research deals with development of fragility curve for building specific vulnerability assessment based on different damage parameters considering the effect of soil-structure interaction. Incremental Dynamic Analysis of fixed base and flexible base RC building models founded on different soil conditions was conducted using finite element software. Three sets of fragility curves were developed with maximum roof displacement, inter storey drift and plastic energy dissipated as engineering demand parameters. The results indicated an increase in the likelihood of exceeding various damage limits by 10-40% for flexible base condition with soft soil profiles. Fragility curve based on energy dissipated showed a higher probability of exceedance for collapse prevention damage limit whereas for lower damage states, conventional methods showed higher probability of exceedance. With plastic energy dissipated as engineering demand parameter, it is possible to track down the intensity of earthquake at which the plastic deformation starts, thereby providing an accurate vulnerability assessment of the structure. Fragility modification factors that enable the transformation of existing fragility curves to account for Soil-Structure Interaction effects based on different damage measures are proposed for different soil conditions to facilitate a congenial vulnerability assessment for buildings with flexible base conditions.