• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.485-500
• /
• 1999

The systematic forecast of interest rates with liberalization was on the rise to important problems in the money market. Liberalization and globalization of the money market produced a seriously change as a compatition among the money market. Profits of an organ of monetary circulation are, also, definitively influenced by a change of interest rates. Hence most of the organ of monetary circulation studied to a scientific and systematic analysis for deterministic factors which have an effect on interest rates and progress development of a forecasting model of interest rates. In this paper, we develope the forecasting system which has highly forecasting performance based on a number of time series models for interest rates and discuss practical use of this system.

• ETRI Journal
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.87-106
• /
• 1996

This paper proposes a new model as a framework for forecasting demand and technological substitution, which can accommodate different patterns of technological change. This model, which we named, "Adaptive Diffusion Model", is formalized from a conceptual framework that incorporates several underlying factors determining the market demand for technological products. The formulation of this model is given in terms of a period analysis to improve its explanatory power for dynamic processes in the real world, and is described as a continuous form which approximates a discrete derivation of the model. In order to illustrate the applicability and generality of this model, time-series data of the diffusion rates for some typical products in electronics and telecommunications market have been empirically tested. The results show that the model has higher explanatory power than any other existing model for all the products tested in our study. It has been found that this model can provide a framework which is sufficiently robust in forecasting demand and innovation diffusion for various technological products.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• v.21 no.4_spc
• /
• pp.403-414
• /
• 2014

Forecasting technology in economic activity is a quite intricate procedure so researchers should grasp the point of the data to use. Diffusion models have been widely used for forecasting market demand and measuring the degree of technology diffusion. However, there is a question that a model, explaining a certain market with goodness of fit, always shows good performance with markets of different conditions. The primary aim of this paper is to explore diffusion models which are frequently used by researchers, and to help readers better understanding on those models. In this study, Logistic, Gompertz and Bass models are used for forecasting Global Wireline Subscribers and the performance of models is measured by Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Logistic model shows better MAPE than the other two. A possible extension of this study may verify which model reflects characteristics of industry better.

• ETRI Journal
• /
• v.41 no.2
• /
• pp.224-234
• /
• 2019

This paper proposes a new spectrum forecasting (SF) model to estimate the spectrum demands for future mobile broadband (MBB) services. The model requires five main input metrics, that is, the current available spectrum, site number growth, mobile data traffic growth, average network utilization, and spectrum efficiency growth. Using the proposed SF model, the future MBB spectrum demand for Malaysia in 2020 is forecasted based on the input market data of four major mobile telecommunication operators represented by A-D, which account for approximately 95% of the local mobile market share. Statistical data to generate the five input metrics were obtained from prominent agencies, such as the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission, OpenSignal, Analysys Mason, GSMA, and Huawei. Our forecasting results indicate that by 2020, Malaysia would require approximately 307 MHz of additional spectrum to fulfill the enormous increase in mobile broadband data demands.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.26 no.7
• /
• pp.127-132
• /
• 2021

This paper applies a machine learning model to forecasting freight rates in dry bulk and tanker markets with wavelet decomposition and empirical mode decomposition because they can refect both information scattered in the time and frequency domain. The decomposition with wavelet is outperformed for the dry bulk market, and EMD is the more proper model in the tanker market. This result provides market players with a practical short-term forecasting method. This study contributes to expanding a variety of predictive methodologies for one of the highly volatile markets. Furthermore, the proposed model is expected to improve the quality of decision-making in spot freight trading, which is the most frequent transaction in the shipping industry.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.7
• /
• pp.11-19
• /
• 2021

The study aims to investigate the impact of seasonality in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' share market during the month of Ramadan. It helps in finding the opportunities for stock market investors to earn abnormal (returns) gain by investing during Ramadan in GCC stock markets. This study uses stock returns data of GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Dubai, and UAE) from January 2004 to November 2019. Stock prices indexes of GCC stock markets have been obtained from Datastream. The ARCH-GARCH model is used to study the impact of the Ramadan month on the return and volatility of the stock market in GCC countries. The results showed that the Ramadan month has a significant impact on share market prices in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, Ramadan has an insignificant impact on share market prices in Bahrain and Oman. The study found no evidence of serial correlational between residuals in Kuwait; meaning that stock return was not dependent on the prior stock returns in Kuwait, therefore, we cannot go for forecasting. The ARCH-LM test statistic for Qatar does not fulfill the requirement of a good regression model; therefore, we cannot go for forecasting or testing the hypothesis of Qatar.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.10 no.5
• /
• pp.113-123
• /
• 2011

Recently, the global warming problem has arised around world, many nations has set up a various regulations for decreasing $CO_2$. In particular, $CO_2$ emissions reduction effect is very powerful in transport part, so there is a rising interest about development of green car, or electric vehicle in auto industry. For this reason, it is important to make a strategy for charging infra and forcast electric power demand, but it hasn't introduced about demand forecasting electric vehicle. Thus, this paper presents a demand forecasting for electric vehicles using choice based multigeneration diffusion model. In this paper, it estimates innovation coefficient, immitation coefficient in Bass model by using hybrid car market data and forecast electric vehicle market by year using potential demand market through SP(Stated Preference) experiment. Also, It facilitates more accurate demand forecasting electric vehicle market refelcting multigeneration diffusion model in accordance with attribute progress in development of electric vehicle. Through demand forecasting methodology in this paper, it can be utilized power supply and building a charging infra in the future.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.89-104
• /
• 2008

Growth curves including Bass, Logistic and Gompertz functions are widely used in forecasting the market demand. Nonlinear least square method is often adopted for estimating the model parameters but it is difficult to set up the starting value for each parameter. If a wrong starting point is selected, the result may lead to erroneous forecasts. This paper proposes a method of selecting starting values for model parameters in estimating some growth curves by nonlinear least square method through grid search and transformation into linear regression model. Resealing the market data using the national economic index makes it possible to figure out the range of parameters and to utilize the grid search method. Application to some real data is also included, where the performance of our method is demonstrated.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.57 no.8
• /
• pp.1342-1348
• /
• 2008

One important objective of the electricity market is to decrease the price by ensuring stability in the market operation. Interconnected to this is another objective; namely, to realize sustainable consumption of electricity by equitably distributing the effects and benefits of participating in the market among all participants of the industry. One method that can help achieve these objectives is the ^{(R)}$demand-response program, - which allows for active adjustment of the loadage from the demand side in response to the price. The demand-response program requires a customer baseline load (CBL), a criterion of calculating the success of decreases in demand. This study was conducted in order to calculate undistorted CBL by analyzing the correlations between such external or seasonal factors as temperature, humidity, and discomfort indices and the amounts of electricity consumed. The method and findings of this study are accordingly explicated.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.20 no.4
• /
• pp.1-23
• /
• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.