• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.135-163
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• 2013

This study aims to analyze the feedback loops and policy simulation of price fluctuation of Korean Cattle. The Korean Cattle market shows the 'Cycle of Beef' since 1970. In general, the market for agricultural commodities exhibit repeated cycles of prices and production. Why Beef products market in Korea shows the fluctuation of cattle and beef price repeatedly for forty years? To find an answer, this paper explores the feedback structure of the dynamics of the beef market by the systems thinking and build a stock-flow diagram model for the simulation of future behavior of the market sector of the Cattle. The dynamic simulation model was developed to identify and analyze the cyclical behavior among many variables, which is the number of cattle (calves, cow, etc.), the price of cattle, the demand for beef, the desirable number of cattle, slaughter, etc. The results of this study demonstrate that dominant feedback loops between the number of cattle and livestock prices. The demand for Beef and slaughter with time delay, also the results of the simulation to explain the persistence of future price fluctuations and actions meat market until 2025.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.175-190
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• 2007

Stock market volatility largely depends on firms' value and growth opportunities. However, with the globalization of world economy, the effect of the synchronization in major countries is gaining its importance. Also, domestically, the business cycle and cash market of the country are additional factors needed to be considered. The main purpose of this research is to attest the application and usefulness of System Dynamics as a general stock market forecasting tool. Throughout this research, System Dynamics suggests a conceptual model for forecasting a KOSPI(Korea Composite Stock Price Index), taking the factors of the composite stock price indexes in traditional researches. In conclusion of this research, System Dynamics was proved to bean appropriate model for forecasting the volatility and direction of a stock market as a whole. With its timely adaptability, System Dynamic overcomes the limit of traditional statistic models.

• International Journal of Quality Innovation
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.71-91
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• 2008

The definition of cycle time is the time from the wafer start to the wafer output. It usually takes one or two months to get the product since customer decides to produce it. The cycle time is a critical factor for customer satisfaction because it represents the response time to the market. Long cycle time reflects the ineffective investment for the capital. The cycle time is very important for foundry because long cycle time will cause customer unsatisfied and the order loss. Consequently, all of the foundries put lots of human source in the cycle time improvement. Usually, we make decisions based on the experience in the cycle time management. We have no mechanism or theory for cycle time management. We do work-in-process (WIP) management based on turn rate and standard WIP (STD WIP) set by experiences. But the experience didn't mean the optimal solution, when the situation changed, the cycle time or the standard WIP will also be changed. The experience will not always be applicable. If we only have the experience and no mechanism, management will not be work out. After interview several foundry fab managers, all of the fab can't reflect the situation. That is, all of them will have an impact period after product mix or utilization varied. In this study, we want to develop a formula for standard WIP and use statistical process control (SPC) concept to set WIP upper/lower limit level. When WIP exceed the limit level, it will trigger action plans to compensate WIP Profile. If WIP Profile balances, we don't need too much WIP. So WIP level could be reduced and cycle time also could be reduced.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.49-74
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 기술의 수명주기에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대해 분석하고, 기존 표준모델에서 활용되고 있는 평가지표를 근거로 개별기술의 수명에 영향을 미칠 평가지표를 분석해 이를 정량화하여, 피인용특허수명(CLT)을 기반으로 개별기술의 속성이 반영된 기술수명주기를 산출하는 개선방법을 제안하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법론은 기존 표준모델의 기술수명주기 산출방법인 한계점을 개선할 수 있는 방법으로 평가대상기술 관계자들에게 도출결과에 대한 설득의 용이성과 기존에 비해 보다 합리적인 기준을 제시함으로서 기술수명주기 도출결과의 타당성 및 활용성을 배가시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 융합경영연구
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.31-44
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• 2023

Purpose: This study aims to figure out the characteristics of corporate life cycle and resource input in terms of the sustainability diagnosis of pharmaceutical companies in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology: Using the Gompertz model under the assumption that companies have finite resources, this study tries quantitative interpretation of life cycle and resource input pattern for longevity companies with 25 years of experience among 158 pharmaceutical companies listed on Korean stock market based on maturity of revenue. Results: The study found revenue maturity through Gompertz model was statistically correlated with enterprise value. According to the life cycle analysis, more than 95% of 59 pharmaceutical companies were in the growth and maturity phase and have an average life cycle of 88 years and an average remaining life of 52 years. Regarding maturity profile of resource input, maturity of employees was generally high more than 60% and this meant there was jobless growth in Korean pharmaceutical industry. Conclusion: This study demonstrated there is a high statistical correlation between the maturity of a company's resource input and its revenue and enterprise value. It is believed that these results could be utilized as a basis for high fidelity function that predict revenue and enterprise value based on resource input information.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.33-43
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• 2012

Why solar companies preferred vertical integration of whole value chain? Major solar companies have built internally strong vertical integration of entire PV value chain. We raise a question whether such integration increases the corporate value and whether market situation affects the result. To test these questions, we conducted multi-variant analysis where characteristic factors mainly affect the corporate value measured in terms of Tobin'Q, based on the financial and non-financial data of PV companies listed in US stock market between 2005 and 2010. We hypothesize that since integration increases the overall efficiency but decreases the flexibility to adjust to various market situation, the combined effect of the efficiency gain and the flexibility loss ultimately determines the sign of integration effect on the corporate vale. We infer that the combined effect will be influenced heavily by business cycle, as in boom market (Seller's market) the efficiency gain may be larger than the flexibility loss and vice versa in bust market. We test whether the sign of combined effect changes after the year of 2009 and which factors influence most the sign. Year of 2009 is known as the year when market shifted from Seller's to Buyer's market. We show that 1) integration increases corporate value in general but after 2009 integration significantly decreases the value, 2) the ratios such as Production/Total Cost, Cash turnover period chosen for reversal of the flexibility measure are negatively affect Tobin's Q and especially stronger after 2009. This shows the flexibility improves corporate value and stronger in the recess period (Buyer's market). These results imply that solar company should set up integration strategy considering the tradeoff between efficiency and flexibility and the impact of the business cycle on both factors. Strategy only based on the price competitiveness determined in boom time can bring undesirable outcomes to the company. In addition, Strategic alliances in some value chains as a flexible bondage should be taken in account as complementary choice to the rigid integration.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제13권8호
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• pp.61-71
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• 2015

Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

• 한국의상디자인학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2017

The consumption trend of fashion in modern industrial society is developing from the rapid changes, and the lifespan of fashion products becomes shorter due to the various industrial wastes. Due to the attitude change caused by the ethical consumption consciousness and environment awareness, the up-cycle fashion products got to receive attention, and it is in the limelight as a new trend to realize the sustainable fashion products in the domestic and foreign fashion. The purpose of this study lies in drawing the expression characteristics by investigating and analyzing the cases of each type on the fashion bag products of up-cycle brand, and contributing to the diversification of product family fitting to the characteristics of fashion bag product of up-cycle brand, systematic strategies of up-cycle fashion products, and activation of up-cycle fashion market. In research methods, the theatrical researches were conducted centered the relevant domestic literature materials, preceding papers, etc., which ran paralleled with the actual case analysis study. Through the preceding research and websites related to selected products, websites of up-cycle companies, relevant books, related articles, etc., the expression characteristics of up-cycle fashion bag products were drawn. The results of this study are as follows: First, as it has the feature of historicality, the designs can be created by containing the designer's story, story of materials, and consumer's story. Second, since it has the characteristic of sustainability, the application of manufacturing process and materials, extension of product life, conversion of original material's function, etc. can be sustainable. Third, as it's a trait of scarcity, all products may be produced by hand, and it can have the specialty which the original materials have. Fourth, since it has an eco-friendly trait, even while saving the original materials, the aesthetic needs could be met according to the consumers' continuous demand.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.12-20
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• 2015

최근 건설프로젝트는 기존의 노동집약적 현장생산 방식이 아닌, 공장 생산 기반의 현장 조립 방식인 모듈러 건축물에 주목하고 있다. 모듈러 건축 공법은 기존 방식에 비해 공기 단축효과가 높고, 해체 및 재사용이 용이해 임시 주거시설을 중심으로 적용되고 있다. 그러나 모듈러 공법 실현을 위한 초기 투자비용에 대한 부담으로 인해 국내의 모듈러 건축시장은 아직 활성화되지 못하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 모듈러 건축물이 가지고 있는 경제적 부담에 대한 대안으로서 시장의 수요에 따라 이동 가능한 모듈러 건축 방식에 대하여, 기존의 건축 방식과의 생애주기비용 비교를 통해 경제적 효과를 분석하고자 한다. 본 연구에서 분석의 대상으로 삼은 RC 공법과 모듈러 공법의 이동형 모델의 경제성 평가 결과, 단기적인 측면에서는 RC공법이 빠른 수익률을 달성하였지만 건물의 전 생애주기 측면에서는 이동 가능한 모듈러 건축 방식의 경제성이 보다 큰 것으로 나타났다.

• 경제분석
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.43-71
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• 2020

본 논문은 최근 높아진 청년실업의 경기상관성에 대한 특징을 분석하여, 거시경제학적 관점에서의 시사점을 도출하고자 하였다. 실증분석 결과, 청년실업은 경기상관성이 다른 연령층에 비해서 상대적으로 낮은 것으로 보이며, 최근 잠재경제활동인구를 중심으로 지속적으로 상승한 것을 경기변동 요인만으로 해석하기에는 어려운 것으로 판단된다. 한편, 잠재경제활동인구를 포함한 확장된 개념의 청년고용보조지표는 장기적인 상승 추세를 보이며, 총산출과의 공적분 관계를 지니고 있는 것으로 추정되었다. 이러한 추세적인 증가는 다른 연령층과는 달리 우리나라의 경제성장 경로 상에 내재되어 있는 구조적인 요인들로 부터 영향을 받았을 가능성이 있다는 것을 시사한다. 한편, 기업 규모에 따른 임금 격차가 외환위기 이후로 꾸준히 커졌다는 점과 상대적으로 양질의 일자리를 제공하는 대기업 취업자 비중이 주요 선진국에 비해서 상당히 낮은 수준이라는 점은 청년층 노동시장의 구조적인 변화를 반영한다고 볼 수 있다. 이러한 구조변화 속에서 청년층의 구직활동 기간이 길어지는 현상이 앞선 실증분석 결과로 나타난 것으로 사료된다.