• Title/Summary/Keyword: low failure probability

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Use of hazardous event frequency to evaluate safety integrity level of subsea blowout preventer

  • Chung, Soyeon;Kim, Sunghee;Yang, Youngsoon
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.262-276
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    • 2016
  • Generally, the Safety Integrity Level (SIL) of a subsea Blowout Preventer (BOP) is evaluated by determining the Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD), a low demand mode evaluation indicator. However, some SIL results are above the PFD's effective area despite the subsea BOP's demand rate being within the PFD's effective range. Determining a Hazardous Event Frequency (HEF) that can cover all demand rates could be useful when establishing the effective BOP SIL. This study focused on subsea BOP functions that follow guideline 070 of the Norwegian Oil and Gas. Events that control subsea well kicks are defined. The HEF of each BOP function is analyzed and compared with the PFD by investigating the frequency for each event and the demand rate for the components. In addition, risk control options related to PFD and HEF improvements are compared, and the effectiveness of HEF as a SIL verification for subsea BOP is assessed.

Seismic performance assessment of NPP concrete containments considering recent ground motions in South Korea

  • Kim, Chanyoung;Cha, Eun Jeong;Shin, Myoungsu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.386-400
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    • 2022
  • Seismic fragility analysis, a part of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA), is commonly used to establish the relationship between a representative property of earthquakes and the failure probability of a structure, component, or system. Current guidelines on the SPRA of nuclear power plants (NPPs) used worldwide mainly reflect the earthquake characteristics of the western United States. However, different earthquake characteristics may have a significant impact on the seismic fragility of a structure. Given the concern, this study aimed to investigate the effects of earthquake characteristics on the seismic fragility of concrete containments housing the OPR-1000 reactor. Earthquake time histories were created from 30 ground motions (including those of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake) by spectral matching to the site-specific response spectrum of Hanbit nuclear power plants in South Korea. Fragility curves of the containment structure were determined under the linear response history analysis using a lumped-mass stick model and 30 ground motions, and were compared in terms of earthquake characteristics. The results showed that the median capacity and high confidence of low probability of failure (HCLPF) tended to highly depend on the sustained maximum acceleration (SMA), and increase when using the time histories which have lower SMA compared with the others.

Seismic Fragility of Low-rise Piloti Buildings Designed According to KDS 41 17 00 (KDS 41 17 00에 따라 설계된 저층 필로티 건물의 지진 취약도)

  • Joo, Changhyeok;Kim, Taewan
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2022
  • The 2017 Pohang earthquake caused severe damage to low-rise piloti buildings. The damage was caused mainly by column shear failure, and some core walls were as well. The damaged piloti buildings in Pohang City could be relieved if they were designed correctly according to the standards at that time. However, the post-earthquake investigation revealed design, construction, and permission problems. To solve the problems, the Piloti Building Structure Design Guidelines that include strict specifications were published in 2018. Separately, KDS 41 17 00, the seismic design standard for buildings, was enacted in 2019 and it included the guideline contents. Therefore, at least after the publication of the guidelines, piloti buildings, designed by the standard and guidelines, can be expected to possess better seismic performance than existing piloti buildings. To confirm this, the probability of exceedance for several damage state thresholds was estimated for existing and designed piloti buildings. As a result, the probability of damage of designed piloti buildings was very low compared to existing ones. Consequently, it was confirmed that the guideline and standard adequately supplement the structural fragility of existing piloti buildings.

Influence of Concrete Acceptance Strength Control on Reliability of RC Structures: Korean Practice (콘크리트 품질이 RC구조물의 신뢰성에 미치는 영향)

  • M.B.크라코프스키;박순규
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 1995.04a
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    • pp.366-371
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    • 1995
  • This paper is designed to bring to the attention of the reader the situation that may constitute a threat to the safety of RC structures designed and constructed in Korea. This threat stems from the inadequate rules of the acceptance strength control of concrete. As a result in some cases probability of brittle failure can be very high and reliability becomes very low. The paper substantiates the above statements. Further investigations aimed at finding the measures to remedy the situatuion are recommended.

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Fatigue Strength Analysis of Propulsion Shafting System with Two Stroke Low Speed Diesel Engine by Torsional Vibration in Frequency Domain (주파수 영역에서 비틀림진동에 의한 저속 2행정 디젤엔진을 갖는 추진축계의 피로강도 해석)

  • Kim, S.H.;Lee, D.C.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.416-422
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    • 2007
  • Prime movers in most large merchant ships adapt two stroke low speed diesel engine which has higher efficiency, mobility and durability. However, severe torsional vibration in these diesel engines may be induced by higher fluctuation of combustion pressures. Consequently, it may lead sometimes to propulsion shafting failure due to the accumulated fatigue stresses. Shaft fatigue strength analysis had been done traditionally in time domain but this method is complicated and difficult in analysing bi-modal vibration system such as the case of cylinder misfiring condition. In this paper authors introduce an assessment method of fatigue strength estimation for propulsion shafting system with two stroke low speed diesel engine in the frequency domain.

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Ground Investigation and Characterization for Deep Tunnel Design (대심도 암반의 터널 설계를 위한 지반 조사와 특성화)

  • Yoon, Woon-Sang;Choi, Jae-Won;Park, Jeong-Hoon;Song, Kook-Hwan;Kim, Young-Keun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2009.09a
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    • pp.584-590
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    • 2009
  • One of the critical design problems involved in deep tunnelling in brittle rock, is the creation of surface spalling damage and breakouts. If weak fault zone is developed in deep tunnel, squeezing problem is added to the problems. According to the results of ground investigation in the study area, hard granitic rockmass and distinguished high angle fault zone are distributed on the tunnel level over 400m depth. To analyse the probability of brittle failure and squeezing, ground characterization with special lab. and field test were carried out. By the results, probability of brittle failures like spalling and rock burst is very low. But squeezing may be probable, if weak fault zone observed surface and drill core is extended to designed tunnel level.

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The Performance Analysis of Hierarchical Cellular System According to Dwell Time (Dwell Time에 따른 계층 셀룰라 시스템의 성능 분석)

  • Seong, Hong-Seok;Won, Young-Jin;Yun, Ki-Bang
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2007.07a
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    • pp.471-472
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    • 2007
  • At this paper, we use non reversible hierarchical scheme and fixed channel assignment scheme at the hierarchical cellular system with macrocell and microcell for the call process strategy Using this strategy, we analyze the system performance in accordance with the various dwell time at each cell. In this simulation result, the more the dwell time is small at microcell, the more the blocking probability and the handover failure probability is low.

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Non-parametric Adaptive Importance Sampling for Fast Simulation Technique (속산 시뮬레이션을 위한 적응형 비모수 중요 샘플링 기법)

  • 김윤배
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.77-89
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    • 1999
  • Simulating rare events, such as probability of cell loss in ATM networks, machine failure in highly reliable systems, requires huge simulation efforts due to the low chance of occurrence. Importance Sampling (IS) has been applied to accelerate the occurrence of rare events. However, it has a drawback of effective biasing scheme to make the estimator of IS unbiased. Adaptive Importance Sampling (AIS) employs an estimated sampling distribution of IS to the system of interest during the course of simulation. We propose Nonparametric Adaptive Importance Sampling (NAIS) technique which is nonparametrical version of AIS. We test NAIS to estimate a probability of rare event in M/M/1 queueing model. Comparing with classical Monte Carlo simulation, the computational efficiency and variance reductions gained via NAIS are substantial. A possible extension of NAIS regarding with random number generation is also discussed.

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A Quality Game between Producer and Supplier : the effect of the contract terms and the quality related variables on product duality (완성품생산자와 부품공급자의 품질게임 : 품질계약내용 및 품질관련변수가 품질수준에 미치는 영향)

  • 김남영
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2002
  • This paper examines the effect of the producer-supplier quality contract parameters and the magnitude of the quality related variables on the quality of the final products. Our analysis focuses on the parties' equilibrium behavior In a quality game environment where the supplier should choose among the two production technologies, one requiring high cost but producing high quality Parts and the other requiring low cost but producing low quality parts and where the producer should decide whether to do the inspection of the parts. The game framework is employed to depict the potential conflicts existing between the Producer and the supplier because the Producer can not observe the supplier's choice and each party wants the other to bear the cost of producing high quality products. In our model, we specifically consider the competitive situation where the producer competes with a firm producing the same product. We employ the market share attraction model to Incorporate the competitive situation and completely characterize the equilibrium by using the Nash equilibrium concept for the game solution. Our results show that the equilibrium depends on the contract terms and the magnitude of the quality related variables. Compared to the non-competitive situation, the probability of producer's Inspection and the probability of supplier's choosing the high quality technology increases in a competitive situation. This is true even when the competitor's quality is lower than the producer's lowest. As a result, the quality of the final product increases In a competitive situation. And as the failure cost borne by the supplier increases, the probability of choosing the high quality technology Increases and the probability of inspection decreases. The net effect of this results in the decrease of the final product quality.

On Reliability Performance of Safety Instrumented Systems with Common Cause Failures in IEC 61508 Standard (공통원인고장을 고려한 안전제어시스템의 신뢰성 평가척도에 관한 고찰 : IEC 61508을 중심으로)

  • Seo, Sun-Keun
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.405-415
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    • 2012
  • The reliability performance measures for low and high or continuous demand modes of operation of safety instrumented systems(SISs) are examined and compared by analyzing the official definitions in IEC 61508 standard. This paper also presents a status of common cause factor(CCF) models used in IEC 61508 and problems relating CCF modelling are discussed and ideas to solve these ones are suggested. An example with mixed M-out-of-N architecture is carried out to illustrate the proposed methods.