• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.264-272
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• 2011

The objective of this study was to develop a model for predicting long-term runoff in a basin using the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique and review its reliability. To achieve the objective, this study improved not only the ESP technique based on the ensemble scenario analysis of historical rainfall data but also conventional ESP techniques used in conjunction with qualitative climate forecasting information, and analyzed and assessed their improvement effects. The model was applied to the Geum River basin. To undertake runoff forecasting, this study tried three cases (case 1: Climate Outlook + ESP, case 2: ESP probability through monthly measured discharge, case 3: Season ESP probability of case 2) according to techniques used to calculate ESP probabilities. As a result, the mean absolute error of runoff forecasts for case 1 proposed by this study was calculated as 295.8 MCM. This suggests that case 1 showed higher reliability in runoff forecasting than case 2 (324 MCM) and case 3 (473.1 MCM). In a discrepancy-ratio accuracy analysis, the Climate Outlook + ESP technique displayed 50.0%. This suggests that runoff forecasting using the Climate Outlook +ESP technique with the lowest absolute error was more reliable than other two cases.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.12
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• pp.1067-1074
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• 2019

In Korea, there are long-term rainfall observation data using Cheugugi, but it is relatively insufficient to use the data for water resources planning and management. In this study, river runoff is estimated based on the measurement data using Cheugugi so that it can be used as a scenario for the water resources planning process. After deriving the relationship between rainfall and runoff, the results are applied to the observations of Cheugugi to estimate the Han River runoff. An analysis of the estimated river runoff is made to confirm that there is a very severe drought for three consecutive years from 1900 to 1902. Especially, it is analyzed that there is a very small runoff in 1901, which is 8.6% compared to the average of estimated runoff. Consequently, it is judged that the results of this study can be useful as a scenario for water resources planning or drought response planning.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.107-117
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• 2024

The objective of this study is to estimate riverbed fluctuations and the volume of aggregate extraction attributable to climate change. Rainfall-runoff modeling, utilizing the SWAT model based on climate change scenarios, as well as long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling, employing the HEC-RAS model, were conducted for the Nonsan River basin. The analysis of rainfall-runoff and sediment transport under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the early part of the future indicates that differences in annual precipitation may exceed 600 mm, resulting in a corresponding variation in the basin's sediment discharge by more than 30,000 tons per year. Additionally, long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling of the lower reaches of the Nonsan Stream has identified a potential aggregate extraction area. It is estimated that aggregate extraction could be feasible within a 2.455 km stretch upstream, approximately 4.6 to 6.9 km from the confluence with the Geum River. These findings suggest that the risk of climate crises, such as extreme rainfall or droughts, could increase due to abnormal weather conditions, and the increase in variability could affect long-term aggregate extraction. Therefore, it is considered important to take into account the impact of climate change in future long-term aggregate extraction planning and policy formulation.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.268-280
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• 2009

Oncheon basin which are located in Busan is divided into 43 basin on the basis of main pipe, constructed with Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Occurrence situation for Outflow and pollutant loads by long-term continuous rainfall is examined for treatment district and river analysis point of Oncheon basin and a reduction vs effectiveness table for effective CSOs managements is made for each of treatment districts according to each of managements. In case that treatment equipment is located at the discharge point of CSO, treatment efficiency is analysed. It is supposed that treatment equipment have an efficiency on the basis of a concentration and runoff discharge over a critical flow is discharged with it untreated and treating runoff discharge with treatment equipment at each of runoff discharge points and treating it gathered at sewage treatment plant (STP) through trunk sewer is compared for a relative treatment efficiency.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.393-405
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• 2000

Monthly runoff was estimated using TOPMODEL which simulates ground water movement as well as surface runoff in the area of catchment. SAYUN dam which is being operated by Korea Water Resources Corporation was selected for the study, and the topographic factors of the watershed were analyzed using 1/5,000 digital map and GIS software(Arc/Info). The comparison shows good agreement between observed monthly runoff and the computation results simulated by using TOPMODEL. The catchment area of SAYUN dam was modeled by using various grid sizes in order to check the sensitivity of grid size, and the grid size of 180m was found most proper among 6 different sizes. TOPMODEL was also found superior to the existing monthly runoff models such as Kajiyama, KRIHS and Tank. Because the model requires limited number of parameters and considers topographic aspects, it is reckoned to be very useful for practical use.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.311-321
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• 2009

Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) was modified to improve runoff and pollutant load prediction for Korean watersheds with changes in land use classification and event mean concentration produced from observed data in Korea. The L-THIA model was linked with SCE-UA, which is one of the global optimization techniques, to automatically calibrate direct runoff. Modified L-THIA model was applied to Gumho River Basins to analyze spatial distribution of nonpoint source pollution. The results of model calibration during 1991~2000 and validation during 1981~1990 for direct runoff represented high model efficiency of 0.76 for calibration and 0.86 for validation. As a results of spatial analysis of nonpoint source pollution, the BOD was mainly loaded from urban area but SS, TN, and TP from agricultural area which is mainly located along the stream. Modified L-THIA model improve its accuracy with minimum imput data and application efforts. From this study, we can find out the L-THIA model is very useful tool to predict direct runoff and pollutant loads from the watershed and spatial analysis of nonpoint source pollution.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.856-864
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• 2006

For estimating the minimum discharge to maintain a river, low flow analysis is required and long term runoff records are needed for the analysis. However, runoff data should be estimated to run a hydrologic model for ungaged river basin. For the reason, parameter estimation is crucial to simulate rainfall-runoff events for those basins using Tank model. In this study, only runoff data recorded for dry season are used for parameter estimation, which is different to other methods based on runoff data recorded for wet and dry seasons. The Harmony Search algorithm is used to determine the optimum parameters for Tank model. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$) is served as the objective function in the Harmony Search. In cases that recorded data are insufficient, the recording interval is changed and Empirical CDF is adopted to analyze the estimated parameters. The suggested method is applied to Yongdam dam, Soyanggang dam, Chungju dam and Seomjingang dam basins. As results, the higher $R^2s$ are obtained when the shorter recording interval, the better recorded data quality, and the more rainfall events recorded along with certain rainfall amount is. Moreover, when the total rainfall is higher than the certain amount, $R^2$ is high. Considering the facts found from this study for the low flow analysis, it is possible to estimate the parameters for Tank model properly with the desired confidence level.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.243-251
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• 2010

Evapotranspiration and rainfall-runoff are the major components of hydrological cycle and thereby the changes of them can directly affect the wetness/dryness or runoff characteristics of basins. In this study the wetness/dryness in Geum river basin are classified by dint of cumulative probability density function of monthly moisture index and the long term changes of them are analyzed based on climatic water balance concept. The drought events in Geum river basin are selected through evaluation of monthly moisture index and the various hydrological properties of them are investigated in detail. Also the trends of time-series of climatic water balance components are examined by Seasonal Kendall test and the variability of hydrological cycle in Geum river basin during the recent decade is inquired. It is judged that the results of this study can be contributed to establishment of the counter plan against the future drought events as the fundamental information.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.235-238
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• 2003

In this study, we developed Open Water Management Program (OWMP) with an open architecture to deal with newly arising upgrade problems for a water management automation system. When we executed OWMP with data produced from an experimental field in Korea, the relative errors of this simulation were less than 5%. We developed runoff calculation model and verified it with measured data of 4 basins included in IHP. The relative errors came out less than 5% in all basins, except for one basin. We also applied OWMP to seongju irrigation reservoir to simulate daily runoff from 1998 to 2002, and the day, month, and year relative error between measured and simulated value was 0.25-0.05. Therefore the OWMP can be a tool nicely adapted to the optimal water management of irrigation reservoir.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.4 no.4 s.15
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• pp.27-34
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• 2004

In this paper, in order to analyse the variation of runoff characteristics depending upon installation of the groundwater recharge facilities, the experiment basin was prepared and the ratio of infiltration and runoff volume were observed in the rainfall events. For the rainfall analysis, 4 types of rainfall events were examined during July 11${\sim}$July 17, 2004. The results show that the mean ratio of infiltration was 89.39% and the mean ratio of runoff was 10.61%. For the artificial rainfall events, which are in the range of rainfall intensities between 60mm/hr and 100mm/hr, all the rainfall volume was infiltrated through the groundwater recharging basin. However, it is necessary to be careful for the long term rainfall, the runoff can be occurred based on the groundwater table.