• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term change

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Long-term Trend Analysis of Extreme Temperatures in East Asia Using Quantile Regression (분위수 회귀분석을 이용한 동아시아 지역 극한기온의 장기 추세 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Wook;Song, Kanghyun;Yoo, Young-Eun;Son, Seok-Woo;Jeong, Su-Jong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.157-169
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    • 2018
  • This study explores the long?term trends of extreme temperatures of 270 observation stations in East Asia (China, Japan, and Korea) for 1961?2013. The 5th percentile of daily minimum temperatures (TN05%) and 95th percentile of daily maximum temperatures (TX95%), derived from the quantile regression, are particularly examined in term of their linear and nonlinear trends. The warming trends of TN05% are typically stronger than those of TX95% with more significant trends in winter than in summer for most stations. In both seasons, warming trends of TN05% tend to amplify with latitudes. The nonlinear trends, quantified by the $2^{nd}$?order polynomial fitting, exhibit different structures with seasons. While summer TN05% and TX95% were accelerated in time, winter TN05% underwent weakening of warming since the 2000s. These results suggest that extreme temperature trends in East Asia are not homogeneous in time and space.

Detection of short-term changes using MODIS daily dynamic cloud-free composite algorithm

  • Kim, Sun-Hwa;Eun, Jeong;Kang, Sung-Jin;Lee, Kyu-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.259-276
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    • 2011
  • Short-term land cover changes, such as forest fire scar and crop harvesting, can be detected by high temporal resolution satellite imagery like MODIS and AVHRR. Because these optical satellite images are often obscured by clouds, the static cloud-free composite methods (maximum NDVI, minblue, minVZA, etc.) has been used based on non-overlapping composite period (8-day, 16-day, or a month). Due to relatively long time lag between successive images, these methods are not suitable for observing short-term land cover changes in near-real time. In this study, we suggested a new dynamic cloud-free composite algorithm that uses cut-and-patch method of cloud-masked daily MODIS data using MOD35 products. Because this dynamic composite algorithm generates daily cloud-free MODIS images with the most recent information, it can be used to monitor short-term land cover changes in near-real time. The dynamic composite algorithm also provides information on the date of each pixel used in compositing, thereby makes accurately identify the date of short-term event.

Analysis on short-term decay heat after shutdown during load-follow operation with seasonal and daily scenarios

  • Hwang, Dae Hee;Kim, Yonghee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.10
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    • pp.3878-3887
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    • 2022
  • For the future energy-mix policy for carbon neutrality, demand for the capability of load-follow operation has emerged in nuclear power plants in order to accommodate the intermittency of renewable energy. The short-term decay heat analysis is also required to evaluate the decay heat level varied by the power level change during the load-follow operation, which is a very important parameter in terms of short-term decay heat removal during a grace time. In this study, the short-term decay heat level for 10 days after the shutdown was evaluated for both seasonal and daily load-follow cases. Additionally, the nuclide-wise contribution to the accumulated decay heat for 10 days was analyzed for further understanding of the short-term decay heat behavior. The result showed that in the seasonal case, the decay heat level was mainly determined by the power level right before the shutdown and the amount of each nuclide was varied with the power variation due to the long variation interval of 90 days. Whereas, in the daily case, the decay heat level was strongly impacted by the average power level during operation and meaningful mass variations for those nuclides were not observed due to the short variation interval of 0.5 days.

Estimation and Comparative Analysis on the Distribution Functions of Air and Water Temperatures in Korean Coastal Seas (우리나라 연안의 기온과 수온 분포함수 추정 및 비교평가)

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Jeong, Shin-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.171-176
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    • 2016
  • The distribution shapes of air and water temperatures are basic and essential information, which determine the frequency patterns of their occurrence. It is also very useful to understand the changes in long-term air and water temperatures with respect to climate change. The typical distribution shapes of air and water temperatures cannot be well fitted using widely used/accepted normal distributions because their shapes show multimodal distributions. In this study, Gaussian mixture distributions and kernel distributions are suggested as the more suitable models to fit their distribution shapes. Based on the results, the tail shape exhibits different patterns. The tail is long in higher temperature regions of water temperature distribution and in lower temperature regions of air temperature distribution. These types of shape comparisons can be useful to identify the patterns of long-term air and water temperature changes and the relationship between air and water temperatures. It is nearly impossible to identify change patterns using only mean-temperatures and normal distributions.

An Analysis on the Change of Existing Building-related System in Urban Parks (도시공원 내 기존 건축물 제도의 변천 과정 분석)

  • Oh, Chang-Song;Sim, Ji-Soo
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2019
  • Existing buildings in urban parks are a kind of thing that has been settled and occupied on the site of an unexecuted park. The aim of this study is to identify nature by analyzing the causality and path-dependency through the transformation of the relevant system. The scope of the study was set up as a system for the occupancy of urban parks from 1934 when the building restriction system was established to 2000 when purchase claim (매수청구권) was introduced. The method of study was to get correlation by harmonizing the external and internal mechanisms affecting the relevant institution. The related system showed a modest change in the fourth stage, polymerizing the initial system. In the 1950s and 1960s, the existing buildings in urban parks were 'disguised' by government and the 'regulation' principle was applied since 1967. In the 1980s, the principle of 'protection' and 'support' for parks was added, but in the 1990s, the principle of regulation began to be lifted as the long-term unexecuted urban park (장기미집행 도시공원) problem continued for more than 60 years. Although the public concept of land ownership (토지공개념) has worked strongly for nearly 30 years since 1960, the system has developed into a form of deregulation since 1980. The nature of the relevant institution is first, dependent on the higher-level system and vertical. Second, it implies a conflict of restrictions and acceptance. Third, it is a temporary measure of the park problem. Therefore, the relevant system has long been enhancing the encroachment requirements on urban parks, so fundamental readjustment is needed in the future.

The Time Dependent Deflection Characteristics and Evaluation of Reinforced Recycled Aggregate Concrete Beams (순환골재를 사용한 철근콘크리트 보의 장기 처짐 특성 및 평가)

  • Ji, Sang-Kyu;Yun, Hyun-Do;Kim, Sun-Woo;Lee, Eon-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents experimental and analytical results on the long-term behavior of the reinforced recycled aggregate concrete beams under sustained loading. In this experimental program, three beams with different conditions of aggregates replacement (natural aggregate 100%, recycled coarse aggregate 100%, recycled fine aggregate 50%) were subjected to the sustained flexural loading that was a half of the nominal flexural capacity over a period of 1 year. The beam were designed with net span of 2,000 mm and rectangular cross-section of 170 mm width and 170 mm effective depth. The beams were instrumented and monitored to observe the change in the long-term behavior due to creep and shrinkage of concrete under sustained loading. The predictions of long-term deflection by ACI code, Branson, Mayer, Neville, EMM and AEMM were compared with the experimental results. From the experimental results, the reinforced concrete beams with recycled aggregates showed the same performance as that of a beam with natural aggregate. The proposed method to predict the long-term deflections of reinforced recycled aggregate concrete beams gives a good estimation for experimental results.

Analysis of Abroad Mid- to Long-Term R&D Themes and Market Information in the Geological Information and Mineral Resources Fields (지질정보 및 광물자원 분야 국외 중장기 연구개발 주제 및 시장정보 분석)

  • Ahn, Eun-Young
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.637-645
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    • 2019
  • Due to the transformation to the intelligent information society, the rapid change of our life and environment is expected. The Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) and the National Research Council of Science and Technology (NST) introduced a five-year government supported research institution's planning and evaluation based on the mid-to long-term perspective. This study collects international benchmarking information including industry, academia, and research fields by collecting mid- and long-term strategy reports from public research institutes, surveys by experts from abroad universities and research institutes, and analyzing overseas market information reports. The British Geological Survey (BGS), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the japanese geological survey related institutes (AIST-GSJ) plans for three-dimensional national geological information, predictions of geological environmental disasters, and development of important metals and material in the low carbon economic transformation and in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The mid- and long-term program emphasizes basic and public research on geological information through abroad experts survey such as the IPGP-CNRS etc. The market analysis of the mining automation and digital map sectors has been able to derive the fields in which the role of public research institutes by the market is expected such as data collection on land and in the air, mobile or three-dimensional information production, smooth/fast/real-time maps, custom map design, mapping support to various platforms, geological environmental risk assessment and disaster management information and maps.

A Study on the Thermal Stability of Long-Term Fuel Storage and Lifetime Estimation of Rubber O-ring in Contacted with Fuel (장기 저장연료의 열안정성 및 연료접촉 고무오링의 수명예측 연구)

  • Chung, K.W.;Hong, J.S.;Kim, Y.W.;Han, J.S.;Jeong, B.H.;Kwon, T.S.;Suh, D.O.;Sung, M.J.;Kwon, Y.I.
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2018
  • Thermal deterioration of fuel due to long-term storage influences engine performance and causes malfunctions. Fuel stability is usually evaluated via heat resistance and thermal stability during a brief heat shock at high temperature; storage stability in this scenario means that there is very little change in the quality of the fuel during long-term storage. In addition, rubber-based products such as oil seals, O-rings, and rubber hoses can influence the quality of the fuel. When these rubber products are in contact with fuel, they can swell, mechanically weaken, and occasionally crack, thus leaking low molar weight rubber and additives including plasticizer and antioxidant into the fuel to degrade its properties and shorten its useful lifetime. This study determines the thermal stabilities of three kinds of synthetic fuels by evaluating their low temperature kinematic viscosities, chemical composition changes via GC analyses, gross heat of combustion, and color changes. We evaluate the compression set of O-rings by immersing one NBR and two FKM rubber O-rings in the three synthetic fuel samples in airtight containers at variable storage temperatures for six months; from this, we estimate the lifetimes of the O-rings using the Power law model. There were very little changes in the chemical compositions and gross heat of combustion after six months of the experiment. The lifetimes are thus dependent on the materials of the rubber products, and in particular, the FKM O-ring was calculated to have a theoretical lifetime of 200 to 5,700 years. These results indicate that the synthetic fuels maintain their physical properties even after long-term storage at high temperatures, and the FKM O-ring is suitable for long-term sealing of these fuels.

A study on the Trend Analysis and Road map Design of the Facilities Disaster and Safety Technology in the Country and Oversea (국내외 인적재난 안전기술개발 동향분석 및 로드맵 수립에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Tae Shik;An, Jae Woo;Song, Cheol Ho;Seok, Geum Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2013
  • This paper is to show the long-term roadmap by analyzing the development trend for the safety technology of facility disaster in the country and abroad, and it is designed to plan the long term and roadmap in response to change the disaster environment. Recently in the country, it is increasing the needs of the long term roadmap design of the facility disaster research development in the facility disaster, by the repidly of the social and the living and the related governments response's changing. The U.S. is going to develop the disaster responding research by planning the its master plans, including the NRF (National Responing Framwork), the NIMS (National Incident Management System), and its sinarios etc.. Japan is going to develop the research planning in the annual report of the disaster prevention, and we going to do the study projects about the facility disaster area with the NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency) and NDMI (National Disaster Management Institute). This paper is showed to design the long term roadmap of the facility disaster's study development, and to minimize the damage of the man and his property, and to set the study development system of the national facility disaster, and furthering to make the resilient planning in changing of the facility disaster's environment.

Effects of Professional Oral Care for Long-term Patients in Nursing Facilities on the Streptococcus mutans Population in the Intraoral Region (전문가구강관리가 요양병원 장기입원환자들의 구강 내 Streptococcus mutans 수에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Sung-Mi;Kim, Gi-Ug;Sakong, Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.5062-5069
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    • 2014
  • In this study, professional oral care was provided and 3 times a day twice a week by a dental hygienist for 3 months from July 24 to October 25, 2011, to 43 long-term patients in a single nursing facility located at the city of D, and the number of mutans strepococci colonies within the saliva and the level of salivation were then analyzed after 3 samplings with an interval of 1 month to compare the intraoral conditions among the subjects and examine the effects of professional oral care on the Streptococcus mutans population in the intraoral region of long-term patients in a nursing facility. The level of salivation was elevated from 5.8 ml to 6.4 ml after one month and to 7.5mL after two months. The population of bacteria decreased from $6{\times}10^8CFU/ml$ to $3{\times}105CFU/ml$. In terms of the change in the bacterial population in accordance with systemic diseases, the patients with hypertension and diabetes showed a meaningful decrease in the population. As more dental charge and prosthesis are present, the number of bacteria decreased significantly. On account of the close relationship between a professional oral care and the population of Streptococcus mutans at the intraoral region of long-term patients in nursing facilities, various dental health programs should be researched and developed to consider the characteristics of long-term patients in nursing facilities and manage them continuously but effectively.