Journal of Climate Change Research (한국기후변화학회지)

The Korean Society of Climate Change Research (한국기후변화학회)
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Long-term Trend Analysis of Extreme Temperatures in East Asia Using Quantile Regression

분위수 회귀분석을 이용한 동아시아 지역 극한기온의 장기 추세 분석

  • Kim, Sang-Wook (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Song, Kanghyun (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Yoo, Young-Eun (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Son, Seok-Woo (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jeong, Su-Jong (Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University)
  • 김상욱 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 송강현 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 유영은 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 손석우 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 정수종 (서울대학교 환경대학원 환경계획학과)
  • Received : 2018.02.28
  • Accepted : 2018.04.27
  • Published : 2018.06.30
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Abstract

This study explores the long?term trends of extreme temperatures of 270 observation stations in East Asia (China, Japan, and Korea) for 1961?2013. The 5th percentile of daily minimum temperatures (TN05%) and 95th percentile of daily maximum temperatures (TX95%), derived from the quantile regression, are particularly examined in term of their linear and nonlinear trends. The warming trends of TN05% are typically stronger than those of TX95% with more significant trends in winter than in summer for most stations. In both seasons, warming trends of TN05% tend to amplify with latitudes. The nonlinear trends, quantified by the $2^{nd}$?order polynomial fitting, exhibit different structures with seasons. While summer TN05% and TX95% were accelerated in time, winter TN05% underwent weakening of warming since the 2000s. These results suggest that extreme temperature trends in East Asia are not homogeneous in time and space.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Grant : 동아시아 이동성 저기압의 종관-기후학적 특성 분석 및 예측성 평가

Supported by : 한국기상산업기술원, 기상청