• Title/Summary/Keyword: long period structure

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Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

A Study of the Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall in Seoul with the Classification of Atmospheric Vertical Structures (대기연직구조 분류에 따른 서울지역 강한 강수 특성 연구)

  • Nam, Hyoung-Gu;Guo, Jianping;Kim, Hyun-Uk;Jeong, Jonghyeok;Kim, Baek-Jo;Shim, Jae-Kwan;Kim, Byung-Gon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.572-583
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the atmospheric vertical structure (AVS) associated with summertime (June, July, and August) heavy rainfall in Seoul was classified into three patterns (Loaded Gun: L, Inverted V: IV, and Thin Tube: TT) using rawinsonde soundings launched at Osan from 2009 to 2018. The characteristics of classified AVS and precipitation property were analyzed. Occurrence frequencies in each type were 34.7% (TT-type), 20.4% (IV-type), 20.4% (LG-type), and 24.5% (Other-type), respectively. The mean value of Convective Available Potential Energy (1131.1 J kg-1) for LG-types and Storm Relative Helicity (357.6 ㎡s-2) for TT-types was about 2 times higher than that of other types, which seems to be the difference in the mechanism of convection at the low level atmosphere. The composited synoptic fields in all cases showed a pattern that warm and humid southwesterly wind flows into the Korean Peninsula. In the cases of TT-type, the low pressure center (at 850 hPa) was followed by the trough in upper-level (at 500 hPa) as the typical pattern of a low pressure deepening. The TT-type was strongly influenced by the low level jet (at 850 hPa), showing a pattern of connecting the upper- and low-level jets. The result of analysis indicated that precipitation was intensified in the first half of all types. IV-type precipitation induced by thermal instability tended to last for a short term period with strong precipitation intensity, while TT-type by mechanical instability showed weak precipitation over a long term period.

Rice Cultivation and Demographi Development in Korea : 1429-1918 (조선시대(朝鮮時代) 도작농업(稻作農業)의 발전(發展)과 인구증가(人口增加))

  • Lee, Ho Chol
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.7
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    • pp.201-219
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    • 1989
  • Rice culture in Korea has a long history ranging over two thousand years. In the agriculture economy of pre-mordern Korea, however, its importantce was not as great as generally assumed. In fact, rice culture reached full development only after the 1920s when the Japanese colonial government carried out its drive to increase rice production in the Korea peninsula. It was not until the mid-1930s that rice became the staple in Korean diet. This can be attributed to two factors : (1) a mountainous topography that provides little irrigated fields and (2) a climate characterized by droughts in spring and heavy precipitation in summer. The present paper attempts to answer some of these questions. Specifically it will focus on these : Did the development of rice culture actually result in population growth? What are the salient features of agricultural develdpment and population grow in traditional Korea? Does the case of Korea conform the prevailing generalization about the agriculture in East Asia? I have discussed the development of rice culture and population growth in the Chos$\breve{o}$n dynasty, focusing on the relation between the rapid spread of transplanting and the rapid growth of population from the seventeenth to the nineteenth century. Here are my conclusions. (1) The spread of transplanting and other technological innovationsc contributed to the rapid growth of population in this period. However, we should also note that the impact of rice culture on population growth was rather limited, for rice culture was not the mainstay of agricultural economy in pre-modern Korea. Indeed we should consider the influence of dry field cropsn population growth. Nevertheless, it is obvious that the proliferation of rice culture was a factor crucial to population growth and regional concentration. (2) How should we characterize the spread of rice culture in the whole period? Evidently rice culture spread from less then 20% of cultivated fields in the fifteenth century to about 36% of them in the early twentieth century. Although rice as a single crop outweighed other crops, rice culture was more then counter-balanced by dry field crops as a whole, due to Korea's unique climate and geography. Thus what we have here in not a typical case of competition between rice culture and day field culture. Besides, the spread of rice culture in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries accomplished by technological innovations that overcame severe springtime drought, rather than extensive irrigation. Althougt irrigarion facilities did proliferate to some extent, this was achieved by local landlords and peasants rather than the state. This fact contradicts the classical thesis that the productivity of rice culture increased through the state management of irrigation and that this in turn determined the type of society. (3) We should further study other aspects of the transition from the stable population and production struture in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries to the rapid population growth and excessive density of population thereafter. We should note that there were continuing efforts to reclaim the land in order to solve the severe shortage of land. Changes also took place in the agricultural production relations. The increase in land producrivity developed tenancy based on rent in kind, and this in turn increased the independence of tenants from their landlords. There were changes in family relations-such as the shift to primogeniture as an effort to prevent progressive division of property among multiplying offspring. The rapid population growth also produced a great mass of propertyless farm laborers. These changes had much to do with the disintegration of traditional social institutions and political structure toward the end of the Chos$\breve{o}$n dynasty.

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Application of the Pulsatile Cardiopulmonary Bypass in Animal Model (이중 박동성 인공심폐기의 동물 실험)

  • Shin, Hwa-Kyun;Won, Yong-Soon;Lee, Jea-Yook;Her, Keun;Yeum, Yook;Kim, Seung-Chul;Min, Byoung-Goo
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2004
  • Background: Currently, the cardiopulmonary machine with non-pulsatile pumps, which are low in internal circuit pressure and cause little damage to blood cells, is widely used. However, a great number of experimental studies shows that pulsatile perfusions are more useful than non-pulsatile counterparts in many areas, such as homodynamic, metabolism, organ functions, and micro-circulation. Yet, many concerns relating to pulsatile cardiopulmonary machines, such as high internal circuit pressure and blood cell damage, have long hindered the development of pulsatile cardiopulmonary machines. Against this backdrop, this study focuses on the safety and effectiveness of the pulsatile cardiopulmonary machines developed by a domestic research lab. Material and Method: The dual-pulsatile cardiopulmonary bypass experiment with total extracorporeal circulation was conducted on six calves, Extracorporeal circulation was provided between superior/inferior vena cava and aorta. The membrane oxygenator, which was placed between the left and right pumps, was used for blood oxygenation. Circulation took four hours. Arterial blood gas analysis and blood tests were also conducted. Plasma hemoglobin levels were calculated, while pulse pressure and internal circuit pressure were carefully observed. Measurement was taken five times; once before the operation of the cardiopulmonary bypass, and after its operation it was taken every hour for four hours. Result: Through the arterial blood gas analysis, PCO2 and pH remained within normal levels. PO2 in arterial blood showed enough oxygenation of over 100 mmHg. The level of plasma hemoglobin, which had total cardiopulmonary circulation, steadily increased to 15.87 $\pm$ 5.63 after four hours passed, but remained below 20 mg/㎗. There was no obvious abnormal findings in blood test. Systolic blood pressure which was at 97.5$\pm$5.7 mmHg during the pre-circulation contraction period, was maintained over 100 mmHg as time passed. Moreover, diastolic blood pressure was 72.2 $\pm$ 7.7 mmHg during the expansion period and well kept at the appropriate level with time passing by. Average blood pressure which was 83$\pm$9.2 mmHg before circulation, increased as time passed, while pump flow was maintained over 3.3 L/min. Blood pressure fluctuation during total extracorporeal circulation showed a similar level of arterial blood pressure of pre-circulation heart. Conclusion: In the experiment mentioned above, pulsatile cardiopulmonary machines using the doual-pulsatile structure provided effective pulsatile blood flow with little damage in blood cells, showing excellence in the aspects of hematology and hemodynamic. Therefore, it is expected that the pulsatile cardiopulmonary machine, if it becomes a standard cardiopulmonary machine in all heart operations, will provide stable blood flow to end-organs.

Seismic response characteristics of the hypothetical subsea tunnel in the fault zone with various material properties (다양한 물성의 단층대를 통과하는 가상해저터널의 지진 시 응답 특성)

  • Jang, Dong In;Kwak, Chang-Won;Park, Inn-Joon;Kim, Chang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1061-1071
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    • 2018
  • A subsea tunnel, being a super-sized underground structure must ensure safety at the time of earthquake, as well as at ordinary times. At the time of earthquake, in particular, of a subsea tunnel, a variety of response behaviors are induced owing to relative rigidity to the surrounding ground, or difference of displacement, so that the behavior characteristics can be hardly anticipated. The investigation aims to understand the behavior characteristics switched by earthquake of an imaginary subsea tunnel which passes through a fault zone having different physical properties from those of the surrounding ground. In order to achieve the aim, dynamic response behaviors of a subsea tunnel which passes through a fault zone were observed by means of indoor experiments. For the sake of improved earthquake resistance, a shape of subsea tunnel to which flexible segments have been applied was considered. Afterward, it is believed that a D/B can be established through 3-dimensional earthquake resistance interpretation of various grounds, on the basis of verified results from the experiments and interpretations under various conditions. The present investigation performed 1 g shaking table test in order to verify the result of 3-dimensional earthquake resistance interpretation. A model considering the similitude (1:100) of a scale-down model test was manufactured, and tests for three (3) Cases were carried out. Incident seismic wave was introduced by artificial seismic wave having both long-period and short-period earthquake properties in the horizontal direction which is rectangular to the processing direction of the tunnel, so that a fault zone was modeled. For numerical analysis, elastic modulus of the fault zone was assumed 1/5 value of the modulus of individual grounds surround the tunnel, in order to simulate a fault zone. Resultantly, reduced acceleration was confirmed with increase of physical properties of the fault zone, and the result from the shaking table test showed the same tendency as the result from 3-dimensional interpretation.

A preliminary numerical analysis on the behaviour of tunnel under construction in fracture zone considering seismic load (지진 하중을 고려한 단층파쇄대에서의 시공 중 터널 거동 분석에 관한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Oh, Dong-Wook;Hong, Soon-Kyo;Kim, Dae-Kon;Lee, Yong-Joo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.279-299
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    • 2019
  • Recently occurred earthquake Gyeongju and Pohang served as a momentum to remind that Korean peninsular is not a safety zone from earthquake anymore. The importance of seismic design, therefore, have been realized and researches regarding design response spectrum have been actively carried out by many researchers and engineers. Current tunnel seismic design method is conducted to check safety of tunnel structure by dynamic numerical analysis with condition of completed lining installation, so, it is impossible to consider safety of tunnel behavior under construction. In this study, therefore, dynamic numerical analysis considering seismic wave propagations has been performed after back analysis using results from field monitoring of tunnel under construction in fractured zone and 1st reinforcement (shotcrete, rockbolt) behaviour are analyzed. Waves are classified by period characteristic (short and long). As a result, the difference depending on period characteristic is minor, and increasements of displacement are obtained at crown displacement due to seismic wave is 28~31%, 14~16% at left side of tunnel in the fractured zone, 13~27% at right side of tunnel in the bed rock, respectively. In case of shotcrete axial force is increased 113~115% at tunnel crown, 102% at left side, 106~110% at right side, respectively. Displacement and axial force of rockbolts which are selected by type of anchored grounds (only fractured zone, fractured zone and bed rock, only bedrock) are analyzed, as a result, rockbolt which is anchored to fractured zone and bed rock at the same time are weaker than any other case.

Study on the Design Ideas and Planning Method of the Gameunsa Temple Architecture in Silla (신라감은사건축의 계획이념과 설계기술 고찰)

  • Lee, Jeongmin
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.238-259
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    • 2021
  • Gameunsa Temple is a Buddhist temple from the mid-Silla period. Construction began during the reign of King Munmu and was completed during the second year of King Sinmun's reign (682). This study is based on the results of excavations at the Gameunsa Temple site, exploring the findings presented in the literature in the field of history. This study also investigates the characteristics of the construction plan of Gameunsa Temple and its correlation with the political, social, and religious environment of the time. The results of the study are as follows: (1) First, it is confirmed that all of the buildings in the central block of Gameunsa Temple, such as the pagoda and corridor, the central gate, and the auditorium, fit within 216 cheoks by 216 cheoks (Goguryeo unit of measurement, estimated dimensions 353.30 mm), in terms of the base structure. This fact is highly significant considering the intent of the King in the mid-Silla period to advocate Confucian political ideals at the Donghaegu sites (Daewangam, Igyeondae Pavilion, and Gameunsa Temple), as confirmed by the relationship between the 'Manpasikjeok legend' and the Confucianism of the etiquette and the music; the relationship between the name of the 'Igyeondae Pavilion' and the 'I Ching'; and the relationship between the 'Taegeuk stones excavated from the Gameunsa Temple site' and the 'I Ching.' Additionally, it may be presumed that the number in the "Qian 216" on the Xici shang of 'I Ching' was used as a basis for determining the size of the central block in the early stages of the design of Gameunsa Temple. The layout of the halls and pagodas of Gameunsa Temple was planned to be within a 216-cheok-by-216-cheok area, from the edge to the center, i.e., on the central axis of the temple, in the following order: the central gate and auditorium, the north-south position of Geumdang Hall, the south corridor, the east-west buildings of the auditorium and the winged corridor, the east-west corridor, and the central position of the east-west stone pagoda. (2) Second, the coexistence of Confucianism and Buddhism in the architecture of Gameunsa Temple is based on the understanding of the Golden Light Sutra, originating from the aspirations of King Munmu to obtain the immeasurable merits (陰陽調和時不越序 日月星宿不失常度 風雨隨時無諸災横) and the light of the Buddha, which is metaphorically represented by the sun and the moon illuminating the whole world of Silla, a new nation with a Confucian political ideology, for a long time by "circumambulating the Buddha (旋繞)". It is also presumed that Gyeongheung, who was appointed by King Munmu to be the Guksa in his will and appointed as the Gukro after the enthronement of King Sinmun, was deeply involved in the conception and realization of the syncretism of Confucianism and Buddhism.

Popularization of Marathon through Social Network Big Data Analysis : Focusing on JTBC Marathon (소셜 네트워크 빅데이터 분석을 통한 마라톤 대중화 : JTBC 마라톤대회를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Ji-Su;Kim, Chi-Young
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2020
  • The marathon has long been established as a representative lifestyle for all ages. With the recent expansion of the Work and Life Balance trend across the society, marathon with a relatively low barrier to entry is gaining popularity among young people in their 20s and 30s. By analyzing the issues and related words of the marathon event, we will analyze the spottainment elements of the marathon event that is popular among young people through keywords, and suggest a development plan for the differentiated event. In order to analyze keywords and related words, blogs, cafes and news provided by Naver and Daum were selected as analysis channels, and 'JTBC Marathon' and 'Culture' were extracted as key words for data search. The data analysis period was limited to a three-month period from August 13, 2019 to November 13, 2019, when the application for participation in the 2019 JTBC Marathon was started. For data collection and analysis, frequency and matrix data were extracted through social matrix program Textom. In addition, the degree of the relationship was quantified by analyzing the connection structure and the centrality of the degree of connection between the words. Although the marathon is a personal movement, young people share a common denominator of "running" and form a new cultural group called "running crew" with other young people. Through this, it was found that a marathon competition culture was formed as a festival venue where people could train together, participate together, and escape from the image of a marathon run alone and fight with themselves.

Studies on the Propagation of the Freshwater Prawn, Macrobrachium nipponense (De Haan) Reared in the Laboratory (담수산 징거미새우, Macrobrachium nipponense (De Haan)의 증${\cdot}$양식에 관한 생물학적 기초연구 1. 생식생태에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon Chin-Soo;Lee Bok-Kyu
    • Journal of Aquaculture
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.31-66
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    • 1991
  • This paper deals with the reproductive ecology e.g., number of the pre-spawning moults, morphological characteristics of the pre-spawning moult the common moult, daily ration druing a molting cycle mating behavior, structures of spermatozoa and spermatophore, structure of vas deferens, mechanisms of the oviposition and brooding into the egg-chambers, a suitable time for the artificial mating and fertilization, time sequence of the oviposition and brooding into egg-chambers from the copulation, responses to temperature and chlorinity on the egg development and hatching, effect of temperatures on duration of egg development, physical mechanism of the egg hatching, to make an attempt for the artificial spawning and brooding to establish a suitable system of the artificial seedling-production for the aquaculture. 1. Females molted commonly $8{\~}10$ times at an interval of $17{\~}18$ days at $28^{\circ}C,\;3.26\~4.35\%_{\circ}$ while the prespawning moltings were $4{\~}5$ times at an interval of $13{\~}14$ days. The suitable state for artificial copulation was within 14 hours elapsed from the prespawning moltings (most suitable state was within 8 hours). Males discharged a gelatinous spermatophore and placed it on the females sternum during copulation. Oviposition was seen $6{\~}17$ hours after copulation. External fertilization was considered to take place at oviposition. Fertilized eggs held in egg-chambers forming between pleopods were about $5000{\~}6000$ in females those sizes about 6.5 cm in body length. 2. Eggs immediately after oviposition were elliptic shape, measuring $0.58{\times}0.48$ mm up to hatching. Their sizes increased with egg development and finally reached $0.85{\times}0.54$ mm up to hatching. The relationship between the long axis of the egg(Y in U) and days elapsed(X) was expressed as Y= 5.60194 + 0.007358X. The eggs performed superficial cleavage and their cleavage furrows became visible at the 4-daughter-nucleus stage. The eggs showed normal development up to hatching at water temperature range of $22{\~}30^{\circ}C$ (optimum temperature : $26{\~}28^{\circ}C$) and at chlorinity range of $0.00\~6.64\%_{\circ}$ (optimun chlorinity : $2.21{\%}_{\circ}$). The relationship between incubation period (Y in days) and water temperature(X in $^{\circ}C$) could be expressed as Y= 50.803-1.3555X. The eggs hatched $12{\~}13$ days after oviposition at $28.0{\~}28.6^{\circ}C$ 3. The pre-spawning moltings were appreciably different in the morphologic structure from those of common moltings. Breeding setae and dresses were formed on the thoracic regions, abdominal epimerae and the bases of the first to fourth pleopods in order to prepare and support oviposition, transfering and supporting eggs in egg-chambers up to hatching. These supplementary breeding organs were observed only at reproductive seasons.

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A Study on the Forest Ecology in Young-il Soil Erosion Control District (영일사방사업지(迎日砂防事業地)의 삼림생태학적(森林生態學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Hong, Sung Cheon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.58 no.1
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 1982
  • The large devastated land in Young-il district, Gyeongsangbusdo, had been existed for a long time, and the Korean government had invested 3.8 billion won to control soil erosion of the area for 5 years from 1973 to 1977. This research was to investigate the changes of the soil profile and vegetation structure in the 3rd, 6th and 9th years since soil erosion control had implemented. The results obtained in this study are as follows: 1) The thickness of the litter layer (L), the fermentation layer(F), the humified layer(H) and the surface soil layer(S) increased with increasing years after implements soil erosion control project had started. 2) The H layer was not showed for the three years since the project had implemented but was in the sixty year. 3) The soil chemical elements including the organic matter and total nitrogen increased with increasing years after the project had started, the amounts of organic matter and total nitrogen were three and seven times higher respectively in the nineth year after project had started. The amounts of organic matter and total nitrogen were three and seven times higher, respectively in the nineth year after project started than those before. 4) Among the grasses and trees which had been sowed or planted during project period, the summed domination ratios for arundinella hirta var ciliare. Themeda japonica, Cymbopogen goeringi and Lespedeza bicolor decreased rapidly, while those for Robinia pesudoacacia and Pinus densiflora increased with increasing years after the project started. 5) The appearance of Quercus seedlings suited to this area and Pinus densiflora seedling which is a subclimax species increased with increasing years after the project started.

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