• Title/Summary/Keyword: logistic equation

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Modeling for Prediction of Potato Late Blight (Phytophthora infestans) (감자역병 진전도 예측모형 작성)

  • 안재훈;함영일;신관용
    • Korean Journal Plant Pathology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.331-338
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    • 1998
  • To develop the model for prediction of potato late blight progress, the relationship between severity index of potato late blight transformed by the logit and Gompit transformation function and cumulative severity value (CSV) processing weather data during growing period in Taegwallyeong alpine area, 1975 to 1992 were examined. When logistic model and Gompertz model were compared by determining goodness of fit for progressive degree of late blight using CSV as independent variable, the coefficients of determination were higher as 0.742 in the logistic model than 0.680 in the Gompertz model. Parameters in logistic model were composed of progressive rate and initial value of logistic model. Initial value was calculated in -3.664. The progressive rate of potato late blight was 0.137 in cv. Superior, 0.136 in cv. Irish Cobbler, and 0.070 in cv. Jopung without fungicide sprays. According to in crease of the number of spray times the progressive rate was lowered, was 0.020 in cv. Superior under the conventional program of fungicide sprays, 10 times sprays during cropping season. Equation of progressive rate, b1=0.0088 ACSV-0.033 (R2=0.976), was written by examining the relationship between the parameters of progressive rate of late blight and the average CSV (ACSV) quantifing weather information. By estimating parameters of logistic function, model able to describe the late blight progress of potato, cv. Superior was formulated in Y=4/(1+39.0·exp((0.0088 ACSV-0.033)·CSV).

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Estimation of growth curve in Hanwoo steers using progeny test records

  • Yun, Jae-Woong;Park, Se-Yeong;Park, Hu-Rak;Eum, Seung-Hoon;Roh, Seung-Hee;Seo, Jakyeom;Cho, Seong-Keun;Kim, Byeong-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.623-633
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    • 2016
  • A total of 6,973 steer growth records of Hanwoo breeding bull's progeny test data collected from 1989 to 2015 were analyzed to identify the most appropriate growth curve among three growth curve models (Gompertz, Logistic and von Bertalanffy). The Gompertz growth curve model equation was $W_t=990.5e^{{-2.7479e}^{-0.00241t}}$, the Logistic growth curve model equation was $W_t=772(1+8.3314e^{-0.00475t})^{-1}$, and the von Bertalanffy growth curve model equation was $W_t=1,196.4(1-0.646e^{-0.00162t})^3$. The Gompertz model parameters A, b, and k were estimated to be $990.5{\pm}10.27$, $2.7479{\pm}0.0068$, and $0.00241{\pm}0.000028$, respectively. The inflection point age was estimated to be 421 days and the weight of inflection point was 365.3 kg. The Logistic model parameters A, b, and k were estimated to be $772.0{\pm}4.12$, $8.3314{\pm}0.0453$, and $0.00475{\pm}0.000033$, respectively. The inflection point age was estimated to be 445 days and the weight of inflection point was 385.0 kg. The von Bertalanffy model parameters A, b, and k were estimated to be $1196.4{\pm}18.39$, $0.646{\pm}0.0010$, and $0.00162{\pm}0.000027$, respectively. The inflection point age was estimated to be 405 days and the weight of inflection point was 352.0 kg. Mature body weight of the von Bertalanffy model was 1196.4 kg, the Gompertz model was 990.5 kg, and the Logistic model was 772.0 kg. The difference between actual and estimated weights was similar in the Logistic model and the von Bertalanffy model. The difference between market weight and estimated market weight was the lowest in the Gompertz model. The growth curve using the von Bertalanffy model showed the lowest mean square error.

Nonlinear Regression Analysis to Determine Infection Models of Colletotrichum acutatum Causing Anthracnose of Chili Pepper Using Logistic Equation

  • Kang, Wee-Soo;Yun, Sung-Chul;Park, Eun-Woo
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2010
  • A logistic model for describing combined effects of both temperature and wetness period on appressorium formation was developed using laboratory data on percent appressorium formation of Colletotrichum acutatum. In addition, the possible use of the logistic model for forecasting infection risks was also evaluated as compared with a first-order linear model. A simplified equilibrium model for enzymatic reactions was applied to obtain a temperature function for asymptote parameter (A) of logistic model. For the position (B) and the rate (k) parameters, a reciprocal model was used to calculate the respective temperature functions. The nonlinear logistic model described successfully the response of appressorium formation to the combined effects of temperature and wetness period. Especially the temperature function for asymptote parameter A reflected the response of upper limit of appressorium formation to temperature, which showed the typical temperature response of enzymatic reactions in the cells. By having both temperature and wetness period as independent variables, the nonlinear logistic model can be used to determine the length of wetness periods required for certain levels of appressorium formation under different temperature conditions. The infection model derived from the nonlinear logistic model can be used to calculate infection risks using hourly temperature and wetness period data monitored by automated weather stations in the fields. Compared with the nonlinear infection model, the linear infection model always predicted a shorter wetness period for appressorium formation, and resulted in significantly under- and over-estimation of response at low and high temperatures, respectively.

Statistical Evaluation of Sigmoidal and First-Order Kinetic Equations for Simulating Methane Production from Solid Wastes (폐기물로부터 메탄발생량 예측을 위한 Sigmoidal 식과 1차 반응식의 통계학적 평가)

  • Lee, Nam-Hoon;Park, Jin-Kyu;Jeong, Sae-Rom;Kang, Jeong-Hee;Kim, Kyung
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this research was to evaluate the suitability of sigmoidal and firstorder kinetic equations for simulating the methane production from solid wastes. The sigmoidal kinetic equations used were modified Gompertz and Logistic equations. Statistical criteria used to evaluate equation performance were analysis of goodness-of-fit (Residual sum of squares, Root mean squared error and Akaike's Information Criterion). Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) was employed to compare goodness-of-fit of equations with same and different numbers of parameters. RSS and RMSE were decreased for first-order kinetic equation with lag-phase time, compared to the first-order kinetic equation without lag-phase time. However, first-order kinetic equations had relatively higher AIC than the sigmoidal kinetic equations. It seemed that the sigmoidal kinetic equations had better goodness-of-fit than the first-order kinetic equations in order to simulate the methane production.

A Proposal of the Evaluation Method for Rock Slope Stability Using Logistic Regression Analysis (로지스틱 회귀분석을 통한 암반사면의 안정성 평가법 제안)

  • 이용희;김종열
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2004
  • Through the many site investigations, different methods for evaluating stability of rock slopes have been proposed. Those methods, however, may lead to different results depending on the subjective judgments associated with the selection of the evaluation items and the application of weighting factor. Accordingly, binary logistic regression analysis was carried out to ensure fair appliction of the weighting factor, leading to an equation for evaluating the stability of rock slopes.

Estimation of the exponentiated half-logistic distribution based on multiply Type-I hybrid censoring

  • Jeon, Young Eun;Kang, Suk-Bok
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.47-64
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we derive some estimators of the scale parameter of the exponentiated half-logistic distribution based on the multiply Type-I hybrid censoring scheme. We assume that the shape parameter λ is known. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter σ. The scale parameter is estimated by approximating the given likelihood function using two different Taylor series expansions since the likelihood equation is not explicitly solved. We also obtain Bayes estimators using prior distribution. To obtain the Bayes estimators, we use the squared error loss function and general entropy loss function (shape parameter q = -0.5, 1.0). We also derive interval estimation such as the asymptotic confidence interval, the credible interval, and the highest posterior density interval. Finally, we compare the proposed estimators in the sense of the mean squared error through Monte Carlo simulation. The average length of 95% intervals and the corresponding coverage probability are also obtained.

Comparison of the Bass Model and the Logistic Model from the Point of the Diffusion Theory (확산이론 관점에서 로지스틱 모형과 Bass 모형의 비교)

  • Hong, Jung-Sik;Koo, Hoon-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.113-125
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    • 2012
  • The logistic model and the Bass model have diverse names and formulae in diffusion theory. This diversity makes users or readers confused while it also contributes to the flexibility of modeling. The method of handling the integration constant, which is generated in process of deriving the closed form solution of the differential equation for a diffusion model, results in two different 'actual' models. We rename the actual four models and propose the usage of the models with respect to the purpose of model applications. The application purpose would be the explanation of historical diffusion pattern or the forecasting of future demand. Empirical validation with 86 historical diffusion data shows that misuse of the models can draw improper conclusions for the explanation of historical diffusion pattern.

Evaluation and Comparison of the Solubility Models for Solute in Monosolvents

  • Min-jie Zhi;Wan-feng Chen;Yang-bo Xi
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2024
  • The solubility of Cloxacillin sodium in ethanol, 1-propanol, isopropanol, and acetone solutions was measured at different temperatures. The melting property was also tested by using a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC). Then, the solubility data were fitted using Apelblat equation and λh equation, respectively. The Wilson model and NRTL model were not utilized to correlate the test data, since Cloxacillin sodium will decompose directly after melting. For comparison purposes, the four empirical models, i.e., Apelblat equation, λh equation, Wilson model and NRTL Model, were evaluated by using 1155 solubility curves of 103 solutes tested under different monosolvents and temperatures. The comparison results indicate that the Apelblat equation is superior to the others. Furthermore, a new method (named the calculation method) for determining the Apelblat equation using only three data points was proposed to solve the problem that there may not be enough solute in the determination of solubility. The log-logistic distribution function was used to further capture the trend of the correlation and to make better quantitative comparison between predicted data and the experimental ones for the Apelblat equation determined by different methods (fitting method or calculation method). It is found that the proposed calculation method not only greatly reduces the number of test data points, but also has satisfactory prediction accuracy.

Estimation of Compressive Strength of Fly Ash Concrete subjected to High Temperature (고온조건하에서 플라이애시를 사용한 콘크리트의 압축강도증진 해석)

  • Han Min-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.6 no.3 s.21
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    • pp.99-105
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, the estimation of compressive strength of concrete incorporating fly ash subjected to high temperature is discussed. Ordinary Portland cement and fly ash cement(30% of fly ash) were used, respectively. Water to binder ration ranging from 30% to 60% and curing temperature ranging from $20^{\circ}C{\sim}65^{\circ}C$ were also adopted for the experimental parameters. According to results, at the high temperature, FAC had higher strength development at early age than OPC concrete and it kept its high strength development at later age due to accelerated pozzolanic reaction subjected to high temperature. For strength estimation, Logistic model based on maturity equation and Carino model based on equivalent age were applied to verify the availability of estimation model. It shows that fair agreements between calculated values and measured values were obtained evaluating compressive strength with logistic curve. The application of logistic model at high temperature had remarkable deviations in the same maturity. Whereas, the application of Carino model showed good agreements between calculated values and measured ones regardless of type of cement and W/B. However, some correction factors should be considered to enhance the accuracy of strength estimation of concrete.

Kinetics and Modelling of Cell Growth and Substrate Uptake in Centella asiatica Cell Culture

  • Omar, Rozita;Abdullah, M.A.;Hasan, M.A.;Rosfarizan, M.;Marziah, M.
    • Biotechnology and Bioprocess Engineering:BBE
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.223-229
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    • 2006
  • In this study, we have conducted kinetics and modelling studies of Centella asiatica cell growth and substrate uptake, in an attempt to evaluate cell growth for a better understanding and control of the process. In our bioreactor cultivation experiment, we observed a growth rate of 0.18/day, a value only 20% higher than was seen in the shake flask cultivation trial. However, the observed maximum cell dry weight in the shake flask, 10.5g/L, was 14% higher than was achieved in the bioreactor. Ninety seven percentage confidence was achieved via the fitting of three unstructured growth models; the Monod, Logistic, and Gompertz equations, to the cell growth data. The Monod equation adequately described cell growth in both cultures. The specific growth rate, however, was not effectively predicted with the Logistic and Gompertz equations, which resulted in deviations of up to 73 and 393%, respectively. These deviations in the Logistic and Gompertz models may be attributable to the fact that these models were developed for substrate-independent growth and fungi growth, respectively.