• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.34-41
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• 2008

미래 연안 생태환경변화 예측을 위한 기후변화에 따른 수온변화 예측이 필요하며, 연안 수온변화는 GCM 자료에서 제공하는 미래 기온변화 예측자료를 국지적인 기온자료로 Downscaling 기법을 적용하여 사용할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 선형회귀분석기법을 이용하여 2000년${\sim}$2005년 우리나라 평균기온자료를 연안해역의 국지적인 기온자료로 Downscaling 하는 방법을 제안하고, 제안한 방법의 검증을 수행하였다. Downscaling 방법의 보정과정에서의 RMS오차 평균은 1.584정도이며, 2006년${\sim}$2007년 자료를 이용한 검정과정에서의 RMS 오차 평균은 1.675, 1.448 정도로 추정오차는 보정과정에서의 오차수준을 유지하고 있는 것으로 파악되었다. 또한, NSC 값도 보정과정에서는 0.962, 2006년${\sim}$2007년 자료를 이용한 검정과정에서는 0.955, 0.963으로 보정과정에서의 일치수준을 유지하고 있는 것으로 파악되어 선형회귀분석 기법을 이용한 우리나라 연안의 국지적인 기온은 RMS 오차 $1.0{\sim}2.0^{\circ}C$ 수준으로 전국 평균기온을 이용하여 추정할 수 있다.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.219-228
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• 2018

본 연구는 수원시 호매실 택지개발지구를 대상으로 토지피복지도와 도시기후 유형 분류 방법인 Local Climate Zone (LCZ)을 활용하여 기후적 특성에 따라 도시지역을 세분화하고, 각각의 지역에 대한 여름철 폭염 시 열환경 특성을 확인하고자 하루 중 가장 더운 낮 시간의 열쾌적성을 측정했다. 측정 결과 산림과 논은 중간 열스트레스 값을, 도시공원은 강한 열스트레스 값을 나타냈으며, 기타 시가화 지역은 극한 열스트레스 값을 나타냈다. 이러한 결과는 도시지역의 유형별 기후적 특성과 차이를 확인하고, 도시계획 수립 시 계획단계에서부터 폭염을 대비한 토지이용의 구상 및 그린인프라의 효율적인 배치를 통해 열환경 개선을 위한 정책적 활용 가능성이 있음을 보여주었다.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.228-240
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• 2023

Growing complexity in ecosystem structure and functions, under impacts of climate and land-use changes, requires interdisciplinary understandings of processes and the whole-system, and accurate estimates of the changing functions. In the last three decades, observation networks for biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem functions under climate change, have been developed by interested scientists, research institutions and universities. In this paper we will review (1) the development and on-going activities of those observation networks, (2) some outcomes from forest carbon cycle studies at our super-site "Takayama site" in Japan, and (3) a few ideas how we connect in-situ and satellite observations as well as fill observation gaps in the Asia-Oceania region. There have been many intensive research and networking efforts to promote investigations for ecosystem change and functions (e.g., Long-Term Ecological Research Network), measurements of greenhouse gas, heat, and water fluxes (flux network), and biodiversity from genetic to ecosystem level (Biodiversity Observation Network). Combining those in-situ field research data with modeling analysis and satellite remote sensing allows the research communities to up-scale spatially from local to global, and temporally from the past to future. These observation networks oftern use different methodologies and target different scientific disciplines. However growing needs for comprehensive observations to understand the response of biodiversity and ecosystem functions to climate and societal changes at local, national, regional, and global scales are providing opportunities and expectations to network these networks. Among the challenges to produce and share integrated knowledge on climate, ecosystem functions and biodiversity, filling scale-gaps in space and time among the phenomena is crucial. To showcase such efforts, interdisciplinary research at 'Takayama super-site' was reviewed by focusing on studies on forest carbon cycle and phenology. A key approach to respond to multidisciplinary questions is to integrate in-situ field research, ecosystem modeling, and satellite remote sensing by developing cross-scale methodologies at long-term observation field sites called "super-sites". The research approach at 'Takayama site' in Japan showcases this response to the needs of multidisciplinary questions and further development of terrestrial ecosystem research to address environmental change issues from local to national, regional and global scales.

• 환경정책연구
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.73-91
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• 2011

2000년대 초반의 동아시아 수산활동을 기후변화와 사회경제적 개발과 연관하여 연구하였다. 세계 인구의 약 1/3이 동아시아 지역에 살고 있는데, 이들은 많은 수산물을 생산하고, 소비하며, 국제무역에 기여하고 있다. 지역적으로, 전지구적으로 진행되고 있는 기후변화와 더불어 해수의 온난화 및 산성화는 수산생물과 수산업에 심대한 영향을 미칠 것이다. 동아시아 지역의 잦은 태풍은 연안의 사회집단에 막대한 손실과 희생을 유발할 것이며, 이러한 환경의 변화속도는 우리가 효과적으로 대응하기에 벅찰 정도로 빠르게 진행 중이다. 과학적 활동은 기후변화의 상황에서 발생하는 문제점들을 찾아내고, 더 나아가 효과적인 해결책을 만들기 위한 기본 지침을 제공하여야 한다. 또한 수산관리 계획은 기후변화와 더불어 사회체제의 변화를 고려하여 수립되어야 한다. 그러므로 이 해역에서 공동과학연구를 추진하고, 수산자원을 보존하고 관리하는 국제적 공조체제를 구축하여야 한다는 제안은 매우 논리적이다.

• 대기
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.25-35
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• 2018

This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.

• 대기
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.391-401
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• 2019

This study first investigates the changes of the mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia (EA) under stabilized 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming conditions above preindustrial levels provided by HAPPI project. Here, five model with 925 members for 10-year historical period (2006~2015) and 1.5/2.0℃ future warming scenarios (2091~2100) have been used and monthly based data have been analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution fields over EA and domain averaged variables in HAPPI 1.5/2.0℃ hindcast simulations are comparable to observations. It is found that the magnitude of mean temperature warming in EA and Korea is similar to the global mean, but for extreme temperatures local higher warming trend for minimum temperature is significant. In terms of precipitation, most subregion in EA will see more increased precipitation under 1.5/2.0℃ warming compared to the global mean. These attribute for probability density function of analyzed variables to get wider with increasing mean values in 1.5/2.0℃ warming conditions. As the result of vulnerability of 0.5℃ additional warming from 1.5 to 2.0℃, 0.5℃ additional warming contributes to the increases in extreme events and especially the impact over South Korea is slightly larger than EA. Therefore, limiting global warming by 0.5℃ can help avoid the increases in extreme temperature and precipitation events in terms of intensity and frequency.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.281-290
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• 2011

This study examined the change in sea surface temperature (SST) around the Korean peninsula since industrialization at year 1880, and its possible causes using observation based data from the Hadley Center, the Goddard Institute of Space Studies, and National Climate Data Center. Since year 1880, There have been multi-decadal fluctuations with a gradual reduction from 1880 to around 1940, and from 1950-1980. There has then been a marked increase from 1940-1950, and from 1980 to the present. The ocean surface warming is larger during the boreal winter than summer, and greater in the south. The multi-decadal SST fluctuations around the Korean Peninsula are largely consistent with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which fluctuates with periods of about 20-50 years. Secondly, the El Ni$\tilde{n}$o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whose long period component moves along with the PDO, appears to influence the SST near the Korean Peninsula, especially in recent decades. Overall, the SST around the Korean Peninsula has warmed since year 1880 by about $1^{\circ}C$, which is about twice the global-mean ocean surface warming. This long-term warming is aligned with an increase in greenhouse gas concentration, as well as local factors such as the PDO.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제30권5호
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• pp.423-433
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• 2014

This study examined the short-term variability of $CO_2$ concentrations measured at the Gosan site ($33^{\circ}17^{\prime}N$, $126^{\circ}10^{\prime}E$) in Jeju, Korea for the last 9 years from 2002 to 2010. The weekly distribution shows higher $CO_2$ concentrations during weekends than weekdays which implies the impact of local emissions because Jeju Island is one of the top tourist attraction in Korea. In diurnal variation, $CO_2$ concentration reached the maximum at 6 am and the minimum at 1 pm. The high $CO_2$ concentrations were mostly associated with lower wind speed (below 4 m/s) and easterlies, which was typical of summer night. In other seasons, however, the high concentrations were encountered under strong westerlies (8~16 m/s), which implies the influence of Chinese outflows. $CO_2$ concentrations were found to be highly correlated with meteorological parameters including wind speed, temperature, humidity, and solar radiation except for winter.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
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• pp.458-458
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• 2012

Climate extreme variability is a major cause of disaster such as flood and drought types occurred in Korea and its effects is also more severe damage in last decades which can be danger mature events in the future. The main aim of this study was to assess the effectives of climate change on drought for an agriculture as Nakdong basin in Korea using climate change data in the future from data of General Circulation Models (GCM) of ECHO-G, with the developing countries like Korea, the developed climate scenario of medium-high greenhouse gas emission was proposed of the SRES A2. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied for drought evaluation. The drought index (SPI) applied for sites in catchment and it is evaluated accordingly by current and future precipitation data, specific as determined for data from nine precipitation stations with data covering the period 1980-2009 for current and three periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 for future; time scales of 3month were used for evaluating. The results determined drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. The drought in catchment act intensively occurred in March, April, May and November and months of drought extreme often appeared annual in May and November; drought frequent is a non-uniform cyclic pattern in an irregular repetitive manner, but results showed drought intensity increasing in future periods. The results indicated also spatial point of view, the SPI analysis showed two of drought extents; local drought acting on one or more one of sites and entire drought as cover all of site in catchment. In addition, the meteorology drought simulation maps of spatial drought representation were carried out with GIS software to generate for some drought extreme years in study area. The method applied in this study are expected to be appropriately applicable to the evaluation of the effects of extreme hydrologic events, the results also provide useful for the drought warning and sustainable water resources management strategies and policy in agriculture basins.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.154-154
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• 2018

To interpret the climate projections for the future as well as present, recognition of the consequences of the climate internal variability and quantification its uncertainty play a vital role. The Korean Peninsula belongs to the Far East Asian Monsoon region and its rainfall characteristics are very complex from time and space perspective. Its internal variability is expected to be large, but this variability has not been completely investigated to date especially using models of high temporal resolutions. Due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections, several studies adopted dynamic and statistical downscaling approaches to infer meterological forcing from climate change projections at local spatial scales and fine temporal resolutions. In this study, stochastic downscaling methodology was adopted to downscale daily GCM resolutions to hourly time scale using an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). After extracting factors of change from the GCM realizations, these were applied to the climatic statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series which can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. Further, 30 ensemble members of hourly precipitation were generated for each selected station to quantify uncertainty. Spatial map was generated to visualize as separated zones formed through K-means cluster algorithm which region is more inconsistent as compared to the climatological norm or in which region the probability of occurrence of the extremes event is high. The results showed that the stations located near the coastal regions are more uncertain as compared to inland regions. Such information will be ultimately helpful for planning future adaptation and mitigation measures against extreme events.