• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.493-510
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• 2020

Purpose: As of July 31, there were 14,336 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea, including 301 deaths. Since the daily confirmed number of cases hit 909 on February 29, the spread of the disease had gradually decreased due to the active implementation of preventive control interventions, and the daily confirmed number had finally recorded a single digit on April 19. Since May, however, the disease has re-emerged and retaining after June. In order to eradicate the disease, it is necessary to suggest suitable forward preventive strategies by predicting future infectivity of the disease based on the cases so far. Therefore, in this study, we aim to evaluate the transmission potential of the disease in early phases by estimating basic reproduction number and assess the preventive control measures through effective reproduction number. Methods: We used publicly available cases and deaths data regarding COVID-19 in South Korea as of July 31. Using ensemble model integrated stochastic linear birth model and deterministic linear growth model, the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number were estimated. Results: Estimated basic reproduction number is 3.1 (95% CI: 3.0-3.2). Effective reproduction number was the highest with 7 on February 15, decreased as of April 20. Since then, the value is gradually increased to more than unity. Conclusion: Preventive policy such as wearing a mask and physical distancing campaigns in the early phase of the outbreak was fairly implemented. However, the infection potential increased due to weakening government policy on May 6. Our results suggest that it seems necessary to implement a stronger policy than the current level.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1367-1375
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• 2015

Consider the linear growth models for longitudinal data analysis. Several kind of linear growth models are selected such as time-effect and random-effect models as well as a dummy variable included model. In this work, simulation data are generated with normality assumption, and both binormal ROC curve and AUC are obtained and compared for various linear growth models. It is found that ROC curves have different shapes and AUC increase slowly, as values of the covariance increase and the time passes for random-effect models. On the other hand, AUC increases very fast as values of covariance decrease. When the covariance has positive value, we explored that the variances of random-effect models increase and the increment of AUC is smaller than that of AUC for time-effect models. And the increment of AUC for time-effect models is larger than the increment for random-effect models.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.27 no.7
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• pp.1013-1018
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• 2014

In this study, we developed kinetic models to predict the growth of pathogenic Escherichia coli on cheeses during storage at constant and changing temperatures. A five-strain mixture of pathogenic E. coli was inoculated onto natural cheeses (Brie and Camembert) and processed cheeses (sliced Mozzarella and sliced Cheddar) at 3 to 4 log CFU/g. The inoculated cheeses were stored at 4, 10, 15, 25, and $30^{\circ}C$ for 1 to 320 h, with a different storage time being used for each temperature. Total bacteria and E. coli cells were enumerated on tryptic soy agar and MacConkey sorbitol agar, respectively. E. coli growth data were fitted to the Baranyi model to calculate the maximum specific growth rate (${\mu}_{max}$; log CFU/g/h), lag phase duration (LPD; h), lower asymptote (log CFU/g), and upper asymptote (log CFU/g). The kinetic parameters were then analyzed as a function of storage temperature, using the square root model, polynomial equation, and linear equation. A dynamic model was also developed for varying temperature. The model performance was evaluated against observed data, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated. At $4^{\circ}C$, E. coli cell growth was not observed on any cheese. However, E. coli growth was observed at $10{\circ}C$ to $30^{\circ}C$C with a ${\mu}_{max}$ of 0.01 to 1.03 log CFU/g/h, depending on the cheese. The ${\mu}_{max}$ values increased as temperature increased, while LPD values decreased, and ${\mu}_{max}$ and LPD values were different among the four types of cheese. The developed models showed adequate performance (RMSE = 0.176-0.337), indicating that these models should be useful for describing the growth kinetics of E. coli on various cheeses.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.30 no.1_2
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• pp.183-200
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• 2012

A two-strain epidemic model with an age structure mutation and varying population is studied. By means of the spectrum theory of bounded linear operator in functional analysis, the reproductive numbers according to the strains, which associates with the growth rate ${\lambda}^*$ of total population size are obtained. The asymptotic stability of the steady states are obtained under some sufficient conditions.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.51-68
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• 1994

Various growth models were each fitted onto the data sets in an attempt to determine which growth models achieved the best forecasts for differing types of growth data. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others in predicting future levels of growth. It is recommened that Weibull and the Gompertz growth curve be considered along with Pearl model by those industries presently considering the implementation of substitution analysis in their life analysis. In the early stage of growth, linear estimation should suffice to give reasonable forecasts. In the latter stage, however, as more data become availavle, nonlinear estimation should be used.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.149-160
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• 1995

We consider the problem of optimal adaptive estiamtion of the euclidean parameter vector $\theta$ of the univariate non-linerar autogressive time series model ${X_t}$ which is defined by the following system of stochastic difference equations ; $X_t = \sum^p_{i=1} \theta_i \cdot T_i(X_{t-1})+e_t, t=1, \cdots, n$, where $\theta$ is the unknown parameter vector which descrives the deterministic dynamics of the stochastic process ${X_t}$ and ${e_t}$ is the sequence of white noises with unknown density $f(\cdot)$. Under some general growth conditions on $T_i(\cdot)$ which guarantee ergodicity of the process, we construct a sequence of adaptive estimatros which is locally asymptotic minimax (LAM) efficient and also attains the least possible covariance matrix among all regular estimators for arbitrary symmetric density.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.86-94
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• 2009

A three dimensional rock joint element was developed considering fracture mechanics and subcritical crack growth to simulate non-linear behavior and the progressive failure of rock joints. Using this 3-D joint element, joint shear tests of rock discontinuities were simulated by a numerical method. The asperities on the joint surface began to fail at stress levels lower than the rock fracture toughness and continued progressively due to subcritical crack growth. As a result of progressive failing in each and every asperity, the joint showed non-linear stress-time behavior including stress hardening/softening and the reaching of a residual stress.

• Proceedings of the Korea Association of Crystal Growth Conference
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• 1998.06a
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• pp.169-172
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• 1998

A phyaical model of the Czochralski method for silicon single crystals is designed to measure the change of velocities and temperature profilles in the melt. Wood's metal(Bi 50%, Pb 26.7%, Sn 13.3%, Cd 10%, m.p. 70℃) is used to simulate the silicon melt in the crucible. To measure the local velocity change, electromagnetic probe is adopted as a velocity sensor. The output voltage of the sensor shows linear relationship to the velocity of the melt.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.422-433
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• 2017

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has several advantages over conventional remote sensing techniques. They can acquire high-resolution images quickly and repeatedly. And with a comparatively lower flight altitude, they can obtain good quality images even in cloudy weather. In this paper, we developed for estimating garlic growth at field scale model in major cultivation regions. We used the $NDVI_{UAV}$ that reflects the crop conditions, and seven meteorological elements for 3 major cultivation regions from 2015 to 2017. For this study, UAV imagery was taken at Taean, Changnyeong, and Hapcheon regions nine times from early February to late June during the garlic growing season. Four plant growth parameters, plant height (P.H.), leaf number (L.N.), plant diameter (P.D.), and fresh weight (F.W.) were measured for twenty plants per plot for each field campaign. The multiple linear regression models were suggested by using backward elimination and stepwise selection in the extraction of independent variables. As a result, model of cold type explain 82.1%, 65.9%, 64.5%, and 61.7% of the P.H., F.W., L.N., P.D. with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.98 cm, 5.91 g, 1.05, and 3.43 cm. Especially, model of warm type explain 92.9%, 88.6%, 62.8%, 54.6% of the P.H., P.D., L.N., F.W. with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 16.41 cm, 9.08 cm, 1.12, 19.51 g. The spatial distribution map of garlic growth was in strong agreement with the field measurements in terms of field variation and relative numerical values when $NDVI_{UAV}$ was applied to multiple linear regression models. These results will also be useful for determining the UAV multi-spectral imagery necessary to estimate growth parameters of garlic.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.109-114
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• 2020

The aim of this study is to develop basic artificial neural network models in forecasting the in-sample gross domestic product (GDP) of Malaysia. GDP is one of the main indicators in presenting the macro economic condition of a country as set by the world authority bodies such as the World Bank. Hence, this study uses an artificial neural network-based approach to make predictions concerning the economic growth of Malaysia. This method has been proposed due to its ability to overcome multicollinearity among variables, as well as the ability to cope with non-linear problems in Malaysia's growth data. The selected inputs and outputs are based on the previous literatures as well as the economic growth theory. Therefore, the selected inputs are exports, imports, private consumption, government expenditure, consumer price index (CPI), inflation rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and money supply, which includes M1 and M2. Whilst, the output is real gross domestic product growth rate. The results of this study showed that the neural network method gives the smallest value of mean error which is 0.81 percent with a total difference of 0.70 percent. This implies that the neural network model is appropriate and is a relevant method in forecasting the economic growth of Malaysia.