• Title/Summary/Keyword: likely scenario

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Developing a Method to Define Mountain Search Priority Areas Based on Behavioral Characteristics of Missing Persons

  • Yoo, Ho Jin;Lee, Jiyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.293-302
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    • 2019
  • In mountain accident events, it is important for the search team commander to determine the search area in order to secure the Golden Time. Within this period, assistance and treatment to the concerned individual will most likely prevent further injuries and harm. This paper proposes a method to determine the search priority area based on missing persons behavior and missing persons incidents statistics. GIS (Geographic Information System) and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) are integrated by applying WLC (Weighted Linear Combination) techniques. Missing persons were classified into five types, and their behavioral characteristics were analyzed to extract seven geographic analysis factors. Next, index values were set up for each missing person and element according to the behavioral characteristics, and the raster data generated by multiplying the weight of each element are superimposed to define models to select search priority areas, where each weight is calculated from the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) through a pairwise comparison method obtained from search operation experts. Finally, the model generated in this study was applied to a missing person case through a virtual missing scenario, the priority area was selected, and the behavioral characteristics and topographical characteristics of the missing persons were compared with the selected area. The resulting analysis results were verified by mountain rescue experts as 'appropriate' in terms of the behavior analysis, analysis factor extraction, experimental process, and results for the missing persons.

An Analysis of Working Hours by Type of Sprinkler Head Used at Indoor Gymnasiums

  • Ahn, Jae-Cheon;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.117-123
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to analyze working hours of sprinkler heads when a fire occurs at an indoor gymnasium while sprinkler heads are installed in division of standard response type, special response type, and earlier response type. The fire scenario was designed under the assumption that the fire started from overheating of a heater in the indoor gymnasium has transferred on to a couch to spread. The analysis on the operation time of the standard response type sprinkler head, the special response type sprinkler head and the early response sprinkler head was conducted. The result showed that, in case of fire in a gymnasium, the time for opening of the heat sensor due to the heat from the fire varies by the type of the sprinkler head. When a special response type sprinkler is installed, it worked below the assessment standards. When an early response sprinkler head is installed, it worked appropriately according to assessment standards. Based on the results, we found that sprinkler heads will work properly when installed according to design relevant to laws and regulations. This means that there is a limit in installation of sprinkler heads based on the existing law-based design as for indoor gymnasiums. Again, we conclude that if sprinkler heads are installed based on design made through laws and regulations, more time will be needed for operation, making it highly likely to fail to stop a fire at an earlier point of time.

The COVID-19 pandemic: an unprecedented tragedy in the battle against childhood obesity

  • Storz, Maximilian Andreas
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.63 no.12
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    • pp.477-482
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    • 2020
  • The childhood obesity pandemic has emerged as an important public health problem in many countries. Obese children are likely to become obese adults, and adult obesity is associated with an increased risk of morbidity. Therefore, controlling the childhood obesity epidemic has become a top public health priority worldwide. The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may significantly impede this important mission and constitute an unprecedented tragedy in the global battle against childhood obesity. This manuscript presents evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic will aggravate the childhood obesity epidemic and lead to significant weight gain in school children by creating an unprecedented obesogenic environment. Within the last few months, many countries took uncompromising measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including school closures and quarantine. While these steps are often necessary to ensure infection control, they may have a significant negative effect on children's mental and physical health. Physical, nutritional, and psychosocial factors that promote obesity in children during this special situation complementarily contribute to an unprecedented obesogenic environment. Large-scale quarantine and home confinement will impose new and unfamiliar stressors on children, thereby worsening the childhood obesity epidemic. Most importantly, adverse childhood events resulting from a predicted increase in domestic violence within the next few months will significantly contribute to this concern. The scenario presented in this review is of paramount public health importance and must be considered during future pandemic planning. Involved stakeholders, including governments, schools, and families, must make all possible efforts to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on childhood obesity.

How Consumers Spend and Distribute Money Tainted by Anger

  • PARK, Hyun Young
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: Anger has become one of the dominantly experienced emotions in recent years, particularly under the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering the critical role that anger plays in consumers' lives, the present research examines how feeling angry about money influences consumers' spending and money distribution decisions. Research design and methodology. Three experiments were conducted using different emotion induction methods (i.e., dictator game, autobiographical recall, and scenario). Results. Feeling angry about money decreased pro-social spending (i.e., less money distribution to the others), but it did not affect virtuous or utilitarian spending for the self-unlike past finding on negative feelings that increased utilitarian spending. Furthermore, whereas anger-tainted money decreased pro-social spending of that money, guilt-tainted money increased pro-social spending. However, the effects of guilt versus anger were not completely symmetrical. The antagonistic effect of anger was diffusive across spending on distant and close others, whereas the pro-social effect of guilt was limited to distant others. Conclusions: These findings help policy makers and financial institutions forecast how money will be distributed or circulated when it is likely to be dampened by anger under the pandemic. They also highlight the importance of examining the effects of discrete emotions (e.g., anger vs. guilt) beyond valence.

Conflicts of Interest in the Research Publication Process-A Case Study Approach

  • KANG, Eungoo;HWANG, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Research and Publication Ethics
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: A conflict of interest is defined broadly as a scenario in which one's responsibilities and self-interest collide in a manner that has a significant probability of corrupting one's discernments, motivations, actions, desires, values, and judgments. This study aims to investigate various cases of conflict of interest. Research design, data and methodology: Our study used the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) to identify resources. The eligibility of selected prior studies thoroughly was investigated whether they are suitable for the topic of present study. Finally, we collected total 15 previous studies published between 2000 and 2021. Results: Research findings indicate that there are three main cases that might cause a conflict of interest and mandated research ethics education might provide researchers with the tools to identify and battle the temptations and biases provided by conflicts of interest. Researchers could likely be better prepared for conflicts of interest if they investigated the moral difficulties associated with them in advance. Conclusions: Researchers might evade deliberate or unconscious detriment of duties, and also objectivity loss because of the siren song of self-interest by escaping situations whereby they may be tempted to shirk their responsibilities, not to remark the hassles of unveiling conflicts.

TREE FORM CLASSIFICATION OF OWNER PAYMENT BEHAVIOUR

  • Hanh Tran;David G. Carmichael;Maria C. A. Balatbat
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.526-533
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    • 2011
  • Contracting is said to be a high-risk business, and a common cause of business failure is related to cash management. A contractor's financial viability depends heavily on how actual payments from an owner deviate from those defined in the contract. The paper presents a method for contractors to evaluate the punctuality and fullness of owner payments based on historical behaviour. It does this by classifying owners according to their late and incomplete payment practices. A payment profile of an owner, in the form of aging claims submitted by the contractor, is used as a basis for the method's development. Regression trees are constructed based on three predictor variables, namely, the average time to payment following a claim, the total amount ending up being paid within a certain period and the level of variability in claim response times. The Tree package in the publicly available R program is used for building the trees. The analysis is particularly useful for contractors at the pre-tendering stage, when contractors predict the likely payment scenario in an upcoming project. Based on the method, the contractor can decide whether to tender or not tender, or adjust its financial preparations accordingly. The paper is a contribution in risk management applied to claim and dispute resolution practice. It is argued that by contractors having a better understanding of owner payment behaviour, fewer disputes and contractor business failures will occur.

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MFM-based alarm root-cause analysis and ranking for nuclear power plants

  • Mengchu Song;Christopher Reinartz;Xinxin Zhang;Harald P.-J. Thunem;Robert McDonald
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.4408-4425
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    • 2023
  • Alarm flood due to abnormality propagation is the most difficult alarm overloading problem in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Root-cause analysis is suggested to help operators in understand emergency events and plant status. Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) has been extensively applied in alarm management by virtue of the capability of explaining causal dependencies among alarms. However, there has never been a technique that can identify the actual root cause for complex alarm situations. This paper presents an automated root-cause analysis system based on MFM. The causal reasoning algorithm is first applied to identify several possible root causes that can lead to massive alarms. A novel root-cause ranking algorithm can subsequently be used to isolate the most likely faults from the other root-cause candidates. The proposed method is validated on a pressurized water reactor (PWR) simulator at HAMMLAB. The results show that the actual root cause is accurately identified for every tested operating scenario. The automation of root-cause identification and ranking affords the opportunity of real-time alarm analysis. It is believed that the study can further improve the situation awareness of operators in the alarm flooding situation.

To Donate or Not: Effects of Price Difference and Reference Groups on Intention to Purchase a Donation Option (소비자는 기부를 선택할까: 가격차이, 준거집단이 기부옵션 선택에 미치는 영향력 검증)

  • Sei Jin Park;Sojin Jung
    • Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.239-250
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to investigate the factors influencing donation intention when the option to donate is presented during a purchase decision. Through an experimental design, we examined how price differences and reference group effects impact donation intention. We created stimuli with three price difference conditions (high, low, and control) and two levels of referent power (high and low), and involved 480 Korean consumer panels in the experiments. After controlling for psychological reactance levels, a two-way MANCOVA confirmed the main effects of price difference and referent power but found no interaction effect between these variables. Notably, consumers were less likely to feel guilty for not selecting the donation option when its price was slightly higher than that of the non-donation option, compared to the scenario where the prices were the same. Additionally, consumers exposed to high referent power experienced greater irritation, guilt, and shame if they did not choose the donation option compared to the low referent power group. Multiple regression results showed that guilt significantly influenced the intention to purchase a donation option, whereas irritation and shame did not. These findings suggest that understanding situational factors such as price differences and referent power can help develop effective marketing strategies and encourage voluntary participation in donations.

An Analysis of the Impact of International Soybean Price Changes on Domestic Soybean Market and Soybean Food Self-Sufficiency Rate: A Partial Equilibrium Model Approach (국제 대두가격 변동이 국내 식용 콩 시장과 콩 식량자급률에 미치는 영향 분석: 부분균형모형을 이용한 접근)

  • Kim, Gwon-Hyung;Kim, In-Seck
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.137-159
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    • 2024
  • Major crop prices have been raised significantly in recent years by COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and weather-induced reductions in South American soybean production by unfavoured weather in 2022. Rising international crop prices are likely to destabilize food security in South Korea, which is highly dependent on foreign crops. This study analyzed the impact of soybean import price changes on the domestic soybean market and soybean food self-sufficiency rate from 2024 to 2029 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. According to the scenario analysis results, if the import prices rise by 10% compared to the baseline, the soybean food self-sufficiency rate would increase by 1.33% in 2024, but it is expected to decrease to -0.58% in 2029 due to the continuous decrease in production. The results of this study are expected to be used as valuable information for policy authorities in establishing policies related to improving food self-sufficiency.

Economic Damage of Sea-level Rise and The Optimal Rate of Coastal Protection in the Korean Eastern Southern Areas (기후변화에 따른 해수면 상승의 경제적 피해비용 및 최적 해안 방어비율 추정 -동·남해안 지역을 대상으로-)

  • Min, Dongki;Cho, Kwangwoo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.21-42
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    • 2014
  • In this study, we are estimating the economic effects of the rising sea level due to the climate change in the Korean Eastern and Southern coastal areas. Using disaggregated regional data, we also estimate the optimal rate of coastal protection. We use FUND (The Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution) in order to obtain estimates of the expected inundation ratios by geographical district. Our estimates suggest that in Busan the ratio of inundated land to total territory will likely constitute 3.19% by 2100, while the number in Gangwon-do province is estimated to be lower at only 0.1%. We estimate the associated economic damage to differ by geographical district with the economically active regions such as e.g. Busan and Ulsan cities, or the Gyeongsang-nam-do province, likely to sustain relatively more damage. In Busan and Ulsan where the coastal line is relatively short and the size of expected economic damage is rather high, we estimate the optimal rate of coastal protection to be at the level of 98% and 92%, respectively. In the Kyeongsang-nam-do area that is also likely to suffer a substantial economic damage due to the inundation, we suggest the optimal ratio of coastal protection to be set at the level of 78%~79%. In contrast, in the Kangwon-do province where the expected economic damage is estimated to be low, the optimal rate of coastal protection is estimated to be around 43%, depending on the scenario.