• Title/Summary/Keyword: level exceedance probability

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Exceedance probability as a tool to evaluate the wind environment of urban areas

  • Bady, Mahmoud;Kato, Shinsuke;Ishida, Yoshihiro;Huang, Hong;Takahashi, Takeo
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.455-478
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    • 2008
  • The present study aims to estimate the wind ventilation performance for pedestrian level domains from the air quality point of view. Three typical models of a dense urban area were considered and numerically simulated in order to examine the effects of the geometry of such models on wind flow characteristics, which in turn affect the air quality, within the pedestrian domain of a street canyon located within this area. The calculated flow fields were employed to estimate the exceedance probabilities within the study domain using a new approach: air exchange rate within the domain. The study has been applied to nine cities in Japan: Tokyo, Osaka, Sapporo, Niigata, Fukuoka, Nagoya, Sendai, Yokohama, and Kyoto, based on their mean wind velocity data. The results demonstrated that the exceedance probability analysis of the pedestrian wind environment could be a valuable tool during the design stage of inhabited areas for the evaluation of pollutant-removal efficiency by the applied wind. Also, the calculated probabilities demonstrated substantial dependence on both the geometry of building arrays and the wind conditions of the nine cities.

Reliability and code level

  • Kasperski, Michael;Geurts, Chris
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.295-307
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    • 2005
  • The paper describes the work of the IAWE Working Group WBG - Reliability and Code Level, one of the International Codification Working Groups set up at ICWE10 in Copenhagen. The following topics are covered: sources of uncertainties in the design wind load, appropriate design target values for the exceedance probability of the design wind load for different structural classes with different consequences of a failure, yearly exceedance probability of the design wind speed and specification of the design aerodynamic coefficient for different design purposes. The recommendations from the working group are summarized at the end of the paper.

Seismic performance-based optimal design approach for structures equipped with SATMDs

  • Mohebbi, Mohtasham;Bakhshinezhad, Sina
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2022
  • This paper introduces a novel, rigorous, and efficient probabilistic methodology for the performance-based optimal design (PBOD) of semi-active tuned mass damper (SATMD) for seismically excited nonlinear structures. The proposed methodology is consistent with the modern performance-based earthquake engineering framework and aims to design reliable control systems. To this end, an optimization problem has been defined which considers the parameters of control systems as design variables and minimization of the probability of exceeding a targeted structural performance level during the lifetime as an objective function with a constraint on the failure probability of stroke length damage state associated with mass damper mechanism. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a numerical example of performance analysis of an eight-story nonlinear shear building frame with hysteretic bilinear behavior. The SATMD with variable stiffness and damping have been designed separately with different mass ratios. Their performance has been compared with that of uncontrolled structure and the structure controlled with passive TMD in terms of probabilistic demand curves, response hazard curves, fragility curves, and exceedance probability of performance levels during the lifetime. Numerical results show the effectiveness, simplicity, and reliability of the proposed PBOD method in designing SATMD with variable stiffness and damping for the nonlinear frames where they have reduced the exceedance probability of the structure up to 49% and 44%, respectively.

Seismic microzonation of Kolkata

  • Shiuly, Amit;Sahu, R.B.;Mandal, Saroj
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.125-144
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents the probabilistic seismic microzonation of densely populated Kolkata city, situated on the world's largest delta island with very soft alluvial soil deposit. At first probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Kolkata city was carried out at bedrock level and then ground motion amplification due to sedimentary deposit was computed using one dimensional (1D) wave propagation analysis SHAKE2000. Different maps like fundamental frequency, amplification at fundamental frequency, peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground displacement (PGD), maximum response spectral acceleration at different time period bands are developed for variety of end users, structural and geotechnical engineers, land use planners, emergency managers and awareness of general public. The probabilistically predicted PGA at bedrock level is 0.12 g for 50% exceedance in 50 years and maximum PGA at surface level it varies from 0.095 g to 0.18 g for same probability of exceedance. The scenario of simulated ground motion revealed that Kolkata city is very much prone to damage during earthquake.

Interference Probability Calculation of Frequency Sharing Between Non-Geostationary-Satellite Orbit Mobile Earth Station and Land Mobile Station (비정지궤도 위성이동지구국과 육상이동간의 주파수 공유에 따른 간섭 확률 계산)

  • 박지웅;최재훈;김희동
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.1807-1816
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    • 1998
  • The interference probability between non-geostationary-statellite orbit mobile station is calculated when the two systems are sharing the frquency band below 1 GHz. The probability density function of a mobile earth station(MES) is calculated based on the established propagation model and then, a probability of exceeding the threshold level is derived. By changing the average transimission per unit time of total MSS(Moblie satellite service) area and the ratio of transmitters for specific area, we obtain the average transmission per unit time for the area under consideration. From this, the exceedance probability for the given pfd threshold level is evaluated. The exceedance probability is increased as the average transmissio per unit time and ratio become larger. Also the effect of filter isolation between channels is accounted for.

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Performance Based Seismic Design State of Practice, 2012 Manila, Philippines

  • Sy, Jose A.;Anwar, Naveed;HtutAung, Thaung;Rayamajhi, Deepak
    • International Journal of High-Rise Buildings
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.203-209
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this paper is to present the state of practice being used in the Philippines for the performance-based seismic design of reinforced concrete tall buildings. Initially, the overall methodology follows "An Alternative Procedure for Seismic Analysis and Design of Tall Buildings Located in the Los Angeles Region, 2008", which was developed by Los Angeles Tall Buildings Structural Design Council. After 2010, the design procedure follows "Tall Buildings Initiative, Guidelines for Performance-Based Seismic Design of Tall Buildings, 2010" developed by Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER). After the completion of preliminary design in accordance with code-based design procedures, the performance of the building is checked for serviceable behaviour for frequent earthquakes (50% probability of exceedance in 30 years, i.e,, with 43-year return period) and very low probability of collapse under extremely rare earthquakes (2% of probability of exceedance in 50 years, i.e., 2475-year return period). In the analysis, finite element models with various complexity and refinements are used in different types of analyses using, linear-static, multi-mode pushover, and nonlinear-dynamic analyses, as appropriate. Site-specific seismic input ground motions are used to check the level of performance under the potential hazard, which is likely to be experienced. Sample project conducted using performance-based seismic design procedures is also briefly presented.

Seismic performance of RC buildings subjected to past earthquakes in Turkey

  • Inel, Mehmet;Meral, Emrah
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.483-503
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to evaluate seismic performance of existing low and mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings by comparing their displacement capacities and displacement demands under selected ground motions experienced in Turkey as well as demand spectrum provided in 2007 Turkish Earthquake Code for design earthquake with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for soil class Z3. It should be noted that typical residential buildings are designed according to demand spectrum of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Three RC building sets as 2-, 4- and 7-story, are selected to represent reference low-and mid-rise buildings located in the high seismicity region of Turkey. The selected buildings are typical beam-column RC frame buildings with no shear walls. The outcomes of detailed field and archive investigation including approximately 500 real residential RC buildings established building models to reflect existing building stock. Total of 72 3-D building models are constructed from the reference buildings to include the effects of some properties such as structural irregularities, concrete strength, seismic codes, structural deficiencies, transverse reinforcement detailing, and number of story on seismic performance of low and mid-rise RC buildings. Capacity curves of building sets are obtained by nonlinear static analyses conducted in two principal directions, resulting in 144 models. The inelastic dynamic characteristics are represented by "equivalent" Single-Degree-of- Freedom (ESDOF) systems using obtained capacity curves of buildings. Nonlinear time history analysis is used to estimate displacement demands of representative building models idealized with (ESDOF) systems subjected to the selected ground motion records from past earthquakes in Turkey. The results show that the significant number of pre-modern code 4- and 7-story buildings exceeds LS performance level while the modern code 4- and 7-story buildings have better performances. The findings obviously indicate the existence of destructive earthquakes especially for 4- and 7-story buildings. Significant improvements in the performance of the buildings per modern code are also obvious in the study. Almost one third of pre-modern code buildings is exceeding LS level during records in the past earthquakes. This observation also supports the building damages experienced in the past earthquake events in Turkey.

Seismic Collapse Risk for Non-Ductile Reinforced Concrete Buildings According to Seismic Design Categories (비연성 철근콘크리트 건물의 내진설계범주에 따른 붕괴 위험성 평가)

  • Kim, Minji;Han, Sang Whan;Kim, Taeo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.161-168
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    • 2021
  • Existing old reinforced concrete buildings could be vulnerable to earthquakes because they were constructed without satisfying seismic design and detail requirements. In current seismic design standards, the target collapse probability for a given Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) ground-shaking hazard is defined as 10% for ordinary buildings. This study aims to estimate the collapse probabilities of a three-story, old, reinforced concrete building designed by only considering gravity loads. Four different seismic design categories (SDC), A, B, C, and D, are considered. This study reveals that the RC building located in the SDC A region satisfies the target collapse probability. However, buildings located in SDC B, C, and D regions do not meet the target collapse probability. Since the degree of exceedance of the target probability increases with an increase in the SDC level, it is imminent to retrofit non-ductile RC buildings similar to the model building. It can be confirmed that repair and reinforcement of old reinforced concrete buildings are required.

Seismic Response of Multiple Span Prestressed Concrete Girder Bridges in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (New Madrid 지진대의 다경간 PSC 교량의 지진거동)

  • Choi, Eun-Soo;Kim, Hak-Soo;Kim, Kwang-Il;Cho, Byung-Wan
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.10 no.5 s.51
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2006
  • This paper evaluates the seismic response of multi-span prestressed concrete girder bridges typically found in the New Madrid Seismic Zone region of the central United States. Using detailed nonlinear analytical models and synthetic ground motion records for Memphis, TN, nonlinear response history analyses are performed for two levels of ground motion: 10% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years, and 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years. The results show that the bridge performance is very good fur the 10% PE in 50 years ground motion level. However, the performance for the 2% PE in 50 years ground motion is not so good because it results in highly inelastic behavior of the bridge. Impact between decks results in large ductility demands on the columns, and failure of the bearings that support the girders. It is found that making the superstructure continuous, which is commonly performed for reducing dead load moments and maintenance requirements, results in significant improvement in the seismic response of prestressed concrete girder bridges.

Development and Application of Coliform Load Duration Curve for the Geumho River (금호강 유역의 대장균 부하지속곡선 개발 및 적용)

  • Jung, Kang-Young;Im, Tae-Hyo;Kim, Gyeong-Hoon;Lee, In-Jung;Yoon, Jong-Su;Heo, Seong-Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.890-895
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    • 2012
  • Duration curves describe the percentage of time that a certain water quality (total/fecal coliform (=TC/FC)) or discharge is exceeded. The curves methodology are usually based on daily records and are useful in estimating how many days per year and event will be exceeded. The technique was further applied to estimated TC/FC loading to the Geumho River, using the daily mean flow rate and TC/FC concentration data during January, 2001 and December, 2011 for the Geumhogang6 (=Seongseo water level station) where an automated monitoring station is located in Gangchang-bridge. Low flow of the Seongseo (=11.1 cms) was equivalent to 75.3% on an exceedance probability scale. Load Duration curve for TC/FC loading at the Seongseo was constructed. Standard load duration curve was constructed with the water quality criteria for class III (TC/FC concentration = 5000/1000 CFU/ 100 mL). By plotting TC/FC observed load duration curve with standard load duration curve, it could be revealed that water quality do not meet the desired water quality for 68.8/11.2% on an exceedance probability scale. IF linear correlation between flow rate and coliform concentration is assumed, it can be interpreted that water quality exceed desired criteria when daily average flow rate is over 11.9/109.9 cms.