• Title/Summary/Keyword: lead-lag relationship

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An Analysis on Inter-Regional Price Linkage of Petroleum Products (석유제품 가격의 지역 간 연계성 분석)

  • Song, Hyojun;Lee, Hahn Shik
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 2019
  • This paper investigates the relationship between the oil price and the major petroleum products prices at the trading hubs such as Singapore, North West Europe and the US New York Harbor. We focus on the lead-lag relationship between the weekly petroleum prices from 2009 to 2016 based on the vector error correction model. We find that the oil price leads the prices of petroleum products in the long term, while there is bidirectional causality in the short term. On the other hand, prices of petroleum products in regions with high import dependency, such as Europe gas oil and jet fuel price, are exogenous in the long term. We also present evidence that prices of petroleum products in region with a large global-market share lead prices in other regions. However, if the region is in an over-production situation and low industry concentration, it may lose its price leadership due to intense competition. The result in this study can provide a useful information to petroleum refining companies in forecasting fluctuations of product price, and hence in planning their regional arbitrage trading activities.

Characteristics of the Simulated ENSO in CGCM (대기-해양 접합 모델에서 모사한 ENSO의 특징)

  • Moon, Byung-Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.343-356
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    • 2007
  • This paper explored the characteristics of the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the equatorial Pacific by analyzing the simulated data from a newly coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The CGCM simulates well the realistic ENSO variability as well as the mean climatologies including SST, seasonal cycle, precipitation, and subsurface structures. It is argued that the zonal gradient of SST in the equatorial Pacific is responsible for the over-energetic SST variability near the equatorial western boundary in the model. This variability could also be related to the strong westward propagation of SST anomalies which resulted from the enhanced the zonal advection feedback. The simple two-strip model supports this by sensitivity tests. Analysis of the relationship between zonal mean thermocline depth and NINO3 SST index suggested that the ENSO variability is controlled by the recharge-discharge oscillator of the model. The lead-lag regression result reveals that heat buildup process in the western equatorial Pacific associated with the increase of the barrier layer thickness (BLT) is a precedent condition for El $Ni\widetilde{n}o$ to develop.

The Relationship between Apartment Price Index and Naver Trend Index (아파트가격지수와 네이버 트렌드지수 간의 연관성)

  • Yoo, Han-Soo
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2022
  • This paper investigates empirically the lead-lag relation between the 'apartment price index' and 'Internet search volume'. This study uses Naver Trend Index as a proxy for Internet search volume. An increase in Internet search volume on the apartment price index indicates an increase in people's attention to an apartment. Different from previous studies exploring the relation between 'the released price index of the apartment' and 'Naver Trend Index', this study investigates the relation of the Naver Trend Index with 'the fundamental price component of an apartment' and 'the transitory price component of an apartment', respectively. The results of the Granger causality test reveal that there are bidirectional Granger causalities between the 'released price' and Naver Trend Index. In addition, the 'fundamental price component of an apartment' and Naver Trend Index have a feedback relation, while 'the transitory price component of an apartment' Granger causes the Naver Trend Index uni-directionally. The impulse response function analysis indicates that the shock of apartment prices increases Naver Trend Index in the first month. Overall, The close relationship between apartment prices and Naver Trend Index suggests that increases in the movement of apartment prices are positively associated with public attention on the apartment market.

An Analysis for Urban Competitiveness of Global Cities & 7 Metropolitan Korean Cities using Oxford Economics Data (우리나라 7대 광역시와 세계 770개 도시 경쟁력 비교분석 - Oxford Economics 자료에 근거한 도시경쟁력 -)

  • Cho, Jae Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.3-17
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    • 2017
  • This study ranks by developing an urban competitiveness index of major global cities, including seven cities in Korea using data from the Global Cities Forecast (2013) provided by Oxford Economics. The City competitiveness index is selected from 18 indicators including scale index, ratio index, growth rate index while Gini coefficient is used for distribution index. In order to analyze the relationship between the competitiveness index and the distribution index, we use the LOGIT panel regression model. As a result, the increase in income inequality (Gini coefficient) has a negative effect on the economic growth rate in 5-year time lag shown statistically significant. We have compiled global rankings of 770 city competitiveness based upon 19 indicators by combining the global competitiveness index and the distribution index. The trend of rank shows that 7 Metropolitan Korean Cities are expected to decline substantially over the period. In particular, Seoul ranked $59^{th}$ in 2010 and $74^{th}$ in 2015. Its ranking is expected to be decline to $185^{th}$ in 2030. The declining competitiveness of Korean cities is expected to lead to a weakening of Korea's national competitiveness in the long run. Accordingly, it is imperative to identify problems and seek strategic plans to secure global urban competitiveness.

Study on the Causality and Lead-lag relationship between Size of House sub market and the Consumer Sentiment Survey (아파트 규모별 하위시장과 소비심리지수의 선행성 및 인과성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Gu-Hoi;Kim, Ki-Hong;Lee, Joo-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.682-691
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the causal and precedence relationships between the housing sub-market and the results of a consumer sentiment survey about the housing market. This study investigates the relationships between the survey results and an apartment deal price index by size and bidding price rate in apartment auctions by extending research related to consumer sentiment surveys. We surveyed the Seoul Metropolitan Area and analyzed the results using a unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, and cross-correlation test. It was confirmed that causality exists between the survey results and apartment deal price index by size and bidding price rate, and it was also confirmed that there are correlation and precedence relationships between them.

Role of Citrate Synthase in Acetate Utilization and Protection from Stress-Induced Apoptosis

  • Lee, Yong-Joo;Kang, Hong-Yong;Maeng, Pil Jae
    • Proceedings of the Microbiological Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.39-41
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    • 2008
  • The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been shown to contain three isoforms of citrate synthase (CS). The mitochondrial CS, Cit1, catalyzes the first reaction of the TCA cycle, i.e., condensation of acetyl-CoA and oxaloacetate to form citrate [1]. The peroxisomal CS, Cit2, participates in the glyoxylate cycle [2]. The third CS is a minor mitochondrial isofunctional enzyme, Cit3, and related to glycerol metabolism. However, the level of its intracellular activity is low and insufficient for metabolic needs of cells [3]. It has been reported that ${\Delta}cit1$ strain is not able to grow with acetate as a sole carbon source on either rich or minimal medium and that it shows a lag in attaining parental growth rates on nonfermentable carbon sources [2, 4, 5]. Cells of ${\Delta}cit2$, on the other hand, have similar growth phenotype as wild-type on various carbon sources. Thus, the biochemical basis of carbon metabolism in the yeast cells with deletion of CIT1 or CIT2 gene has not been clearly addressed yet. In the present study, we focused our efforts on understanding the function of Cit2 in utilizing $C_2$ carbon sources and then found that ${\Delta}cit1$ cells can grow on minimal medium containing $C_2$ carbon sources, such as acetate. We also analyzed that the characteristics of mutant strains defective in each of the genes encoding the enzymes involved in TCA and glyoxylate cycles and membrane carriers for metabolite transport. Our results suggest that citrate produced by peroxisomal CS can be utilized via glyoxylate cycle, and moreover that the glyoxylate cycle by itself functions as a fully competent metabolic pathway for acetate utilization in S. cerevisiae. We also studied the relationship between Cit1 and apoptosis in S. cerevisiae [6]. In multicellular organisms, apoptosis is a highly regulated process of cell death that allows a cell to self-degrade in order for the body to eliminate potentially threatening or undesired cells, and thus is a crucial event for common defense mechanisms and in development [7]. The process of cellular suicide is also present in unicellular organisms such as yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae [8]. When unicellular organisms are exposed to harsh conditions, apoptosis may serve as a defense mechanism for the preservation of cell populations through the sacrifice of some members of a population to promote the survival of others [9]. Apoptosis in S. cerevisiae shows some typical features of mammalian apoptosis such as flipping of phosphatidylserine, membrane blebbing, chromatin condensation and margination, and DNA cleavage [10]. Yeast cells with ${\Delta}cit1$ deletion showed a temperature-sensitive growth phenotype, and displayed a rapid loss in viability associated with typical apoptotic hallmarks, i.e., ROS accumulation, nuclear fragmentation, DNA breakage, and phosphatidylserine translocation, when exposed to heat stress. Upon long-term cultivation, ${\Delta}cit1$ cells showed increased potentials for both aging-induced apoptosis and adaptive regrowth. Activation of the metacaspase Yca1 was detected during heat- or aging-induced apoptosis in ${\Delta}cit1$ cells, and accordingly, deletion of YCA1 suppressed the apoptotic phenotype caused by ${\Delta}cit1$ mutation. Cells with ${\Delta}cit1$ deletion showed higher tendency toward glutathione (GSH) depletion and subsequent ROS accumulation than the wild-type, which was rescued by exogenous GSH, glutamate, or glutathione disulfide (GSSG). Beside Cit1, other enzymes of TCA cycle and glutamate dehydrogenases (GDHs) were found to be involved in stress-induced apoptosis. Deletion of the genes encoding the TCA cycle enzymes and one of the three GDHs, Gdh3, caused increased sensitivity to heat stress. These results lead us to conclude that GSH deficiency in ${\Delta}cit1$ cells is caused by an insufficient supply of glutamate necessary for biosynthesis of GSH rather than the depletion of reducing power required for reduction of GSSG to GSH.

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Study on Lead-Lag Relationship between Individual Spot and Futures of Communication Service Industries: Focused on KT and SK Telecom (통신서비스 업종 개별주식 현물과 선물 간 선도-지연 효과: 한국통신과 SK텔레콤을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Joo Il
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2015
  • We examine the information transmission between the KT Spot and the KT Futures Index, the SK Telecom Spot and the SK Telecom Futures Index, based on the returns data offered by the Korea Exchange. The data includes daily return data from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2014. Utilizing a dynamic analytical tool-the VAR model, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition have been implemented. The results of the analysis are as follows. Firstly, results of Granger Causality test suggests the existence of mutual causality the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index precede and have explanatory power the KT Spot and the SK Telecom Spot However the results also identified a greater causality and explanatory power of the KT Spot and the SK Telecom Spot over the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. Secondly, the results of impulse response function suggest that the KT Futures Index show immediate response to the KT Spot and are influenced by till time 4. From time 2, the impact gradually disappears. Also the SKT Futures Index show immediate response to the SKT Spot and are influenced by till time 4. From time 2, the impact gradually disappears. Lastly, the variance decomposition analysis shows that the changes of return of the KT Spot and SKT Spot are dependent on those of the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. This implies that returns on the KT Spot and SKT Spot have a significant influence over returns on the KT Futures Index and the SK Telecom Futures Index. It contributes to the understanding of market price formation function through analysis of detached the KT Spot and the KT Futures Index, the SK Telecom Spot and the SK Telecom Futures Index.