• Title/Summary/Keyword: landslide prediction

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A Review of Quantitative Landslide Susceptibility Analysis Methods Using Physically Based Modelling (물리사면모델을 활용한 정량적 산사태 취약성 분석기법 리뷰)

  • Park, Hyuck-Jin;Lee, Jung-Hyun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2022
  • Every year landslides cause serious casualties and property damages around the world. As the accurate prediction of landslides is important to reduce the fatalities and economic losses, various approaches have been developed to predict them. Prediction methods can be divided into landslide susceptibility analysis, landslide hazard analysis and landslide risk analysis according to the type of the conditioning factors, the predicted level of the landslide dangers, and whether the expected consequence cased by landslides were considered. Landslide susceptibility analyses are mainly based on the available landslide data and consequently, they predict the likelihood of landslide occurrence by considering factors that can induce landslides and analyzing the spatial distribution of these factors. Various qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Recently, quantitative susceptibility analyses have predominantly employed the physically based model due to high predictive capacity. This is because the physically based approaches use physical slope model to analyze slope stability regardless of prior landslide occurrence. This approach can also reproduce the physical processes governing landslide occurrence. This review examines physically based landslide susceptibility analysis approaches.

Studies on Development of Prediction Model of Landslide Hazard and Its Utilization (산지사면(山地斜面)의 붕괴위험도(崩壞危險度) 예측(豫測)모델의 개발(開發) 및 실용화(實用化) 방안(方案))

  • Ma, Ho-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.83 no.2
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    • pp.175-190
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    • 1994
  • In order to get fundamental information for prediction of landslide hazard, both forest and site factors affecting slope stability were investigated in many areas of active landslides. Twelve descriptors were identified and quantified to develop the prediction model by multivariate statistical analysis. The main results obtained could be summarized as follows : The main factors influencing a large scale of landslide were shown in order of precipitation, age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, position of slope, vegetation, stream order, vertical slope, bed rock, soil depth and aspect. According to partial correlation coefficient, it was shown in order of age group of forest trees, precipitation, soil texture, bed rock, slope gradient, position of slope, altitude, vertical slope, stream order, vegetation, soil depth and aspect. The main factors influencing a landslide occurrence were shown in order of age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, precipitation, vertical slope, stream order, bed rock and soil depth. Two prediction models were developed by magnitude and frequency of landslide. Particularly, a prediction method by magnitude of landslide was changed the score for the convenience of use. If the total store of the various factors mark over 9.1636, it is evaluated as a very dangerous area. The mean score of landslide and non-landslide group was 0.1977 and -0.1977, and variance was 0.1100 and 0.1250, respectively. The boundary value between the two groups related to slope stability was -0.02, and its predicted rate of discrimination was 73%. In the score range of the degree of landslide hazard based on the boundary value of discrimination, class A was 0.3132 over, class B was 0.3132 to -0.1050, class C was -0.1050 to -0.4196, class D was -0.4195 below. The rank of landslide hazard could be divided into classes A, B, C and D by the boundary value. In the number of slope, class A was 68, class B was 115, class C was 65, and class D was 52. The rate of landslide occurrence in class A and class B was shown at the hige prediction of 83%. Therefore, dangerous areas selected by the prediction method of landslide could be mapped for land-use planning and criterion of disaster district. And also, it could be applied to an administration index for disaster prevention.

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Development of Prediction Technique of Landslide Hazard Area in Korea National Parks (국립공원의 산사태 발생 위험지역 예측기법의 개발)

  • Ma, Ho-Seop;Jeong, Won-Ok;Park, Jin-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.97 no.3
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    • pp.326-331
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    • 2008
  • This study was carried out to analyze the characteristics of each factors by using the quantification theory(I) for prediction of landslide hazard area. The results obtained from this study were summarized as follows; The stepwise regression analysis between landslide sediment ($m^3$ ) and environmental factors, factors affecting landslide sediment ($m^3$ ) were high in order of mixed (forest type), < 15 cm(soil depth), 801~1,200 m (altitude), $31{\sim}40^{\circ}$ (slope gradient), 46 cm < (soil depth), 1,201 m < (altitude) and s(aspect). According to the range, it was shown in order of soil depth (0.3784), altitude (0.2876), forest type (0.2409), slope gradient (0.1728) and aspect (0.1681). The prediction of landslide hazard area was estimated by score table of each category. The extent of prediction score was 0 to 1.2478, and middle score was 0.6239. Class I was over 1.1720, class II was 0.7543 to 0.1719, class III was 0.4989 to 0.7542 and class IV was below 0.4988.

Construction of NCAM-LAMP Precipitation and Soil Moisture Database to Support Landslide Prediction (산사태 예측을 위한 NCAM-LAMP 강수 및 토양수분 DB 구축)

  • So, Yun-Yeong;Lee, Su-Jung;Choi, Sung-Won;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.152-163
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    • 2020
  • The present study introduces a procedure to prepare and manage a high-resolution rainfall and soil moisture (SM) database in the LAMP prediction system, especially for landslide researchers. The procedure also includes converting the data into spatial resolution suitable for their interest regions following proper map projection methods. The LAMP model precipitation and SM data are quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated to identify the model prediction characteristics using the ERA5 reanalysis precipitation and observed 10m depth SM data. A detailed process of converting LAMP Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) output data for 10m horizontal resolution is described in a step-wise manner, providing technical convenience for users to easily convert NetCDF data from the WRF model into TIF data in ArcGIS. The converted data can be viewed and downloaded via the LAMP website (http://df.ncam.kr/lamp/index.do) of the National Center for AgroMeteorology. The constructed database will contribute to monitoring and prediction of landslide risk prior to landslide response steps and should be data quality controlled by more observation data.

Study on Application of Topographic Position Index for Prediction of the Landslide Occurrence (산사태 발생지 예측을 위한 Topographic Position Index의 적용성 연구)

  • Woo, Choong-Shik;Lee, Chang-Woo;Jeong, Yongho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2008
  • The objective of the study is 10 know the relation of landslide occurrence with using TPI (Topographic Position Index) in the Pyungchang County. Total 659 landslide scars were detected from aerial photographs. To analyze TPI, 100m SN (Small-Neighborhood) TPI map, 500m LN (Large-Neighborhood) TPI map, and slope map were generated from the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data which are made from 1 : 5,000 digital topographic map. 10 classes clustered by regular condition after overlapping each TPI maps and slope map. Through this process, we could make landform classification map. Because it is only to classify landform, 7 classes were finally regrouped by the slope angle information of landslide occurrence detected from aerial photography analysis. The accuracy of reclassified map is about 46%.

Landslide Detection and Landslide Susceptibility Mapping using Aerial Photos and Artificial Neural Networks (항공사진을 이용한 산사태 탐지 및 인공신경망을 이용한 산사태 취약성 분석)

  • Oh, Hyun-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2010
  • The aim of this study is to detect landslide using digital aerial photography and apply the landslide to landslide susceptibility mapping by artificial neural network (ANN) and geographic information system (GIS) at Jinbu area where many landslides have occurred in 2006 by typhoon Ewiniar, Bilis and Kaemi. Landslide locations were identified by visual interpretation of aerial photography taken before and after landslide occurrence, and checked in field. For landslide susceptibility mapping, maps of the topography, geology, soil, forest, lineament, and landuse were constructed from the spatial data sets. Using the factors and landslide location and artificial neural network, the relative weight for the each factors was determinated by back-propagation algorithm. As the result, the aspect and slope factor showed higher weight in 1.2-1.5 times than other factors. Then, landslide susceptibility map was drawn using the weights and finally, the map was validated by comparing with landslide locations that were not used directly in the analysis. As the validation result, the prediction accuracy showed 81.44%.

Development of Landslide-Risk Prediction Model thorough Database Construction (데이터베이스 구축을 통한 산사태 위험도 예측식 개발)

  • Lee, Seung-Woo;Kim, Gi-Hong;Yune, Chan-Young;Ryu, Han-Joong;Hong, Seong-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 2012
  • Recently, landslide disasters caused by severe rain storms and typhoons have been frequently reported. Due to the geomorphologic characteristics of Korea, considerable portion of urban area and infrastructures such as road and railway have been constructed near mountains. These infrastructures may encounter the risk of landslide and debris flow. It is important to evaluate the highly risky locations of landslide and to prepare measures for the protection of landslide in the process of construction planning. In this study, a landslide-risk prediction equation is proposed based on the statistical analysis of 423 landslide data set obtained from field surveys, disaster reports on national road, and digital maps of landslide area. Each dataset includes geomorphologic characteristics, soil properties, rainfall information, forest properties and hazard history. The comparison between the result of proposed equation and actual occurrence of landslide shows 92 percent in the accuracy of classification. Since the input for the equation can be provided within short period and low cost, and the results of equation can be easily incorporated with hazard map, the proposed equation can be effectively utilized in the analysis of landslide-risk for large mountainous area.

A Prediction Model of Landslides in the Tertiary Sedimentary Rocks and Volcanic Rocks Area (제3기 퇴적암 및 화산암 분포지의 산사태 예측모델)

  • Chae Byung-Gon;Kim Won-Young;Na Jong-Hwa;Cho Yong-Chan;Kim Kyeong-Su;Lee Choon-Oh
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.14 no.4 s.41
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    • pp.443-450
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    • 2004
  • This study developed a prediction model of debris flow to predict a landslide probability on natural terrain composed of the Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks using a logistic regression analysis. The landslides data were collected around Pohang, Gyeongbuk province where more than 100 landslides were occurred in 1998. Considered with basic characteristics of the logistic regression analysis, field survey and laboratory soil tests were performed for both slided points and not-slided points. The final iufluential factors on landslides were selected as six factors by the logistic regression analysis. The six factors are composed of two topographic factors and four geologic factors. The developed landslide prediction model has more than $90\%$ of prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is possible to make probabilistic and quantitative prediction of landslide occurrence using the developed model in this study area as well as the previously developed model for metamorphic and granitic rocks.

Prediction and development on technics of landslide prospecting by seismic refraction(PS-1) (소형 탄성파탐사기(PS-1)을 이용한 산사태예지기술개발)

  • 김재헌
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.102-108
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    • 1992
  • This study was carried to find out the soil characteristics of landslide site and to develope landslide prediction method by seismic refraction prospecting. For these aims, landslide condition and travel time were investigated at 68 Landslide sites over the country during 1990 to 1991. The results were as follows. 1. The surface of rupture was included mainly in C layer. Its Hardness was less than 3kg / $\textrm{cm}^2$ at the upper pare of landslide. 2. When the profile line length was 20m, the range of travel time was 40 to 90 msec. The travel time did not differ between bedrocks. 3. Refraction distance ranged from 1 to 7m and mean of that was 2.5m. Travel time was increased according to receiving distance without large variance in the refraction distance but that was appeared large variance out of the refraction distance on slope that has shallow soil depth and discontinuous ground surface. Therefore, the spread distance must be shorten to 10-l5m. 4. The seismic velocity at the first layer(layer of rupture) was less than 500m1sec by degree of weathering and the velocity at the second layer decreased in order of Granite> Granitic gneiss >Sedimentary rock. 5. The first layer observed by seismic refraction was contained C layer that has parent material and weathered rocks of hardness 10-20kg/$\textrm{cm}^2$. 6. Among the range of seismic velocity was less than 200m/sec in 63% of the total plots, 200-300m/sec in 34% and 300-500m /sec in 3%. 7. There was a proportional relationship between seismic prospecting soil depth and executive soil depth, and seismic propection soil depth was about 10 to 20cm deeper than the order.

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Landslide Prediction with Angle of Repose Prediction Using 3D Spatial Coordinate System and Drone Image Detection (3차원 공간 좌표 시스템과 드론 영상 검출을 활용한 산사태 안식각 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yong-Ju Chu;Soo-Young Lim;Seung-Yop Lee
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2023
  • Forest fires are representative natural disasters resulting from dramatic global climate change in these modern times. When forest formation is insufficient due to forest damage caused by fire, secondary damages such as landslides occur during the winter thawing period and heavy rains. In most countries, only a limited area is managed as CCTV-centered monitoring systems for forest management. For the landslide prediction, markers containing 3D spatial coordinates were located on the slopes of the danger areas in advance. Then 3D mapping and angle of repose were obtained by periodic drone imaging. The recognition range and angle of view of markers were defined, and a new method for predicting signs of landslides in advance was presented in this study.